.

Such a maddening game.  

Multiple hits from most of the lineup.  A huge blast from Nelson Cruz.  A plateau leap from Taijuan Walker.  And a walkoff HR in extras from a kid you could make a movie out of.

It's all a giant magnifying glass that focuses the Sun on us hapless little SSI ants.  Scurry away from this winning shtick as fast as your six little legs can carry you.

.

We read about a stats professor who liked to challenge his STATS 101 frosh to a duel.  He'd leave the room, have 40 students flip coins and record 100-sequence flips of HHTHTTHT on slips of paper.  He'd have the other 40 students just write down, "randomly," a 100-sequence set of HTHHTTTTH flips.  Then the prof would come back in to the shuffled pile of papers -- and toss them into "ACTUALLY RANDOM" and "FAKED RANDOM" with glances of 2-3 seconds per paper.  He'd get like 76 of 80 papers correct.

Not everybody here knows how he did it ...

It's because when (unsuspecting) people do this, they write FEW long strings of TTTTTT or HHHHHH down.  Usually they won't write more than 3 of either flip in a row.  But when you actually flip a coin, you'll get long runs.  1 time in 32 sequences you'll get 6 of something in a row; 1 time in 64 you'll get 7 of something in a row.  And here are 99 sequences.

Two applications for the suffering Mariner fan:  first, things happen "for no reason" more often than people think.  For example, the Mariners are still batting .211 with runners in scoring position, though they've been hitting well for nearly a month.

Secondly, since June 5th the Mariners have played a suspiciously "faked" series of short-run W's and L's.  Are you trying to tell Dr. D that this isn't fixed?  Counting backwards from the most recent game:

1 WIN

1 loss

1 WIN ... 2 WINS (different series - first TOR game, last DET game)

1 loss

1 WIN

1 loss ... 2 losses (different series, first DET game, last NYY game)

1 WIN

1 loss ... 2 losses (first NYY game, last LAA game)

1 WIN

1 loss

1 WIN  (splitting the series with LAA all in 5+ run blowouts ... 7-2, 3-7, 5-0, 3-10)

1 loss

1 WIN (a great walkoff 7-6 game in extras)

1 loss (destroyed by 12-5 and it wasn't that close)

1 WIN

1 loss

1 WIN

1 loss (to begin a split an OAK 4-gamer)

1 WIN, 2 WINS (in San Diego)

1 loss, 2 losses (painfully to the Angels, including a walkoff)

1 WIN

1 loss

1 WIN

1 loss, 2 losses (different series - first game vs KC, last game vs HOU)

1 WIN, 2 WINS

1 loss (closing out a split of a 4-gamer vs SF)

1 WIN

1 loss

1 WIN (beginning the series against the champs)

1 loss

1 WIN

1 loss, 2 losses (different series - first game vs HOU, last vs CLE)

1 WIN, 2 WINS

1 loss

1 WIN

....

1 loss, 2 losses, 3 losses, 4 losses, 5 losses, 6 losses, 7 losses (TBR, NYY, CLE)

June 5th closed out the 7-game losing streak, during which the Mariners were far more consistent:  they scored 0, 1, 1, 3, 2, 3, and 3 runs.  In fact that was the heart of a stretch in which the M's failed to get 4+ runs in thirteen (!!) straight games.  But after that, they have never lost 2 games in a row to any team -- and yet have played exactly .500.  This coming against a string of powerful teams.

The moral of the story is, if it seems to you like you're being hit with lefts and rights alternately -- the left jab of hope and the right cross of shattered hope -- that's because you have been.

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TAIJUAN WALKER

Once a month, Dr. D surfs the 'net a bit after a Mariner game before he writes his own shtick.  It's dangerous to learn anything about the Mariners if you aspire to write shtick of this quality, but whatever is different is good. So .... Curiously, he stumbled across a Lookout Landing tonka truck that had presciently given Dr. D's story line on Taijuan, except in more (!) words.  If you haven't read Matthias Ellis' recap of the game, do so with the warm and secure feeling that Dr. D sent you there.  As y'know, he lives to serve.

SSI will add only a few addenda ... wait.  Mojo, do "add" and "addenda" come from the same Latin root? ... scratch that sentence, then.  If you had any normal writing gig, that is.  At SSI, we follow Bill James' war on grammar Nazi-ism.  If it transfers the idea colorfully and cleanly, it's good grammar.  We want to talk good, not speak correctly.

What were we saying?  Oh yeah ... Lookout Landing is far too genteel to point out the following:

....

1.  Walker started the game intending to throw McClendon's glorious "homers are fine; just don't walk anybody" fastball buffet.

1a.  After Josh Donaldson leisurely whacked a 95 jam pitch off the stairwell -- he did it with the air of a man in the Home Run Derby -- Taijuan threw a couple of more fastballs and then said "I ain't staying out here to watch these guys swing from their wallets again today."

1b.  Taijuan had been rocked the previous 3 starts.  By listening to Lloyd.  In fairness, he also had a good run that way.  In even more fairness, if you do the same thing every time, American League hitters will smack the ball into the gloaming with a wooden stick.

.....

2.  Taijuan went from (a) 70% fastballs and 20% spikeballs while (b) Blowers exhorted him to throw even more heaters, to (c) THIS INCREDIBLE PITCH DISTRIBUTION that you find at Brooks.

He threw 24 slow curveballs, as opposed to three or four.  The Jays swung only 6 (!!) times.  They put it in play only twice, for two outs.  That, in case you just joined us, was because the Jays came into the game "tipping their caps" on the curve and sitting dead red.

.....

3.  ML pitchers can throw fastballs for strikes, but risk missing the target if they spin the ball.  That's why Taijuan has been commanded to throw 70%-80% fastballs.  And why, a good solid 2 times per start, you see steam coming out of his ears as he demands a new ball.  Ever wonder why he doesn't just nail the runner as he comes around third?  ... Did you ever notice that usually the ump holds the ball until the runner is past home plate?!  :- ) 

.....

4.  In the long run, we may have paid a dime to get back a dollar.  Perhaps Taijuan will maintain his newfound ability to Schilling the fastball to spots, and now add the ability to Josh Beckett the change speed game.

But then again, you know about left jabs of hope and right crosses of shattered dreams.

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HITTING

Over the last 30 days, the Mariners have the #5 OPS+ among 30 teams.  It's because the Big Three all have OPS's of 900 or so, and Smith is Sething, and Franklin Gutierrez is slugging .524 in 17 games against lefties.

We mentioned, a few weeks ago, that the M's were swinging the bats with intention -- they lay off sucker pitches, fight off tough pitches, swing with authority when they get their pitches, and show talent (read:  CT%) all at once.  This was the way it was supposed to work.

You get a top-10 offense, and your rotation strings some lockdowns, and you wind up with that 9-of-11 run that puts you back in bidness.  Supposing, of course, that the M's don't have a psychological block against winning.

Left jabbily,

Dr D