Quo Vatimus?

Latin to English Translation: Where are we going?

I've been a Mariner fan since 1991 - the year I attended my first big league game at the Kingdome. I've seen good years, aweful years, and everything in between. When you devote 20 years of your life to loving something almost as much as you love anything else in your life, you never want to say goodbye. But I have to ask...Quo Vatimus?

The tableau that perfectly expresses the reason for my newfound hopelessness when it comes to the Mariners is that of Jack Zduriencik announcing the firing of Wakamatsu. All accounts indicate that the man with the confident, prepared, demonstrative stare in previous executive press conferences was nervous, uncomfortable and, in the aftermath, short with reporters. Meanwhile, Chuck Armstrong and Howard Lincoln sat confidently with their arms crossed like a parent watching his son apologize to the neighbor for breaking their window. We don't anything with absolute certainty, but here's what I gbelieve happened:

1) Zduriencik was given free reign to select his manager when he arrived, but his list of acceptible candidates had to be approved by the committee. He chose the man he believed was most likely to implement his vision...that vision being a stars and scrubs rapid roster rotation plan. It worked for the Brewers - his former employer - and it worked for the As - Wakamatsu's former employer.

2) Wakamatsu proceeded to SUCK. He completely failed to show enough flexibility and quick thinking to rotate ineffective players into and out of roster spots until better stopgaps played their way into the job. In fact, the sunny, happy, 2009 clubhouse was still run by entitled veterans and guys were still given tremendously long leashes. Look at the bench at bats on that 2009 team. Only INJURY allowed for young (or AAAA) players to get any real PT.

3) Zduriencik sat furiously watching his plans go up in smoke due to ineffective managing, but intended to wait on firing Wak until the offseason, when better candidates could be found. He wanted to keep Daren Brown where the club needed him long term (AAA)...with Brown promoted, he knew he was probably going to lose him to another big league organization (generally, once they get a shot at the bigs, guys don't accept demotions).

4) Armstrong and Lincoln...believing their previous opinion that rookie managers were too risky for their business had been vindicated by the disaster that was 2010, called a meeting and told Zduriencik that Wak and his coaches were fired...there was no cooperation in that decision...he was simply told. When he arrived, he was promised autonomy...he's no longer getting it.

5) The next manager will be a committee hire and Z will have only an advisory roll in the decision.

Given the level of deep intelligence, preparation, business acumen, people skills, and commitment to winning that Zduriencik has shown, I refuse to accept the notion that the team failed in 2010 because Z was an ineffective GM. The problem goes much further. This team is run by men who know not one darned thing about baseball, but think because they have a good understanding of business, that they can master baseball. They treat their baseball people like a Japanese floor manager treats assembly line workers...with a totalitarian iron fist. They force baseball decisions that have slowly ruined this franchise and refuse to take responsibility for or learn from their mistakes. Just since 2004, let's name some of the bad trades and free agent decisions that can be blamed squarely on the front office:

January, 2004: Carlos Guillen's nightclub lifestyle and subsequent TB angers the Mariners. They want model citizens, not drunken carousers who get infectious diseases in Latin America. They order newly appointed puppet-GM Bill Bavasi to get rid of Guillen, confident that they can sign Miguel Tejada to play short. They were employing a strategy that worked for Pat Gillick (Aaron Sele and Bret Boone, for example)...lowball the big free agent intentionally...when he declines, laugh in his face and tell him to come back when he can't get a better offer. When the Os spent "stupid money" (as Lincoln called it) to get Tejada, the Mariners' one-dimensional plan went up in smoke and Bavasi traded Guillen for no good reason...for no good return under orders from the bosses...he had to take Rich Aurilia in a desperate last second grab to plug the hole at short.

June, 2004: The Mariners, tired of Freddy Garcia's bad behavior and inconsistency, order Bavasi to trade the Chief as sono as possible. Bavasi gets what he can, but all three of the pieces he acquires utterly bust in Seattle and better research and planning would probably have prevented this.

January 2005: The bigwigs tell Bavasi that he can't rebuild...he has to show some sign that the team wants to get right back to competing. He signs Richie Sexson and Adrian Beltre...the two biggest names he can lure in a very weak free agent class. Both players are deepluy flawed choices for this particular team but he has little choice.

