August 2010
Posted by jemanji on 08/31/10
I/O: Bill Krueger says that Felix should throw his curve ball more. Also, the blog-o-sphere opines that Felix' curve ball looks better and better all the time.
CRUNCH: This is a broken light bulb on my stadium scoreboard. I've always thought that Felix should , theoretically, be able to rack up 10+ K's a game just throwing fastballs and curves. Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan, among many others, did exactly this. Josh Beckett, Dwight Gooden, the young Kerry Wood, etc etc etc.
We've seen lesser pitchers make entire careers out of curve balls like Felix' even if they didn't have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/31/10
15 Comments
=== Pedro vs Felix ===
Noodling around watching Felix pitch, not trying to whine here, but I've never understood why he isn't Pedro Martinez. Granted, Felix runs 170 ERA's. But Pedro routinely ran them from 200 to 300. I mean, why?
Bill James once ventured a guess as to why Pedro Martinez was a 250 ERA+ pitcher: he did everything a little better than other pitchers. His FB was a little crisper, his command just a little better, the curve ball just 10% sharper, etc .... and the cumulative effect was overwhelming.
A tempting guess, but I'd go almost the opposite way. I think it was as... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/31/10
Cool Papa Bell, who won the last 20-team mixed league at DOV/SSI, sez:
I am completely unfit to be commenting on a players mechanics so while all this sounds good I really have no clue how correct it is. What I do know a little bit about is stats. And something I have discovered is that if a hitter has any sort of major league career, his ISO in the majors will be BETTER than what it was in the minors. Now, I haven't done any kind of study and it might not hold up for the guys with next to no power (like Luis Castillo and Willie Bloomquist), but from what I've seen this is a very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
Posted to blog
This is a 9-part series ... the click-through links are bottom right.
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=== Reference Points ===
In order to zero Nick Franklin’s swing dynamics, let’s put them against the backdrop of two other great hitters. We poked around a bit trying to find photos of lousy hitters :- ) at precisely the launch point, but they’re a little harder to find and hey, we’ve got our 23-post quota to fill. :pinkfloyd get on with it:
If you can find a convenient photo of a mortal hitter at launch point, let me know. It will only increase your appreciation for the Franklin pics below.
We’ll start with a look... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
5 Comments
Previous article
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=== Nick Franklin Frame 1, Ready Position ===
These photos are just random screen grabs from his swings in the 2010 MWL homer derby, around the 0:39 mark.
it ain't like we cherry-picked the best we could find; these are the first we found. The pic quality isn't great; the live video is going to get the point across much better. Two windows, gentlemen.
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Pic 1 shows Franklin's ready position. No big deal here, but note the following items:
Hands beautifully shoulder-high and in fact imperceptibly "connected" with his shoulder plane
Kinetic energy... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
Previous article
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=== Frame 2, READ ME ===
Look at Franklin's wrist hinge.
Two golfers, both weighing 180 lbs., will hit the ball very different distances. The reason? Wrist hinge.
People wonder how Ichiro, weighing 165 lbs, hits a baseball 400 feet. It's just torsion and wrist hinge.
Most ballplayers can't hit for as much power if they're smaller, no. But some ballplayers have special swings.
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=== Frame 3, Pre-Contact Position ===
Midway between trigger position and contact. (Well, closer to contact.)
Look at the wrist hinge now! Are you KIDDING!! me! That ball is almost to his... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
7 Comments
=== Rising Line Drives ===
We noted already that Franklin hits lots of fly balls, yet with very few infield popups. For example, in June he hit 46% fly balls and only 2% popups, from both sides. And 26% line drives.
For the season, his ratio is 44% fly balls and 5% popups. Which is, of course, the opposite of what the pitcher is trying to make happen. Pitchers lower their on-field ERA's by inducing ground balls, not fly balls. And they do want to get as many infield pops as they can.
Go through the Fangraphs batted-ball-type leaders and find the [FB% guys] who [do not hit popups]. In... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
5 Comments
=== Dr's Prognosis ===
We're not proposing 30 homers per season for Franklin. But we are saying that there are many routes to a .500 SLG, including 35 doubles and 15 homers.
And what in Chase Utley's name is so far-fetched about Nick Franklin hitting home runs? He's hit 19 this season, as a teenager. And what is he doing in the homer derby? As against everything Franklin is doing, you're going to tell me that his weight overrules it all?
