Doc you have been making this same point recently about wishing the M's would focus more on what they are GETTING in trades vs what they are GIVING UP. Your point finally clicked with me thinking about this Rosenthal piece...that the worst and most scarring trades of M's history can be looked at from two different angles. The M's themselves (clearly) and most of us fans tend to fixate on what we gave up - Choo, Cab, Jones...we've all got PTSD that we're going to do it again and lose another generation of our top talent. But from a different angle, the problem with those trades is we didn't get back what we were hoping for. Bedard was injury prone and didn't continue to be the #1 starter in MLB*. Broussard and Perez didn't hit. Smoak hasn't hit enough. Etc.
Reality is, in a fair trade you SHOULD lose something that hurts, if you expect to get something good back. Teams have different needs at different times, that's what makes a real trade market. We ought to focus less on the losses, and more on getting what we want in return. Z appears to be a bit paralyzed by loss aversion, and not having any *FUN* wheeling and dealing for the guys HE wants. Does he even really know who he wants? (I think the answer is NO, which is the main thesis of the Rosenthal piece (and in a way the Baker piece), and which suggests he is not fit to be our GM long term.)
Of course, Lincoln is a significant part of the problem too because...when your boss doesn't fundamentally understand the business you're in and has no clue what a good decision or process actually looks like...but he nonetheless controls the budget and your livelihood...it's pretty hard to be a confident shot caller. Whatever you think of Wedge, I say give him credit, that he played it straight and went out on his terms.
Good stuff, now Z...make me look like an idiot and get something good done!!
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Q. Is Ackley fixed?
A. "No" actually is Spanish for No, besides the fact that Jase is tongue in cheek. The Robertsons play like they're dumb. They're in on the joke, which is more than Dr. D can say for himself.
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Ackley doesn't look fixed to me, not permanently. He may be permanently improved. That's a much different thing.
We've talked about it any number of times. To Dr. D, the key is NOT in this or that component stat. It is in the concept of "greed" .... in mechanical terms, this manifests itself by Ackley hurling his weight down the 1B line in an effort to get a cheap homer.
Moe followed on strongly, pointing out that Ackley does not deal well with adversity. Up to and including the beard thingie.
Jason Churchill now follows on, adding several interesting ideas of his own. Here's his article.
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Q. Has there been any change in Ackley's "ki"?
A. To me, the problem is solved if and when his "ki" stops hurling itself down the 1B line.
We say "ki" ... imagine a ray of light beaming out from his center of gravity. This ray of light represents his subconscious intentionality. That is 100% consistent with what Moe is getting at; when the golf-style "psyche" is fixed, the ki will be fixed. When a golfer learns to "like" the idea of laying up in front of the green and scoring well, he's fixed.
Review this July swing on video. I'd say he's been ... oh .... 60% fixed in July. If you visualize the last bone in his spine, it looks like it's still longing for the RF stands. :: shrug ::
What will Ackley's subconscious intentionality be in August? Does Ackley now "like" crisp line drives to LF, does he "like" being something other than what he was in college? You, dear reader, can guess that as well as I can. As well as Zduriencik can. As well as anybody can.
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Bottom line is, it doesn't look to me like Ackley's "ki" is truly towards a base hit. It looks to me like he's wanting to do this until he rediscovers his .700 slugging percentage. But that's just me.
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Q. Could Ackley become a star #2 hitter?
A. His on-field results might have blotted out the sun for us. The "sun" being the fact that Dustin Ackley is a special talent.
We've talked (speculated) about what it might take for Ackley to subconsciously accept himself as a .300 hitter with moderate gap power. To set the goal of being Johnny Damon, as opposed to Mike Trout.
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Q. There have been tons of articles, claiming that 29 GM's think Zduriencik can't finish a deal. Or is that the committee?
A. Dr. D has many reasons that he believes -- opines -- it to be both. Dr. D thinks that Zduriencik would frustrate other GM's very similarly, if he ran the Angels. That's just an opinion, based on things like Zduriencik pulling out of the Montero deal to take Justin Smoak, things that the Committee wouldn't care about.
Zduriencik "wrote MLBTR a long letter" (!!! are you kidding me) protesting that other GM's do this too, pull out of deals. This misses the point that other GM's say he does it too much.
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When a man is fearful of finishing deals, when he is focused on the downside, that tentativeness says some pretty negative things about his ability to function as a shot-caller. (Perhaps you transfer this concern to the Mariners as an organism.)
Before expanding on this, Dr. D had better let the trade deadline pass. HEH!
But we can say this, whatever happens on July 31: some young poets enter law school just because ... how could you not. And some scouts become GM's because .... how could you not. In both cases, you wind up with problems that can't be overstated. Starting with life happiness.
Spectator has been saying, for a while, that you've got a scout here attempting to function as GM. As so often, the more time passes, the more Dr. D tends to come around to Spec's softly-stated suggestions.