December 2005: After Rafael Soriano is caught cheating on his wife (and some stories hint that there may have been multiple marriages involved), the club enacts its' zero tolerance policy once again and orders Bavasi to get rid of the team's best reliever. All of MLB knows Bill has to turf the kid with the golden arm and he gets lowballed at the winter meetings. Reluctantly, he takes the only offer that might net him a piece he can use...Horacio Ramirez. A deal we all knew was horrible when it was made.

July 2006: Bavasi makes a pair of deals in a desperate attempt to save his job and get the Mariners to the post-season...moving Shin Soo Choo because his manager (appointed by the committee) refused to play him after one single error and Asdrubal Cabrera to the Indians for veterans having lucky-good seasons as part time players.

June 2007: Mike Hargrove - admittedly not my favorite manager - resigns under a cloud of suspicion that Ichiro campaigned with the front office to have him removed (the two never really got along) in favor of John LcLaren. McLaren proves to be WAAAAYYY too emotional and irrational for the job and the Mariners' one shot at the playoffs in '07 goes up in flames (officer...I believe we've found the source of the fire...it originated in the bullpen). Ordinarily, even ichiro's complaints would fall on deaf ears in most franchises...but the Mariners were also trying to get him to sign a contract extension and desperately wanted him as the face of the franchise.

2007/2008: Mariner brass go on record saying that Bavasi is on the "hot seat"...he scrambles to save his job by picking up as many entitled veterans as he can as fast as possible in a desperate big to avoid any chance of the team having a lousy season...he at least wants them to put up a fight. The aging behemoth collapses and loses 100 games. THUD.

2009/2010: Ken Griffey Jr. rejoins the Mariners...both of his contracts were mandated from the front office and both were bad baseball business...a real DH might have saved this club.

EVERY YEAR: The Mariners set a budget (a good thing in a business) that is unreasonably low given their revenue and future growth potential. Their budget is, in fact, so inflexible that they miss countless opportunities to get free agents in weaker market seasons and while trying to maintain a profit...manage to clobber the team's hopes of growing. We could have had Miguel Tejada, Vlad Guerrero, Alfonso Soriano, and many many others we tried to acquire...2010 could have been so much better if Z weren't forced to accept guys like Kotchman rather than make aggressive bids for better options like Adam Dunn.

In the end...I see no sign that the Mariners are learning at all...no sign that they even care to learn how to build a winning team. In the end...I am left wondering if this franchise will ever take its' commitment to the fans seriously. Where are we going? To me...after all these years..it seems like we're circling the parking lot of Disney World and calling that our vacation while the Red Sox and Angels and Twins and Cardinals and Yankees and Braves and Padres and Dodgers and Rangers and White Sox and Phillies and Rays get to go inside and ride the Matterhorn and Space Mountain.

Why do I invest my hope every year in a team that doesn't give a flying bag of dung what I think of their product as long as soccer moms keep showing up and spending 150 bucks so their kids can get a pic with the Mariner Moose and they can talk on their cell phones for three hours? I'm left with only one idea...

The Mariner fan community keeps me here. Well I can get that without getting passionately involved with the Mariners. I'll still follow the team from a distance, but they are wasting my time and raising my blood pressure and I get NOTHING out of fruitlessly hoping that they'll ever field a winner. I will always live in hope that the team will one day have better owners or at least that the owners will realize their model doesn't work. In the meantime...I am going to try to find a team to root for that has a direction.

