This is more a solicitation of opinions than an article.
When all is said and done and the season is over, which way do you think the Seattle Mariners will have gone from here?
Will they continue as a sub-.500 underachiever, presumably leading to the firing of Jack Zduriencik and Lloyd McClendon, probably before season's end ?
Or will they improve somewhat, perhaps get to .500 or a little above but make no substantial move into the playoff picture?
Or will they, realize their potential, reel off some serious winning runs, and vault into the playoff picture?
Whatever scenario you envision, it would be fun to have you flesh things out a bit. What will be their trade deadline behavior? Their September mode? Etc.
I am not expecting playoffs, but I think there will be games of importance in September.
Specifically - awful rest of July... 6-11, then something kicks in with 18-10 August, 15-12 September and 3-0 October...
for a final record of 83-79, 2 games out of the playoffs.
I would hope they catch fire, or lightning in a bottle and at least compete for a WC. Short of that, this team is about as predictable as Sybil and her multiple personalities. One day they pitch well but can't hit a ball into the ocean. Another, they hit like no tomorrow but can't hold a lead. Then, like today, they get great SP and hit and play enough defense to win 5-0. Short of the playoffs without competing for a WC, Z should be dismissed. Compete for the playoffs, but come up short, he probably keeps his job. Their overall record, above or below .500 probably dictates his fate. As far as trades, promotions, deletions go, offense remains a priority given the woeful production, especially clutch (pardon me) situations. I would not be surprised to see a promotion or two shortly from Tacoma or a trade. Although the team lacks many valuable trade assets, excluding the obvious untouchables. They seem to be not far from success and then proceed to lose 8 out of 10. Extremely irritating and frustrating season thus far. Lloyd appears safe although he's somewhat attached to Z, unless he loses the clubhouse. Not likely, his players like him and he's mostly adequate with roster management. But he needs baserunners and guys that can hit. Something Z seems unable to deliver.
If Z was told during the winter that he was on a short leash, then he could be in trouble. But I don't remember too many people here or elsewhere complaining abou the team he put together during spring training. He may have run out of fairy dust in stocking his bullpen...but hard to predict so many arms falling short. What if he hadn't picked up Lowe?
As for Mac, in my mind he has done absolutely nothing to deserve blame. He's still the best manager since Lou by a country mile.
The quick answer is the players have to play better. Maybe they're just not capable--which you could lay at Jack's feet in terms of the young hitters. But again, no one seemed outraged when we made our first round picks.
It's just baffling. Seems like the talent level would be producing better. But to blame the manager for that, in this case, seems like a simplistic conclusion.
I've defended Loyd quite a bit but I'm over him now. It's the lack of fundamentals and real basic execution that dooms him as far as I'm concerned. I don't blame Lloyd for Ackley or Cano or Trumbo not hitting. I do blame Lloyd for the team not coming out of ST ready to compete two years in a row. I do blame him for the constantly stupid base running gaffs and the somewhat frequent laziness on defense. I just can't support him any longer.
Because, Jack put together a great team during the off season and everyone agreed....and so they are not playing well. That is not his fault and not Lloyd's fault. Jack got Lowe, Cruz, Montgomery, Guttierez, brought Montero back ....
This is not their fault...so who do you bring in? Name a GM who would be better. Name a better manager.
I can think of some that I like. If they could pry Forst away from Beane, he would be my choice. It might take a vault of $$$ to get him out of A's GM-in-waiting status but Beane doesn't seem like he's going to give up the reigns anytime soon so maybe. Girsch from the Cardinals will be somewhere next season and his strength is a prime weakness for the M's: player development. Coppolella with the Braves is going to be a GM but I'm not sure they go with another scout/development guy again. I would be interested to get SABRMatt's impression of Oppenheimer from the Yankees organization. He's certainly paid his duesBand seems well thought of.
As far as a manager, I'm a Wally Backman fan. Like a young Buck Showalter, I imagine his act would start to grate on an MLB clubhouse after 3-4 years but the team needs an aggressive clubhouse leader and that's just not going to come from this roster of players. Wally is a little nuts but he would immediately bring the kind of fire to the M's that we haven't seen in a long time. He's also reputed to be an outstanding tactical manager, which I would appreciate.
So Girsch/Backman. That's my ticket.
Get the win today and we are 5.5 games behind LAA and they are the 2nd WC team at this point. Do that and you can stay interested for 10-12 after the break. Go 9-2, or something like that, and then your're likely 3 games out of the WC. At that point you hold all your player cards and hope all the planets lineup as Ackley, Trumbo, Cano and Cruz all light up.
But short of all that happening (a smoking hot next dozen games) then I'm selling Happ and Jackson for whatever the mrket allows. Will consider same on Morrison. It is possible that a hot-streaking Ackley may bring more than Jackson from a contender, too.
The next stretch determines if I'm in or out on the rest of the season.
In case you have not looked... 3 at Yankees, 4 at Tigers, 3 home vs Toronto, 3 home vs Arizona, 4 at Twins...
If Mariners win 7 of those games, they will have done well.
I think the team will play well enough in the second half to save the jobs of Mac and Jack. That means enough fans in their seats at the Safe and TV revenue to keep the books looing good. I'm with T. Rain on a .500+ record and falling short of the playoffs. Frankly, I think Jack has done well enough on the roster, with the exception of back-up C, and Mac, pretty bad on getting the most from his players. I think there will be some deals made in the second half. Jackson will be a FA in the off-season, so if he's not in the team's future plans, they could get something for him. Likewise, Ackley, as how many OFers do we need? Likewise, what of LoMo, Montero, and Trumbo at 1B/DH. One of them could be moved, with something helpful in return, but also with little downside with what remains on the roster.
I'm about in line with Tacoma Rain: a hot stretch at some point that pushes the M's to or just above .500, but they aren't good enough to go further and press for a wild card or the division.
I looked at this a couple of weeks ago and noticed that July was going to be a tough month. On the other hand, August will be by far a schedule more conducive to a streak of winning baseball. Of course, by then it is likely to be too late, and given the team's play thus far probably too little also.
Every time the M's are faced with a statement series the only "statement" they make is a question:"If not now, when?"