=== Josh Wilson ===
Span led off with a hit and Orlando tripled* him in.
But! Guti cleared the ball off the wall like an Islanders goalie behind the net ...and Josh did one of those relays where it looks like the ball hits a little whirling accelerator. Right on target runner out.
............
In the past, I've condemned the decision to keep Wilson around, in view of the fact that he's (1) a poor hitter and (2) mediocre defensively.
But we also acknowledge a GM's need for the "stoploss." You or I, trying to GM a team, would wind up with four or five horrible sucking chest wounds on the roster and no way to fix them, as (e.g.) the Royals have right now at the 3-4-5 starter slots.
Wilson provided against that, and what's more... the 2010 season was the one in which Dr. D finally gained an appreciation for scrappy middle infielders who "play the game the right way."
Guys like Wilson and Chris Woodward are all over the field, living and dying with each play, and on this team that looks like a diamond on black velvet.
Okay by me if Josh Wilson plays short until Cranklin gets here. Viva la matador. You go Josh.
.
=== Jason Vargas, the Little Train That Could ===
We are wayyyyyyyyy behind the curve here, but still just cannot figure this dude out.
Winded at the end of the year. Is muscling his fastball and the change is all he has. Sloppy command because the juice just isn't there to finish the pitch. He dips the weight more to try to get the juice. It doesn't really work.
................
In the 7th inning, M's down by 1 run ... 2 out, man on 2B:
Not often we admit this kinda thing you know, but when Jason Vargas pitches I understand the gameflow exactly as well as I understand soccer.
When tired at all, Vargas throws tons and tons of mid-80's fastballs out and over. Those are batting practice pitches, exactly the pitches the guys want to see in the HR contest. 80-85 miles an hour, up, moderately away so you can extend the arms. 75 degrees out, sunny and clear, middle of June, and a Jason Vargas fastball.
................
I don't get what I'm seeing, but Vargas has now done it two years in a row, including in his K/BB/HR peripherals.
About time to shut him down and save him for 2011. He's wasted.
...............
One more time: Capt Jack got this guy free, with Gutierrez, for a sore-armed JJ Putz.
.
A game recap? Vot next?,
Dr D
Josh Wilson is passable as a backup IF or AAA depth, but we really need a SS with upside at Safeco.
I'm very high on Nick Franklin, but who knows how long it'll take or whether he pans out. This is going to be Z's toughest job this offseason.
Doc, you're on fire today.
Following your great Hulett post with this Grand-Slam is a feat worth applauding. Well done, Well done!
My take:
Kotchman: You're correct. There is no excuse to play him now...but there has been no excuse to play him since about game 25. Release him. Please. The only way he's worth keeping around is if Z thinks he is worth a bargain basement salary next year to keep on the bench as a defensive specialist 1B. and if Z thinks that then he should be gone right now, too. Smoak! Carp! Tui! Mangini! Lopez (with Hulett in the IF)....all those are WAY better options...not only will they produce more but they make greater sense for the future of your club. I'm convinced that Z has a man-crush on Kotch in the sense that he invested in what he thought was a decent steal, a 1B guy about to blossom with the bat. Z is unable to walk away from that bet now....so, in a sense, he keeps playing it. I think he saw Kotch as this years Guti. Great GM's admist player mistakes. Z has not shown the desire/ability/willingness/huavos to do that.
Guti: Trade bait? To quote Robert Duvall in True Grit, "I call that mighty bold talk for a one-eyed fat man!" Bold, Doc, Bold! But there is a very interesting appeal to that move. I think I will chew it for a bit...but I think I'll soon agree with you. Guti as a complementary bat in a lineup that hits is very valuable. But he doesn't appear to be the kind of bat that can carry you for a bit. So the real question in a trade would be, "How much is the bat worth that you replace him with in LF?" You know my desire to see Mike Wilson get his Safeco shot. If he's a .260-.360 25-30 HR guy then a moving Guti play makes great sense. Think of Guti in Yankee pinstripes...woudn't that be a perfect match. Or chasing balls in Fenway and denting the Green Monster.
Branyan: I was wrong. There, I admitted it. Sign him for two years. Make a mistake against him and just turn and stare 470 ft into right field. Eventually you'll see the ball.
