July 2014
AJ fans, speak up :- )
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/14
Posted to blog
20 Comments
csiems sez,
I'm having a hard time believing the reserved reactions to this deadline from the local community.
Jackson is a dynamic player that a team can win (and has won) its next pennant with. When the trade was going down, national pundits were screaming that Walker HAD to be included!
I think we will look back on this and say it was Trader Jack at his best. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/trade-deadline-con#comment-147059
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This point has traction. Hope that CS and others follow up in Jackson's defense.
Dr. D wasn't following the real-time deadline news; that... Read More
M's trade for Alexi Ogando comp
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/14
Posted to blog
10 Comments
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Q. How long does it usually take for a surging rookie pitcher to get the 8th inning?
A. Ask Justin Leone. (Or Dom. Or Don, Cor-. Thx SeattleNative. Shows you the impression Jeff Sullivan makes!)
Leone isn't being "punished" or anything like that; it is typical for a manager to take one (1) year to establish confidence in a new young pitcher. Earl Weaver's Fifth Law: the place for a rookie pitcher is in long relief.
Maurer has apparently shoved his way through MLB's best bullpen to grab the setup job, inside 10 appearances.
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Q. Does Lloyd get cpoints for insight AGAIN?
A. He's... Read More
Dr. D goes even more schitzo than usual
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/14
Posted to blog
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Golfclap 1: the strategy was surgically precise.
You've got the #1 pitching staff and the #15 batting order. You import a legitimate leadoff hitter, a fairly legit cleanup hitter, and a platoon bat. In theory, that team can win the World Series. It just has to catch fire.
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Golfclap 2: the strategy was coherent.
About fourth on the bullet list of problems: taking on quality LHP's, and taking on ANY kind of pitcher's pitches.
Not only can Jackson and Kendrys do that, but Denorfia is a very positive move towards that as well. These players snap into positions of need. They are org... Read More
Squidward and Spongebob, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/31/14
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28 Comments
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Q. Was it basically a GOOD July in trading, or was it a BAD one?
A. Objectively speaking, it was a fairly good one. But to hear Jack Zduriencik talk afterward, it was a huge Fail.
In this Times vid-terview, he is defensive ... um, no, actually testy ... um, no, let's call that defiant. The words could be exactly the same if Zduriencik had stood pat.
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Q. Why would he add a #1 hitter, a #4 hitter, a #7 hitter and then be so defensive about it?
A. In my opinion, this article at Fangraphs provides you the Insta-Answer. "These are EXACTLY the kinds of trades a team should be making when... Read More
Don't know. But Roger Ebert would give us 1-thumb up!
Posted by moethedog on 07/31/14
5 Comments
OK: I'm sure somone will do a more complete review of this. But I'll jump in. At first blush:
1. We could have had Price for Franklin and Walker/Paxton. You can deduce that, I think. We held on to our young arms. Could we have got Price for Franklin and Elias? Ah....Don't know. Likely not. Undoubtedly, the Rays valued Smyly more than Elias.
2. Short term winners are the Tigers, clearly. Short term being '14-'15. Son of a gun if they don't have a pretty wonderful staff right now. Wooooo-eeeee! After that the winner may well be the Rays. They are likely the long term winner... Read More
We are getting some positive readings ...
Posted by Spectator on 07/30/14
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1 Comments
For July, Ackley is busting out on singles, but he is also busting out on doubles.
Ackley has, in fact, gotten more aggressive at the plate.
Ackely has, in fact, hit more line drives in July (23.4%) than in the prior months (17.1%).
Ackley still needs to figure out how to make his new, more aggressive approach work with his old walk rate.
Full article here.
Home page here.
"Annual perofmance review" time
Posted by Spectator on 07/30/14
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1 Comments
I want to clarify that when I criticize Jack Zduriencik as a strategic negotiator, I am not indicating that I view him as incompetent or not qualified for his job.
I believe that he is a scout at heart, and that is his area of expertise. Indeed, I believe that only Felix, Michael Saunders, Brandon Maurer and Nate Tenbrink are holdovers from the Bavasi era. Maybe a couple more. But every other player in the organization was brought in under Z.
But trades involve more than just evaluating the talent involved. There are negotiations. A “deal” must be made.
Full article here.
Home page... Read More
Maybe the low quality camouflages the high quality?
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/14
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1 Comments
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I said, in the Level 101 shtick, that the last three big-money signings from Cuba had no minors experience, yet slugged .500+ from the word Go.
Fortunately at SSI, the community will help you triangulate the truth real quick. :- )
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LR (and Bat571) sez,
Puig did have about half a year seasoning in the minors, though he probably didn't need it, which is the point you're making anyway. Just pointing that out. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/rusney-castillo-level-101-scan#s...
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LR (rather too kindly) excuses my error as not very important. In Gaston and Alphonse... Read More
Edgar's Cantina, beware
Posted by jemanji on 07/29/14
Posted to blog
6 Comments
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Q. Could Rusney Castillo help the Mariners this year?
A. He could, yes. It's feasible that he could.
The last three Cubans to sign big-money deals all slugged .500 in the major leagues as rookies, zero (0) minor league play required.
