April 2012
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/12
4 Comments
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Of course Mariano Rivera is the greatest relief pitcher who ever lived. If you cut him in half, you might have the two greatest relievers ever. ;- ) Now the arguments have begun whether he is the greatest pitcher ever. He has the best ERA+ of all time, and his postseason record is beyond belief: an 0.70 ERA in about a hundred playoff games, 141 innings.
What is even weirder is that he is untouchable, despite the fact that he throws one pitch 90% of the time (this season, 93.8% of the time). The famed Rivera cutter.
Did you ever wonder what makes Rivera's cutter so... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/30/12
16 Comments
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Last May we offered an analysis of League's Sasaki Syndrome. League replied, in the papers, that if he executed his game it shouldn't matter that hitters know what's coming.
Okay, maybe, but this year it has been mattering more and more. League now has 7 K and 5 BB in 13 innings. There is no such thing as a closer who sustains success on those ratios. You won't find any, because there aren't any. Closers have to have good K/BB ratios. 'cause they have to pitch good, and pitching good creates high K/BB ratios.
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=== 2012 To Date ===
Here are League's pitch tendencies... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/29/12
7 Comments
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And that 5.6 WAR is as low as it is only because of his BABIP.
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=== Ichiro's Line Drive Rate = .291. His BABIP = .292. ===
I actually have begun to wonder whether maybe (10% chance) there is something about Ichiro's game that --- when he hits the ball in the air --- he is prone to hit screaming 275-foot line drives that hold up for the OF's.
Maybe for a bigger guy those long line drives would go 325 feet, and disperse the defense. The perimeter of that wedge is a lot larger, more ground to cover, as it is farther away from home plate.
So I wonder, perhaps, if... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
19 Comments
Q. Do two homers create an SSI stock call on the Condor?
A. They do not, thanks for asking. Here is an example: Saunders started the season 3-for-10, the crowd was chipper, and we screamed bloody murder that the swing was deteriorating. We wrote that people shouldn't be misled by the fact that balls fell in. Saunders himself agreed, ending an SSI debate as to whether Saunders' checkpoints were an issue.
I don't care about a good game or two. It's about repeatable technique.
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Q. Where has Saunders been with his swing this month?
A. It's been off and on, more off than on, until... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
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=== Gameflow: Chapter 1, Pregame===
The M's caught a 38-minute airplane ride from Motown, USA and parachuted down into Canada to face the nation's best baseball pitcher.
Ricky Romero has been a roto fave of BABVA since before he was very good, and now is not "before he was very good." Romero started the year ranked #16 on James' "World's #1 Starting Pitcher" list, and already this year he has climbed to #11, equidistant between Sabathia, C.J. Wilson, Shields and Lester. Romero ranks ahead of Lincecum, Haren, Greinke, and Beckett.
I'm not sure that Romero is that good,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
I believe I can fly, Dept.
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=== Gameflow: Jays get to Insano ===
Thames' homer was off a 97 Insano fastball. Nothing wrong with 97 MPH, unless you're going to quibble that down-and-in is the wheelhouse to a lefty.
What the hey, it ain't like pitchers can hit the mitt every time they huck the ball. Whattaya want. Wilhelmsen didn't throw the ball much differently than he did any other night. Sometimes the hitter swings in the right place, and sometimes he doesn't. That's all.
A second miracle run scored after Insano threw the ball down to the RF line. We mention this... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
7 Comments
=== Alex Liddi ===
In the 2nd, J.P. Arencibia knocked a sharp single into left field. Except a 240-lb. meat loaf hurled itself airborne, picked the ball off like Petr Cech, and threw. him. out. A vintage Brooks Robinson play.
Watching Liddi move around out there, watching his savvy around the base, I started to get a sick feeling about dogging him earlier. That's okay. If I start to drown, I'll step on G-Money's head and get a couple of precious extra breaths.
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=== Jesus Montero ===
Wants to hit first, hit for power second. Dr. D is choked with admiration. Start the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
8 Comments
For nine hundred YEARS have *I* not brushed my teeth ....
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In March, Luke made zero sense to SSI, because 87 MPH lefthanders don't pitch out of the pen. For nine hundred years has Jay-Z trained jedi, and he kept his own counsel as to which Rule 5 padawan learners he would keep.