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Q. Will his RH hitting eventually come up to his LH hitting?
A. I doubt it.
With many young hitters, such as Justin Smoak, you can confidently expect... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
Previous article
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Q. Is he an Ackley-level talent? Griffey level?
A. Gorgeous as the LH swing is, Franklin at 19 was a quality cleanup hitter in a tough class-A league. That is definitely blue-chip performance, top-50 or top-75 performance.
But Ken Griffey Jr. was a very good major league player at age 19. You're not talking about epic performance at 19. You're talking about very exciting performance.
Minorleaguesplits.com normalizes for luck and park and gives Franklin these stats at 19:
310/375/525 - Overall season, both sides
330/400/565 - Season vs LHP's (that's Manny... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
3 Comments
Previous article
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Q. Wow, if Franklin has a Griffey swing and he's hit the ground running as a future #3 hitter ... why did Franklin slip to #27 overall in the 2009 draft?
A1. You're talking about the first round of an ML draft, and a 160-lb. teenage shortstop.
High school shortstops are indeed very unlikely to stick at SS in the majors. We read somewhere that the last three HS shortstops to start All-Star games at that positon were ARod, Jeter, and Royce Clayton in the 1980's. MLB franchises are well aware of this fact.
If you were talking about a college shortstop, where you'd have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
Previous article
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Q. So despite not being taken high, Franklin could be a future ML star, who was simply camoflaged on draft day?
A. Sure he could.
But he wasn't "camoflaged"; that would imply that other players are clearly pegged and drafted correctly. They ain't. All players, except the first five picks or so, are "camoflaged" like Franklin was.
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Keep in mind: most ML All-Stars were drafted outside the first 15 picks of the draft. Most current All-Stars were running head-down, middle-of-the-pack on draft day.
Lemme just run down the NL All-Stars this year:
Hanley... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/30/10
15 Comments
Previous article
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Q. What's yer point? That the draft is a only a crapshoot?
A. So ... as amigos kick around thoughts like "this guy is a #5-10 overall but that guy's only a #20 overall," keep in mind that they're trying to measure atoms with yardsticks.
ML teams don't even know who is a 1st-rounder and who isn't. Not on draft day, they don't. So how are they going to know whether Nick Franklin is a #27 or a #7? They're not.
That's not an indictment of the people doing the ammy drafting, who are the best in the world at what they do. It's a simple observation that it isn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
4 Comments
.... went 5-for-5 Thursday, had two more absolutely smoked hits Friday, which brings him to 16-for-34 (.471) for Tacoma.
In his first AB on Friday he got a jam pitch on 1-2 from a LHP and just blistered it into RF. In his third AB, he calmly worked the count to 3-1, looking completely relaxed against a sidearm LOOGY type, and on the challenge FB blasted a line-drive double into the corner.
His followthrough looked more like Ken Griffey Jr's than it looked like Jack Wilson's or Jose Lopez'. This kid is not your typical middle infielder when he has a bat in his hands... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
10 Comments
.... And with that in mind, you look at his (minor league) SX and range factors and what do you find?
His SX's look better than a lot of SS's, notably, Tug's Speed Index scores look better than Jack Wilson's. Hulett has a lot of 20-4, 15-5, 9-2 seasons stealing bases, with 108 in 4.5 seasons at a good percentage. He's got some triples and he's got nice low GIDP totals. Physically, he looks like he runs as well as Jack or Josh Wilson do, though he has a thicker abdomen and backside.
On Hulett's double Friday, he made the turn around 1B with nice long strides, actually looked fairly... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
Flavor text: that text on a collectible card game's individual playing card that (1) has no effect on the game, (2) proves and accomplishes nothing, and (3) adds characterization to the escape fantasy aspect of the game.
This legendary dragon is a powerful engine of destruction. Virtually invincible, very few have faced this awesome creature and lived to tell the tale. - We forget whether this is the flavor text for Blue Eyes White Dragon, for Felix Hernandez, or for the cash register at Intentional Wok.
The Japanese translation on that card is, purportedly, This legendary dragon is proud of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
=== Chone ===
He and the park go together like chocolate-covered asparagus. (Hold it, that's almost flavortexty...)