Cespedes was #10 in the MVP voting as a rookie, 0 minors AB's
Puig has a career OPS+ of 160 (!!), no minors AB's whaaaaatsoever
Jose Abreu is slugging .619 (!) right now. No minor league prep, of course.
The Japanese and Cuban leagues are isolated, like the Negro League was, and the quality goes up and down. Used to be, there were hitters like Ichiro and... Read More
The problem isn't IQ … for Jase, either
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/14
Posted to blog
20 Comments
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Q. Is Ackley fixed?
A. "No" actually is Spanish for No, besides the fact that Jase is tongue in cheek. The Robertsons play like they're dumb. They're in on the joke, which is more than Dr. D can say for himself.
.........
Ackley doesn't look fixed to me, not permanently. He may be permanently improved. That's a much different thing.
We've talked about it any number of times. To Dr. D, the key is NOT in this or that component stat. It is in the concept of "greed" .... in mechanical terms, this manifests itself by Ackley hurling his weight down the 1B line in an effort to get a cheap... Read More
How about "Playing for a Pennant-Race Season" ?
Posted by jemanji on 07/28/14
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39 Comments
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This idea comes up constantly, probably because one notable Fangraphs dude flatly stated that --- > the M's are playing only for "a 1-game playoff, on the road, against a better squad." Clearly implying that it is unintelligent to set such a goal.
.......
There was a very similar argument on Field Gulls last week, "demonstrating" that a 14-team NFL playoff was "incorrect." We kid you not, the words "Correct" and "Incorrect" were used many, many times. The logic was:
P1: With 12 teams, the best team wins the Super Bowl X percent of the time
P2: With 14 or 10 teams, the best team wins... Read More
So why are they Free Fallin'
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/14
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12 Comments
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Q. I'm not a geek; I just like baseball. What is "Pythag"?
A. Bill James noticed, in like 1984, that if you ratio a team's runs scored to runs allowed, you can come up with an "expected winning percentage." To James, the algebra of it sort of looked like geometry's Pythagorean Theorem.
Then everybody else tried to claim rights to the formula by making little tweaks to it. In this section, (whoever wrote) the Wikipedia (entry) argues ferociously that the original formula Just. Wasn't. Good. Enough. For Real. Scientists, so you should get the current "expected" standings from them.
I can... Read More
of Critical Mass and Tipping Points
Posted by jemanji on 07/27/14
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2 Comments
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Q. What IS really going on?
A. Kendrys Morales is using the Dustin Ackley / Ichiro / Henry Aaron method, "gliding" his weight and refusing to hit against a firm front side.
Anybody who changes his name from "Kendry" to "Kendrys" has the right to go his own way.
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Q. Rephrase. Why wouldn't the M's be 61-44 right now.
A. One of two things is clear:
(1) The Mariners are about to start winning tons of games
(2) They're doing what they did in 2011
No other conclusion is possible.
Well, for teams that finish like -12 games under expectation, you could theorize that the bad luck just... Read More
When the *appearance* of sanity is the only home we have left
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/14
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6 Comments
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Basis article here. Nice job by Ms. Hagy. :- )
Warning: Political / Philosophical content ensues. If the lining of your soul will be burnt by seeing life metaphors to baseball, on a baseball site, weenie your way over to the "MOVEON(.org)" button. Your friend, Jeff
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Okay. How do the Mariners get more interesting or, rightly presuming that is out of the question, how can our website maintain some minor "plausible deniability" as to whether we've long since become insufferably boring?
New formats, of course.
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Go Exploring.
How twue, sez Jar Jar. My daughter spent two days... Read More
Some shows always finish with a smile… and what's wrooonnggg with thaaaaat
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/14
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2 Comments
Continuing to follow Ms. Hagy's advice on how to find interest in life....
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Embrace Your Innate Weirdness.
Hm. Dr. D will have to consider attempting this some day.
Could the Ms' "Weirdness" add to the interest and liveliness of its club? Well, it's got SABRMatt daily swearing an oath to Odin that he will never watch another inning... like we sez, others at SSI are merely trying to keep the FACADE of sanity.
Nah, c'mon Dr. D. -Okay- They're holding MY interest as to whether they will implode EXACTLY as the Felix-Erik-Pineda-Fister-Vargas team did in 2011:
"The best rotation in... Read More
Assuming you have chosen "Life"
Posted by jemanji on 07/25/14
Posted to blog
Once again, Ms. Hagy's seed article lieth here ... 5 more ways to BE INTERESTING! ...
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Minimize the Swagger
"Egos get in the way of ideas. If your arrogance is more obvious than your expertise, then you're someone other people avoid." And which blog among us cannot relate to that...
Funny thing: Robinson Cano and Kyle Seager are non-greedy, non-entitled Warriors. At all times they are ready for a fight, a FAIR fight.
So is Kendrys Morales. So, that's good. (So are Mike Zunino and James Jones, but ...)
.........
This has its Steering Committee application, also. Ms. Hagy provided the... Read More
It's a daily rewind, but also a bunch of trade commentary
Posted by Spectator on 07/25/14
Posted to blog
And you gotta love the picture.