Comments

1

Qualities I need in a sports team:
- Emphasis on playing fundamentally sound, smart baseball (because this is the type of baseball I most appreciate)
- ability to hold onto at least a few of their iconic players (because it's no fun getting attached to players and then losing them...even if the team competes)
- commitment to excellence, rather than family fun night at the park garbage
- financially somewhat stable...no huge debt problems or generally-known-as-stupid GMs throwing money away on bad contracts
- not a former rival of the Mariners (because I can't get emotionally excited about rooting for a team that I've spent 20 years thinking of as an enemy)
- not a giant market team (because this feels soulless to me)
ITEM 6: ELIMINATE the Yankees and Red Sox
ITEM 5: ELIMINATE the Angels, Rangers, As and Orioles (along with the Red Sox and Yankees - already gone)
ITEM 4: ELIMINATE the D'Backs (major debt problem - they had to throw away Haren just now), Marlins (cyclic firesales = no fun), Astros (recurring debt problems, stupid GM), Tigers (continuous bad contracts and financial stupidity), Giants (Sabean = moron), Brewers (new stadium bump aside, financially struggling), Padres (no revenue...San Diego doesn't give a crap about baseball), Royals (TIIIINY payroll, incredibly stupid management), Blue Jays (had to punt their best player, Rios, and got nothing in return...very bad sign), Nationals (improving situation, but so far, no real financial commitment to DC), Indians (after nice run in the 90s, all the talent left their FO and they forgot how to win or make money), Mets (worst big-market front office EVER)
ITEM 3: ELIMINATE the Cubs, Rockies, Mariners (sigh) and Pirates
We're down to:
Tampa Bay
Chicago (AL)
Minnesota
Philadelphia
Atlanta
St. Louis
Cincinnati
LA (NL)
8 teams to choose from.
I'm apt to remove the White Sox from the list because their fans are obnoxious and their announcers annoy the heck out of me. I'm apt to remove the Braves even though they fit all of my characteristics because I spent my life hating the Braves for having national TV coverage when no one else did...LOL
That would leave the Rays, Twins, Cards, Reds, Phillies and Dodgers on the short list. I tried to get behind the Phillies in 2007...it didn't stick because I have too many friends who are Mets fans and I go to Mets games all the time. :\ The Rays and Twins appeal to my love of underdogs, but they have a history of failing to keep their players long term. It would be fun to root for the Dodgers just to spite Angels fans...LOL
Not sure...might try watching some games involving all six of my remaining candidates and see if anything catches my eye.

2

I think you understand it perfectly. "We" aren't the target market for the M's. Suzy the soccer mom from Puyallup is. Once you understand that, pretty much everything makes sense. The team is managed from the top level with Suzy in mind. If the middle and front line management can manage to win with that focus - and it's not impossible - that is fine but Suzy and her family enjoying the occasional ballgame is of prime importance.
 

3

The Ms' brass don't think losing 100 games is bad as long as the place remains a trendy spot to take your kids so you don't have to actually think of things to do with them for three hours.  The Mariners are like supervised daycare.  The games don't matter in the slightest.
I can't cope with that.  I have to find a baseball team that still cares about winning.

4

...I'd say I have to ELIMINATE the Twins and Rays on the grounds that they fail my ITEM 2 (keeping their talent sometimes).  The Mariners would fail that one too, these days, but that's neither here nor there since they got eliminated on ITEM 3.
In terms of my ITEM 1...last time I checked, the Dodgers, Cardinals and Braves were more consumed with fundamentally sound and intelligent baseball and the Reds and White Sox have been more of a brassy, feast-or-famine type of offense (and among the worst defenses around for the most part over the year)...I think I would eliminate the Reds and White Sox on ITEM 1 and give the Phillies, Cards, Braves and Dodgers a chance to impress me.

5
Taro's picture

Why not go for the Braves? Sandy hangs around here, and they've got a better long-term outlook than some of the other teams.

6
Jpax's picture

I would think the Dodgers are a big, big market team (LA).  I think your analysis comes down to one strong midwest team that has always historically been good and is a rabid baseball town - St Louis.

7

Cardinals or Braves in the NL, Twinkies in the AL because despite financial challenges, they do appear to be well run. I grew up a Dodgers fan, but since the O'Malley's sold it hasn't been the same.

8

It's a shame the M's aren't well run, because it's a lot more fun to root for a team that has a chance but is not one of the big budget bullies. That way, when you get it done and beat the bully it's that much sweeter.

10

...they aren't run like they are.  Their payroll is not that big...that might be a strike against the Dodgers, actually.
Cardinals (rabid baseball town and a well-run franchise)...Braves (also very well run...but I would feel diry given my life of hating the Braves)...Twins (well-run org...though they can't keep their big players)...or maybe the Phillies (familial ties...my father was once a Phils fan).

