Austin Jackson thread
AJ fans, speak up :- )

csiems sez,

I'm having a hard time believing the reserved reactions to this deadline from the local community.

Jackson is a dynamic player that a team can win (and has won) its next pennant with. When the trade was going down, national pundits were screaming that Walker HAD to be included!

I think we will look back on this and say it was Trader Jack at his best. - See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/trade-deadline-con#comment-147059

....

This point has traction.  Hope that CS and others follow up in Jackson's defense.

Dr. D wasn't following the real-time deadline news; that's what this team has done to him.  :- )  But that's interesting, if "Jackson to Seattle" rumblings caused the Rosenthals to presume that Taijuan Walker would be the cost.  Link us up, maybe?

.....

Austin Jackson has never been my kind of player, either in the general template or as to Jackson specifically.  My own UNJUSTIFIED bias is that the Cameron Maybin 5-Tool Scout Specials too often turn out to be athletes rather than ballplayers.

To my eye, Jackson's swing is stiff and mechanical, as though he's feeling for the ball.  But like we said earlier, his K's are going down yearly, and maybe he is simply working hard and developing late.

But, of course, Jackson himself has played very well the last four years. His WAR have been 3.9, 2.4, 5.2, and 3.1 before this year -- that's #14 in the American League over that time period, and 3rd among AL centerfielders.  (Whattaya WANT, Dr. D?!)

....

The news says that Jackson got a standing O from the Detroit fans when pulled from the game.  Apparently he's a great guy, and the Detroit regulars think he's quite a ballplayer.

Ron Shandler at BaseballHQ is very bullish on Jackson having a big breakout in front of him.  I don't fancy Austin Jackson, but objectively speaking, you've got a potential core player here.

Cheers,

Jeff

Blog: 

Comments

1

#1 Comparable at his age? Lou Brock.
That's the kind of mid season acquisition you want. Historic.

2

cs said,
"Jackson is a dynamic player that a team can win (and has won) its next pennant with."
Absolutely.  Just make sure you surround him with a Miggy and a Fielder.  
Jackson is a very nice player.  He isn't the type of player that takes a team to the promised land.  Let's just figure that his 129 OPS in '12 is a bit outside his norm.  Fair, I think (he's a 104 career guy).  Assuming that Franklin is a 95 OPS player (fair, I think...that was exactly his OPS last year) , we made an offensive upgrade:  A good hitting MIF for a good hitting CF.  But we didn't have a place for Franklin, so that nudges the ball even more into Jackson's court.  He's easily a very nice get.
But he's complementary player.  Denorfia actually has a better career bat, don't ya' know.  Or OPS says so, anyway. Nobody is talking about how much he's a terrific prize.  I'm not trying to knock the trade.  We got Austin Jackson for something pretty surplus (for us).  But we were always going to get some kind of decent OF bat for Franklin.  
We could have got a Viciedo.  Or a Stubbs.  We did way better than that.  But let's hope Cano and Seager = Miggy and Fielder.     That would help our pennant chances, certainly.
But I'm not complaining about the guy we got.  Just wish we could have got a guy like that on June 1st.  It's a passing grade for Z.  But he doesn't step to the head of the GM class with this one.
We now go to battle for 50+ games.  The enemy host is tremendous.....and newly armed.  But we've girded our loins and we're freshly armed, too.  Let the fray begin.  

3

And Phil Rogers used a Walker tweet about how hungry he was to confirm that he was in the trade. Journalism!
Seems like Walker would be going to Rays but again, unconfirmed. This confirmed: Walker's recent tweet: "Ughhhh.''
— Phil Rogers (@philgrogers) July 31, 2014

4

I look at Jackson and see 5 WAR upside, which is conceivably better than what Price will give the Tigers this year, is certainly more valuable to the M's if they make the playoffs (M's already having a playoff caliber 3-man pitching rotation).
If this deal could have been done sooner, though, sure it would've been better, but TB was holding things up on their end. From what it sounds like, it took one of Dombrowski's crazy "get the guy at all costs even if it hurts us" offers to get Price back on the market. (Tigers don't have a ready replacement for Jackson, and I still maintain that Adames is the lynchpin to this deal--scouts are saying he's Addison Russell caliber.)
Bless You Boys did a trade reaction piece that laments the loss of Jackson and doesn't even mention Smyly, Adames or even Price! They are are genuinely going to miss his production. (He was their Cameron to Granderson's Griffey).
This team is flawed, but it can get to the playoffs. Jackson-Seager-Cano-Morales-Saunders-Zunino will provide the offense. The pitching staff can keep us in the games. Let's do this.

5

Here are three tweets in a row by Jim Callis:
Are we seriously supposed to believe #Rays get only Smyly & Franklin for Price? I like Smyly & Franklin, they're young & cheap, but ...
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) July 31, 2014
Lot of confusion as to whether Taijuan Walker is part of this Price deal. Seems like he has to be. But Walker & Franklin for Jackson? #Rays
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) July 31, 2014
We know @Tigers made a good trade. Either @Mariners or @RaysBaseball did not, but we don't know which one.
— Jim Callis (@jimcallisMLB) July 31, 2014

6

But...Jackson has 600 more PAs in SIX fewer seasons. Having watched Jones slowly get ground down at lead off with every passing month has been hard. And it makes Jackson's body of work all that more impressive (he's only a couple years older too). And, on top of that, Jackson is getting stronger as the season wears on, he OPSed .891 for July! This guy is a solid, rock solid, lead off guy playing center field. Every dang day. It's really the difference between a John Jaso and a Mike Zunino. Don't get caught up in the flaws here. This is one tough ball player.