As the Mariners have rallied the last two weeks, he has steadfastly resisted the temptation to participate. Under Brown, the M's were 6-6 on the mondo-tough road trip, scoring 48 runs.
Meanwhile, Figgins had a .222/.280/.222 40 OPS+ during that "surge," and had the joke missed relay in Boston (that I saw, anyway. Who knows what else I didn't see that his teammates did).
Would like to know if Capt Jack has had opportunities to move him. If not, the plan must be to (1) let... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
=== Jose Lopez ===
Looks flat, lifeless, static.
The quickness isn't there. The joy isn't there. Safeco has checkmated him. At this point, I'm signing off on the NonTender and we can cry into our lemynade like we did with Carlos Guillen.
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Adrian Beltre is now relaxing into his swing and he's carrying a 140 OPS+ into September. I am here to assure you that precisely the same (kind of) thing will occur with Jose Lopez, starting with the first game he plays as a non-Mariner.
Safeco is a joke. Armstrong fancies that a baseball purist appreciates the drag on scoring, but... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
3 Comments
=== Franklin Gutierrez ===
1. Everybody likes Franklin. Especially me.
2. He's pretty much an average ballplayer, plus he runs quite well, getting great defensive stats out of Safeco. He's +25 runs in Safeco and would be +10 in Texas.
3. I think it was Denard Span, in the 2nd. Hard fly ball to left-center. That ball hung and hung and hung up. Guti ran over smoothly and caught it on the run.
4. So could Michael Saunders.
5. He's hitting .246/.308/.361.
6. A .308 OBP is terrible.
7. A .361 SLG is terrible.
8. Dr. D, early on, doubted Gutierrez' ability to become a better than 100... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
20 Comments
=== Josh Wilson ===
Span led off with a hit and Orlando tripled* him in.
But! Guti cleared the ball off the wall like an Islanders goalie behind the net ...and Josh did one of those relays where it looks like the ball hits a little whirling accelerator. Right on target runner out.
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In the past, I've condemned the decision to keep Wilson around, in view of the fact that he's (1) a poor hitter and (2) mediocre defensively.
But we also acknowledge a GM's need for the "stoploss." You or I, trying to GM a team, would wind up with four or five horrible sucking chest wounds on the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
... if you want to share the fate of an original 1995 STATS AOL fan, circa 2000-2001.
He'd been in the "Be Afraid, Be Very Afraid" bleachers from 1995-2000, and watched Pat Gillick turn a losing 1999 team into a 90-win 2000 team.
But after the 2000 season, ARod left and then we fans debated all winter how best to spend ARod's $20M salary. :- ) Guess how Chuck and Howard spent it? You got that right.
Going into 2001, you had the devastating loss of an 800-homer shortstop, you had Jay Buhner in his death throes, you had Edgar turning 38, you had the Mariners picked 3rd of 4 teams in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
Q. Great time to be an M's fan :- / you mean like Smoak and Ackley?
A. Look, if you wanted to Start Your Franchise with any kind of player you could draw up on the chalkboard -- Longoria, or Lincecum, or Mauer, or Strasburg, if you became a GM and wanted a young franchise player, here is what you would pick:
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1. You would definitely pick a hitter over a pitcher. First-round hitters provide much, much more return than first-round pitchers. The M's are very fortunate that their savior is slated to be Dustin Ackley, as opposed to being Brandon Morrow or somebody... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
5 Comments
He continues to count off the odds-enhancing factors, on the fingers of both hands...
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8. You would take infielders over outfielders. Ackley plays a premium position. As a quality 1B, you'd rather have Smoak than a corner OF or DH or lumbering Montero type (though of course you'd rather have a CF than a good 1B).
Franklin is probably going to provide the Mariners with a league-average, low-salary SS real quick here. Figgins will play 3B. That positions your Yahtzee card to just cram bats into your OF and DH slots.
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We're not saying the job is done. We're reminding... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/27/10
10 Comments
Q. Anything else?
A. SSI continues to bask in the warm glow of Theo Epstein's remark over Felix Hernandez: if there were one player you'd start a team with...
Dr. D has watched a whale of a lot of M's teams who did not have a legit Opening Day starter of any kind. 've seen my share of teams who couldn't come up with anything better than Scott Bankhead, Diego Segui, or Glenn Abbott as their #1.
