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IIRC only the Ms and the Halos have a positive run differential among the WC hopefuls. It'll be hard to get a MOTO bat though.
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Q. They're on pace for 86 wins, 76 losses. Would that ever get the second Wild Card?
A. In the AL, the #6 teams over the past ten years -- the teams the #5 squads have had to exceed -- have been as follows:
| Season | W's needed to be #5 | WC2 Club | W's by #6 | Remark |
| 2013 | 91 | TB/Tex | 91 | Playoff #5 vs #6 |
| 2012 | 91 | Bal | 90, Tampa | |
| 2011 | 87 | Bos | 86, LAA | |
| 2010 | 89 | Bos | 88, ChiSox | 95+ L's Bal, Sea, KC |
| 2009 | 87 | Tex | 86, Det | 97-98 L's by 3x clubs |
| 2008 | 89 | NYY | 88, Min | |
| 2007 | 88 | Sea/Det | M's made new playoffs | |
| 2006 | 88 | LAA | 87, Tor | |
| 2005 | 89 | Cle | 88, Oak |
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The last two years were the only times, the last decade, when it required 90 wins to make the new playoffs.
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Q. Will the teams ahead of the M's likely sink back?
A. We're over 1/3 into the season ... there are 3 teams with good offenses AND good defenses. Those teams are Oakland, Detroit, and Toronto - the three division leaders.
The Angels have a dangerous lineup (109 OPS+, with the Stars & Scrubs too) and average pitching -- but they're the team ahead of the M's.
Right now, the top 4 teams are actually the top 4 teams, Yogi.
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Q. Are any of the teams below the M's --- > likely to surge and win 90?
A. You could always say some team from the field will surge... that was kind of addressed in our first question, wasn't it? But one at a time:
The Orioles have decent hitting and the worst pitching in the league, by xFIP. Theoretically you can plan on them finishing below .500, based on the first 60 games.
The Yankees' pitching is kept afloat by Tanaka - benefitting from novelty - and their hitting is 93 OPS+ ... their lineup is being carried by Yangervis Solarte and their #2-3 starters (Sabathia, Kuroda) are getting shelled. They're a mess.
Texas has the 3rd-worst pitching in the league, with all the injuries, and their lineup is a shell of its former self.
The Red Sox have a super bullpen but a old, weird lineup and rotation, as do the Yankees. Neither AL East giant is mathematically eliminated from the playoffs :- ) but neither team "beats you while still in the tunnel" the way they used to.
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Sabermetrically, Cleveland has the 2nd-best xFIP in the American League and they have a good lineup ... odd that they're only 31-31.
But their lineup is being carried by overperformers (Kipnis, Brantley, Murphy, Chisenhall etc). In the rotation, Corey Kluber is quite a revelation, of course, but everybody else either walks 4+ guys or has gopheritis.
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Q. So it's shaping up to be an easy year for the #5 Wild Card slot?
A. It is, yes. The more so, if you have three division winners take it by wide margins, and only one or two teams lose a ton of games.
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Q. What do you have to keep LrKrBoi29 happy, and reassure us that SSI sees the whole picture?
A. Worst bit of bad news ... the M's taken collectively over the first 60 games have a bottom-feeder offense (about as bad as Houston's and Tampa's, though not as bad as the Royals') ...
... and their pitching, taken collectively over 60 games, is only league average.
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Naturally, you can point to huge sucking chest wounds (Erasmo, Maurer, Almonte, Miller, etc) that are either now fixed or will be imminently fixed. But LrKrBoi29, in his zeal to demonstrate his journo credentials, will point out that other clubs are busy trying to do the same.
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Q. What do you have that isn't for LrKrBoi29?
A. To their credit, the M's have been convicted about their ability to win 85-90 since long before the current 7-for-8 win streak. They think they've got some talent now.
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Also, remember James' Second Law. Buying into the ballclub before they win, makes the winning a whale of a lot more fun. He's got an interesting piece up right now, on the pre-2004 Boston fans' scorn for "Pink Hatters" (fans who got on board after the World Series).
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Also, Dr. D groks that the 2014 M's have the air of a winner. They seem to think they can win. Take it or leave it.
If you take it, credit Lloyd McClendon appropriately, gentlemen. Also credit Robinson "Straw That Stirs" Cano and, finally given his chance to perform when it matters, The King.
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Q. Leaving us where?
A. Needing to finish about +10 or +12 over .500.
If we're going to get Felix into the 1995 Angels one game deal-io, exactly 20 years after we deployed Randy Johnson that way.
Get me Paxton and Taijuan in there, trade for a MOTO bat, and I'll be glad to watch the pennant race play out for you.
Your friend,
Dr D
Comments
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Tough to see a true MOTO bat coming in without giving up Paxton or Walker. A Cuddyer rental, maybe.
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We have a MOTO presence in Tacoma. Slice it like you want, Montero creams lefties. He does this year (SSS), he did last year...he has every year. So the first thing we could do is get him up and DH him vL. Morrison was on base 4 times yesterday and he's getting some 1st base starts. He comes up and plays 1B. Smoak and Chavez (or Saunders to the DL) get moved.
Immediately your offense is somewhat better.
I would actually get Kelly her too, on a look see basis. But I think those AB's will continue to go to Bloomie for a while.
We have options that are at hand and make us better. Time to move on.
Sigh,
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Mr. Willie Bloomquist, sporting a .956 OPS over the past month (28 days). Ok, Ok, that won't last. But in the meantime, makes for a great rally cry: "Willie Bloomquist...who cares!"
Sure wish we'd kept Morse around.
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Everyone is all "EEEEW - his line-ups are WEEEEEIRD!!!" but he's definitely started playing the hot hand like Hawaiian on a ukulele.
You hit...you play...that's how teams begin to believe they can win. James Jones came in hitting...he won the lead-off spot until he stops hitting entirely. Michael Saunders started raking...he started playing full time minus days off for rest. Romero had that hot streak and he started like 12 times in 15 games. Cole Gillespie is hot right now...so he plays. Ditto Bloomquist. Buck has a nice game while Zunino is slumping...Buck gets a few extra starts.
He stuck with Almonte too long...but that was because Z didn't give him another CFer he though could handle the job full time at that position and be productive. He is sticking with Miller through this horrible slump, but that's because Franklin came up and promptly hit .100...so we don't have a better choice.
You hit you play...that's how winners are made.
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Choi has been re-instated. Hopefully he can get back on the same pace he was at before.
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McLendon is winning me over. He doesn't have a roster that is deep with talent but he's mixing and matching pretty well now. I can't blame him too much for the long leash policy. It's one of the reasons that the Tigers players said they liked him so much.
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In which case a fresh meadow full of daffodils... well, wild daisies at any rate ... opens up:
Ben Zobrist, Carlos Gonzalez, Jimmy Rollins, Matt Kemp, Chase Headley, guys in that category, not that you couldn't debate any specific name. But generally speaking, if you'll pay more for a bat in $$$ than he's worth on the field, you can have him for a bag of balls.
Chase Utley would be an interesting player for the short term. You'd have to work him in via McClendon's new 9-to-make-5 thing, like Franklin DH'ing, getting games at SS, etc. Utley could play 1B for me ahead of Smoak :- )
........
If we're going to quibble about specific names ... Adam Dunn is a DH/1B, er, a DH, and has a .400 OBP this year with a near-.500 SLG. Nobody's going to ask Taijuan Walker for the 34-year-old Dunn.
Dunn is on $15M per, is a pending FA, and has his game back together now that he's in a salary drive. Would much prefer him to a stale-on-the-shlef Kendrys Morales.