July 2015
Pedro wannabe goes nuclear on the Twinkies
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/15
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9 Comments
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You know it, you love it, you ... you seem to prefer it lately to the actual Mariners. Can't blame you. But if you missed Friday night's Taijuan Storm, you missed a t'ing o' beauty.
SSI has grokked that you could 'sense the storm looming' on this kid. Friday, it broke on the Twins' lighthouse with Category V force. ... Is what happened was, before his last outing (ca. last Sunday) Robinson Cano had finally walked up to Taijuan and said, Kid, you're going to have to throw some curve balls. Taijuan threw 24 of them and figured out --- > that they work good.
Friday night, Taijuan went... Read More
Poor man's Randy Johnson, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/15
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9 Comments
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As of last winter, Shandler's* Baseball HQ outfit gave the following on Nick Wells:
3/4 stars fastball (86-92 MPH)
3/4 stars curve (77 MPH)
1/4 star changeup
Grade 8E = 10% shot to be an above-average ML'er
And the text commentary,
"Quick-armed" SP with long development in front of him
Lean frame (6-5, 175) that projects to hotter fastball
Strong delivery
Potential "plus" curve ball "with nice depth"
One to watch
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Last week, he was named the Appalachian League Pitcher of the Week after firing a 6-inning shutout* with two hits, no runs and 8 K's. He just turned 19 and has a Three True... Read More
M's hoping for a 2nd go-round at a Chris Snelling
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/15
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7 Comments
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To start with, here's the preferred metaphor for any SEA-NYY trade. Flores throws Ackley out at the plate. As y'know, we live to serve.
Assuming that Austin Jackson is gone after the year, then were left with Brad Miller or ???. We like Miller, but t's a GM's job to avoid ???, and now we've got Ramon Flores as the CF candidate of choice going into 2016. Of course, Flores has played more LF than CF, but hey. You could say that about Ketel Marte and Miller his ownself. Flores is 5' 10", 180 lbs. or so, and they've got the winter leagues.
Flores' calling card is --- > a HIT tool that... Read More
Rodney Redux?
Posted by jemanji on 07/30/15
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Baseball HQ captures the industry consensus for us:
Tall, lean pitcher who moved to pen in '14 and missed significant time with various ailments. Durability is a question.
Possesses explosive fastball with electric life and changeup remains plus offering that can miss bats.
Fails to repeat delivery and has trouble harnessing arm strength.
Upside still there.
.....
This is neither here nor there, but we had to smile at a tweet that labeled Ramirez as "sits 91-95, touching 98."
Pitch F/X has his fastball averaging 95.7 MPH for 2015, which would have him #15 in the majors alongside Wade Davis... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/15
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6 Comments
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Question came up earlier ... to what extent might a manager put a hitter into the lineup, or keep him out, based on a particular ump? TR asked that question of Matt, not me, but it's an interesting community issue, also.
Asterisk: as it pertains to Mike Zunino, the M's evidently give Zunino credit for +0.50 or even +1.00 in catcher ERA, and at that point his hitting malaise in the bottom half of the inning is engulfed by his contributions in the top half of the inning.
Asterisk two: as it pertains to hair-fine data that drive daily lineup cards ... this is a good way to find yourself... Read More
Be Afraid, baby
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/15
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3 Comments
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gnatto sez,
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doc, im not seeing a thumbs up option anywhere.
The other thing that would be nice is being able to click on the comments number at the bottom of the posts and when it loads it goes straight to the top of the comments rather than the top of the article, and in the article if you click that same comments number it takes you down to the top of the comments....
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The thumbs-up option, is top left in any comment, or is the editor the only one who is seeing this at the moment? Thusly:
Thumbs Up baby
I think (hope) next is the feature that turns a comment "green" for a certain... Read More
Could be the Rangers are suffering more, though
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/15
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2 Comments
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Such a maddening game.
Multiple hits from most of the lineup. A huge blast from Nelson Cruz. A plateau leap from Taijuan Walker. And a walkoff HR in extras from a kid you could make a movie out of.
It's all a giant magnifying glass that focuses the Sun on us hapless little SSI ants. Scurry away from this winning shtick as fast as your six little legs can carry you.
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We read about a stats professor who liked to challenge his STATS 101 frosh to a duel. He'd leave the room, have 40 students flip coins and record 100-sequence flips of HHTHTTHT on slips of paper. He'd have the other 40... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/15
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9 Comments
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SABRMatt with one of his best ever, which is sayin' a lot hobbitses:
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In three seasons of voters,
0 users have voted.