As it turned out, Luetge's fastball was not 87 MPH; it's a good 89-90 and with his motion, from the left side, it's plenty quick. But the fastball matters not. Judge Luke by his fastball do you? Hmmmm? Hm! And well you should not. For the slider is Luke's ally.
Per F/X, Luke's slider bites... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/27/12
19 Comments
Why is it that 30% of all batted balls go for base hits, and it is even true that no individual hitter sustains a BABIP outside the 25-35% range?
What is it in the nature of a baseball game that causes 25-35% of batted balls to hit the ground and fall for base hits? If we could grasp that, we could grasp why a 25% line drive rate, with a .250 BABIP, mean bad luck, even over the course of 30 at-bats. Here's a hint: would as many balls fall into the sides of this Pachinko machine as would fall into the middle? Why or why not?
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If you dropped 30 balls down a Pascal board, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/12
6 Comments
Jack said it, not me:
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First ups, Avila set Wilk a two-strike target low-away, right on the outside corner at the knees. Wilk snapped off a hard breaking pitch right on the black, and six inches BELOW the target.
Montero threw the bat head at the Outside of Zone (OOZ) ball and softly lined it down the RF line for a looong single and the lead. An Edgar Martinez trick.
Here's the video. Don't stop till you get enough, MJ... till you grok that "throw" action, that is. This is Ichiro-, Gwynn-level HIT application here. The still photo, if you don't care to click over to the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/12
11 Comments
=== Gameflow ===
The M's crushed the Tigers like a pop can.
The no-hitter was followed by a couple of 15-hitters, which has us walkin' all loose and jangly, Satch. Did they say that Felix is 39-1 lifetime with a 4-run lead? Or 39-1 with 4 runs of support? Has to be the former. Or he'd be worth $100M per year to the Yankees ......
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==== The Dark Before the Dawn, Dept. ===
Going into last night's games, here were the best pitching staffs in the American League. The top six consisted of the five teams that the Mariners have played, along with the Yankees.
Let's re-state that. The Seattle... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/12
26 Comments
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=== Jesus Montero ===
Somebody axed the beefy HOF NFL lineman Dan Dierdorf whether he had been on steroids. "I was on cheeseburgers," Dan said. That'll do for us too, but after 30 hits in two days don't be surprised if the lowly Tigers whine for some lab tests.
Jesus Montero .... wait. Actually we should split this out. Man deserves a game ball.
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=== Ichiro ===
Giving our good friend from UNC-Chapel Hill a friendly nod and smile, lemme turn back to the rest of the bleachers and ask yer.
Have you ever seen Ichiro swing the bat better than this? Did he actually... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/12
11 Comments
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We don' really have a lineup thread, eh ... Just for fun, let's note that, after 60-80 plate appearances, the Mariners have 7 hitters performing as needed to, they have 3 hitters performing badly, and they have 3 hitters who haven't played much:
Bat
OPS+
Liddi
206
Ichiro
118
Saunders
113
Montero
94
Seager
91
Ackley
90
Ryan
88
Figgins
71
Smoak
54
Olivo
7
Jaso*
168
Wells* (only 20 PA)
126
Kawasaki*
17
The above numbers are misleadingly low; the M's BABIP-LD is still about 50, rather than 100. But they're getting closer.
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Q. Do the above numbers fairly group these... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/25/12
8 Comments
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The debate rages on Olivo as Team Captain (TM). From where I sit, twenty rows up in the third deck, the debate has evolved in three weeks.
The SSI position in March was that, as he pushed this boat away from the dock, Sgt. Wedge had a reasonable case to make that Ryan and Olivo were going to provide steadiness to the sail.
We don't sez it's the correct call. We sez, for all we know as shlubs on the couch eating chips, it could be a necessary price to pay for reversing the Wussy Disease. And the M's have had it, B'lee DAT.
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It's clear to most (or all) of us... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/12
26 Comments
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Paracorto converts a 6-3 assist off our Gameflow fungo:
"Then Alex Liddi took one of those little Mike Schmidt half-swings, and hit a ball that ended the game on the spot."
You know I'm not a great fan of comparison with past players but I should admit you gave us an impressive picture right now. Am I dreaming ? Of course yes but the kid is just beginning to show what he could be. Give him more AB's, give him more AB's...