There's a certain kind of guy who is cut out to be a real shot-caller. It has nothing to do with gruff social veneer. It has to do with dyed-in-the-wool confidence. Billy Beane doesn't pull out of Jones-for-Bedard deals, and that's because he does not fear being Bavasi'ed by us goofballs who run blogs. Pryor for Morales, that is nothing that USSM is ever going to Bavasi him for. Marlon Byrd, same thing.
Shot-callers are decisive, and are not encumbered by the fact that they will make mistakes.
Billy Beane relishes the chance to make a bold decision. He loves a high risk / high reward chance to prove he's the best. Billy Beane is cut out for his job.
Your friend,
Dr D
Comments
Here's an article on it.
Konerko and Carlos Santana are ex-Dodgers prospects ... there's Beltre, Colon, Morales, Edwin Jackson, Russell Martin, etc etc.
That particular article isn't the best ... I mean, Pedro Martinez was traded away from the Dodgers ... but every MLB team has LOTS of ex-players on other teams' rosters. If ex-Mariners were not very common -- including guys like David Ortiz, Jason Varitek*, Gil Meche*, Doug Fister, etc ... it would mean there was no talent in our minors.
Imagine listing ex-Oakland A's in the last 20 years and what they did for their teams.
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Baseball is terrible about "Bavasi'ing" GM's who lose trades -- it will wallow in a "backfire" trade for decades -- but in Seattle it is terrible times 10.
Bill James once said that 90% of the worst trades in baseball history were --- > a prospect for an aging star. GM's know that, but it's the nature of the game. Much MORE often, the team gets an impact player short-term, and the prospect turns out to be nothing important.
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You're right: if Erikkk had done what he was capable of, Bavasi would never have regretted that trade.
Same is true of James Shields: as long as Shields is an Opening Day starter, stabilizing the Royals and providing a "maypole" to build around, the Royals won't care what Wil Myers does. 30 GM's will tell us the same thing.
If Jeff Samardzija provides the A's what he is supposed to provide, Billy Beane won't care what Addison Russell does.
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A rich man taught me this, 25 years ago. "Buy a little more house than you can afford. Three years from now you won't remember the price, but you will be pleased there are no lizards in the cellar." Heh!
If the M's trade does FOR THEM what it is supposed to do -- provide an impact player and a pennant race -- then let the chips fall where they may, on the prospects given up.
A LOT of Beane trades have actually gone sideways too. From trading for Matt Holiday for CarGo (COL Division) and Huston Street, and subsequently dumping him for next to nothing. Or trading away Nelson Cruz, Andre Ethier and any number of prospects for other players.
Also, isn't Shark the first major midseason addition by trade for Beane since like Johnny Damon or Jermaine Dye? That was like 10 years ago!
But the guy keeps on shooting and he stays ahead. Doesn't get sunk with his choices. The guy is remorseless!
Blowers mentioned the lunging thing in a broadcast right before the ASB. He said that they have been working on it and that he's not doing it in BP but the changes just hadn't manifested in games yet. That was a few weeks ago and while the lunge might be less pronounced now, the ony substantive change that I've seen is that he's setting up closer to the plate.
The lunge thing is. .. annoying, I guess is the right word, for me, anyway.
But I find a couple of other things interesting. (Z wrote to ESPN or Fox, not MLBtraderumors.com, by the by.)
First, Mather is either using voodoo math, or lying because he thinks we're stupid. And if he's using voodoo math--then he's lying, because he thinks we're stupid.
M's are NOT at over $100 million, even after adding Morales' $4.whatevuh. They're at $95.
Second, it's a big deal that Dutton reported that multiple sources confirmed that the M's had deals with both Morales AND Cruz nixed by ownership. Morales called it a "miscommunication."
The Beav should keep his mouth shut, because anyone paying attention knows he doth protest way too much.
Finally, the M's Great Offensive (in so many ways) Disappearing Act just happens to coincide with Lloyd's "popgun... shotgun" comment, which was published (perhaps not said, that wasn't clear) immediately after they dropped a 30-spot on the 'Stros, as I recall.
Whether true or not, it shouldn't have been said.
...just sayin'...
1. Indeed Ackley's hot, however even Willie Bloomquist looks pretty darn good when he's hot. The M's now have a ticket to ride the Ackley train right......but only because there are few options (Ex: if we didn't give Kelly a try when Ackley was abysmal, we're not swapping them now) and this one has built a bit of a head of steam. But let's not bet that the Ackley Express is bound for glory and will not break down again. Ackley struggles with Ackley more than he struggles with MLB pitchers. And in that, he's facing a much more difficult adversary.
2. Did Z really write to MLBTR? If so, I think The Bard once wrote about that: "The lady doth protest too much, methinks."
3. Almost anything Z might swap away now came to the M's during his regime and "as a result" of his scouting. There is a bit of Gollum in him, methinks: "My precious! Sneaky little hobbitses. Must have my precious!"