...and some were genuinely surprising that they passed. Stephen Drew, Nellie Cruz, Kendrys Morales, Michael Cuddyer
Generally, you either don't get a QO or you are good enough that saying yes would be OK with the offering team and thus you want more. The idea of the QO system is to tie compensation only to those players who it legitimately hurts to lose in free agency. It's working, I'd say.
And I would absolutely QO Jay Happ. That's not even a question for me.
.... Read More
Trade deadline a week from now
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/15
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4 Comments
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"Anonymous" wrote us a happenin' little e-book in the Shout Box. As he knows, such Shouts are always subject to echoes, so 'ave at thee, varlet. (About once every six months, SSI gets a new visitor who (1) delivers one interesting idea per sentence, (2) is easier than Amy Adams to get along with, (3) has an eerie sense of proportion and (4) is either Kevin Mather or some other b'wana who gets into Safeco on an entry badge. That's why we always encourage "anonymous" to sign is as "Guest123", so that we can herd the feisty amigos clear of him.)
We digress. Pulling the one quibble out that... Read More
Booms and Busts
Posted by moethedog on 07/23/15
13 Comments
I couldn't resist the image Doc. Looks like good stuff!
In 2009 Jack Z. got his first shot at a draft as GM of the M's. Those '09 guys should be MLB contributors by now, if he got it right.
The guys he picked in 2010 should be contributors in Seattle, if he got it right.
The guys taken in 2011 should be knocking on the door, if not here already. The best of the guys taken in '12 should be nearly here.
Draft picks from '13-'15 are pipeline guys and shouldn't be expected to be contributors at this stage. The guys taken in '13, however, have nearly two full years of work behind them. ... Read More
We've had a few
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/15
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3 Comments
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Bill James told a story that turned on a major light bulb for me:
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Hey Bill! What is the record for consecutive shutout innings *in relief*? I'm somewhat surprised that there are apparently no relievers on the list of the top scoreless inning streaks of all time. It is not all that uncommon to see a reliever put up an ERA near 1.00 for a season. It happens from time to time, at least. And it seems to me - maybe I'm wrong - that it shouldn't be that much more difficult to string together 45 straight 1-inning "shutouts" than it is to pitch five straight 9-inning shutouts. Am I wrong on that... Read More
Dr. D learns more from the denizens than they do from him
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/15
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13 Comments
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Hey Sammy! Howzit goin' amigo. Your observation,
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So I'm a noob. Just figured out what BABVA means...
But I was thinking just that watching Cano bat today. It was actually good to see him emotional about missing that 96 mph Feliz first pitch fastball down the pipe. He paced around behind the umpire and looked like he wanted a mulligan. Like wanted to be the one to put the M's ahead. Like he would have swung at ball 4 just to get another chance at a good pitch to hit, like you do in slowpitch. He is in the zone.
Hope it isn't too little too late...
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Blowers had an accurate comment on TV... Read More
... and for some guys, it does work
Posted by jemanji on 07/21/15
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3 Comments
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The M's played well again in Detroit. Four good games, and a 1-3 record. They used ta call this kinda thing "star-crossed." Nowadays we're not superstitious; we just realize that the 116-win season overdrafted our 100-year karma account.
J.A. Happ, our #5 starter, held a tough lineup to 4 hits in 7.0 innings. After 7, They: suppressed. We: 8 hits and 4 walks with a HR, only 5 K's. We had a lead, we had Lowe for the 8th and Smith for the 9th.
So why did the Mariners lose? Dr. D puts this one down to "We never score 8 runs." In every sport, you've got to have a nice percentage of... Read More
Baseball, hot dogs, apple pie and Chevrolet dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/20/15
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5 Comments
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The weekend series in NYY was played at the level of an ALCS. Just great baseball, all the way through. The M's lost by the odd run, but they put up a tremendous struggle.
Against terrific pitching, the Mariners took long looks at the ball and swung at few sucker pitches. They swung the bats with authority, fouled off tough pitches and forced some long at-bats. They consistently put plans together at the plate. The M's offense ... it's like Dudley Moore told Liza Minelli when his mom threw him out of the house and they inspected a slum on their new wages. "With some paint and TLC,... Read More
Let's make a run for more offense, not more defense
Posted by jemanji on 07/19/15
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11 Comments
Speaking of Jesus Montero ...
Dr. Detecto hopes you find it amusing that on Monday he might analyze Mike Montgomery to the point of his readers' nausea ... and then on Tuesday he will say something like "Who's this Johnny Cueto guy?" It's all part of the SSI fun. Some things interest us and other things, we pay zero attention to. Off the top of his head, Dr. D couldn't name three guys in the Ranger lineup. But he does demand the right to veto the M's roster moves.