The Rangers can tell you about how frustrating it can be to find even a staff ace, much less a monster Cy Young righty.
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This 2010 ballclub was one that should have been dispensed with an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/10
=== Prereq Dept. ===
In order to understand the below post, understand the definition of "loser."
A loser is a man who talks big and walks big, until that moment of the contest when it looks like he's going to lose. At that moment, he stops thinking, he stops playing tough, and he folds.
He still runs around as hard, probably, and because he's ticked off he might actually look like he's trying harder. But he isn't. He's gone from "focused" to "what's the point, I'll whale at it and hope for the best."
A quarterback is in a fold, if he goes down 20-10 in the third and then forces... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/25/10
7 Comments
For those who just joined us, Chone Figgins outdid himself in Wednesday's afternoon game:
The Mariners were tied, naturally because the Sox hadn't scored yet, in the 6th inning.
Single, lineout, single, walk and AAA pitcher David Pauley's 1-strikeout luck had run out. Coach to the mound to figure out how to escape Destiny.
Adrian Beltre then hit a hard grounder that would have been a GIDP up the middle, except Pauley kicked it. Bases loaded, M's down 1-0.
Do the M's fold here? Or do they cowboy up?
Lowell hit a SF to Ichiro, making it 2-0. FIGGINS, DISGUSTED WITH ANOTHER DEFEAT*, QUITS ON... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/24/10
7 Comments
Nick Franklin... month or two ago we were asked to hit the vid room and weigh in on his projectable power, or lack thereof ...
Interesting question that ... why on draft day 2009 they wrote off his power, and therefore his chances to make much of an impact with the bat ...
An even more interesting question, why this still is the case per some field-level scouts, the dismissal of Franklin's potential to hit 20+ homers, considering he has in fact hit just about that many in a fraction of the 2010 season. Is the kid just to small to hit with authority against the fearsome MLB(TM) fireballers... Read More
Posted by SABR Matt on 08/18/10
30 Comments
Latin to English Translation: Where are we going?
I've been a Mariner fan since 1991 - the year I attended my first big league game at the Kingdome. I've seen good years, aweful years, and everything in between. When you devote 20 years of your life to loving something almost as much as you love anything else in your life, you never want to say goodbye. But I have to ask...Quo Vatimus?
The tableau that perfectly expresses the reason for my newfound hopelessness when it comes to the Mariners is that of Jack Zduriencik announcing the firing of Wakamatsu. All accounts indicate that the man... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
On August 2, had a chance to see what was perhaps Michael Pineda's last (real) start of the 2010 season. We're at the end of an 80-hour workweek, so apologies if the prose is more worthless than usual.
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=== Work In Progress ===
After an inning or two, we asked Cindy what her impression was of Pineda's attitude on the mound. "Carefree," she said. (Cindy can answer any question in the world with a single word -- and usually does. Eat your hearts out, gentlemen.)
Like the AAA Felix was carefree?
"Felix was careLESS. Pineda is carefree."
Oh.
Pineda, by the way, steps on the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
4 Comments
=== Dr's R/X ===
Though Pineda would be very effective in the bigs right now, he's farrrrr from ready. Does that make any sense?
His polish is that of a class-A pitcher, almost. But he's just so talented that, playing first-person shooter out there, he still blows 'em down.
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Earlier, I called for the M's to promote Pineda immediately. Now, we realize that he has lots and lots of work to do.
Here's the question. Would you let him do this work in the majors, or not? He's got to achieve the same timing on his FB and offspeed mechanics. Is that something that you do in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
2 Comments
=== Change and/or Splitter ===
Felix, when he was in the minors, was rumored to have an 88 mph slider that was better than his other four pitches. This turned out to be the case. Felix still, to this day, throws the slider for an automatic strike whenever he wants.
Pineda is reported to have some weird 88 mph change/split that is untouchable. I think I saw it a couple times, once to blow away Deeds in the 5th, the bottom just falling out and dropping way under his bat. The other time may have been for a called strike first pitch to Allen in the 4th.
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As a general rule, if... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
3 Comments
I/O: Jeff Sullivan, typically, understates his own insight in this piece about Robles' foot plant. All that he's got goin' on, and humility too. Wotta guy.