I think they will still do a trade for an outfielder, with Nick Franklin at the center. It just seems impossible not to.
So I go over some of the scenarios.
Plus the Daily Prospect-palooza, with Sanchez and Diaz on the mound, and balls flying out of Rancho Cucamonga.
And the song!
Full article here.
Home page here.
That is soooooome kinda shekel I saved here, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/24/14
Posted to blog
33 Comments
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Q. Why would anybody read an SSI "article" when --- > the shout box (SBox 5) is available?
A. They don't. We've been approached about using article area (below the fold) for encoded messages. The Shout Box is Dr. D's first stop in the mornin'. B'lee DAT.
I defy you to show me the baseball area that offers the SBox' blend of wit, wisdom, diverse personalities, "hard" news delivered on the nanosecond, and ... its absence of Dr. D. Eh? Thought not.
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Q. What's the CIA encoded message on this trade? Start with the depressing.
A. It's depressing, to me, to focus 80% on what you... Read More
The Mariners wave their wand and get something done
Posted by mojician on 07/24/14
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2 Comments
A wise and ancient Judo sensei once stated: "Don't ever wait for the perfectly balanced feeling, or the perfect opening. Against tougher judo players, that moment will never come. Begin to execute your throw as soon as you get your favorite grip, because it won't last long."
No, Yamashita did not say that, some other guy did. But if someone had ever beaten Yamashita, it would've been from following advice like that. Get him before he annihilates you in four ways at the same time. Its already too late for the guy in the picture.
If you've been following the trade rumors, there have been... Read More
And one pitch too many
Posted by moethedog on 07/24/14
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5 Comments
Let's start off with this: T. Walker is a rusty 21-year old, if such a thing is possible. After his start yesterday he's thrown 65 innings this year, only 15 in the bigs. So he was probably a rusty nervous 21-yr old, too.
He's still only thrown 30 innings, total, in the majors. That's it. I'll give him the nervous thing.
But in those 30 innings he's only allowed 20 hits. This was his 6th MLB game. Just for comparison, in Nolan Ryan's 5th MLB game it took him 135 pitches to go 7 innings. He only gave up 3 hits but walked 7. He was also 21 years old.
I'm not trying to directly... Read More
Like the movies do, Dr. D sometimes gets his Bad & Ugly confused
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/14
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5 Comments
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Q. What was the ugliest thing about his performance Wednesday?
A. The opposing starter? ... actually Bartolo Colon is in the quadrant of MLB pitchers who most resemble Dr. D himself, so he's allowed. If Dr. D looked more like Clint Eastwood than Eli Wallach, he'd have no right. But trust him, he can talk bad baseball faces.
By the way, how does a guy named "Eli Wallach" play a notorious Mexican bandit? And how come Colon slaughters us with 88 MPH fastballs every time? Sometimes the casting is so bad, it's good.
Okay, we're 50 words in and hopelessly off track. You thought we were... Read More
Pride goeth before the fall, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/23/14
Posted to blog
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Q. Are the Mariners as bad at hitting fatballs as we think, and as Colon underlined?
A. This has been a seasonlong complaint at SSI, including but certainly not limited to Smoak and Ackley. Here's a first-pitch 91 MPH fastball out-and-over, center cut. Mariner batsman locks up like Jim Carrey "freezing" in The Mask.
"Come on, you don't have to swing a sock full of nickels in a friendly rassle. How does anybody ever hit that pitch?"
.........
Fangraphs splits out the pitch value info, and the data (once again) confirms SSI's shtick. As y'know, we live to serve. The Mariners are #14... Read More
Additional explanation of how I picked Nick, including spreadsheets!
Posted by Spectator on 07/23/14
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2 Comments
Commenter Cary asked for some more explanation as to how we picked Nick Franklin as our Hitter of the Year So Far, so we gave him some.
Probably more than he bargained for.
And spreadsheets, even!
Full article here.
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And Tuesday's rewind:
Breaking down e-RAM
Paxton gets a start
Pitcher of the Year So Far Tyler Olson not jinxed
Full article here.
Home page here.
A tale of suffering and redemption
Posted by mojician on 07/22/14
12 Comments
Casey McGehee was a middle infield benchie journeyman from 2008 until 2012. In 2012, McGehee washed out of the Pirates and the Yankees with putrid numbers and results. Then he disappeared. Those who remembered McGehee (There weren't many) assumed that he had died or retired into the simple life of a hermit.
McGehee was forgotten, but his baseball life was not gone. In 2013, he lived, beyond league, beyond time, beyond the Pacific Ocean in Sendai, Japan. McGehee awoke in Sendai to a strange new world of baseball. He had a vision: In his own words to the Japan Times:
“I changed my... Read More
How can you have any doubt?
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/14
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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Would Dr. D trade Nick Franklin "in the division"? The A's seem :- ) to realize something nobody else does:
You can't teach EYE. You acquire EYE.
Also, they need a middle infielder now.
Also, 2-3 WAR players at $450K are solid gold.
Also, 4-5 WAR players at club-controls are fairly nice.
So Nick "is a top target" for the A's. Um, yeah. Why wouldn't he be? He's the quintessential Oakland A, right down to the beat-writer-irritating arrogance.