4. Scouts identify resources. GM's leverage them. Not the same thing.
Hamlet is popular around here! Kudos for beating me to the punch, Merrill!
Do you have a source for Dutton reporting?
Re the payroll, I had the same eyebrow raise reaction to Mather's whining about how they are really spending $100M. But I assumed maybe he was pro-rating the current monthly payroll with Kendrys included, over a full season. A little bit of fuzzy math, but not outright lying. Of course, it's not like an extra $5M payroll puts us up there with the Yankees...so I'm still not sure exactly what his point was, other than to whine.
I guess when I've watched Ackley the past couple of weeks I've seen what I've been waiting to see. For months he's been pulling off outside pitches and striking out or hitting limp grounders. Finally he starts keeping his head still and shoulder in and starts hitting with authority - some of the time. The rest of the time he's getting greedy and his swing is longer and his shoulder starts to fly again. If he could just repeat the good swings! ;-) ! I do have hope that HoJo is trying to get him to lock in the good swing, but it is a big IF.
I suppose on my deathbed, I'll be sitting with my tablet planning a trip to Disneyland with my grandkids, trying to figure out how to catch an Angels-Ms game at the Big A on the same trip. My grandkids will not want to go with me " 'cause all Grandpa talks about is ancient history when the Ms were winning and had Edgar and Bone and Jamie and Ichiro - whoever they are!"
Could Mathers be counting payments on the books still being paid to Ichiro??? Or to run the Dominican/Venezuelan Academies?
The M's have been doing this for as long as we can remember -- overstating, maybe grossly overstating, their payroll. They want two things:
The best positive annual cashflow in the industry (#1)
For us to all believe they're spending tons on players, and don't care much about profit
It drives me as crazy as it does you Merrill.
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You're a bit new here and we hope you post daily. One minor note - in the comments we're a bit more genteel than the average site. "The Beav," "The Pencil" and so forth are about two degrees past our sensibilities. Dr. D's own shtick in the articles, people know how to roll their eyes at that. :- )
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Thanks for the correction on Z's letter! Good stuff.
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Agree. The M's statements on their payroll ... they'd be better off reverting to form (silence) on that. Of all things, they choose to speak out on that? And always to counterproductive effect.
Thanks!,
Jeff
Another 275-yarder in the fairway. 7-iron to a wide-open green amigo.
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Is that Shakespeare's best line? It's so profound, it rolls off the tongue so easily, it is universal, it uses 2nd-grade vocabulary. Of course he had a hundred memorable lines, but maybe that's the best.
He has moved in, is attending to the outside pitches, and from the letters on the uniform up, he looks great. From the belly button down he looks, um, not as bad.
Like we sez, my own clipboard shows "improved" as opposed to "fixed." But if he can OBP .325 and SLG .400, he can help win some Iwakuma games, no?
Howdy, sir. BD wrote that little tidbit in one of his Q & A colymns. I'll find the link for you, although I'm not sure you'll see it, as I think maybe this site doesn't notify us of replies..? Hopefully I'm wrong.
Well, re: TheBeav's fuzzy math, yeah, I see that as outright lying. But the truth is, great minds DON'T think alike, except inasmuch they think differently from most everyone else, so ... yeah ... wegot THAT goin' for us...
http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2014/07/03/mariners-qa-what-are-...
Also, re: Mather's whining, the funny thing about it is that according to multiple sources, it's Z who has been fueling the idea that the M's don't have payroll wiggle room, to the extent that at least one reporter wrote somewhere (Twittah, p'rhaps) that more than one baseball source was surprised that the M's took on all Morales' remaining salary.
Oops, sorry, posted again calling Mr. Mather The Beav... I promise it was before I read your response!
I used to comment a lot on Geoff's blog, but I was mostly either doing it at work in 2007 when I had a good Internet connection and a lot of free time, or, later, instead of doing something productive after or before work. Since 2011 or so I haven't had much of a commenting presence anywhere.
For example, I'm on vacation from my job in Libya now. Fat chance my job will still be there any time soon! So really, I should be looking for work instead of screwing around. But it's the trade deadline, dammit!
Y'all have a great community here, and your welcoming and inclusive attitude is awesome andmmuch appreciated!
Thanks again for all your excellent content, everyone, it's really above and beyond, quality-wise.
And in particular, Dr. D/jemanji/Jeff, thanks for fostering such an environment. Can't say enough about how brilliant that is!
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@ProspectInsider: Boy does this -- http://t.co/uMHnl3ykSD -- look so much better than this -- http://t.co/MEGu1pBr75 #ackley
Interesting. Hard to say if this is sports SOP or a sign of Jack's lack of freedom to operate. Ownership always makes final call who gets a big check of course, for any sports team. But did Z think he had the leeway to cut these deals and then get rejected by the committee after the "handshake"? Can see how something like that would reflect poorly on his rep around the league. But really it's hard to say one way or another w/o more detail that we'll never get.