Sully affirms that Robles' foot plant is, firstly, important:
Look at Robles' back leg. Then look at his front leg. Then look at the catcher.
Ordinarily, these three points are supposed to arrange themselves in a ~line. Check out Roy Halladay as an example. This is what's called the driveline, and as much energy as possible should be going towards hurling the ball along it from the rubber to the plate.
Robles' right leg, though, doesn... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
I/O: Peter Gammons tweeted that:
A Mariners source told him that:
>> Ichiro told Yamauchi that:
>>> Ichiro would like Valentine to manage the M's, which led to:
>>> Larry Stone reporting on it, which led to:
>>>> National controversy over Ichiro's gall, which forced Ichiro to say that:
>>>>> Ichiro would never consider "disrespecting" (sic!) his teammates and current manager that way.
Thus goeth the breathless tone:
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If Ichiro indeed went straight to Yamauchi in Japan and lobbied for Valentine -- and it's at least conceivable he did that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/16/10
As discussed above: in the NBA, nobody worries about whether LeBron is picking his next coach. SportsCenter doesn't report breathlessly that Kevin Durant is trying to influence the selection of the next coach. Columnists wouldn't suffer the vapors if LeBron, Dwayne and Chris brought in a coach.
And why wouldn't they pick the coach? LeBron is worth 10x, maybe 100x what the coach is worth. Who says that the tactician is The Man and the warrior ain't?
In your billion-dollar recruiting of LeBron James, if staff and personnel are part of the recruiting package, why wouldn't you pay pennies... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
Here's Conor Dowley at ProBallNW with the kind of post that made the internet great. ::golfclap::
Mauricio Robles' debut at AAA, complete with two complete AB's on video and about ten column inches' worth of interesting opines to mosh off.
And after the Robles goodness, there is meat-and-potatoes on Smoak and Ackley, too.
POTD for another time, but Robles at a glance off the video:
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The Round Rock Express hitters didn’t stand a chance against Robles early. The first batter of the game got a bloop single over the glove of shortstop Luis Dominguez, but after that it was all Robles... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
6 Comments
The stuff, as PBNW reports:
Robles is not a big man (listed at 5’10?, 205 lbs), but gets his fastball up there in the mid-90s, and has a nice changeup and a decent curve. He came out hard, with his fastball clocking in at 93-95 MPH with a couple at 96 and 97 in the first. The changeup was registering around 85, and the one curveball I noticed was at 77.
(For those who haven't been to Cheney, it does have a pretty good radar gun up on the scoreboard.) Obviously 96 and 97 fastballs in the first inning, near September for a 21-year-old, that's bigtime velocity for a young lefthand... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
6 Comments
I/O: Kudos to Jason for chasing down juicy quotes re: Brown.
CRUNCH: And, as usual, Jason's comments in the thread are almost better than the original article.
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I/O: Brown with raves for his leadership skills.
Such as, "The guy knows how to mesh personalities together, how to get young players to focus on what they need to be focused on. That is not an easy task," said one front office executive. "He's got that kind of reputation."
CRUNCH: Ummmmmmm .... right away, crazy-ol' Dr. D is nervous. That's an FKey7 comment. You know how you feel about fluff pieces in March about... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
I/O: Valentine viewed as unwilling to come to Seattle if the Mariners are going to rebuild in 2011.
CRUNCH: Have to part ways on this one.
Valentine has stated, publicly, that he'd be glad to come here, and what could the 2011 Mariners possibly do but rebuild, even if they wanted something else?
Have you checked the ages of the pitchers in the M's rotation? Are the Mariners wedded to the kinds of fading Buddy Bells, Toby Harrahs and Cliff Johnsons that Bobby Valentine inherited in Texas in 1985 -- and whom he powerflushed in order to bring in young players who turned the ballclub... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
2 Comments
I/O: M's win two crisp games as Brown takes the helm... and then slap me silly if they don't parlay it into 4 ballgames, and two nice series victories.
CRUNCH: Which is an illustration of the fact that manager changes do give a re-set.
But those first two wins were 3-1 and 2-0, and the victories drew nothing but a groaaaannnnnnn from Dr. D. Pep in your step is fine, but the Mariners had pep in early April. The balloon was relentlessly pulled down by the weight of a AAA-quality offense: it took the Wak M's about 20 games to realize that they were just terrible.