What was I going to say ... on Friday, I had no clue what the Mariners' roster was. Don't know, don't care. OK, flip on the... Read More
OK, we're embarrassed
Posted by jemanji on 07/18/15
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6 Comments
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So dig this scenario:
McClendon had just reamed the M's out to start the 2nd half
Saying things like the ballclub had embarrassed our owners, our GM, our fans, etc, all year (his words)
M's faced against a monster opponent on their home field
If you want an explanation why this team was a monster on this night in this context, we live to serve
M's played sharply, crisply, with conviction and intelligence
M's, using their #7 starter against the monster's 26-0 Japanese starter, were impressively tied 3-3 after 6 innings
You can't fall behind, cuz Betances & Miller have made NY forget... Read More
er, excuse me, Franchise Four
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/15
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43 Comments
Originally posted June 15, 2015. - Ed.
......
During the Mariners-Giants game on Monday, they talked up the Giants' franchise Hall of Famers. I think they said Willie Mays, Willie McCovey, Orlando Cepeda and Juan Marichal ... this struck me as a super-cool "Mt. Rushmore" even though they snubbed Barry Bonds. The four players all played together (right?), were all diverse, were all names that I marveled at when first discovering baseball ....
....
Immediately you think of the M's Mt. Rushmore and let's start with Junior, Big Unit, ARod and Edgar. That rock face is wayyyyy, WAY too good for... Read More
M's have us all glued to the TV
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/15
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8 Comments
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JOHN McGRATH WROTE an interesting piece in the News Tribune the other day, calling into question McClendon's job. I think he started it by comparing the Mariners' players during the 10-3 Angels drubbing to --- > high school seniors on the last day of school (zero interest in the work, and total obsession with getting away from a place they hate). Brilliant.
There was another piece in the TNT, quoting Mariners stars to the effect that they'll be fine. Was it Felix, Cano, and Cruz? A bunch of quotes like "We just have to get our pitching and hitting together. We just need more... Read More
Dr. D finally admits he's a square
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/15
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23 Comments
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No baseball in this post. You've been warned. The Counselor says,
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If the Mariners continue to be uninspiring, I move that the blog addresses topics that are more worthy of finely delved shtick, such as underground oceans on Titan or Donald Trump.
Konspiracy Korner lives!
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/108812#comment-108812
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As you know, we live to serve. :- ) This following bit of whimsy might not be as interesting as The Donald, but it is one of my faves. As most of you know, I'm a spiritual guy. I'm not spiritual because of "good dreams," as C.S. Lewis... Read More
Are we havin' fun yet
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/15
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6 Comments
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MALAISE,
a general feeling of discomfort, illness, or uneasiness whose exact cause is difficult to identify.
"a society afflicted by a deep cultural malaise"
......
It is not enough to be a great player, said Bobby Fischer. You also gotta play great. Like all Zen aphorisms, it looks like it says nothing at first glance. Later on in life you find it to be a difference-maker. Having to choose between that one, and "don't bend your right knee," I gotta go with Bobby.
Two great pitchers, Felix Hernandez and Hisashi Iwakuma, pitched great to throttle the 1st-place Angels in games 1 and 3... Read More
Once they're stuck...
Posted by jemanji on 07/13/15
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2 Comments
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March 31 may have been the very last day on which the Seattle Mariners could accept a $5 or $10 garage sale offer on the pink flamingo that was Erasmo Ramirez. The Rays threw us back a bucket of paint and airsoft parts that was itself nearly a code violation, that being Mike Montgomery. The Shout Box pointed out Erasmo's brilliant success with the Rays:
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ROLE
IP
H
R
ER
BB
K
HR
PITCHES THROWN
Relief, to May 11
(Did lousy)
NYY 1, Rays 6 (entered rotation)
5.0
1
0
0
2
4
0
Get this: 68 pitches
BRAVES 3, Rays 5
5.0
2
3
3
2
5
0
80 pitches (not 100)
So he lost one, Oak 7-2
6.0
5
5
5
5
4... Read More
LoMo mostly lacks a 5th gear
Posted by moethedog on 07/13/15
If a game 55% of the way through the season can be a "must win," yesterday's game was of that ilk. Win and we take 3 of 4 from the Angels, head into the All-Star Break with some juice and begin to sniff the Wild Card race again.
Lose, and it foretells of the long and likely meaningless dog days of August-September.
We lost. I'm now resigned to a "wait 'till next year" stance. I will tie steelhead flies and look forward to deer season, but I won't dream of a playoff berth........much.