10

While Jackson is having a good couple months recently, Lloyd should be able to keep him on track going forward.
Further, I hope Lloyd's connection with Jackson will make him want to stay and play in Saettle.

11

You wanted Rios? You wanted Byrd? You wanted Willingham?
Fine, but with them...you'd also still have Jones playing center field.
Condemning Jackson because he's not more like Mike Trout is absolutely applying the wrong metric. Look at the distance between him and Almonte/Jones. In the middle of a playoff race. And for next year (at least) as well. Would Price have created the same gap over Elias? I don't know...maybe. But only one day out of five.
As someone pointed out in the other thread, We now have a 2B and a catcher and a CF and a 3B locked and loaded. Behind our pitching staff.
It's impossible not to see this as a huge win for Z. Hate him for past transgressions. Today he did his job admirably.

12

The Tigers got Kinsler over the winter and decided to let him hit leadoff. Ausmus pushed Jackson down in the order.
Then he changed his mind. Back in the leadoff spot, Jackson has gone 327/371/477. Is that a BABIP-inflated small sample size? Yep.
But for his career batting leadoff, he's 280/343/418. Doesn't that sound nice?

13

Since I could watch as the deadline approached. Everyone expected Walker to be added and consensus was that Seattle stole Jackson when it came out that he wasn't. I'm not saying they're the best analysts but Jackson is considered a top 10 or so overall CF in the game. He's not nearly Guti with the glove but this is pretty close to a comp for exactly the guy this teams been missing in CF. If only Guti had regained his health...But Jackson should do nicely even as the player he's been since 23 or so, even 26. That he's got upside only makes him an even better acquisition.
Along with the strikeout % dropping, it was noted earlier this year that his fly balls were greatly increased this year. His LD as well. His distances are slightly higher to a point where his peers are generally in the 12-14% HR/FB (which is about where he'd been the last few years) yet he's been at 3.6% this year. It seems he started out the year trying to be more MOTO and has since toned that down. His recent hot streak brought his BABIP back to his normal range and his FB and LD rates have lowered. Before that he was mentioned by several as a potential buy low candidate. The HR/FB is still probably due to regress though.
On his defense I hadn't looked at stats until a few minutes ago. All I knew was from having watched him, he always seemed to be 2nd tier to me. Not elite but definitely better than average. Most defensive rate metrics seem to put him above average in fact most have him below average. What am I missing? He's 1st in OOZ plays in CF the last 4 years, 3rd the last 3 years (Span/CarGo), 5th the last 2 years. Is that a mirage from positioning? 2nd to Cargo in DRS the last 4 years but it was 29 DRS in 11 then 5 in 12 then 3 and 0 this year. He peaked defensively at 25?

15
SeattleNative57's picture

We own a CF that hits 280/340/410, runs like the wind and plays defense like his life depends on him catching the ball. Besides playing well, his teammates love him, the fans in Detroit love him and Mac thinks we'll love him. I'm all-in. Best CF pick-up since Gutti ... oops, don't wanna jinx things. Best CF since Cameron imo.

16
SeattleNative57's picture

Not too shabby. Visitors take their lumps at Safeco too. That slash is actually higher than most of his new teammates. Best thing is he won't face our pitching.

18

I haven't condemned Jackson at all.  He's indeed a fine player.  Basically I poked at Z for not making such a trade a month ago.
In '14, are 50 games of Jackson better than 80 games of Rios?  I like this trade a lot. We got more ballplayer than we were talking about AND we kept our young guns.  Much to like in that.
Essentially it was the lack of )perceived) urgency on Z's part that bugs me.  I may well be wrong.  Behind closed doors and all that.  If we get an early extension on Jackson's contract, I'll easily bump this trade up to a B or B+ grade.
Hidden in all this is, of course, the hint that we could have brought Price here without sending Walker/Paxton there. Perhaps that was never the possibility.  And it was a bat that we needed, of course.
What hasn't been said (or I haven't read) is that the two moves seemed destined to keep the M's in the heart of the WC race this season.  Unless the Yankees, who got a very nice player in Prado, get hot and run away and hide (but they haven't the staff to do that) or our staff totally collapses (which it won't), then this is a horse race and we're on the rail and running smooth.  September will mean something in Safeco.  It hasn't for a while.
In a vacuum, Jackson for Walker is a heck of a swap.  Of course, in a vacuum it would be if we did it on Sept. 14th, too.  But by then we would have all pulled out our hair and wailed at the trade gods.  30 games ago would have been just a bit more ducky for me.
That's all.  But we did get a very fine player.  He's durable, flashes true CF leather, and doesn't have any big holes.  
All that AND we got a nice bat in Denorfia.  He's a fine guy to have, too.  
Play ball,
 
moe

19

I'm still trying to figure out why Rios didn't get dealt. We know that the asking price on Byrd was crazy, but Rios seemed gettable and useful for a lot of teams. Maybe Texas wants him back for '15 when the team is healthy?

20
tjm's picture

I gotta think that the way Jones was sinking he would have been out of the line-up more often than not over the next two months and watching Endy try to play center with Hart beside him would have killed the pitching staff, Young, in particular. (Not to mention the effect it would have on Matt!).
An everyday CF with a good not great right-handed bat was exactly what the M's needed. Nobody was talking about it much because there weren't any of those guys available until suddenly there was. I think this was a masterful trade even if Franklin becomes a minor star, which I think he will. I thinhk Seattle and the Rays won this trade. Not sure how much of an improvemnt if any the Tigers made.

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