XFormers
Mariners' scrubs bash Decepticon punks to junk

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Q.  M's go down 3-0 ... and then the BOTTOM of the order erupts.  5 runs in the 3rd inning, and before there was a single out.  Just one of those things, no?

A.  Just one of those things, No.  The lousy half of the lineup played really well for five at-bats in a row.  It wasn't just Dr. D's interpretation, though of course that is unimpeachable.  Blowers (one of the most accurate color analysts we've heard) remarked on the quality "approaches" as they occurred and refrained on it after the fact.

Thusly:

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1 LOGAN MORRISON, if facing a sidearm lefty you unnerstan', had (previously) as much chance of drawing a BB as --- > Russell Wilson does of drawing Paul Allen's appreciation with a WHY NOT ME? salary guarantee speech.  

The sidearm lefty -- Dr. D has gloriously transcended the need to learn the players' names, as Sweet Lou before him had done -- threw 5 out of 6 consecutive tough pitches to LoMo.  As Blowers (and John McGraw) would tell you, you learn a lot from a hitter's "Takes."  Somehow LoMo resisted three separate tempting ideas, each just off the plate in different areas and tossed the bat away.  Slap me silly and call me Sharpay.

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Sharpay Mariners
Run that by me again?

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We read on some saber blog or other that leadoff walks are better for the offense than the defense.  They're especially good when you're down by 3 runs; that part Dr. D just made up on the spot.  :: bows, waves, buried in roses ::

The pernt is, LoMo could have just as easily fouled up the opportunity.  LH-on-LH, he looked great.  This one time, we sez. 

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2 MIKE ZUNINO took an inside pitch right back up the middle.  It sharply slid between second base and the shortstop.  Blowers praised Zunino for executing Edgar's coaching, "hard up the middle."  Very true, the sharp grounder coulda hit a fielder for a DP, but that's a theoretical observation.  More to the point is whether Edgar is making any headway with guys like Mike Zunino.

Still, that was the least impressive AB of the 5-0 blitz by the light armor vehicles.

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3 CHRIS TAYLOR got a 1-1 pitch over the middle, low, and used his KBIZLT swing to lace a screaming meemie to RF.  True, it was a "ground ball."  It's Dr. D's fantasy that every SSI reader would get a chance to watch a "grounder" like that sizzle by his mitt some day.

Blowers also praised the "inside-out" swing highly.  Leave us not forget he wheels out this swing and approach even though coming off the bench, with timing disrupted.  Taylor's gonna have a career, we tells ya.  Kewwllll ballplayer.

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Chris Taylor by Keith Allison, Flickr
Chris Taylor by Keith Allison, Flickr

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So, a leadoff walk and then two singles.  You're down 3-0 but you loaded 'em up, nobody out.

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4 AUSTIN JACKSON quickly went in the hole, 0-2 count.  The center fielder comically walked 10 yards to RF.  Logically, the Tigers' pitcher (you thought we were kidding about Sweet Lou?) then threw Jackson an inside cutter that he was forced to pull.  Jackson gave it a medium-strength pop, and it popped just over the LF wall.  Grand slam.

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5 FRANKLIN GUTIERREZ let an outside pitch travel and "hit it where it was pitched," as Ty Cobb would tell you.  He hit the ball hard and far, over the fence.  In right center.  Dr. D read somewhere that when a RH hitter drives the ball hard to right center, he's tough.  He thinks he read it on the scoreboard in 2001, when Bret Boone hit 37 homers here.

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It's an odd coincidence that we were just about to write a separate article, Props and Slops, on the theme of --- > which Mariners are loose and confident at the plate, and which are up there grinding their bat handles and back molars into sawdust.  Here is the short version of that article:

  • Relaxed M's, thinking in the box:  Cano, Cruz, Seager, Smith
  • Tight M's, scared spitless in the box:  Other Mariners

Dr. D was just! about! to write! this! when suddenly, WHAM all the other Mariners looked like Seth Smith at the plate.

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Are there any dots here to connect? 

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Let's say that Dr. D was a high-school basketball coach.  Let's say that his really talented basketball team was 7-and-10, and committing 32 turnovers per game, and making 62% from the foul line.  Let's say that all his players were really tight, and playing really lousy.

Let's say that Dr. D went away for two games.

Let's say that suddenly --- > his team, coached by the assistant, won two 30-point blowouts with 7 turnovers per game and shot 88% from the foul line.

Let's say that the two big stars played the same whether Dr. D was there or not -- they're secure in their jobs -- but everybody else finally relaxed into their best games.  Would this please Dr. D the coach?  Well, he'd have one question.  Are there any mirrors around.  