"In the division," you say? Get the best player in the deal. End of story.
Oakland has nobody like that they'll trade? Hokay. There's your... Read More
428 feet, but an even prettier "launch angle"
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/14
Posted to blog
12 Comments
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Rick sez,
Something about Zunino: his numbers are less than impressive, but you know what? Those are very, as Doc would say, "hard rbi's". Mike doesn't pad his numbers in meaningless games. It seems every home run, every RBI, has an important role in a victory. I think WAR understates his real value, and not just behind the plate.
...
1. I think 90% of even the most trenchant saber dogmatists would allow that WAR is tricky for catchers -- catchers handle pitching staffs; it wasn't long ago that "framing" was unmeasured; it is at least very plausible (and actually is taken as a "given" by... Read More
Could be on a lot of #1 roto teams next year
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/14
Posted to blog
21 Comments
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Didn't Know Where Else To Put This, So Just Figured I'd Put It Here, dept.
... an old Bill James subject header. Far be it from Dr. D to fail to annotate his plagiarism.
Rodney was questioned by the peanut gallery, though not by people in uniform, for his arrow into the Angels' dugout. Dr. D's angle?
1. We're sure that his supervisors have asked him to please refrain, next time.
1a. We're equally sure that they did it while suppressing a smile.
2. If the Mariners have decided they wish to look other teams in the eye, it's all right by me.
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Matt Kemp
Kain't keep up with our own Shout... Read More
Pat Gillick, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/22/14
Posted to blog
18 Comments
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I/O: The Mariners let leak that Montero "did himself no favors" with his attitude and actions during his last 5-game visit to Seattle.
I/O: Presumably the "actions" in reference were not Montero's .500 SLG and 120 OPS+ during this trip, which caused Corey Hart and others acute embarrassment.
I/O: Montero's hitting lately, in the PCL, is beyond insane. Here's the 1334 OPS+ the last two weeks.
I/O: Sometimes the Mariners have a little trouble scoring runs.
I/O: Some amigos point out this is occurring in the Rocky Mountains. (Does this mean we adjust it, or just ignore it?)
I/O: Mojo... Read More
Hitter of the Year So Far (a name you know) & Pitcher of the Year So Far (a name you don't)
Posted by Spectator on 07/21/14
Posted to blog
7 Comments
Our mid-season hitter of the year ...
Nick Franklin
Enjoy it while you can.
Full article here.
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Mid-season pitcher of the year ...
The man with the $10,000 bonus?
Find out here.
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Plus the usual daily updates:
Friday: Taijuan, Taylor, A-Jax
Saturday: Sucre's pistol, Victor's vector
Home page here.
Since when did the M's become, not wussies?
Posted by jemanji on 07/19/14
Posted to blog
11 Comments
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Tough thing in soccer: the ball chips into open territory. Two fast players have similar angles on it. A "50-50" ball. You have five basic possible outcomes:
You tackle, miss, he nips by you and you've allowed a horrible fast break against your team
You or he tackles, stops the attack, and what happens next is anybody's guess (another 50-50 ball maybe)
You back up, play the angle, and concede possession
He backs up, plays the angle, and concedes you possession
He tackles, misses, you nip by him and there's your exciting counter on
Notice that the intelligent thing to do, short-term,... Read More
Hopefully spreadsheets are worth a thousand words (DJ, cont.)
Posted by Gordon Gross on 07/18/14
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5 Comments
The conversations with lr (and others) about DJ Peterson have been both intriguing and enlightening. I thought it time to talk about corner power and expectations a little more in depth, however - how do we know whether we should be enthusiastic or wary of DJ if we don't know whether his slash line/ wOBA is actually what we want to see from a corner slugger?
For a wider angle on this, here's the last thirty years worth of 1B performances at the plate in a handy spreadsheet:
And for a team-centric snapshot, here's the performance of first basemen for the Mariners through the years... Read More
Various minor league updates of note
Posted by Spectator on 07/18/14
Posted to blog
Pleased to meet you, Zack Littell!
ERA over 5? So what! The 18-year-old has monster numbers underneath.
Full article here.
Bienvenidos, Rafael Fernandez!
Yet another shortstop?
Sometimes the guys who are absolutely averse to strikeouts use their plate skills to find some power later on.
Full article here.
Gold Star for Matt Brazis
This is the guy who struck out 19 of his first 28 pro hitters with no walks.
It only looked like he got lost in High Desert last year.
He's back on track and adding himself to the long list of RH relief options.
Full article here.
Gold Star for Grady Wood... Read More
When does good pitching win out? When it's like this
Posted by jemanji on 07/17/14
6 Comments
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11 - consecutive Felix Hernandez "Ultra Quality Starts" (7 IP, 2 ER) -- and counting
13 - MLB record, since 1914
5 - Homers given up on the season, 144 IP (this makes Felix' UQS run possible)
0.31 - HR per 9 innings, Felix, 2014
Intelligence and improved command - how is Felix achieving this 0.31 impossibility
NO - is it a simple function of groundball rate and flyball luck
YES - is it a complex function of pitch sequencing, pitchability and concentration
6.2 CTL RATIO - does Dr. D have any other "1st-level stat" that confirms the idea of Felix' concentration
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60-30 with 2.74 ERA -... Read More
2nd half to go...