It would be dreaming for ANY player to aspire to be Mike Schmidt, who had the #16 WAR of all time. :- ) It would be dreaming to ask Evan Longoria to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/12
14 Comments
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From 4:05 to 7:06 PST on April 24th, 2012, Michael Saunders reproduced the player that ran amok in the Cactus League. Like all wise U.S. presidents when signing nuclear treaties, you trust but verify. Okay, we don't roll with the Kim family, so here y'go amig-O:
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=== First Double ===
ine, which in Safeco means he's at 108 wRC+. League average and then some: 8% extra, that is.
That despite the fact that his BABIP, .294, is badly lagging his line drive rate, .257. So Saunders has ALREADY been a 3.0 to 4.0 WAR player, theoretically, in the first 16 games of his new... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/12
6 Comments
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Q. What happened out there in the 8th today?
A. Two runs up, Wilhelmsen gave up a seeing-eye ground ball to Miguel Cabrera. Then Prince Fielder viciously turned around a 96 fastball for a line-drive single, two (plodding) runners on, nobody out.
Wilhelmsen, grinding, missed two curve balls to Delmon Young - one he yanked low and wide into the dirt, and the other missed badly. This is the 3rd batter, now, and Wilhelmsen wasn't yet in his groove. He did manage to scuffle a hard-hit fly ball out.
He got behind Peralta 2-0 ... tying runs on, now. He ain't tryin' to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/12
This is part B. Part A can be found here.
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(continued) Q. Where is he on the starter's rhythm spectrum?
A. Here, check this key aspect of his mechanics:
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He steps lightly. He carries his weight high, and loosely. He's not "running down the mound" (Orel Hersisher). He's smooth, not explosive.
You can see that for yourself, can't you?
There's every chance in the world this guy could be a Grade A starter. Check that: if he executed the pitches that he did on Avila, he WOULD BE a grade A starter.
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Q. How are Feliz, Bard, and Sale doing?
A. They're adjusting,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/24/12
11 Comments
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=== Chapter 1: M's take a 4-0 lead ===
The Mariners, coming off a brutal thrashing at home, must have enjoyed their TSA shakedowns. They came out on Tuesday afternoon cool, focused, and apparently on an 8-game winning streak.
Chone Figgins expertly worked a 6-pitch walk off Max Scherzer. Dustin Ackley hawked and spat squarely in BABIP's ugly face, knocking a medium-strength groundball back over second base. Jesus Montero grinned and knocked a medium-strength groundball between short and third.
In the third inning again the Mariners practically swaggered their way to a 4-0... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/12
20 Comments
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"Whereas I ain't that fast, here to there," said the Iceman, "my gig is ziggin' and zaggin'." If they're expecting a zig .... keep that zag comin' all day long bab-eh
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=== Top 12 Sunny Mariner Thoughts ===
History is full of young teams that looked like regurgitated sushi and sake in April and May. And who then transmogrified once they got their soy sauce together. Happens all the time. Probably it happens most the time. Every young team had a pivot point, it sez here.
In Ball Four, Jim Bouton was traded from the Pilots to the Astros "for THE Dooley Womack." He talked... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/22/12
6 Comments
... no matter WHAT cha d-d-d-da-dooooooo or saayyyyyyyy
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=== If you have an Ace and a Deuce ===
All you need is a Trey, a Cater, and a Cinque (yes, really). The Mariners even have the Sice, that being Erasmo.
It doesn't take Michelangelo to see the outline of the rotation sculpture through the jagged outlines of the marble block.
::: 4-minute jam:: Gotta have 'em... gimme somethin' now ... yeahhhhhhhhh? ..... a handful of 14K strikeout rates, that is.
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=== Bring It Own ===
Kyle Seager. 'nuff said.
Still at 30% line drives, no groundballs whatsoever, still swinging out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/21/12
12 Comments
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Q. What happened out there?
A. There are times in sports, when an average player has a great day.
Nate McMillan had 25 assists one night; Freddy Brown had 8 steals in one half once; Steve Blake threw out 14 assists in one quarter. Matt Flynn threw for 500 yards his last time out. I think Dan Doornik ran for 100 yards in a playoff game once.
Humber was an average pitcher, pitching great. He was at the very limits of his performance capabilities. Some guys score 40 points once; the difference is, Kobe Bryant does it 100 times.
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Q. What was the arsenal?