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Could be, instead, that Edgar's gaining traction.  Could be, instead, that the warm weather helps the offense.  But then, that's why we started the article the way we did.  In any case, there's a coupla games where the collateral damage made it to the kill zone.

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-- MARK LOWE -- 

The M's paid saberdweebs had fun with a junk stat when Lowe came in.  Third Mariner Ever to run a 0+ ERA at this point in the season (Hasegawa, JJ Putz).  Now, you know and I know that the difference between a 0.75 ERA and a 1.25 ERA is purely luck.  Fine, whatevah, they're just noodlin'.  But what had me chuckling was that Lowe just got here ... didn't he? ... and Hasegawa threw like 50 innings by this point.  The screen said "In July" and "Minimum 10 Appearances" or somesuch.  HEH!

But.  Check it out and ... Lowe does have 26 IP in.  And after the screen shot, Lowe promptly struck out every batter he faced, causing Dr. D's chuckle to snerf so fast that he blew a sinus.  Anyway:  Lowe is throwing 44.0% sliders (!) and maintaining a run value of +3.83 team runs gained (!!) per 100 sliders thrown.  That's kind of like if Marshawn Lynch ran 401 times next year ... and averaged 6.1 yards per carry.

We get it:  his slider has been the sourge of the American League.  The punch line:  the game before, their graphic pointed out that Lowe is the QUICKEST Mariner, at 94.7 MPH average.  He is now throwing as hard as he did when he first came up with the M's, and was a young relief star.

The M's get a guy like that as their #4 reliever, and that means what to you?  It means your team holds 1-run leads after 6 innings.

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-- M's DEFICIT HITTING --

Tacoma Rain has a question.  First, I have a question:  TR, you know you can link to your stuff here, right?  With impunity.  Anyway, the Q:

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I usually am not the guy who gets deep into these numbers, especially offensive numbers... so I need help.

Against left handed pitchers, the Mariners who are performing so far this year are...

Guti 956 OPS, Cruz 1321 OPS, Seth 1071 OPS, Taylor 896 OPS, Seager 812 OPS, Jackson 805 OPS, and even Ruggiano 812 OPS.... I think with these numbers we should be able to score some runs. 

Against right handed pitchers, the Mariners who are performing so far this year are...

Cruz 830 OPS, Miller 821 OPS, Morrison 788 OPS, Seth 767 OPS, Seager 719 OPS and Cano 700 OPS... again while not as good of numbers, these are more than acceptable and should NOT be the  one of the 3 worst offenses in MLB.

Is this gap between good numbers and lack of runs because of Lloyd, other coaching, pre game scouting reports, Jack or we fans who just don't know any better?

I just do not understand. Can someone please help me understand.

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/comment/108786#comment-108786

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We feel your pain, brah.  It's the same thing as asking, "Could somebody please tell me how to synthesize life."  They've got a whale of a lot of minds on it, and the same amount of computing power, and they're applying a lot of leverage to the problem.  So far without the results they want.  If you're the guy to figure it out don't blab it on a chat board.  Sell it! ;- )

The M's have a lot of data, a lot of computing power, a lot of sharp minds on the problem.  YES the Mariners have lots of hitting talent.  Yes they are getting a lot of good AB's.  No it is not translating into runs.  Their batting with RISP is .204, theoretically impossible. Their BABIP is very low and their hard-hit balls are high, theoretically a contradicition.  Their scrub players are trying too hard, theoretically a problem of poor sports pschology.  Nobody knows why.  You don't, I don't, and very obviously nobody paid by the Mariners knows why.

Life is complicated,

Dr D

Blog: 

Comments

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1. Jackson hit a mistake pitch (0-2 and it got plate) from a lefty for a big fly.  He does that occassionally.  Well, he had done it 17 times prior in his career.  He was probably happy to see his Detroit buddies and responded like he had seen them all do so many times.  No Soup for Edgar on that one.

2. Guti has always hit LHP's. How does a career .291-.346-.480 sound.  His only role is now to hit lefties.  He did.  No Soup for Edgar on this one.

3. Zunino's single?  Maybe a bit of soup for Edgar, but just a sip.  That might have been a DP ball, as Doc rends us, and Zunino wasn't too sharp in his other AB's.  See below, however.  

4. No Soup for Edgar on Taylor's single.  The kid was just a smidgeon from being a .290-.350 hitting SS last year, with no Edgar in sight.  He can play...if we would quit jacking him up and down to Tacoma.  Next year it will be very interesting to see if we do this platoon job at SS or if we give the CF/LF job to Miller and go with Taylor.  Of course, that will be Willie B's (or whoever the new manager is) decision.  