Adam Moore: I don't see a star here. Heck, the only C who has impressed me this year is Josh Bard. But, he'll be the main guy next year.
Tui: I like the Pedro Cerrano comment. I'm not a Tuui seller yet. But we need to see a MLB bat...and more importantly, a MLB approach at the plate, over the next 40 games or I might be a seller. Sit Tui down next to Branyan after each and every Tui or Muscle AB. Let Russ coach him on the meaning of "stalking!"
Josh Wilson: I really like him. I do. I can live with him. He's cheap, dependable, not Yuni, and not a terrible AB type of guy. I can live with him at SS for 150 games. I like him.
Lopez: Still the most popular M's whipping boy (although Figgy is catching up). We're seeing his absolute worst year....the worst one he wll ever have in the majors. But he hasn't yapped about the manager or the switch or his teammaes and by all coaches accounts he's a model type guy. I suspect he's traded.....but the thing I hate about that is that it means Figgins isn't. Crap! I like Lopez. Imight keep hhiim...unless Figgins went at the same time.
Here's Z's dilemma. Do I admit my$9M Figgins mistake and dump him now or this winter (maybe throwing some cash into the deal) or do I hope he rebounds to his historical highs (for which I am paying him) next year, knowing that if there isn't a bounce he is one of the reasons I get fired?
Z's answer? Keep him. BAAAAAAAAAD answer. That means we're stuck with a guy i have grown to loathe. To quote Slim Pickens in Blazing Saddles, "I am depressed!"
OK. Trade Guit for a young arm. Saunders goes to CF. Find a Cust-ish like LFer. (Wilson?) Either Hulett or Ackley starts the year at 2B. Keep Lopez. Send Chone to Pluto, or some place further away. Or Trade Lopez to a short porch city and get a young arm and live with Hulett or Tui at 3B. Smoak is at 1B. Ichiro! in RF. Branyan as your Yoda/mentor/masher/clubhouse enforcer/judge. Somebody named Wilson at SS. Moore and Bard wearing the tools of ignorance. Lots of young arms including the Big Guy, Fister, Vargas, Pineda and whoever you get for Guti...
Get a manager with a history of developing talent.
Slogan: the future looks WAY bright.
That Mariner team I would adore.
Moe
I think Guti's actual value is a lot higher than his trade value. I would just not trade him. His salary makes him one of the Ms most valuable commodities.
With only a coupla minutes, can't even get started on that smorgasbord :- ) but particularly fancy your take on Z's dilemma.
If he's skating on thin ice, the Figgins signing can define him if he's not careful. The trades didn't cost the suits money. It's the zeroes on the dotted line that they'll be thinking of.
Is what if he's caught in a Safeco whirlpool that's going to suck him to the Atlantic Trench?
As Lopez and Beltre were?
Beltre and Lopez are far better players than they showed in Safeco, but they weren't going to demo that value until they were gone...
Grand Theme here would be, trade those RH guys before they get deeper and deeper below the surface...
Or not :- )
Maybe, but his splits at Safeco have been better at Home in both '09 and '10. Hes a line drive hitter with good HR distances. I just don't think he'll suffer the Safeco death that others did.
His swing is fine for Safeco, hes just having a terrible year (and still on pace for a 3 WAR season).
I would not trade him when his value is at his lowest. Hes underrated anyways and you're unlikely to get good value.
Hadn't noticed that his home splits are holding up. That's good.
However, IIRC, didn't Lopez have pretty nice home splits for a while before finally toppling into the hole and getting eaten by fire ants?
Jose Lopez career 676 OPS Home.
Career 721 OPS Away.
No real pattern in the stats, hes just kind of always been better on the road.
Lopez is just a little worse at home...there's no "Safeco disease" going on with him...he just hits a bit worse at home, primarily because his BABIP on GROUNDERS is worse at home (the long infield grass turns a lot of his singles into GIDPs)
Why is Kotchman still playing 1B? Because Seattle is today - (unlike the last decade) actually running a DEVELOPMENTAL system.
Okay - please everyone raise their hands who believes Tui's long-term outcome makes sense as a first basemen? Anyone? Bueller?
