POTD Ramon Flores, OF
M's hoping for a 2nd go-round at a Chris Snelling

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To start with, here's the preferred metaphor for any SEA-NYY trade.  Flores throws Ackley out at the plate.  As y'know, we live to serve.

Assuming that Austin Jackson is gone after the year, then were left with Brad Miller or ???.  We like Miller, but t's a GM's job to avoid ???, and now we've got Ramon Flores as the CF candidate of choice going into 2016.  Of course, Flores has played more LF than CF, but hey.  You could say that about Ketel Marte and Miller his ownself.  Flores is 5' 10", 180 lbs. or so, and they've got the winter leagues.

Flores' calling card is --- > a HIT tool that ranked, at 'press time', #6 in the minors for contact percentage (94%).  He's patient "to a fault," as was John Olerud, with swing % overall near the bottom of pro baseball.

He's got a short stroke and KBIZLT lefty swing that stays inside the baseball for crisp line drives and hot-shot grounders.  His first major league hit is a perfect example.

With this swing, he clocks into the Mainframe as --- > exactly what people thought Kyle Seager was GOING to be, a .270 hitter with plenty of walks but ... as to the power?  "I don' sweat you," sez Corey Kluber.  Or Roberto Hernandez, for that matter.

.....

Yankee$ fans, typically, sell this as "our #4 AAA outfielder and our #5 AAA reliever" for a beard that has hit .300/.400/.500 in Yankee.  Well, most of us are down with the second half of that pap.  Had Dustin Ackley come up with (let's say) the Boston Red Sox, none of us would be surprised if he'd been on an All-Star game or two.

But, as Jeff Sullivan put it, we are at "addition by subtraction" point with Ackley.  Even when he got hot around the first of July, as he always does, management pulled a sour face and made him watch the rest of 'em play anyhow.  As Dr. D puts it, it coulda been that Ackley didn't eggsackly jump on the Edgar bandwagon.  If not, hey, Edgar's got a culture to cultivate around here.

.....

Chris Mitchell of Fangraphs has his own "KATOH" system for projecting minor leaguers, and it had Ramon Flores as the #19 prospect in baseball entering the season.  That's as opposed to the #19 prospect in the Yankee$ own system, and maybe about the #350 prospect overall.  Mitchell is working the edges of the plate with a theory that says the HIT tool -- i.e. contact ability -- correlates with a fast transition to the majors.  Dr. D is working with a theory that says "if you stay inside the ball, you'll get your hits."

He's not fast on the bases -- think 5-10 SB's a year -- so this all leaves him somewhat in the Adam Eaton / Desmond Jennings template.  Shooting at a .260/.320/.380 slash line when things go wrong, or .300/.360/.420 if they break right.  In a neutral park.  That's 1.0 to 3.0 WAR per season, right where Mitchell's projections have him -- at 8.1 WAR over the next 4 years.

Then again, Austin Jackson's recent surge has left him at .255/.300/.375 in Safeco, so you can see why Flores would come into 2016 camp with a job to lose in CF.

Obviously, there's a downside:  #4 outfielder, and in this case there's a good what ... 60%, 70% chance that he'll wind up there.  If you hear that this is his ceiling, though, remember what Kyle Seager's ceiling was supposed to be.  Flores' stroke is fairly similar, and he's had plenty of time at AAA to jell.  Hope the M's have him up sooner than later.

If you're in the mood to feel dreamy, Dr. D doesn't see any reason that Flores couldn't aim at a Brett Gardner career.  Gardner hit a good steady 3-8 homers his first four years.  But he kept the walks way up there, gradually gained power, played several outfield spots and at age 32 is a minor star.

......

Flores has a rep as an "under-the-radar" prospect.  D-o-Vision translation:  he can play in the big leagues, but does nothing to blow your skirt up.  As McClendon put it, "he can do a lot of things."

Here he is doing one thing:  coming straight in a ball, toughest play, with good body control.

Here is is doing another thing:  Getting a great angle on the ball, and impressing the Stats Casters.

Here he is doing three things:  knocking in the 7th, 8th, and 9th runs off a 95 jam pitch for a walk-off in ST.

Here is the MLB.com prospects blurb on him.  This is the same prose they used to write for Chris Snelling.