5.  LoMo eeked out a nice walk.  Good for him, because he's jumped his vL OBP up to .227!  Good thing he's slugging .024 against lefties!  Really.  I kid you not!!  Over his career, Jack Wilson slugged .096 vs. RHP.  Freddy Patek (there's a name, Doc) was 5'5 and weighed a buck forty eight; he slugged .077 vR, over his career.  At 5'4 140, Wee Willie Keeler was even more diminutive.  He slugged .074 over his career.  OK, I poke fun at LoMo's enfeebled vL ability this year.  But I do so to point out that he's not very good vL (slugging .119 over his career...and not getting on base very well) and we have a really nice partner for him in Tacoma.  It will take some stretching to get Montero here but in the end, we've devalued him so badly that he is stuck in Tacomatory for us, seemingly forever.  We should stick the catcher's gear on him again (he wasn't THAT bad) and give him a role as a platoon 1B and BU C.   The guy can hit lefties!  Billy Beane (What a guy...as Madeline Kahn would say) would turn him into Stephen Vogt.  OK we won't....but a guy who kills lefties like he does should be on a MLB roster.  Given the split advantage, he's basically the same hitter Boog Powell was, given the split advantage.  Powell, vR, over his career was .275-.374-.485.  OK, that was agasint RHP, which you see 70% of the time.  But I'm pretty sure that Earl Weaver would have found some way to use Montero. Sigh....  

6.  Trumbo had a couple of knocks.  He's gone 3-8 recently.  Soup for Edgar.  I don't know if Edgar has fixed him, I rather doubt it in fact. The big guy is a seasoned pro who has hacked his way out of slumps before.  Likely so here.   But Trumbo has a pulse recently.  Just maybe Doctor Edgar put the paddles to him and got the old ticker going again.

7. Cano's homer?  No Soup for Edgar there.  He's Robbie Cano who has simply remembered how to be Robbie Cano.  If Edgar helped him do that.., saying "Relax and square it up.  You're Robbie Bleepin' Cano, after all!"....then he gets a sip of the chowder.

8.  Kudo's to Taijuan.  The kid gave up some shots, but didn't knuckle under and hung in there.  In many ways, that was an impressive effort.  He stayed with his hod rod rhythm and didn't surrender.  Zunino is a top-flight MLB reciever/framer/pitch caller/head doctor.  Enjoy him guys...and don't worry about his bat so much.  

Go team.....We've won 5 of 8 guys.  .625 for the rest of the way gets us in the playoffs!  Of course, we had lost 5 of the previous 7. A win today....then 3 of 4 from the Angels breaths a bunch of Wild Card life into this team.  

Make it so...... 

Postscript addenda:  Montero went 3-4 last night....with 2 triples.  He has 5 on the year now. That's as many as James Jones!!   Unless they are playing AAA ball without fences now and the ball just rolls until it stops, then Montero has done some speed (sort of) work.  He's at .328-.366-.519 for the year, against all pitching.  He's OPS'ing 1.083 vs. lefties, with a 10/15 BB/K rate.  

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Suppose you've been working with me and three of my 24-handicap friends.  We step out.  First tee shot, 260 down the middle.  My wife grumbles, "He's done that before"  Next three students in a row, Dead Solid Perfect.  kibtizers say "they've done that before."

Granted.  Now where do we go from there?  :- )  Scores at the 19th hole, I guess?  Sure.  But as teacher, you likey the first hole?  Ya, becuase you're watching the mechanics more than where the ball stops rollin'.

Good counterpoint there amigo.

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There exists somewhere within the mish-mash of synapses in my cerebral pathways a strong connection between music/songs stored deep in some remote corner and my immediate cognitive intake. (I hear this is true of people in general, so I guess this means I'm just people.)

So when I saw the picture you chose for this article, Doc, those synapses just started sputterin' and firin' the way they do from time to time, following their mysterious meanderings until they retreived from my medial pre-frontal cortex the following Perry Como song to which my Dad occasionally used to refer:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gifkCgoJ7SY

Thanks for the trigger. And the article too.

When I watch the games the M's mostly accentuate the negative, and for some strange reason when I don't it's the positive they treat. Last night the M's were quickly down 3-0 after getting pummeled the night before, so when my wife called me into another room to figure out what was going on with our new portable air conditioner, I didn't hesitate to skedaddle away from the TV. Upon reentering the room a few moments later I saw a score of Mariners 4, Tigers 3 and a beaming Austin Jackson taking a seat in the dugout. I rewound the live broadcast and watched what you describe in your article. 

I have no idea whether this portends better for the M's or nothing at all. But it WAS positively accentuating!

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