Playing Tui at first is something you if you HAVE to -- because you opted not to DL your lame-back 1B option - and it's either him or Jamie Burke. (oh, wait -- Jamie Burke DID play a game at first last year).
Why not play Tui at first? Because that will only HURT Tui's ultimate path to success. It truly amazes me how so many really, really bright people continue to treat playing a specific position in baseball is so trivial that it's perfectly fine to just throw anyone out there to play 1B -- the silent assumption being - (who cares how dreadfully bad he plays defense - he can IGNORE looking like a complete idiot because he doesn't know where he's supposed to go on a ball to "X" -- or because he gets cross-footed and doesn't make it to the bag at all on what otherwise would've been a routine 1-3 play).
Every ounce of energy he puts into learning a skill that he will have ZERO use for - (if he succeeds in baseball) - is energy he is NOT putting to the skills that he will need. You've just made his development slower - and more likely to fail.
But -- aside from that -- playing Tui at first is a bright green neon sign that Figgins was *RIGHT* to simply not bother to covering any bag on any play? Why? Because the season is over - defense doesn't matter. We're just taking live batting practice every day - (sorry Felix, Jason, Doug ... no need for you guys to work hard - we don't care how much the defense behind you sucks, anyway -- go ahead give up 10 a night - that'll make your next contract more manageable anyway).
If you want a guy to try a new position - fine - do it in the minors -- or, if he's ALREADY done developing as a hitter, give it a try during Spring Training -- you might get lucky, and only lose 10% of his hitting production for a month or two - (or maybe not). But, it at least HAS to be a position you're willing to have him play long term, if he becomes competent at it.
Carp *WAS* up -- and failed miserably. Smoak *WAS* up - and failed miserably. Why aren't they in Safeco? Because the guys who are actually trying to DEVELOP their skills believe *THEIR* development is (currently) better served in AAA. And the reality that they'll be arriving in the bigs in less than a week likely plays some part in this - (especially with a team that is in first place - and DOES have something to play for). For me, it seems utterly contradictory to yank them OUT of a winning, team-oriented experience and drop them into the karmic cesspool that is the current Safeco clubhouse.
If your focus *IS* on development - (and mired in last place, it should be), then you do what is best for each individual developmental project. You do NOT throw Pineda into Safeco just to face some real MLB bats, if you have a genuine belief that he's thrown enough innings already. You DON'T yank Smoak back up and throw him to the lions just because he's hitting .830 in AAA if you don't believe he's ALREADY fixed what it was that had him hitting .500 on his first Mariner tour.
The decision to play Kotchman isn't ABOUT Kotchman. It's about what is best for Smoak and Tui and everyone else in the organization that might be a part of something special in the future. Just because Kotchman isn't in that future does NOT make playing anyone else there *THEIR* best development plan.
But, of course, has Seattle actually ever developed a successful hitter? AROD and Griffey weren't developed. They just "were". The entire Bavasi era was the Peter Principle gone wild -- "promote them until they suck". Why would anyone in Seattle actually understand the ups and downs and growing pains of REAL player development? They've never seen it.
The WONDERFUL reality in Seattle is almost none of the "likely" breakthru talent *IS* blocked by anyone of note. (well, perhaps Ichiro blocks the next RF candidate - Mike Wilson?)
But, the ultimate truth about "successful" clubs - whose prospects come up and ARE productive, and hitting .800 from day one is NOT that they are great talent evaluators. It's that they don't stunt - (or kill) - player development by simply throwing their prospects into the deep end and seeing if they drown. Atlanta's PLAN was for Heyward to start 2010 in the minors. Why? Because at the end of 2009, they didn't believe he was ready for the majors. They saw SOMETHING that told them - "this brownie is not done baking." But, in Spring Training, whatever it was that they thought needed fixing, didn't any more.
Now - it's fine for fans to think the developmental coaches for their team are idiots - (and with Seattle, there's plenty of data to support this from the last decade). But, I see a distinct difference in the way Seattle is handling its prospects since Z arrived. And given the success of the Milwaukee developmental program - I have every reason to believe that these choices are making Seattle MUCH better at development.