This team, under... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/15/10
8 Comments
I/O: Much to Dr. D's amazement, our Bobby V proposal is a popular one. Mariner Central thread running 0.00% against. G, Lonnie and other celebs backing the Valentine/Brown ticket for '011.
CRUNCH: Brown as bench coach, in a Pixar movie setting that is, would rock.
Would be pretty weird, though, for a personality of Valentine's magnitude to have his pitching coach and bench coach handed to him...
[He ticks off the points on his fingers] PROBLEMO 1: Note that Adair got hit by the same frag-grenade that got Wok, despite a number of miracle performances from the Vargases, Aardsmas and so... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
Q. Is SSI a Bobby Valentine proponent? Are you going to be pushing him?
A. Not at all. Well, at least it's not like we're married to the idea, like we were married to the idea of shunning -40 OPS+ ballplayers at [1B+SS+C] this March.
We just think there's a lot of merit to considering the basic approach, that approach being to get a manager who can calf-rope 25 men into going the same direction.
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Q. Why did you bring him into the discussion, earlier this year?
A. Because the positives on Bobby V -- or somebody like him -- look like excellent remedies for problems we've got.
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Q... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
Q. OK, so what were these big successes?
A2. Well, we're not talking Mike Scioscia here. But he was handed challenges and he came out the winner. There are a whale of a lot of guys who didn't.
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In 1985, Valentine was handed a 99-loss Rangers team in midseason. Would you have wanted this 1985 Rangers team?
93 OPS+, yuk. 91 ERA+, double yuk. You know what was much worse? 30-somethings Toby Harrah, Buddy Bell, Cliff Johnson ... Burt Hooton, Frank Tanana ... a roster crammed with Entitled Vets.
The next year, did the Rangers lose 99 with that roster full of 100-loss... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
4 Comments
Q. 600-lb. Gorilla managers can spark rebellion.
A. So can guys who try to set records for letting the umps do what they want...
No, seriously, there are a few Piniellas and LaRussas and Bakers out there who transcend a clubhouse. Those guys can command a ballclub. Bobby Valentine, unless we're mistaken, is in that group.
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Q. Any other successes he had, besides the Rangers and Mets?
A3. Valentine's managerial success in Japan cannot be dismissed. That is a challenge he was given, a difficult one. He aced it, big time.
His Japanese success speaks well to Valentine's intelligence,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
Q. What does the SSI mainframe crunch out of Lee's aberrant strikeout-to-walk ratio?
A. As we write this, Lee has 137 whiffs against only 9 walks, in 20 games started. In essence, he's continued to fan 7 men a game, but cut his walks from 1.5 down to "the occasional bad call."
Dr. D probably hangs more pitcher evaluaton on this X/Y ratio than anybody alive. And we've been doing so for lotsa years. We take the strikeout ratio, and match it against the template, and the BB ratio, and match that, and then the proportion, and mosh that off the template.
So, although SSI... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
Q. What do you make of his 2010 season? Has he leaped a plateau?
A. SSI, we believe, was the first to point out that Cliff Lee had improved since 2008-09. After his 6th start of the 2010 season, we announced that Lee, despite already being a Cy Young pitcher, had leaped a plateau -- again.
Intuitively, we based this on the breezy persona that he had adopted this year. Lee, in April and May, was out there playing a first-person shooter video game!
We don't say that as a cliche. We've only seen a couple of ML pitchers pitch like machines. Randy Johnson used to just go do what he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/14/10
8 Comments
Q. Which leaves Cliff Lee's prognosis, where?
A. On the one hand, a pitcher with his stuff shouldn't be as great as he is. To me, he's defying gravity.
But on the other hand, Cliff Lee and Greg Maddux have taken "pitchability" to 90 on the 20-80 scale. Lee's got his third pitch locked and loaded while the first pitch is in the air. It's become a big joke to him, whipsawing the hitters across four pitches none of which they can get a good swing at.