Posted by jemanji on 07/17/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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Starting points are pinched from the M's own press-box report, which Bob Dutton linked. Available daily at the M's site. Like SSI, it's good read when you're out of info-tainment and are scraping the mayo jar.
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#13 - Kyle Seager's rank in the league, XBH, over the last three years (since 2012)
INFIELD - Where does Seager play, a glove or bat position
25 HR, 110 RBI - what is Seager going to do, in 2014
2006 - last time the Mariners had such an RBI man (Sexson, Ibanez)
SUPERBLY - How does Seager hit at Safeco Field
INESTIMABLE - what is this quality worth to the Mariners, in a 10-year... Read More
Well, it is late July, after all
Posted by jemanji on 07/17/14
Posted to blog
4 Comments
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This is just a first-generation triangulation, which is the hardest. As y'know, SSI is a think tank. Help us out here.
The thing I like best about a Price deal, is that (1) if you cough up Taijuan, you might get a value on Zobrist, and (2) I think K-Pax is a good ways ahead of Taijuan in line.
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Franklin + ? for Zobrist
According to the best sources, which are okay sources, "has been going on for weeks." This pairing of names is all over the place. It's logical of course, especially the positions.
It says here that you've got the definition of a win-win, balanced trade.
Franklin and... Read More
Tells yer everything you need to know, right there
Posted by jemanji on 07/17/14
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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OK, so the intel we have ... admittedly not all that reliable ... says that Byrd won't waive his no-trade to the M's because -- > they don't want to guarantee his $8M for 2015.
$8M. That is 1.7 WAR in today's market.
OK, so you don't like the idea of valuing him at 1.7 WAR. "Cosmetic change"? I think the evidence is coming in on SSI's side here. Tomorrow's news today, babe. ;- )
Let's not clutter this point. If you don't want to buy a guy for 1 year, 1.7 WAR, then --- > what say we just use the Cheney carousel and the 9-to-make 5 goodies.
..........
This thing about if the... Read More
The launch angle, a non stat
Posted by mojician on 07/16/14
12 Comments
ESPN’s Hittracker.com is a Web site that measures the physics of home runs. It measures trajectories and speed off bat, and charts the parabolas of these home runs. Yesterday, we were playing with Hittracker, and noted which players hit the ball the hardest. Doc noted that Seager was not the best on the Mariners at producing speed off the bat.
I countered by showing that Seager always had nice drive launch angles for his home runs.
Moe, who is a golfing whiz, noted that every home run is probably a nice line drive. I thought that that couldn’t be true since 45 degree launch angles... Read More
If we're worried about trading him, is he worth the convo?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 07/15/14
Posted to blog
30 Comments
DJ is our most-tradable, top-shelf hitter. He has first round cache, a top-50 prospect ranking as of mid-season by a couple of places, and is now in the upper minors. When asked about it on the radio, Zduriencik had this to say:
“I don’t have any interest in trading D.J. Peterson, I can tell you,” he said. “None at all.”
Zduriencik reiterated the point later in the interview, insisting he wasn’t interested in making deals before the July 31 trade deadline that might hurt the club in the future.
“In most cases, if someone’s asking you for D.J. Peterson, they’re gonna give you... Read More
Still no POTD for yer
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/14
Posted to blog
1 Comments
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The M's continue to be rumored on Byrd as their solution.
Level 102 is also not a POTD. Just chatter. It's July, right?
..........
1. In level 101, we gave you nothing but our past impression of him, and he's an NL player, at that. Full disclosure, baby. That being said: we called him a "cosmetic change." The M's believe otherwise.
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2. In Mojo's article, we found that Byrd has been getting a lot of "crushed HR's." This is a piece of evidence that weighs against Dr. D's impression that he has "garden-variety corner OF" bat speed, equal to or lesser than Logan Morrison's.... Read More
Zobrist and We-Need-Help! Related
Posted by Gordon Gross on 07/15/14
Posted to blog
8 Comments
This post came up simultaneously with mine and Moe's. It doesn't explicitly deal the things in those two threads. FYI. - Dr D
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On the Zobrist thread, Matt said he would be willing to trade DJ and Franklin for Ben the Magnificent, just because he fits our needs perfectly as one of the two bat adds we want before the deadline.
I said, essentially: "Calm your pants, Matthew. Peterson is our #1 prospect* and you don't cough that up for a Zobrist."
rick has a GREAT post here about the worth of prospects:
Is DJ a better prospect than Choi? Better than Blash? Is he really that much... Read More
Fun with Hittracker.com
Posted by mojician on 07/15/14
18 Comments
FORWARD:
As the site mulled the various off season adds, Rick stated that Stubbs was his hoss. This set me about thinking about some sort of stat that wasn't affected by Coors field so I could mull whether I liked Stubbs or not. Both zone discipline and speed off bat stats are affected by Coors, as off speed pitches curve less in Coors, and are easier to square up, but these stats are as park and league independent as any that I know about.