I like 'im,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

1

Man, that's exactly the type of pitch you would expect him to hit out; one where he can drop the head of the bat on it and get some launch angle.  He is extra picky, only swinging at 31% of the balls outside the zone and 47% (!!!) of the balls inside the zone.He picks a location and doesn't budge much off that location.  If he's got a decent CF glove (in his 8 MLB starts the Yanks kept him in LF) then he has every chance to be a guy who can really help.  Like many of those pesky lefties, he's a reverse split guy, at least in the minors.  His AAA #'s in 511 AB's compare decently to Gardner's, btw Doc:  .268-.360-.429 to .283-.390-.390 for Gardner in 538 AB's.  Gardner had 35 XB'x and Flores 48.  He will hang around the bigs for a while.  If he has the chops to play CF it will be quite a while.

BTW, in those AAA leader lists I noticed that our own Stefen Romero is only swinging at 30.6% of balls outside the strike zone.  He does swing at 71.7% of blls in the zone, and gets contact on 85% of those...so he's not going deep into counts.    I want him up for the rest of the year, too.  

No spot for him, however.

If he can play a decent CF, he's going to be in Seattle all next summer, but we aren't riding him to a playoff spot. He's a nice piece, however.

And btw, for a guy who has only 8 MLB starts, there are quite a few (4) youtube defensive highlights of him.  Well, only the one catch on the soft liner right at him is really nece, but the others show range and an arm.  

And another btw:  James Jones has a career AAA line of .270-.344-.396 with 30 XB's in 396 AB's.  If you figure that Seth Smith is an M's OF in '16 and that Cruz gets the bulk of his PT in RF, then we need a RHB OF to platoon with Smith.  Guti/Kivlehan/Romero (of our own guys) are all in the mix.  Keeping BOTH Jones and Flores up would mean the platoon guy in LF should be able to wear an IF glove...otherwise you lose flexibility. But the M's do that regularly.  Sigh.

I don't know what Pizzano's injury in Jackson is....but, healthy, he hits Flores under tha table.  

2

++His AAA #'s in 511 AB's compare decently to Gardner's, btw Doc:  .268-.360-.429 to .283-.390-.390 for Gardner in 538 AB's.  Gardner had 35 XB'x and Flores 48.++

Good catch Moe.  And, I couldn't show you a study, but I can't shake the idea that it's harder to run large BB totals as time goes on.  Back in the day, Alvin Davis might walk 120 times and strike out 57; Edgar might walk 89 times and fan 35, but that seems more and more rare.  In other words, Flores' discipline might be even more parallel to Gardner's than it seems.

Keep bangin' that Romero drum amigo.  Last thing SSI needs to be is a flava of the month club :- )

3

Seems like a solid ballplayer (the kind we don't seem to have many of). Just based on the few clips you linked, he seems to have a calm confidence. It sounds crazy, but I saw more calmness in those few clips that I've seen in Ackley over 5 years. We could use more calm confidence on this roster.

4

Seems to be a STRONG correlation between "centeredness" and players who are willing to hit the inside half of the ball.  Probably goes to the personality trait of ... what's the opposite of greed?  :- )   Contentedness?  I dunno...

I like the Flores pickup.  And Z deserves a break on one of these guys at some point.

5
RockiesJeff's picture

Jeff, hitting the inside of the ball? In the age of the shift, I would be training anyone holding a bat to learn to use the whole field. Read Tony Gwynn on all of the above. People can't blame Z for drafting Ackley as he was universally seen as the second best after Gwynn's kid, Stasberg. Too bad. But hope somehow there is a CF in the making here....I never really saw Ackley minus rare highlight filmes but seemed like his strenght should have been all fields....which he was not?

6

I love how *you* ask *me* the Q's about hitting Jeff :- ) ... I'll put up with the little joke as long as you're willing to post ... 

True 'nuff that I probably did *watch* Ackley more than you.  For me, he was one of the rare cases that even when he let the ball travel deep enough to go left-center, it still wasn't the inside half of the ball he was hitting.  Does that make any sense?

The two guys I've *ever* seen with the M's, who wanted the outside half of the ball the most, were Griffey and Ackley.

7
RockiesJeff's picture

More than happy to enjoy your input!!! Happy to be jeff by comparison!! Wow. Griffey and Ackley wanting the outside. What a contrast!

That is amazing to me. Ackley's college was completly different wasn't it? Then do you remember when Ackley tore up the AFL and was the MVP? And then he resembled Tiger Woods with a different swing each year....and a lot of ground balls, 4-3. I would have thought he was one to hit the pitch on the inside where it was thrown and go pole to pole. Oh, what we all hoped for.

Baseball and following the M's. Not for the faint of heart!!!!

 

Thank YOU!

 

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