A. The game... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/21/12
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Cool to see Felix' changeup starting to get some pub. Here's a fine USSM article that quotes a scout talking about a "beast mode" for Felix based on his changeup, a pitch we've called a "dry spitball."
As we've discussed any number of times :- ) over the past couple of years, the key to Felix' change is that it BOTH drops more than other changeups, and also comes in much harder.
It's like the L shape of an allen wrench. Because it is shaped so differently than other changeups, I would agree with folks who classify it as something other than a changeup. It's shaped like a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/12
23 Comments
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=== Hisashi Iwakuma ===
Despite two or three weeks off, he took the field and looked like... well, like a Japanese WBC star.
In the first inning he pitched, he threw 14 pitches and six of them were the famed NPB gyroball, er, shuuto. I was flat-out having fun Hisashi-san throw that thing, fun like watching Drew Brees throw downfield, fun like watching Blake Griffin flash off the pick-and-roll for a poster dunk.
The White Sox couldn't foul that thing off with a cricket bat, and he was NOT throwing it like League throws his splitter; Iwakuma throws it in any count, and it... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/12
8 Comments
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=== Hector Noesi ===
G-Money has taken to providing postgames that echo my own observations with 96.37% consistency. Do you think he should be more worried, or me? Here is his own mini-postgame. This will apparently serve as the expanded version. You're a sports fan, so you're good with replays. Question is whether you want fourteen replays of Adam Dunn's home runs.
Montero called for the same stripped-down Max Scherzer style attack game that he did last time around. Fully 40 of 58 pitches were fastballs, and the rest* were changeups. Noesi demonstrated that, as of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/20/12
14 Comments
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In the American League in 2011, you could project a team's BABIP -- its batting average on balls in play, that is, its AVG on everything except HR's, BB's, and K's, i.e., its AVG on balls that fielders had a chance to make a play on -- by adding 100 points to its line drive percentage. The league hit 19.6% line drives, and its BABIP was .295.
Fielders get to 70% of balls hit into fair play. Think about it and you'll see why this figure couldn't possibly be 90% or 50%. The earth is 70% covered by water, and the baseball field is 70% covered by defensive players.
This .300... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/12
7 Comments
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=== You Pay a Price for Everything You Believe That Is Not True, Dept. ===
Famous James quote.
My elderly mom went to the specialist yesterday. The doctor is a brilliant man, wonderful man, trained in both Western and Eastern medicine. The only man with his particular qualifications. ... Mom has been losing weight, among other problems, which kind of ruins the introduction, but don't stress for us over that part. Nothing out of the ordinary going on.
Anyway, Super-Surgeon tells my mom smilingly and firmly, you start eating fatty foods. Tuna in oil, ice cream,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/12
10 Comments
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=== 30,000 Foot View ===
The story of the game wasn't League's blown save. Tell ya something: 97 MPH is serious cheese from a sidearm pitcher. Brandon League can close my ballgames.
Story was that the Mariners should have scored more than one run. By "should have," we don't mean that they blundered away the game with bonehead plays. By "should have," we mean that more balls should have missed fielders.
If games were scored by average MPH off the bat, the M's would have again cruised. The bottom of the 4th was one such. Dustin Ackley doubled sharply, and moved to 3B on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/12
8 Comments
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Q. What is Josh Tomlin's game, and how does it intersect with the Mariners' hitting style?
A. He is the most aggressive starting pitcher, stuff-for-stuff, in the major leagues. On paper, he's way TOO aggressive.
He led the major leagues in fewest walks per inning last year. Decisively. That despite the fact his stuff is marginal, with a capital M. Here it is, hit it. They do, a lot of the time.
The M's say that they do two things: (2) lay off pitches they don't want, and (1) attack certain pitches they do want. The emphasis tonight is entirely on #1. Time for the M... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/19/12
6 Comments
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=== 38 Consecutive Strikes for Bartolo Colon ===
Bartolo Colon went into the 5th inning Wednesday with a comfortable 3-0 lead on the Angels. He didn't think they could do anything much with his fastball, and he closed the game out with a sneer. From the 5th to the 8th inning, he fired 38 consecutive strikes. By the time he was done, the A's were up 4-0 and the game was over.