I do stand hard, btw, by my 3-week old assertion that we need a managerial change. By all accounts Lloyd... Read More
What Path Will The M's Take From Here?
Posted by DaddyO on 07/11/15
11 Comments
This is more a solicitation of opinions than an article.
When all is said and done and the season is over, which way do you think the Seattle Mariners will have gone from here?
Will they continue as a sub-.500 underachiever, presumably leading to the firing of Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, probably before season's end ?
Or will they improve somewhat, perhaps get to .500 or a little above but make no substantial move into the playoff picture?
Or will they, realize their potential, reel off some serious winning runs, and vault into the playoff picture?
Whatever scenario you envision,... Read More
Mariners' scrubs bash Decepticon punks to junk
Posted by jemanji on 07/08/15
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4 Comments
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Q. M's go down 3-0 ... and then the BOTTOM of the order erupts. 5 runs in the 3rd inning, and before there was a single out. Just one of those things, no?
A. Just one of those things, No. The lousy half of the lineup played really well for five at-bats in a row. It wasn't just Dr. D's interpretation, though of course that is unimpeachable. Blowers (one of the most accurate color analysts we've heard) remarked on the quality "approaches" as they occurred and refrained on it after the fact.
Thusly:
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1 LOGAN MORRISON, if facing a sidearm lefty you unnerstan', had (previously) as much... Read More
demoralizing to be on the Cheney Carousel this year
Posted by jemanji on 07/06/15
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5 Comments
We hope that Lloyd McClendon finds all comfort and peace in his bereavement leave. The Shout Box is also filled with well-wishing.
Some professions, when a disaster happens in your life they give you lots of time. Other professions, no matter what happens, you're back on the job two days later. All careers have some plusses and minuses, and you take the good with the bad. But I'm sorry that McClendon can't spend some more time away from pressure.
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MoeDawg sez, in the post one carousel horse to the right,
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#1. LoMo needs 1B help. He's hitting .439 vs. lefties. Uh.....that's his... Read More
Time's a wastin'
Posted by moethedog on 07/06/15
10 Comments
OK, we're well into July and the All-Star break is soon upon us. In case you haen't checked, we are 5 games out of the WC with 9 (count them!) teams ahead of us in that race. Well, 10 eams if you count the Yankees, who are only 1 game up on divisional three teams. Some of the teams ahead of us will get hot, some will go pffffft. But 86 wins still seems like a reasonable target for us to seek. Quickly doing the mah....Hmmm, lessee.....carry the one, square root of pi, log4...... shows that we have to go 48-32 the rest of the way to get to 86 wins.
We have to play some ball, guys.
.600... Read More
Happy Montgomery Day tomorrow
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/15
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6 Comments
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Dr. D gets more tired of analyzing losses than you do of reading about them. But, you wanna know what happened. Apparently 30% of you want to know what happened without watching the Mariners.
Some spot starter out of the A's bullpen -- who knows what his name was -- threw the ball almost precisely the way James Shields throws it on his best day. The scrub had a tremendous power slider/cutter that broke 2" gloveside and whistled in at 84-89 MPH. That's the center clump on Brooks' movement chart. What a cutter! And he commanded it in the zone. Say whaaaaaa? He threw it 33 times.
And... Read More
Teddy Ballgame, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/15
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Moe Dawg is thinking of all the high-handicappers' swings he's successfully fixed. He sez,
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The discussion on the air about Edgar's tweaking of Trumbo was interesting......but I thought a pretty technical fix to implement in the middle of the season. Trumbo has been terrible as a Mariner, 1 for his last 27 as we speak (my goodness, his OPS is .361 and his OPS+ is 4!!!), but he's likely slumped before and figured it out. If we're attempting tweaks that he's never used before, well then I'm not optimistic we get full benefit. He's an experienced pro with some slugging pedigree, what has... Read More
Jumping the gun, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/15
Posted to blog
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Sure, we're too early with everything. You know you love it. Even if (especially when) Dr. D blows himself to kingdom come :- )
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REPUTATION
PUNDITS: Two pitch Fastball-Slider guy ("slider," Dr. D rolls eyes). Fairly hot fastball, tight late-breaking slider. May actually get too much of the strike zone.
STATS: Agree with this. He has a huge K:BB ratio lately in the minors, like 56:9 last year at AA. Hasn't given up the minor league homers to support the above rep, but that's typical.
MARINERS: Just pushed him up ahead of Farquhar and Wilhelmsen. So he's a good prospect (as... Read More
Seattle 9, Oakland 3. Or was it 5. Don' matter.
