Seattle Sports Insider

Nick Franklin - Projectable Power? (7)

Posted by

8/30/10

Q. Wow, if Franklin has a Griffey swing and he's hit the ground running as a future #3 hitter ... why did Franklin slip to #27 overall in the 2009 draft?

A1. You're talking about the first round of an ML draft, and a 160-lb. teenage shortstop.

High school shortstops are indeed very unlikely to stick at SS in the majors. We read somewhere that the last three HS shortstops to start All-Star games at that positon were ARod, Jeter, and Royce Clayton in the 1980's. MLB franchises are well aware of this fact.

If you were talking about a college shortstop, where you'd have seen the footwork and body control at age 22, that would be one thing. But when you're talking about an 18-year-old ... putting him at SS in the majors is sheer guesswork.

Look, ML shortstops in the 21st century? They're waterbugs with cannons, freakish athletes. The speed of the game is unpossible out there, and the difference between Jack Wilson and Yuniesky Betancourt is just an arm's length most of the time.

It's all but impossible to look at a teenager and guess whether he's going to be the kind of magician that ML clubs need at short. I'm sure that the M's just got lucky, in that Franklin now looks like he'll stick. (That's nothing against them.)

............

A2. The prejudice against Franklin's "projectable power" was decisive. At the time Franklin was drafted, the scouts evidently wrote off his power -- and therefore his realistic chances to be an impact hitter.

I've tried to argue with low-minors coaches and scouts. Nothing against them; they can do things that you and I can't.

But forget about taking on their rules of thumb. For example, I tried to debate a minors coach about Tim Lincecum's height and, LOL, he was almost ready to come to blows. I'd bring up Pedro, Wagner, whoever... "LOOK JEFF. EXCEPTIONS EXIST. BUT THE ODDS ARE JUST WAYYYY AGAINST YOU. LINCECUM'S ONLY GOING TO BE GOOD IF HE'S VERY, VERY LUCKY. BET ON THE GUYS WHO HAVE A REAL CHANCE. NOW TALK ABOUT SOMETHING YOU UNDERSTAND." That kind of thing. :- )

It's quite apparent that something very similar happened with respect to Nick Franklin's ability to drive a baseball -- a glance at his frame and, fuhgeddaboudit, move on. This is still occurring with respect to Franklin: even right now, many field-level scouts seem to dismiss his ability to ever hit for authority in the bigs.

Comments

Franklin and the scouts

Maybe thats why there is such a big turnover in scouting every year. 5 area guys were fired in our area last year.
Nonetheless, it been fun watching this kid put those reports in the shredder. Reports that called him the worst pick in the first round. Reports that said he would never hit for average or power and that he lacked physical strength.
Who knows maybe he's just lucky. Lucky enough to tie a 49 year old Clinton franchise record for Home runs. Lucky enough to be the first player this year to reach the 20 - 20 - 20 plateau. Yea, that's probably what is, Luck.
Speaking of luck I bet the Padres, Astros and Dback's would love to have their 09 picks back...

cpoints Speed

I can see a lot of things being called luck. But 22 balls over the fence... how does that occur by luck?
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If there is a scout who can (1) look at Franklin's Griffeyesque swing, and (2) see the ball come off his bat, much less (coughcough) (3) be provided the explanation for the power in his swing... and that scout is (4) still unable to see the power, then there is a serious problem with the way the scout is evaluating.
I don't know what Griffey would have done if he'd weighed 180. But Mays and Aaron weighed 180.

Worst pick in the first round...

A pundit who offered that take, with authority?
It's not a capital offense, but it does *illustrate* the difference between the unprofessionals and Jack Zduriencik.
As CPB reminded yesterday, there is a huge information gap between the pros and the pundits. At least until a kid has spent some time in the minors.