Seems to me that every pitcher like Lee that I ever saw, came back to earth relatively soon. The guys who won 300 games, had easily-... Read More
Posted by Spectator on 08/12/10
13 Comments
--- Draft standings ---
1. Pittsburgh 39-74 4 GB Ms
2. Baltimore 40-74 3-1/2 GB Ms
3. Seattle 44-71 --
4. Arizona 46-69 2 G ahead of Ms
5T. Cleveland 47-67 3-1/2 G ahead of Ms
5T. KC 47-67 3-1/2 G ahead of Ms
7. Cubs 48-66 4-1/2 G ahead of Ms
8. Houston 48-65 5 G ahead of Ms
9. Washington 49-65 5-1/2 G ahead of Ms
Well, Baltimore has crawled out of the cellar with its hot streak under Schowalter. AZ has also been hot, giving it some space ahead of the Ms, but the rest of the pack -- which was a full 6 games in front of the Ms just a couple weeks ago -- has been... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/10
The evening that a televised Chone Figgins told Don Wakamatsu to take a flying leap at the moon, SSI advised that the next morning we would all know where Zduriencik stood on Don Wakamatsu.
That since became the consensus. No offense to our good amigos round the blog-o-sphere, but the general reaction the morning after was, Please don't overreact, no biggie, don't panic, give it a month and we'll see how it plays out.
Baker and SSI that night, however, were shellshocked at Figgins' code-break, given the specific manner in which he did it. Here we had no less than a mutiny... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/10
Kudos to Figgins, with a Heath Ledgers haaa ..... haaa ... haaa ... haaaaaaaaa, for forcing Zduriencik's hand and accelerating the rebuild process by about 50 games.
Zduriencik might, under other circumstances, have allowed a more graceful exit, but the burning building began to gather a crowd. Only a blundering Dr. Clouseau would have tolerating the laughingstock syndrome that ensued. Jack Zdurencik is not known for blundering idiocy.
Figgins staged the public mutiny loooooooonnnnnnnnnng, long after the swords and black-powder pistols were ringing out below decks. Hey, when two... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/09/10
39 Comments
Kudos to Don Wakamatsu for the class and intelligence shown throughout; he'll land on his feet.
I don't believe that there was much, if anything, that he could have done differently in 2010.
Believe it or not, the only "lesson learned" he could take with him, to his next job, would be "don't tick off the Hall of Famers in the clubhouse. They won't stand for it." (Figgins sees himself as being approximately in this political category; don't overlook his "Ichiro and I will be the best 1-2 in baseball history" commercial.)
Believe it or don't. The P-I posters were screaming for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/07/10
A fun back-and-forth going on at Mariner Central, guys with different visuals on Ackley's skill set at age 26-27.
Of note, San-Man was the local on-the-spot for Ackley's UNC glory and sees a very feasible Brian Giles arc.
Billy1 sez what I wuz thinking, how can you compare ANYbody, really, to Giles as the 185-to-225 lb. poster boy for the 'extra power' era.
But Sandy is up to the volley, as is Grizzly, who notes that Chuck Knoblauch posted gigantic OPS's as a table-setter.
Marco I/O's the question that fires up the mainframe:
Elsewhere I just read a couple of lines that leads me... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/07/10
3 Comments
=== Cross-Check Dept. ===
This kid has a razor-fine eye, he has an idea, he punishes mistakes, he gets to ball three and then he knows how to get another one. We still owe yer several posts on our cross-check of Ackley, but just real quick ....
Here's a kid where a sizzling lefty -- on an A night -- throws him a crackling LH curve four inches outside, and Ackley half-positions the bat with the greatest of ease. You could look it up.
Here's a guy where, a LH slider jussssst nips back over the plate in the last few feet, and Ackley suddenly SNNNAPS those wrists through and smokes it down... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/10
3 Comments
Legal disclaimer: This article is nothing more than opinion, supposition, and hearsay. It might or might not bear relation to the truth. Rumors of rumors of rumors aren't meant to be construed as factual testimony. -- Jeff
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Q. Who is Inside Pitch?
A. Angels fan.
.... for those just joining us, Pitch has been one of Russ' (Silentpadna's), Mikey's, Terry's (TopCat's) and Jemanji's best 'net amigos for 10-15 years. He's one of the original 1995 AOL STATS pack, doin' the roto thang with us since shortly after it was invented ...
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Q. What's with the sources?
A. Though a lot of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/06/10
9 Comments
Legal disclaimer: This article is nothing more than opinion, supposition, and hearsay. It might or might not bear relation to the truth. Rumors of rumors of rumors aren't meant to be construed as factual testimony. -- Jeff
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Q. Who's Terry Collins again?