11

... my recommendation would be ... The St. Louis Cards.
As with most kids - the Braves picked me more than the other way around.  In NC, they were as close as any franchise.  They also had Hank Aaron when they became "my" team.  But, mostly, it was the neighbor that I mowed the grass for - who had a baseball signed by the ('69, I think), Braves team.  For an 8 year old, THAT was something special.  (Only years later did my mom show me the ball signed by the '61 Yankees - else, I might have ended up - (gasp) - a Yankee fan!)
But, to be totally honest - for me - the Cards embody the "Best" traits of what any pro sports franchise should be.  They don't just "sell" a team - they BREED loyalty and good will both with fans and with players.  They don't spend foolishly, but they'll open the wallet when needed.  They balance decisions based on current and future considerations.  They develop stellar talent from within - and trade for solid talent when needed.
They work hard to be good and stay good - but don't panic when things go awry.
==========
As for Seattle.  Maybe they are beyond hope.  But, for me, the situation isn't nearly as dire.  I think Z is a plus GM.  I think he simply hired a manager who was everything you could ever want in a manage on paper - but was simply not up to the task on the field. 
While the Griffey situation had a disasterous end - his departure only seemed to make the team worse, (which supports my position that Wak was never the manager, Griffey was doing the job of managing all along).  But, that aside - the Ms only have one more potential HoF rerun to be concerned about, (AROD), and THAT won't be happening in the next 4 years - so, from here forward, it'll be difficult to see how the front office can high stick Z again.
The #1 item where Z is making REAL strides is for the first time (ever?) the Ms have a farm system producing actual talent.  (Griffey and AROD don't count as "developed", since both were #1 picks - the result of being even worse than the more recent dreadful volumes of the Mariners have been).
 

12

I forgot that Cox is retiring after this year...lord knows who will replace him...but he won't be as good a manager...and I wonder how much of Atlanta's success was his doing.
And against the Cards...we have...Tony LaRussa...who may be the most infuriating tactical manager EVER TO SET FOOT in a ballpark.  He's comically bad with his compulsive micro-management.  And yet...he IS a brilliant talent wrangler...he does know how to field good defensive teams and get the most out of middling pitchers...he does seem to know his way around the egos of his stars...these are all good things.

13
Taro's picture

Why not the Phillies then? They may be the best in the short-term and the Ms should be relevant within 2 years IMO. Theres a lot of upside in the Ms roster. The Phillies can hold you over until then.

14

...back in 1995.  It got us nowhere.  It almost does not even matter what the club has in terms of players...the front office will find a way to screw it up.  Besides...there's a lot MORE upside on the rosters in Anaheim and Texas.

15

are starting to keep their franchise players now that they are in the new ballpark.  They did re-sign Mauer and I also believe Morneau is signed for a while.  I know they didn't keep Johan Santana, but it is looking like that was probably a good decision on the cost vs. value spectrum.  I don't remember who they received for Santana, but not every team can afford all of the superstars they develop and I'd rather keep Mauer for the long term over Santana.
Unfortunately, I don't think there is a perfect franchise out there for all of your qualifications.  Sometimes we have to put up with imperfections in people and things we love.

16

...there are, however, teams that must be disqualified for problems that I simply cannot cope with (the Mariners for being only interested in soccer moms and Disneyized baseball shows...the Yankees for being made of pure evil...the Pirates for being completely moribund...etc. I am looking for the best I can get...I am looking for a reaosn to fall back in love with watching the games...the Mariners have completely killed my joy of the summer routine. I can't watch their games....literally cannot stomach them...too frustrating and too boring. And I won't get hurt again...I won't invest in a franchise that doesn't invest in me. It's like dating...you get your heart broken too many times, and you have to change your pattern.