Why did people want to see Pineda and Ackley in Safeco this year? Because they've seen other clubs move "some" players from AA to MLB successfully - so why not these guys? Because those other teams don't make those choices JUST because they suck at the majors - but because they were confident THIS prospect is ready to make that change. Brian McCann jumped from AA to the majors - Heyward, too. But, Chipper, Furcal and Javy Lopez all got a year in AAA. But Andruw only got a dozen games in AAA.
It's not a one-size fits all world. Seattle will KNOW it is making progress in player development when it's prospects DO start showing up in the majors and start posting .800 OPS figures from day one. Not every one -- but some.
Whether I agree with that premise or not, it's a logical answer.
You think it would hurt Matt Mangini to take AB's in Safeco right now?
Carp, still, at this time of day?
There's no OF, say Wilson, who could feasibly benefit from ML AB's?
......................
Playing Kotchman at 1B is a 100.00% waste of the available development time. I suppose that every alternative actually HURTS your org, but that sounds a bit funky to me.
Still, thanks for the proposal.
acknowledge, and so is Lopez'.
In some other park, Lopez would be classically-conditioned to swing naturally, and it would be reflected in his development.
Interesting stuff.
You can drop Kotchman though and play Branyan at 1B. That opens up audition time at DH.
Theres no reason to hold onto Kotchman. There hasn't been for months now.
And here's why:
Great franchises during their lousy seasons, play a lineup that is competitive today AND looks to the future. How does 40 more games of Kotchman do either?
Carp, Mangini, Smoak...all will be better produces than Kotchman. All will actually be Mariners next year. Playing Kotchman simply gives AB's to a player womebody else will ahve next year. IF Kotch could hit a lick you could argue that he is part of the most competitive team they can field this year....But it is a tough argument to make that he is clearly superior to Carp, or Smoak...or M. Wilson (playing Branyan at 1B). Kotchman has been a disaster. He's a fine citizen and by all accounts a hard worker...but a god-awful bat at 1B. Many peoply think that jack Wilson, who may be one of the best SS gloves (a very important thing) in in league, is not valuable in the lineup becasue of his bat. Well...if Wilson isn't than Kotchman isn't close. If playing purely defensive 1B guys was a winning strategy then we would have been seeing it for the past 100 years.
Developing a team means you have to look at your players agains the caliber of folks they will play against. 120 more AAA Ab's does nothing for Carp or Wilson or Smoak. 120 more kotchman AB's doesn nothing for the M's.
Seems simple.
moe
I don't agree. Not desperation to bring guys up and give them a taste. There is an angle which you don't acknowledge, Sandy. There exists guys in the system who are org. filler. They are relatively few, and for the most part, don't know it. The reward for busting your butt and succeeding in the minors is a call-up, and that is a big part of the motivation for the kids. Ditching that system puts a bad taste in the orgs. talent pool.
And I'm not too sure that Seattle has failed miserably at development, their draft picks that were notable mostly pitched, with the predictable flame-out attrition rate. We can argue about whether they should have been, and should be in the future looking at position players with high draft picks, but....
Last point. Goes with the rest. There is such a thing as too much baseball for a youngster. But not the youngster we traded Cliff Lee for, he needs to come up at the end of the week, and hit until the end of the year. This guy HAS to perform, I think he will, and some added pressure on him won't hurt.
I would love to watch a baseball series between the Raineers and the Mariners, as long as the pitching staff was divvied equally between the teams. Everyone reads the TNT, Chaney stadium is sold out, and everyone wants to hear the latest on all of the big mashers, and monster prospects down in Tacoma. The Raineers are so good, they are afraid to call any of them up, because it might upset team chemistry!
People are getting behind the Raineers in a big way, and all of those big hitters are making big hits and winning ball games. Why is everyone excited about Tacoma? Because, excepting the pitching staff, the Raineers are better than the M's, and everyone knows it. The Northwest is rabid for good baseball. You like players with plus power, and good patience? Tacoma has em. You like players who can mash the ball? Tacoma has em. OBP vs. Slugging? Most of us would settle for either one; There are players at Tacoma with both!
Z should swap the entire middle of the order. I call them the Ofers. Lopez, Kotchman, Gutierrez vs. Ackley Smoak and Halman. How about it?
I understand there is a special mathematical formula called "win shares" that has Franklin Gutierrez as a plus baseball player. The M's should use that formula to hype his value this off season, and maybe trade him for the number 4 starting pitcher the M's lack.