Since Hittracker online is fun, (check it out if you haven't yet done so), I decided to peruse it to learn what there was to learn about Dew Stubbs. ... Read More
And Samardzija-Addison vs Bedard-Jones
Posted by jemanji on 07/15/14
Posted to blog
3 Comments
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Prospects for veterans, those trades are understandable to 30 GM's, if not to $/WAR paradigmists. When you trade good prospects you are acknowledging that they might very well become club-controlled stars; you're not trying to treat fellow GM's like a used-car salesman would.
When an Adam Jones, much less a Wil Myers or Addison Russell, turns out to hit #3 for the other team, in real life a GM is (ostensibly) GLAD that the other team is satisfied with its trade return. GM's are classy people, generally speaking, who deal in Win-Win scenarios. They want a rep for delivering the goods when... Read More
Some accomplishments that didn't get a trip to Minnesota
Posted by Spectator on 07/15/14
Posted to blog
A brief look at some of the starring accomplishments from the guys not under the bright lights Tuesday night.
Plus ... catching up on the prospects, including an excellent outing from Victor Sanchez and the continuing hot start of Alex Jackson.
Full article here.
Home page here.
Now we're talking OBP
Posted by jemanji on 07/14/14
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29 Comments
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Q. Isn't this the guy that has Dr. D always swooning away with the vapors?
A. Full disclosure, dept: Ben Zobrist has always been one of my fave ballplayers, and one of the first I'd like to have on my team.
There's a bias going there. Dr. D may be "too close to the situation." ;- )
But there are two players for whom the July rumors are accelerating at the moment ... this guy, and Byrd.
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Q. Would Dr. D give one of the two glamor arms for him?
A. End of discussion. I might not ever talk to the Rays again, if they asked a 3rd time about it. And knowing them, that's precisely what... Read More
A cosmetic change, as Dr. D sees it
Posted by jemanji on 07/14/14
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9 Comments
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Q. What's the bottom line here?
A. No bottom line here. This is just a first impression of Marlon Byrd, WITHOUT any (of my own) detailed analysis driving it.
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Q. So, like we said. What's the bottom line here?
A. For me, Byrd is a cosmetic change. Not unlike the Cheney merry-go-round.
I wouldn't play Byrd in front of Michael Saunders; I sure as shootin' would play him in front of either Chavez or Ackley, or "DH Surprise Stew." :: shrug ::
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Q. Do you agree that he's "Nelson Cruz Lite"?
A. Spectator gives us 4 articles' worth of indisputable facts and figures, and then reasonably... Read More
Has he morphed into Nelson Cruz Lite? Yes, and that's not such a bad thing to have
Posted by Spectator on 07/14/14
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The strange career of Marlon Byrd, the selective all-around prospect who made himself into a free-swinging one-dimensional basher.
But sometimes a one-dimensional basher is just what you need, eh?
Part 1: Background
Part 2: Numbers
Part 3: Charts & Graphs
Part 4: Analysis
And I bumped up "The Menu" here, in which you can compare Byrd's numbers with Viciedo, etc.
Home page here.
Stars 6, Scrubs 2
Posted by jemanji on 07/12/14
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7 Comments
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The Coin-Op Machine
There was a chill Super Slo Mo of Iwakuma releasing a pitch. With the ball a few feet out of his hand, he pursed his lips in a "blowing up a balloon" motion. So as to control the exhale.
The Japanese senseis will all tell you to exhale during the motion. You can "KIAI!" during a gross movement like punching, but you'll never see a pitcher or batter exhaling at the moment of acceleration.
However, Iwakuma-san controls his breath as much as humanly possible ... while throwing a baseball 90 MPH at a paper plate 20 yards away, that is.
Meaning what? With the controlled... Read More
Posted by moethedog on 07/12/14
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Hitting a baseball is a skill built, like no other, on the concept of an acceptable rate of failure. In professional baseball we find the Peter Principle* proven on a daily basis.
The best players get on base ("succeed") about 40% of the time, almost at any level. If you exclude BB's, as a pitching failure but not a hitting success, then the best players suceed ("hit their way on base") only about 33% of the time. Or they hit for extra bases more than 14% of the time. Mike Trout is approximately Frank Robinson/Micky Mantle/Roy Hobbs and he hits his way on base 31% of the time, gets on... Read More
The M's get a 50-50 call? Boo hoo there, Orcs :- )
Posted by jemanji on 07/11/14
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6 Comments
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As always, the I/O is the "fact," the Crunch my "opinion" about said fact.
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I/O: A machine would have just barely called Rodney's last pitch a "ball." Probably.
CRUNCH: Rodney is much less reliable ... um, much more white-knuckle ... than his glittery stats indicate. If Rodney closed the M's way to a World Series, in games like this, it would be moderately surprising to Dr. D.
My own takeaway from that pitch: I'm fine with the game, but I'm not fine with Rodney as my closer. Well, I am fine with him if my ambition is to turn a perennial laughingstock into an 85-90 win team. I'm not... Read More
Here's what thirst for victory looks like
Posted by jemanji on 07/11/14
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I/O: The Red Sox are behind the Mariners. Hey, c'mon, everybody wants to win!