In one annual softcover put out by Baseball Prospectus, Jim Bowden told Gary Huckabay that he didn't think much of sabermetricians "because there isn't a dime's worth of difference between you guys. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/12
16 Comments
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=== Gameflow ===
On Tuesday, our hero Spaceman Spiff had gotten gutkicked by Susie. On Wednesday, still green about the gills, the question was whether they'd be hanging indoors with Hobbes, having lost all interest in the outside world.
Anybody have any opinions as to whether the 2005-11 Mariners might possibly have been hung over whatsoever? Just to cherrypick one low-hanging cluster of losses, consider April 17th, 2006. The M's were 6 and 7, and had just lost a tough game. In game 14, Eddie Guardado blew an agonizing save, blowing a sure win against the Red Sox. Two... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/12
7 Comments
=== Figgins ===
Is cutting his zone nice and tight, is taking good swings, and .... the reason his production is not too swift? He gets no walks. Chone Figgins with an 0.33 EYE can't succeed, period. No version of Chone Figgins, such as Brett Butler or Luis Polonia, can succeed with an 0.33 EYE.
Of course, the 0.33 EYE goes up when Figgins starts hurting pitchers. He started hurting pitchers tonight. In this chapter of the story, Figgins has to do his damage with doubles, triples, and homers. If there's another chapter, if, then that one will include some BB knights and paladins... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/18/12
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=== Tuesday Postscript ===
This article is exactly right, word for word, not that SSI readers questioned Wedge on this particular point. Sometimes things just happen too quick for a manager to get a reliever into the game in time. That was the way in the Millwood tragedy.
The better question is why Kevin Millwood threw SO many pitches that were SO terrible. If he'd just thrown random bad pitches, then some batters would have hit some non-line-drives. Baseball doesn't work so that you get a .900 BABIP and 7 runs in one inning.
But Kevin Millwood threw 9,000... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/12
2 Comments
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Malcontent sez,
I know Sunday you were saying the swing was coming apart, in at least that one at bat you say he looked good. Do you feel he looked good in every AB? He also had that Deep Fly to Center that died 5 feet short of retying the game as well.
Tuesday night, he hit the ball very well three times. On the first one, it looked to me like he lowered his CG, kept his front knee in and his intentionality more up the middle.
Every swing he took after that, that I saw anyway, he flew open again, keying the swing with his front hip, "floating" his weight, and hooking... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/12
8 Comments
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=== Best Thing About This Conversation ===
Is that you only have to have it once. James Madison to King George, A.D. 1776.
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The M's chances to win, as Millwood took the mound for the top of the 5th, were 98.7%. Eleven batters later, the chances were 50-50 on the spreadsheet, and 20-80 in real life.
I felt bad for Millwood; if Ryan turns that DP then we are just flat --- > not talking about any of this. How many times has Jason Vargas had a DP turned behind him [but in the Phantom Alternate Universe his SS botched it and he went on to give up 4, 5, 7... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/12
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=== Catching* ===
As Millwood threw, I wondered about the framing again. But check this little baby. The ump was actually trying to bail Millwood out. And when Furbush entered the game, it's funny how Montero's pitch framing suddenly looked so much better ...
Montero weirdly had three pitches bang off his glove, no bases gained or lost. Dan Wilson thought highly of Montero's feet behind the plate: "that pitch bounced way in front of the plate, real tough to block, but Jesus was all over it." And like that.
The 3rd SB attempt on Montero, and the third SB that wasn't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/17/12
14 Comments
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=== Future's So Bright We Gotta Wear Shades, Dept. ===
M's right now are tied for the wild card. :- )
There's a thought floating that the 5 wins against the A's don't count. You think they'd have counted if the Mariners lost them? Suppose the M's were 3-and-8 right now. Would that be taken as indicative of anything? So why doesn't a strong 6-5 record indicate anything?
No, it says here that the Mariners have played mondo tough the first 11 games. In 9 of those 11 games, they've faced top-of-the-rotation starting pitchers. (Colon is real strong in the first half, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/12
14 Comments
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Q. Does SSI sign off on Sgt. Wedge's level of emphasis on personalities?
A. It does, yes, in the grand scheme. Assuming that SSI's signoff meant anything, which it does not.
Not to put too fine a point on it, we see the very most un-athletic sabermetricians scoffing at Wedge's style of "wartime leadership." It is very bad form for the head of the math club, himself sitting on the couch with a Slurpee in ease and comfort, to tell the UFC martial arts guys that the pre-fight staredown doesn't mean anything. And he can prove it mathematically. If you dunno why he can't... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/16/12
4 Comments
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Q. What's the overall grade, after two games?