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/15
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2 Comments
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Dr. D knows not whether any of these child-sized Warm Fuzzies will grow up to be the large and shaggy kind. But for one night we got a heaping bag full of them, Bad Witch protests begone. The M's blew out the Orcs, Lloyd says he sees signs of sunny hitting weather, and ... Felix goes tomorrow. There's a double dip that Dr. D can live with.
No stats. Just feelings. Stats next time.
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UNCLE FUZZY: The M's had gotten down 3-0 to Chavez real quick, most of it on bad luck. In the first couple innings, J.A. Happ had given up 19 fungo-strength grounders and 17 had gone through. But! ... Read More
Our cleanup hitter will be happy to take a cut at RF
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/15
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5 Comments
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Doctorb Kelly sez, in the Cruz thread,
UZR continues to claim Nelson Cruz is one of the worst defenders in ML baseball, but many of those who watch the games see him as average/acceptable. I was curious and procrastinating, so I went to fangraphs and the web to figure the situation out. The end result? I think it is safe to say UZR is useless and Inside Edge says Nelson Cruz is an average RF. If you care how I came to that conclusion read onward.
+++++++++++++++
First of all, UZR claims Nelson Cruz range has cost the M's 7.3 runs compared to an average RF in 44 games worth of innings in... Read More
It's Origin In the 1960's
Posted by DaddyO on 07/03/15
2 Comments
Just how did Willie come to have such an effect on everyone around him?
Like Tinkerbell I picture him walking around in life with pixie dust trailing his every step. He passes by and sourpusses are instantly transformed into replicas of Tiny Tim waltzing through fields of tulips plucking on their ukeleles singing trills in falsetto voices.
YouTube: Peter Pan, TInkerbell, Pixie Dust and You Can Fly
YouTube: Tiny Tim, Tiptoe Through The Tulips on Laugh-In
I’m sure there are some here who remember the slapstick TV series “Get Smart.” In one two-part episode there was a character called Simon the... Read More
If you got 6 guys, you got 6 guys
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/15
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3 Comments
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What the MARINERS will do, we don't know. As we type this, they've got "TBA" in Elias' / Iwakuma's spot next Tuesday. That's with Mike Montgomery being in James Paxton's spot, and the M's just having said "James is going to be out awhile."
What the Tacoma News Tribune and its president* of the BBWA -- that's not a swipe -- sees as likely can be found here. A 25-year beat writer's take on an org's preferences is a camera angle that we value at SSI. On Monday, before Iwakuma's fine rehab start, Dutton gave the options as ... my words now ...
Powerflush Montgomery or Elias
Put J.A. Happ in... Read More
I gotcher Safeco Field Curse right here, baby
Posted by jemanji on 07/03/15
Posted to blog
2 Comments
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Nelson Cruz sits at +4.25 wins added (WPA), above an average ML player (2.0 WAR in 2015) such as Kurt Suzuki, Brian McCann or David Freese. In that sense, Cruz has been worth +5 WAR in the first half of the season.
In second place, in the AL, sits Jason Kipnis with +2.94 wins added. Personally, I enjoy the fact that the first integer is 4 with Cruz and 2 with the second guy. :- ) But if Cruz were to sit down right now, he would have pretty well justified his salary for this year and next. And still we'd be able to play somebody else in his position, and gain the bases that player... Read More
The world is our oyster now, boyz
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/15
Posted to blog
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5-and-2 Bab-Eh
The taters being Smith's, Seager's, and Lee's, of course.
As Billy Beane put it, "a blog spends two months assessing what its team has, two months clamoring for what it should have, and two months lamenting the Heathcliff Slocumb trade."
Except that in 2016 it has all fallen into place like a Yoo-Hoo shower. SSI spent June yowling for a Lee-Lind lineup while the M's were throwing away 10 games from ahead on the scoreboard. But exactly one week ago, Jerry DiPoto grabbed Nori Aoki by one elbow and signalled forcefully down the I-5 highway. Since then, he's 5-and-2. Let's... Read More
Excuses dwindling along with DaddyO's patience
Posted by jemanji on 07/01/15
15 Comments
DaddyO lists the Dodger starting pitchers under Tommy Lasorda:
As a Dodger fan growing up in the years I got used to a team that had a seemingly endless parade of effective starting pitchers (and usually bullpens too) that other teams simply couldn't match. It's astounding when you really look at it (see below). - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/blogs/merging-into-the-something-special...
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It seemed that the Little Blue Bicycle usually had 4-5 really good SP's --- > AND, on the roster or about to be on the roster, 1-3 more who would win 100+ games in the major leagues. ... Read More