POTD: Matt Mangini - Defense (part 2)

==== Play Two ===

The only other play to him, before Cindy and I bailed in the 8th, anyway:  a worm-burner three-hopper just a yard to his backhand side.

Not super hard, was hit briskly, but hardly smoked.  Mangini reached wayyyy down with a high backside and fully-extended arm, turned his chin a little bit away, turned his shoulder too far around, as if slightly anxious it might hop up and hit him -- and this kind of ball can't possibly bounce face-high.

The ball caromed off his hand, above the leather, over toward Chris Woodward who, amazingly, was on the hustle over as if he expected the ball to come out of the glove.  LOL.  Woodward alertly snipped the ball up and re-directed it (again) to 1B ... for a 5-6-3!   Now you know why Chris Woodward hangs around the bigs. 

Anyhow.  You know how Jack Wilson snugs his CG up against a ground ball, sticks his face into it, and absorbs it like a Gelatinous Cube enveloping a 1st-level paladin?  .... Not that.

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=== Two Plays ===

Just two plays, sure.   But in those just two plays you've got a full smorgasboard of complaints if you're an out-of-shape old man like Dr. D who treasures the opportunity to trash AAA ballplayers' athleticism.  On two plays you got your heavy feet, you got your stiff mechanical upper body, you got scared of the ball, you got teammates expecting weirdness, shall we go on?

We're not sic'ing the Styx hounds on him to drag him down to 3B condemnation, but you wanted an SSI cross-check on Mangini's defense and there y'are.

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=== Benchmarks Dept. ===

ML third basemen are going to make 12, 15 errors per season.  They get up towards 20 and you're annoyed.  Up over 20 and you've got a problemo.  You can't have a guy approaching 30, any more than you can have a catcher with two passed balls a game.  ... oh, wait ...

Right now, Mangini has 16 errors this year in 40% of a season at 3B, and if the scoring were tough, what would it be? 

... He's got 75 (!) errors in 330-odd games, 330 games being two years' worth.  Mangini's established level of boot-ka-bobs is 35-40 per season and holding altitude.

That's not the end of the discussion as such, but Mangini is 24 years old now, and based on the physical showing I've got to lean toward the idea that Mangini is a 3B like Russell Branyan was a 3B.

That doesn't mean he can't be your backup 3B (roto CI), doesn't mean he's doomed or any of that stuff.  But here's one guy where the switch to 1B isn't just purist knee-jerk.  Mangini is probly going to have to move.

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=== SABRMatt c-points Dept. ===

Tip o' the kelly to Matt, who warned that Mangini wasn't a viable option right now for the M's at 3B.

Sad but true.  If Mangini's in your future at all at 3B, he needs work.  Sigh. .... playing 1B/DH, the occasional 3B, that's different, of course.  I'd rather see Mangini at 1B than Kotchman, tell ya that.

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Part 3

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Comments

1

1) His K/BB suggests he'll be about a .210 hitter in the bigs right now. Granted, in Seattle that makes you the clean-up hitter (TIC), but normally...that won't hack it unless you have 45 HR power (see, Dunn, Adam).
2) Combine that with what would surely be a -20 or -25 UZR defensive game at third base and you're talking way...way sub-replacement-level.
3) And even if you moved him to first base...and even if his BA isn't as bad as I think it is...he's...AT BEST...a league average fielder at first and a league average bat at first...Kotchman is a gold glove first baseman, so you'd be looking at a push...tops...for switching to Mangini now. Or you could develop him in AAA some more and not rush him to the bigs when his peripherals say he's not ready.

2

1.  Though Mangini is hitting .300 with gap power in the PCL, an 0.33 EYE isn't going to translate to a .300 AVG in the majors, no way no how.  .275 would probably be a stretch. 
Good call :- )
2.  So, yeah, he'd be hurting the club at 3B right now.  Pretty bad, probably.
3.  If you're talking mediocre D and offense at 1B, certainly that's not going to improve the August 2010 M's.
....................
However, if you believe that Mangini is going to SLG .500 in the bigs some day, then some investment time could be arguable.
I don't know what the M's think of his bat.  I'm VERY impressed, though.  I believe that he will hit in the bigs.  Pretty well.

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