A. That Montero is far better than the fans told us he was, that he's easily as good as the Yankees and Mariners told us he was.
Guess here -- it's just a guess -- is that Wedge probably feels the same. We hold out a lot of hope that Wedge merely needed to see what he has in fact seen, and that now, after the pleasant surprise, he's going to start expanding Montero's catching role. If so, great, and we fans have no complaints whatsoever.
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Q. If SSI were to argue AGAINST Montero catching, what would it argue?
A. That... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/12
30 Comments
Room 1408 is a psychological horror film, based on the book of the same name by Stephen King. Batter #28 is a psychological torture implement, designed ingeniously by Craig Wright, Jay-Z, and Sgt. Wedge to break the heart and mind of Dr. Detecto.
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=== And Take That With You ===
I thought that Blake Beavan actually executed his pitches better on Sunday than he did when he locked down the Rangers. Fastball after fastball hit the batter's cold zone, he threw 67 of 98 strikes, his overhand curve bit hard, and he handed the ball to the setup man.
Oddly, the A's did not react to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/15/12
27 Comments
Ichiro's relief at finally being caught by the howling mob, toward the end of the M's 513-run season? Nah, he's just getting kaizen service at the Nippon TowerMall Nike shop
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=== Pitch of the Game ===
Bottom of the 5th, and the A's have just come back to tie it 3-3. John sez to me, sure would be nice to answer immediately. That's what the Rangers would do...
Ryan flies out. Figgins walks on four pitches. Dustin Ackley gets on base, courtesy that 60-foot backhand "flip" by a feebleminded Jemile Weeks. Two on, one out, your #3 hitter up.
Ichiro takes a fastball for an 0-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/12
2 Comments
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Q. Was Noesi really that good?
A. Good, fo sho, though not shutout good. In the second, Casper Wells rented a jet ski and ran down a thunderbolt from Seth Smith. I got your +10 runs LF glove right here, babe. That play was sweeeeeeet.
Two or three other balls were hit hard and deep. The A's could have gotten 2, maybe 3 runs with a bit of luck. Let's not sell the start as Pineda-like.
On the other hand, c'mon. Noesi was ahead in the count all day, jammed them at will, was totally in control.
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Noesi has a Death Valley-deep 29% grounder rate after two... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/12
Little easier to win when your catcher has an appetite for destruction?!
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Q. How good is Noesi, or not, for 2012? Make up yer mind.
A. Cut me some slack, Jack. As we said in this offseason series, Noesi is a moving target. He's moving from the pen to the rotation. From injured to not. He's moving from the minors to the majors. His K/BB/HR profile is changing. His changeup is different every start. His slider is. Nobody knows how good he is. Still don't.
Noesi's upside is to be Matt Garza: a 93 fastball with three solid offspeed pitches. Last week, we pointed out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/14/12
4 Comments
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G-Moneyball, in this profound article, looks at the 2009-11 drafts and extracts an essential piece of information. That the current Mariners organization puts a thumb on the scale -- a huge 2-foot foam rubber thumb -- for ballplayers who like to play ball. Don't all ballplayers like baseball? ... some more than others, pokey.
This Grand Theme you mention G ... taking athletes that love the game they play ... this is a Theme that comes up again and again in all sports, especially in reaction to a 5-year period of corruption, a period in which a sports org loses and the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/12/12
2 Comments
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=== Tale of the Tape ===
In the four games at Texas, we saw what, 300 or so at-bats and over a thousand pitches. Bill James points out that each pitch is worth like $10,000. In the course of those 1,000 - 1,200 pitch events, we got a good look at things.
Jus' the fa'ax, ma'am:
Hits
TB
BB/K
Hits
TB
BB/k
Sea G1
11
13
4/7
Tex G1
12
24
5/7
G2
4
4
2/5
G2
7
10
1/4
G3
11
18
0/10
G3
8
16
3/4
G4
7
13
0/9
G4
9
14
1/6
TOTAL
33
48
6/31
TOTAL
36
64
8/21
The hits and walks were about the same, but the M's had only 7.5 bases for each 10 that the Rangers had. Why? