.
Q. So. Does SSI take Montero's PCL performance, adjust it for the league, and plan on that?
A. That's what the Times article did, "tipping the cap" to fangraphs dudes for the analysis. Which ran:
I imagine you have grok'ked by now, how SSI feels about the Strat-O-Matic approach to analysis. If Jesus Montero were a Strat-O card, we'd be fine with the above.
.......
Baseball's sooooooo simple, isn't it? Montero's slash line so far this year, that's who he is. "Normalize" it a couple of times -- to edit out his HR's and dock him for the league -- and you have "the best information available."
It ain't like Masahiro Tanaka is going to decide to pitch differently to 235-lb. men than to 165-lb. men, now is it? His most recent slash line, that's the gospel. We tweak off that a few times and bingo, here's the state of the art. :- /
........
That 2-dimensional know-it-all shtick never fails to set Dr. D off, does it? LOL.
.
Q. In what way is Montero NOT a Strat-O card?
A. His problems started when he lost interest in repeating the 11th grade.
.
Q. When did that happen?
A. Montero wiped out AAA at the tender age of 20, whereupon the Yankees sent him back. Montero's chest collapsed, and his stats went backwards. That is my personality, exactly. Send me back to a chat board to write baseball and you will see my perk and gusto disappear.
This type of person, everything has got to be onward and upward; you've got to have something to strive for that sends tinglies down your back. As long as he was skipping grades, Montero was destroying baseball on a Griffey-esque level.
My own approach to Jesus Montero would be to coddle him, get him thinking again that he is the Teacher's Pet.
.
Q. Are you predicting that he'll land with a splash in Seattle?
A. No, I'm predicting that at SOME time you will see Jesus Montero blow away American League pitching. Odds-on, that will be some place else.
.....
Not to blame Z for being crestfallen about Montero's toughness. He's got to feel like he put $20K of family savings on the line at the craps table and threw snake eyes.
But not all sports stars are tough. Some are high-maintenance, and not simply in the sense that they get arrested a lot. Some are melancholy types, easily discouraged types (relative to the high standards in MLB), etc. You get your head cases. Some of them are worth the trouble. Do you think Jesus "Albert Pujols" Montero is in that category?
If I'd pegged Albert Pujols as the comp here, I'd certainly be willing to try a lot of different things to coax Pujols out of him.
.
Q. So the M's are newly confident, or this is a depressing "No Other Moves Available" thing like the Times says?
A. I'm sure that Zduriencik feels like he's grasping at straws here, hoping that the MLB(tm) clubhouse candy bars will pique Montero's interest this time, but not holding his breath about it.
Dr. Detecto feels exactly the same way. Call it 1 chance in 4 that Montero "inexplicably" jells.
Perhaps the Mariners have indeed contemplated Montero's personality further, and have decided to coach Montero per SSI's recommendations. It's quite possible; sports franchises spend lots of time on psych profiles. If so, I know one blogger whose optimism soars. If McClendon is capable of shifting to "attaboy" with Jesus Montero, call it 3 chances in 5 that Montero surprises.
.
Q. What does it cost you to try?
A. ... it costs you the angry message you were trying to send Montero. That's all it costs. But of course you can restore the message at any time, by being standoffish towards him in the locker room, as a manager and GM.
.
Q. Where is Dr. D on the platoon split thing?
A. As James says, platoon splits are mostly a mirage, a short-term illusion. We make way, way too much of them, with a few ask-er-isks on the issue.
In this specific case, it's just that it's so easy for Montero to hit with an extra 0.1 seconds that he can't fail to hit, no matter how disinterested he is or how poor his concentration.
.
Q. How about just rolling our eyes and making Jesus Montero the DH against LH pitching, and not worrying about it?
A. The M's DH this year is hitting .201/.280/.313. Let me read that sentence again.
Willie Bloomquist, who is in the big leagues for his personality and locker full of gloves -- that is not a swipe; Willie earns his $2M -- has a lifetime slash line of .271/.319/.345.
Any reasonable DH'ing would make the 2014 Mariners a much better team.
BABVA,
Dr D
Right before Montero was shipped out (and angrily crushed the PCL for a month and then stopped caring), McClendon said of Montero that "he had the best camp of any of these, physically. He'll be back here soon if he just keeps working hard the way he did this month."
I think McC already grokked that Montero needed a positive message.
In general, splits will even out eventually...or if you can hit lefties you can hit righties some, too.
But that is a general rule. In general, if you can shoot the jumper going to your right, you can shoot it going to your left, too. But that isn't always the case.
Montero hits lefties...well he has a history of mashing lefties. And he's ONLY 24 years old. Ty Kelly, my favorite Tacoma-ite is 25. Heck, Jabari Blash is older than Montero.
I don't care if he is a butterball...he hits lefties.
So DH him against lefties.
I would ex-nay Chavez, as well. But since The Skip doesn't trust Ackley or Gillespie in CF, we will get the pleasure of having Endy stick around for another couple of weeks. Oh joy.
LoMo needs to hit against RHP. I'm not to worried that Montero will het the other side.
moe
Good 'put Matty :- )
There are qualifiers, definitely. A 34-year-old left hand hitter has enough time to read RHP's....
Where I certainly agree witcha Moe, is that *whatever the reason,* Montero can't care so little that he loses the ability to crush a lefty mistake. That's gotta be the lowest common denominator for him: at least using the talent to rebuke lefty mistakes.
As you have continually reminded us, there are a whale of a lot of Mariners who can't.
First, from my shouts just before this article/thread was posted:
Bat571: Conspiracy theory -- they're calling up Montero to showcase him for somebody wanting a DH. The Ms have better options coming (Blash keeps improving, Hart may get back by trade deadline) and this is the beginning of the string-cutting. And, who knows, going to Arlington, he could be a thorn in our side for years, like Cruz was.
Bat571: Crazy thought - Smoak and Montero to Texas for a AA arm (Alex Gonzalez or Luke Jackson) and an A level bat (Lewis Brinson or Ronald Guzman). I guess it would depend on whether Texas wants to salvage some of their season with some power. Smoak has always hit well there and Montero has a career .880 OPS there (vs. .612 at Safeco). ADDENDUM: maybe ask for Keone Kela in addition -- three decent prospects for two young MLB(tm) players?
So, to continue some -- it would be nice if a chastised and newly-responsible-new-daddy Montero does take this opportunity to "jell" and start contributing. My own opinion is that he will and platooning him will not be any issue. But the real chances are probably more to the side he doesn't, or at least doesn't in Safeco.
If he continues to hit ~.600 in Safeco, but hits well on the road, particularly in KC and Houston, I could see the Rangers being quite interested given their problems. in which case, I'd trade him to Texas (and Smoak, too) without regret if we could get some decent prospects back. Even if he hits moderately well, there is an argument for just trading him. Turn the page.
In any case, if Jesus doesn't jell quickly, the Ms will be faced with another Almonte-is-not-hitting-Jones-in-Tacoma-IS kind of question. Jabari Blash in now hitting .231 in AAA after going 2-3 with a walk and a K in today's game. Entering today, he was hitting .221/.302/.489/.791. With todays performance, he's now ~.806 OPS. But like Austin Wilson in Everett last year, the totals disguise the real situation.
In games 1-18 with Tacoma, -- .159/.257/.286/.542 , with 8.1% walks and 32.4% Ks over 74 PAs, along with 40% XBH (.127 ISO)
In games 19-37 with Tacoma, - .296/.367/.676/1.043 with 10.1% walks and 25.3% Ks over 79 PAs, along with 68% XBH (.380 ISO)
And since his K rate has gone, in 6 game increments, from 30.8%, to 43.5%, to 24.0% (but with an .050 BA), to 30.4%, to 25.0%, to 20.8%, it would seem that his eye is "settling in" quite nicely. Like Austin Wilson, there is an unmistakable trend of improvement as he learns the league and what he can do. Interestingly, it appears Blash almost stopped swinging for a few games in late May (and got a lot of called Ks), then started on the current tear with the K rate trending sharply down, while his average and slugging soared.
I am absobloominglutely convinced by these numbers that the right-handed Peguero moniker is misapplied -- this guy takes coaching, learns, improves, and does CONSISTENT damage when he gets in the groove. And I don't believe it is pre-ordained that he will have a low BA - at each level, he has gotten up to the .280-.300 level prior to promotion. This guy has an eye and can hit.
Does this mean I think Blash is ready to take over in RF for the Ms? No. But a few more weeks - another 20 or so games, 80 or so ABs like these last 80, and he'll be HARD to ignore.
In Montero's defense, just after the first month, his wife had a baby. I'm not sure he stopped "caring". I AM sure he's going through some major adjustments in his life.
All human personalities are very complex. What is motivating (or not motivating) Jesus Montero TODAY could be a thousand things. Appreciate the reminder Bat.
I said a few days ago that Blash became real interesting when his K rate dropped below 20%, then he was going to begin to translate to a very interesting MLB game. The guys that skip AAA and do well in the bigs usually hit a bagillion in AA. If you move Blash up now, essentially he's skipped AAA. II think your timeline is pretty dead on Bat. If he's hitting like this at the All-Star break he will get his shot.
Right now, our two best MLB (not DL'ed) OF'ers at Jones and Gillespie. Who would have predicted THAT on opening day?
BTW, Endy must go.
AAA is not some holding pen for rejects and miscreants - hitters and pitchers actually learn things there. Yes, AA is where you find out whether your young talent can compete with other legit major league talent, but AAA is finishing school.
I don't know if the Ms habit of ignoring AAA is hurting their prospects... but I can't imagine it's helping. AAA plate appearances:
Seager: 117
Miller: 122
Zunino: 229
Romero: 375
Yes, talented players can skip or blow through AAA, but ALL of our hitters? And we're not even talking about pitching promotions like Elias and Maurer since that's a slightly different kind of adjustment. It's like the Ms saw your "guys that skip AAA and do well in the bigs usually hit a bagillion in AA" line and thought that anybody who did well in AA could be thrown to the bigs and ensure their immediate stardom. Doesn't work that way, fellas - and your big-league coaches are not getting good adjustments out of guys who have skipped an extra 500-800 ABs in the minors where they could have done some of this learning and database building without the extreme competition.