CRUNCH: One thing we can agree on: competition at the highest levels is tougher than it sounds. ;- )
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Here is my argument against the idea that "everybody wants to win equally." I could be wrong. :: ahem ::
OK, wow, we look up this morning and the Mariners have a chance make the playoffs this year! Dr. D is positively choked with admiration.
What about the last 37 years, gentlemen, shall we consider those also? The Mariners have a track record, which track record includes "this year's Robinson... Read More
After the Buck bombshell ... plus more updates
Posted by Spectator on 07/11/14
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Will Jesus Sucre help with the bat?
What about John Hicks?
Is Tyler Marlette the next big thing?
Should we care about Marcus Littlewood?
All discussed here.
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Thursday rewind:
Bartender wants to try again, and probably will.
Tacoma blasts into hyperspace.
And more here.
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Wednesday rewind:
Some Elias diagnosis
With a closeup of the pitches that got drilled
Righty-lefty twins in the Appalachian League
And more here.
Home page here.
So he (and I) better face the music
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/14
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2 Comments
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One of the most tense games Dr. Detecto has sat downto in a year or eight. We thoroughly enjoyed the (illusory) feeling of "promoting" a secret weapon and then having half the game stare down onto your kid, and you, on every pitch. I can't imagine how the real shot-callers deal with these postgames every night. Whew.
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Dr. D's Postgame Offer Changes!
Before the game Thursday Night, GM Detecto would have offered Jack Zduriencik a #100 overall prospect for (view), let us say Jameson Tallion, and would have groomed TW for his rotation.
After the Twinkie ballgame, Dr. D's confidence took a... Read More
Rock on, SSI denizens
Posted by jemanji on 07/10/14
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6 Comments
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IceX says,
Matt: Realized that the Shoutbox-by-Day is more reliable. I think the all shouts view is a code optimization issue... Feels like it's trying to drudge up every shout and then times out because there's a trillion shouts in history: the DB is screaming "wait... wait... wait... I'M TELLING YOU TO WAIT!!!" when the web server walks away...
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Yep. I use the "Shoutbox Digest" (left sidebar) myself. There is way too much good stuff that you might miss if you don't.
Visualize, if you will, a staff of 3 to tend to a garden of 1,500 sites. If $9 per month for a satellite site (in... Read More
Remember Tony LaRussa's 3-3-3 idea?
Posted by jemanji on 07/09/14
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3 Comments
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Bismillah! We will not let him go, Dept.
1. It's very cool to have a AAA team that is one city down the highway. Nothing wrong with exploiting the extra 15 men on your roster, when a single-game situation calls for that. Calls for Pryor, as in.
Taijuan's ERA in the big leagues is 3.60, you realize. With a 21:11:2 three true outcomes in 25 innings. He's not exactly Brandon Maurer'ing himself out there.
It's a deft little "taxi squad" move until proven otherwise. Or maybe the M's read the right blogs and they want Taijuan to throw 100 changeups down in the strike zone, with arm... Read More
Let's not be too sad about John Buck
Posted by mojician on 07/08/14
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Baseball is a tough business. It is not a business that your average working man, with a 401(k), a union rep, FMLA and some semblance of job security can relate to. Other than the owners, press, and peanut vendors, each person who is employed in baseball, including the general manager, his coaches, scouts, trainers, analysts and players, all operate under the same directive: You live in baseball only so long as you find work, and you work only so long as your labor improves winning at the major league level. In this place, you have to run as fast as you can just to stay where you are.
... Read More
Here y'go Señor Sugar: a set of steak knives
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/14
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25 Comments
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Q. Do you suppose he was Kelly Shoppach'ed?
A. That was Dr. D's assumption as it was Tacoma Rain's. That Shoppach got into a yelling match over his playing time, and was told if he didn't like it he could hit the road. Fill in your own $#*"#@#% response to that.
But the Times article has it that the whole clubhouse was ticked out of its mind. Buck was happy, McClendon was happy, Zunino was happy, everybody was happy.
We just did a piece, on the fact that (1) Willie Bloomquist, (2) John Buck and (3) Endy Chavez are part of what makes the 9-to-make-5 magic happen. Buck was helping make... Read More
In life you only get one canvas, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/14
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6 Comments
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Dr. D loves words and concepts that:
Are far too rich to draw a consensus among postgrad students
Are far too clear to be disagreed upon by 5-year-olds
The word "masterpiece" is frequently an inkblot test. In our arguing over whether a given piece of literature qualifies, usually we reveal more about ourselves than the work itself. This applies to pitching, also.
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Strictly speaking, a "masterpiece" is a work of craftsmanship that demonstrates such a complete command of skill that it would immediately gain the craftsman entrance into a guild.
In Norman Rockwell's piece, above, he... Read More
Lose the battle, win the war Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/14
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2 Comments
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Brandon Maurer returned to the Mariners on June 25th, pitching out of the bullpen. At this link you can review, Dr. D's review, of the Red Sox' hapless review, of Maurer's A+ outing. Complete with David Ortiz humiliation and all the trimmings.
On June 29th, he pitched again out of the bullpen, this time grading "A" on the SSI meter. Fortunately for the Indians, MLB dugouts provide "hardened" shelters against such radioactivity.