17

is pretty much unwatchable.  I'm glad I decided to stick with basic cable so I can't watch them and just listen to the radio broadcasts.  It makes this season a little more bearable because you can't see how bad they are.  For me, the radio is a nice background noise while I'm busy playing with the kids or whatever.
I feel your Mariner fan pain though - I've been through many unwatchable teams in the 25+ years I've been a fan.  I was just talking with a childhood friend and we agreed this season is just like a mid 80's team.  Langston/Davis vs. Felix/Ichiro with a bunch of vets at the end of their career and young players who probably won't make a huge impact.  I hope the 2010 team is closer to the 1988 team with Ackley/Pineda/Smoak on the way like the Jr./Randy/Edgar trio.

18

In 2004, the Mariners collapsed...they had a bad year...but I could still tune in occasionally because I thought they were going to reset things and go toward a younger club...I was wrong of course, but I still thought there were reasons to believe it was just a temporary set-back. In 2005 and 2006 they slowly improved at the veteran big league level and I figured they'd have a veteran team in place when Choo and Jones and Felix and RRS etc were all clicking. In 2008 they collapsed...but I thought that was msotly Bavasi/McLaren's fault (God I hated them)...but this year...they collapsed EVEN THOUGH they have a good GM making what appeared to be skillful moves given his budget constraints...they collapsed EVEN THOUGH they replaced most of the dead weight in the front office (below Lincoln/Armstrong)....this year...it's not just a bad year...it's blatantly obvious that it's a bad business model that's just going to keep happening. I can't do it anymore.

19

Matt,
Just pull a Peter Finch from the movie "Network." It might make you feel better. Then again, maybe it won't. Earlier this year I began for the first time to consider doing what you're talking about, dumping the M's from my heart and choosing a worthy team elsewhere to root for. I didn't do it, but I understand it. If they have another 95+ loss team or two in the next four to five years, if Z's turnaround ends up having no staying power, especially if the front office appears to be thwarting legitimately good effort on his part, I just might do it. But I'm going to give the Smoak-Ackley-Felix-Pineda group a shot first.

20

...I'm not dumping the Ms from my heart...they're like the ex-girlfriend for whom there will always be a place in one's heart despite recognizing that the match just isn't right...I want the Ms to do well...and the minute I get the sense that the front office is either changed in a major way or replaced from above (I mean Lincoln/Armstrong...not Z), I'll be here again cheering them on.
I haven't seen the movie "Network"...so...I don't get the refernece. What are you advising me to do?

21

I sympathize with your frustration, Matt, but I just can't follow your conclusions re the Mariners' business model or lack of desire to win. Regardless of whether the team could spend more, having a payroll that has been in the upper third of MLB teams should be more than enough to get the job done. The M's have poured upper-tier money into the franchise for the past ten years.
The biggest issue during the Bavasi years was not an unwillingness to jump into the free agent market or to trade for an all-star, but the extremely poor judgment in how much was given up to acquire any number of players. Silva, Beltre, Sexson, Vidro, Ibanez, HoRam, Bedard--regardless of how good some of these players might have been (or still are), EVERYONE AT THE TIME OF THEIR DEALS WERE MADE AND NOW thought the M's paid too much for their services.
There is still a lot of talent on this team, and even more is knocking on the door. I'm one who has optimism even for the 2011 team--the team faces essentially the same high variation dilemma that we had at the end of last year.

22

Bavasi went and overpaid for a bunch of middle-tier players because Lincoln and Armstrong saw Gillick do that successfully and thought if they put Bavasi on the hot seat, they could beat him into excellence.  The result was a team with no clear direction.  They spent lots of money and picked a whole bunch of players that didn't make any sense for the franchise...didn't compliment each other etc. because they were the best available that we could lure to Seattle and afford to sign.
Based on how Bavasi acted in LA...I don't think his prefered baseball strategy was to buy all the mediocre free agents.  He felt he needed to improve stoploss and "lock in" production at as many positions as possible to keep his job because his bosses were breathing down his neck all the live-long day.

23

At your office, open a window that faces the public, stick your head out, and scream "I'm mad as hell, and I'm not going to take it any more!" Do it several times.
Yeah, I get that your heart can come back if How Li and Chuck-O The Clown depart the scene.

24

Venting does no good if the source of your stress comes back every night. Or at least every time the bosses open their fat friggin' mouths and say one more meaningless platitude while voiding their bowels all over die-hard fans.