A. The last manager the Angels had before the Scioscia era. They were a mess with him and began their run as a model franchise at precisely the moment they fired him.
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Q. If Figgins' cyber-version were true, would this make the incident Wakamatsu's fault?
A. It wouldn't exactly excuse Figgins, but it would certainly mean that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/04/10
=== Superman or Kryponite Dept. ===
I think Matt Mangini is kewl. I'm rootin' for him. And he's one of the Rainiers' best players right now.
Mangini is going to be able to hit in the bigs, for a 100 OPS+ anyway, if not more. The scouts take walks around the world tryin' to ease their troubled minds - about Mangini's glove, that is. Scouting reports call him strong, call him weak but still some secrets the scouts can't keep ...
If he can play third, he only has to hit 100 OPS+. But if you're talking about a stroll across the diamond to 1B, he's going to need a 115, 120 OPS to help a team... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/04/10
2 Comments
==== Play Two ===
The only other play to him, before Cindy and I bailed in the 8th, anyway: a worm-burner three-hopper just a yard to his backhand side.
Not super hard, was hit briskly, but hardly smoked. Mangini reached wayyyy down with a high backside and fully-extended arm, turned his chin a little bit away, turned his shoulder too far around, as if slightly anxious it might hop up and hit him -- and this kind of ball can't possibly bounce face-high.
The ball caromed off his hand, above the leather, over toward Chris Woodward who, amazingly, was on the hustle over as if he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/04/10
28 Comments
=== ML Career ===
When Mickey Saunders first hit the bigs, SSI sez, here is one guy who's going to get 3,000 - 4,000 AB's in the bigs. Read (at the time): I don't know what this team could do with him and it's tough to see him being a good player here.
But for the Royals, or somebody, as a #4 OF or #3 OF or something, Saunders was going to play in the bigs. Quite a bit. (As of August 2009, that has now become practically a given.)
Same goes for Matt Mangini. This guy has a major league bat. He's much quicker than other AAA hitters. He waits on the ball better than other AAA hitters... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/03/10
9 Comments
Had a chance to scope Senor Pineda, Deuce Ackley, et al on Monday night. Must be cool to fan 10 men per game when the other team has the pitches. Pineda has two grotesque tells, and in 80-odd pitches, the Aces didn't swing in front of a slider/change or behind a fastball one (1) time all night.
The Aces literally swung in correct time (or watched the pitch go by) 85 times in a row. Despite that, Pineda overmatched them. The Aces did manage to catch up to three or four of the tipped pitches, but except for that ...
Cindy could call the pitches from the stands, and they still couldn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/10
Kibitz: (intr) US and Canadian informal to interfere or offer unwanted advice, esp as a spectator at a card game
[from Yiddish kibitzen, from German kiebitzen to be an onlooker, from Kiebitz busybody, literally: plover]
.................
It's the raucous skittles (as opposed to the hushed, main tourney) conference room, $250k tournament. Two masters sitting across from each other, pieces flying around as they analyze a draw they just played. 50 guys standing in an elevator-sized area rubbernecking the celebrities sitting down.
The Kibitzer is the 23-year-old b'wana with pants up... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/10
2 Comments
Not much left to say after this 4-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins. The Mariners are a team in freefall. There appear to be no answers to what has ailed them all season. Tonight, against a so-so starting pitcher, the Mariners had three hits in eight innings. They got one more in the ninth.
And the day after, it got worse ... what's the next number in this sequence? Franklin Gutierrez throws down his bat running out a grounder, it flips up and impales him? How could it get worse?
Taro's on an OPS+ count... keep it comin' bro...
In July, the Mariners hit .219/.283/.308 -- you... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 08/01/10
11 Comments
But Zduriencik knows exactly what has been said on his non-support of the manager -- at least in public -- since the Figgins argument in the dugout. Travel from city to city, as we have this week to Chicago and now Minneapolis, and the people who work in baseball cannot understand how Wakamatsu is being allowed to twist in the wind like this.
They can't comprehend why Figgins was not made to apologize, if not to his manager, then at least to the fans for what happened in the dugout. Nor can they comprehend why Zduriencik has yet to come out in support of the manager on this.
All you... Read More