Jabari Blash has 363 PAs above the low-minors, as a raw hitter from a non-baseball island. After 150 PAs in Tacoma we should not be talking about promoting him. He still has a LOT to learn. Don't get me wrong, it looks like he's learning, but why rush him and mess it up?
Choi has 337 PAs at AA and AAA combined, has missed 50 games, and got to AAA in under a thousand PAs TOTAL. And as an overseas player from a country that isn't exactly a well-oiled pipeline of continuous talent, he has a lot to learn. Just last year he was facing pitchers who didn't have to shave and couldn't throw breaking pitches for strikes. Could we maybe give him a second to SEE a few good breaking balls thrown by AAA and AAAA guys before he has to go face Tanaka?
AAA serves a purpose. The Ms need to let it, and stop throwing the bodies of their best players at the cracks in the levy. Make a trade. Stop making unprepared kids try to win this war for you - we no longer HAVE to do it that way. The system is back, and there's better talent on the big-league club than the most of the 2009-12 teams. Let Blash and Choi and Kivlehan and Peterson breathe a little and get their learning curve in order so when they get here they can actually HELP instead of wave helplessly at pitches for 2 years while sucking up a roster spot.
~G
Smoaky had only 581 AAA PAs over five seasons, and never over 250 PAs in any season. in 2010, he managed to OPS over .800, but never again. For some reason, he's never managed any MLB success either. Will he ever? Maybe LoMo will never give 1B back to him. One can hope that some player wants that job.
But I am really pleased with the progress of the named prospects and several others and hope they are continually being challenged so they maintain their interest in improving constantly (Montero and Morrison come to mind as guys that stalled).
In particular, to me Blash is showing, like Wilson, a coachability and adjustability that belies the "RH Peguero" comp that is so common out there. You're right, he should get a season at AAA to "lock in" the skills, and Wilson probably shouldn't go to AA directly, but should get a chance to put up astronomical numbers and confuse Vandenberg with some of his launches from Adelanto before moving up. But they are showing so much ....
And. particularly, I just believe that right now Jabari's proven skills to adjust and perform WAY exceed Peguero's and also many other "ranked" prospects. The kid should start getting some due for his obvious hard work. I DO think by the All-Star break he'll be hard to ignore. Maybe it will be best, though, to discipline ourselves to wait.
I'm in complete agreement with Gordon.
Once a player reaches Seattle they should be ready to perform and be a positive contributing asset towards helping the M's win ball games. Yes there are times due to injury or ineffectiveness that you call on a player like James Jones to fill in. But if a young play is batting under .200 over a stretch of 100AB's lets get him out of there and get someone else in there who can at least put up a fight.
Years ago when living in NJ I was listening to a Yankees radio broadcast when Joe Torre was still managing. And someone asked him about developing the young talent on their team and he replied the Major Leagues are for winning and the minor leagues are for developing talent.
Now I'm all for throwing young players on the field at the end of the season if you are out of the playoffs, but I don't want to call someone up who is struggling to hit AAA pitching i.e. Jabari Blash and expect him to have success in Seattle and still have any hopes of capturing a wild card spot. Heck Franklin was destroying AAA and you would think he could at least hold his own and perform at a replacement player level in the Major Leagues.
I agree let them learn in AAA. And when you bring them up and they show complete ineptness at the plate, let's get them out of here and bring someone else in.
Dear all,
Sorry I have been "lurking" for a while (since the Leuke incident in truth) without comment. Always enjoy everyone's comments, and have had little to add.
As a recent father, the difficulties of little children and babies are a daily challenge I face. My kids are wonderful, and I feel truly blessed to have them, but there's no question that for the last 2 years (in particular), my career has suffered as I spend all my free time with them (instead of say, relaxing or unwinding). Furthermore, nightime feedings, cleaning up after illness, helping assuage fears after a bad dream, all of this takes a tremendous toll on your ability to sleep. Add to that, some cultures (Japanese definitely, not sure about Latino cultures) have the babies sleep in the same bed as their parents until they are past the toddler stage, which absolutely destroys the ability by an athlete to recover (I do kendo and powerlift). If Montero is facing any or all of these challenges (as I am right now), I would be completely unsurprises if he continues to underperform for a few more months.
Of course MLB is a developmental level, TAD. Almost all players continue to develop at the MLB level. A few peak as rookies and then crash with no further development (J. Charbaneau, D. Ackley) but most continue to develop some.
To assume that we can't promote Blash, if he can help us win (going back to your Joe Torre quote), just because he's "not quite ready" isn't realistic. Almost no one would get promoted then. Most rookies are "not quite ready."
At some point you look at Blash and say, "OK...now," without really knowing.
That point isn't right now....but to let a season crash because of a want for bats when you have one who might help just a 20-minute commute away makes no sense.
If Blash keeps this up for another 3 weeks and if we're still sniffing around, he has to come up.
And if he came up right now, he would be worse than which one of our healthy COF'ers? Maybe Gillespie, that's it.