25
mabalasek's picture

anaheim's system is the most hyped-up in all of MLB. ever since i started following baseball in 01, baseball writers and analysts have raved about the prospects that the angels have. it also doesnt help to have inside pitch selling to me that casey kotchman is the next hall of famer (man that was ugly!!!). who else do they have at that time? dallas mcpherson. jeff mathis. brandon wood. erick aybar. so ok santana turned out to be good. and so did kendrick. but i don't think that their success rates with prospects is any better than the other teams out there.
and now we all get that mike trout hype. i haven't seen him yet, but i don't buy it that he's the next big thing. how about texas? well they got the hype now, but it could be no more than what those early 2000 angels did get.
and one more thing. stick one more year. i have been following the high desert's games for almost 3 weeks now, and poythress, man he is on a different league right now. i've got a good feeling on him. i don't know how any of our prospects will turn out to be, but poythress will be very good for us. i haven't seen any mariner batter feared like poythress before, not after bucky mashed his way to the majors. 

26

So here is where I agree with you--the baseball as profitable business mind-set that Lincoln and Armstrong work from does not always translate well to the long term team management because it is results-oriented rather than process-oriented. I hear you. But to blame Bavasi's incompetence on them is misguided. Two-thirds or more of MLB GM's work under the same philosophy as the M's. Pressure to perform does not excuse any of the catastrophic deals of the Bavasi era.
I still believe Zduriencik is a good fit for the Lincoln-Armstrong management. Zduriencik was the GM who in his interview told executives that we could rebuild the team from the farm up, while still remaining competitive at the major league level. In two years, he has done just that. No one disputes the effectiveness of the 2009 team, and almost everyone (including yourself) was bullish on this year's team's chances.
And despite all of the disappointment of this year--THERE IS NOT ONE MOVE that I would rather have undone*. Every move has made us better or been a wash. And if the largest complaint about this current iteration of the team is that we should have signed Adam Dunn after 2008, well no thanks. Twenty-eight GM's also passed on that deal because long-term deals to old-man-style players are very risky. If it had turned out that Dunn couldn't hit AL pitching, or had he refused to DH, that contract would be yet another obstacle to contention.
*I consider the Morrow trade part of the Lee deal, and bringing Griffey back a second time was a minor thing until it was managed so ineffectively.
 

27
dixarone's picture

I'll add this in, although I get the feeling this thread may be losing itself amongst the various permutations and analysis being performed...but:
 
Toronto Blue Jays
 
entered the league same year as the Mariners, so you'll always have the ability to cross check past records and performance
young, accessible GM...seemingly bright, and committed to building through any means necessary...with an eye to the farm
committed ownership - will spend when warranted now, after some lean times in the not so distant past...your point about dumping Alex Rios is well taken, but at the time that happened, it really was a dump - people were laughing at Chicago picking up that waiver claim. Rios was horrible that year, and going back 18 months even...and stunk it up most of the balance of the year with the White Sox. He's obviously turned a corner this year, but not sure many saw it coming. Also, former GM made that move, so can't hold against current FO.
Only MLB team in Canada - you're not just rooting for a team, but an entire country.
Open air or closed roof stadium, not unlike the M's (ignore the turf issues)...will feel "just like home"
2 World Series victories under belt already...shouldn't be subject to "Cubs Syndrome" anytime soon
Decent radio and TV announcers...and a "graduate" of the Blue Jays TV crew is one of the current best in the business - Dan Schulmann.
I don't know...what else? Cool sky-blue retro uni's?
Blue Jays '10 are the "anti-Mariners" in terms of HR's...currently lead the majors
check out this article on the GM (admittedly from Blue Jays Pravda, but still illuminating as to his mindset: http://toronto.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20100819&content_id... )
 
Good luck!
 
dix

28

...I knwe Antropoulus was an unorthodox GM choice...and I know the Jays have dramatically changed their baseball strategy this season. Maybe this would be a good time to watch some Jays games and see what they're like. Perhaps they should be back on my short list.

29
Uncle Al's picture

From the article by Geoff Baker back on August 12, it appears that Armstrong is very nervous about getting caught meddling in Zduriencik's player decisions.

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