On July 1st, Maurer butchered the Astros in a 13-2 blowout, but we didn't catch that game. In lieu of a Detect-O-Scan, we'll provide the stats for his 4 bullpen... Read More
A modest proposal (not really all that modest, actually)
Posted by Spectator on 07/07/14
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3 Comments
In which I propose a six-for-two swap with Tampa Bay. No, not really the least bit modest.
Outline here.
Why the Rays would do it. Here.
Why the Mariners would do it. Here.
Home page here.
Two-fisted smackdowns, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/07/14
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2 Comments
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Bullet Points
1) It was remarkable: what Taijuan was trying to do, Noesi actually was doing. We'd say that only 1 MLB game out of 100, do you find two such similar-looking pitchers mirror'ed off against each other. In this case, it was one guy doing it right, one guy doing it wrong. So, it was instructive.
Hot fastballs wild in the zone
Changeups, about -5 MPH not really good enough, as the only "keep em honest" idea
Special talent, unharnessed
High release points
White knuckle (notice that Noesi gave up like 1 hit before the bullpen scrambled)
etc
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2) Taijuan, who is more raw than... Read More
Aretha Franklin, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/14
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8 Comments
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RESPECT is a feeling of admiration.
It is elicited by another person's achievements, attitudes, or character. Typically it is associated with a certain level of deference. It recognizes the intrinsic worth of another person - almost always, because of the choices they make, and not because of the talents they were born with.
You don't respect blond hair; you respect a bald person using a walker in a courageous fashion (as I witnessed at the gas station the other night, where a young man took several minutes cheerfully folding up his walker to put it into the back of his truck. How... Read More
Can we ever just enjoy? :- )
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/14
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3 Comments
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Spec's article up, "Since April 23, The. Best. Record. In. Baseball"
Which coincides with --- > Kyle Seager jumping into the ring with Robinson Cano, and Hisashi Iwakuma doing the same alongside Felix.
There has a been a sense, since late April, that the Mariners are well capable of "going to war" as Sweet Lou puts it.
The dynamics aren't complicated, in my view; with the 1-2 Cy Young pitchers and Rodney, and a cast of willing arms, the M's indeed have a championship pitching staff. And now that there are two guys "who can drive in runs," the lineup can at least fight to support them... Read More
6-for-6, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/04/14
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3 Comments
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Mojo sez, in his Joy Cometh In the Morning article,
Here, we have the won/loss totals broken down by teams. This explains how Oakland got an astounding record of 19 games over .500.
First, Oakland whomps in interleague play, with a record of 7 and 1. Second, Oakland has achieved most of the rest of its damage against the Lastros, Twinkies and Hated Angels. Plus two records against New York and Cleveland round out its winning ways. The Orcs basically tread water with every other team.
Excepting of course, the class of the American League. That old enemy, the Detroit Tigers, has... Read More
Whoa! Din't expect to see THAT, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 07/02/14
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29 Comments
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Solly Chollie, didn't getta see much of the game. Gotta get a game stub up, with the day off.
According to some wacky-and-wunnerful site called "Brooksbaseball.net," Young whuffed the Astros 16 times in 99 pitches. This is in market contradistinction to his 2014 average of 6.1 whuffs per 100 pitches and his lifelong bad habit of 9.2 per 100.
According to the same site, Young's slider count was also way, way up -- 41 sliders and curves amongst 99 pitches, compared to the usual 20-22 that are usually thrown outside the zone in "show me" fashion. According to GameDay, there was nothing "... Read More
So says ESPN. It was the ET-T11-PABHR, the Scotch & Shuuto
Posted by Spectator on 07/02/14
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The crack research department at ESPN determines that, from April 23 on, the Best Record in Baseball belongs to ... your Seattle Mariners.
And all you bandwagoners are just getting on board now?
You should have known that it all started when the Best Third Baseman in Baseball (if you start counting on April 23) came to the plate on that day.
Then came the Scotch and the Shuuto.
Full article here.
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And a little look back at April 23.
Here.
Home page here.
Plus Kuma, Maurer, etc.
Posted by Spectator on 07/02/14
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5 Comments
First Trade Deadline 2014 piece:
The Big Need (RH-hitting OF)
The Menu (20 guys on non-contenders who are, well, RH-hitting OF)
Full article here.
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Plus:
Iwakuma's shuuto was shuuto-ing again.
Maurer Power 2.0 is in full gear in relief, and why.
The usual minors rewind, with stuff like "Alex Jackson is .400/.458/.500 through 5 games"
Full article here.
Home page here.
Power from middle infield & catcher = good ... plus more Taijuan ... and Z1 vs. Z2
Posted by Spectator on 07/01/14
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The Mariners already have one of the best middle-infield + catcher power combinations in baseball.
It was on display Monday night.
This is a good thing.
All the details here.
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Plus, breaking Taijuan into two-inning chunks.
And the minors rewind.
Full article here.
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And more! I mentioned it in a comment, but there's also an analysis of Jack Z: Thing One and Thing Two.
Dr. LH OBP and Mr. RH SLG.
Full article here.
Home page here.