This has been a good read, good thread, and good start for the off season.
Halman would hit about .180/.220/.380 in Seattle with 2 K per game. His eye is attrociously bad and his swing is HUUUGE. I made a post earlier this year about the hard-hitting play-off-bound Prince William Cannons of 1995. One of those players made a big impact in the big leagues...several were fringe guys...that's IT. Yes, that's class A, but prospects are just prospects until they actually hit in the show. I think about 2/3 of the Tacoma line-up would hit significantly WORSE than Casey Kotchman or Franklin Gutierrez.
And you hit the nail on the head, Matt.
Whether right or wrong - "at this moment" - Seattle agrees with you.
Personally, I just think many have forgotten what has actually ALREADY happened in 2010.
Kotchman lost his starting role in June, when mostly Carp took over. Carp didn't get much of an audition - but he hit .167/.265/.200 (.465) while starting, and then they even started Josh Wilson at first for three games, and then went and got Branyan.
Branyan took over at first for all of 4 games, before suffering some minor health issues, at which point Bradley's health issues got bigger - so Branyan took over DH, (to save HIS back).
Kotchman was starting at first for about a week (with Branyan at DH), when the club snagged Smoak, who immediately supplanted Kotchman as the primary 1B. Of course, in the second half of July, Smoak hit .159/.169/.270/ (.439) in his initial run, and was sent to Tacoma end of July.
With Wak gone - Tui actually got some starts at 3B - (his actual position) - and Lopez (currently hitting .606 compared to Kotchman's .651) got a little time off.
So, why is Kotchman playing? Because Bradley is on the DL, so it makes SENSE to play Branyan (and his only barely better than Sweeney back), at DH. That - and in the month of July, Kotchman actually hit .954, while NEITHER of the "future" guys the club tried posted a .500 -- neither was ready, (based on the club's actions).
Tui isn't a 1B -- he's never going to be a 1B -- so it makes little sense to play him there (as a strategy for either winning games or developing him as an MLB player). And, of course, Tui started getting more PT in LF after Saunders got hurt.
Well, Carp is hitting .209 in August (.704 OPS), so I'm not getting a really great vibe that he's "fixed" what sent him down at the end of June.
Smoak is hitting .232 (.795) with 20 Ks in 82 ABs for August. He's stalking pitches (16/20 eye), and hitting dingers (5 in August), but still has some obvious flaws in his game. Moreover, he's only been down a month - and when rosters expand you can bring him up without any thought about who to dump over the side to make that move.
Is Lopez REALLY viewed as a significant part of the Seattle future drastically more than Kotchman? Kotchman is out-hitting Lopez. Tui is a 3B, not a 1B. Kotchman has two more HRs in 130 fewer PAs. They're barely a year apart in age - and their salaries are nearly the same.
Smoak and Carp both got shots - and failed badly. Is the argument really -- "it's been a couple of weeks - try them again - what have we got to lose?" Because that's what it sounds like to me -- and that, to my ears - sounds a whole lot like desperation, not player development.
Me? I think if Bradley and Branyan could've both gotten healthy - Kotchman would've been watching from the sidelines -- (oh, wait - for the week that was true - Kotchman WAS watching from the sidelines) -- not that I would've necessarily agreed with that choice, (being that Kotchman is hitting a teeny bit better than Bradley, too). From my perspective, if you don't have a prospect READY to audition, then you're best served (developmentally), by putting the best role model you've got into the position until you do. (Kotchman vs. Bradley as role models ... hmmmmm).
Hey - the team did put Josh Wilson at first for the 3 days Jack Wilson was healthy. (Of course, Kotchman is hitting better than Josh, too).
In the end, I can only find ONE player in the entire organization (who isn't hurt), that one could actually make a legit argument to start at 1B over Kotchman. That would be Langerhans - who started a few at first - and has had a quietly productive year - and was utilized way too infrequently back when his eye was really zeroed in. Of course, Kotch has shown a lot more power and is 3 years younger ...
In the end, Kotchman is starting at first, because all of the other legitimate choices to start at 1B have either already failed or gotten hurt. And in a few days, after rosters expand, Kotchman likely gets to watch most of the games from the bench the rest of the way anyway.