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MARC-O
We left off after four innings yesterday. Marco had been making do with a located 88+ fastball and an okay changeup, but ... like a klepto, when it got bad, Marco took something for it. In the 5th inning he came out spinning his curve ball, and during the 5th and 6th he got his 33-33-33 game rolling in proper fashion. The oh-so-pleasant outcome:
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M's up 9-4 in the middle of the 5th as we type this.
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M's OFFENSE
All Dr. D wanted for his baseball birthday? was nine hitters who would look at the wall the same way he looks at Olive Garden's potato soup. For five innings, they definitely served up refill after refill of peppery goodness. They being the M's, that is, not OG's cooks.
To be fair, Mike Fiers looked like it was his first game of spring training. If I recall correctly he spiked two or three pitches in the first couple innings, grooved fastballs and generally swatted at the catcher's return throws like he was his own least favorite person.
Liam Hendricks, their "opener," has a long ways to go to GET to first game ST form, and the pitch Ryan Dull threw to Tim Beckham looked 87 MPH, centered, letter high and generally 100% worthy of drawing a backup shortstop's pinwheeled bat flip.
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Regarding Sheffield and Crawford, and to a lesser degree Swanson and Dunn ... HQ also had a study, "When do Top 100 Prospects Get Promoted?"
Excerpting just a little bit of the study: If a Top-100 arm finished the last season in AAA, the odds were 86% he'd be in the bigs the next season.
The odds were 3-in-8 (38%) that he'd be up in the first MONTH. The odds were 50% for the first two months, and 75% for the first HALF.
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Shannon Drayer has a piece up on Kikuchi's unusual love for the American culture, among other things. For me that's a significant plus, that he loves American food, the way the American game is set up, and so forth. A comfortable player is a better bet than a disoriented one.
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A WORD TO THE PROSPECT-LIST UNWISE
A word to the wise ain't necessary; it's the ignoramus at SSI who needs your advice. As you know, there are two things Dr. D couldn't care less about:
1. The National League
2. National prospect lists
So you can just imagine how mighty Dr. D's erudition on J.P. Crawford was, before Crawford became a Mariner.
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SHOHEI OHTANI
Finished with a shellshocking 181 PX last year based on 22 HR per 326 AB, a .564 SLG, and a whole bunch of vaporized baseballs. You might recall last year we did a photo montage of the swing and opined it was the hardest, torquiest swing ever swung, easily harder than Griffey's or anybody's.
To me it is clear that Ohtani is the same thing as Stephen Strasburg -- if Strasburg could hit exactly like Aaron Judge.
Which is a weird, weird sight. In modern baseball, say baseball since 1947, there has never been anything remotely like Ohtani. It's like the Cambrian Explosion or a huge gap in the fossil record going straight from clams to cows. Rather than two or three Keischnicks and Owings shuffling about the tundra and then Ohtani, there should be a smoother line of hitters and pitchers, graduating up the ladder.
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YUSEI KIKUCHI
If you weren't watchin' TV the other night you didn't get to hear Bill "Lefty" Krueger's conclusion having watched Kikuchi this spring. "I think he's an All-Star caliber pitcher," sez Bill.
SSI will always bet on a lefty with a hot fastball and his game together. Supposedly Kikuchi even gets to 97, 98 at times:
Kikuchi's fastball averages around 92-94 mph, and he can reach 96-98 mph at times. That's not only unusual velocity among NPB left-handers, it's also above-average for the Major Leagues. In 2018, the average fastball velocity among left-handed MLB starters was 91.4 mph.
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HQ gives him credit for plus-plus deception, hiding the ball until the very last instant before release. The wipeout slider we've all heard about it. Frank Herrmann, ex-major leaguer now in Japan, says that in 2017 when Kikuchi was fresh (and running a 1+ ERA) hitters had "no chance." The games in Japan are on at 2:00 a.m., so set your DVR.
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From a Hey Bill in 2013:
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Thanks Sherm! - Jeff
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Zunino > Mallex : 8
Mallex is cheaper than Z, under control for longer, and a better player in all MID or LO scenarios. Only in the HI does Zunino win, based on the 15% chance (1) that for one year he manages to keep his swing tight and is a .850 OPS catcher who gets a few MVP votes. Still, the odds of this happening in the next two years are terrible, and if he did it this year we still might not make the playoffs, so who cares? Also, Heredia for Fraley is hilarious. One has upside, the other has none. Pure theft.
Paxton > Sheff : 5.5
If Sheff is the real deal, (2) or Swanson/DTW are useful, this looks better. But just in terms of how they look today, this seems about right for an ace with a short track record and Ferrari injury profile. Again, it looks better in the context of the rebuild, but in a near-vacuum the talent level of the org probably stayed about neutral. But I think there’s more upside than downside.
Diaz/Cano > Kelenic/Dunn : 6
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You can imagine what the Zeus trade was like for me. LOL. But it was actually the Edwin Diaz trade that put the kibosh on my rooting M's 2019.
That one was the one that felt like a tire blowout, 65 MPH twenty-three vehicles currently reported ... it was dumping the bullpen, that dispelled any illusions I was trying to maintain. At first glance and at 2nd, 3rd and further glances ... Diaz? Colome? Segura? What, are you going for an NBA lotto pick?
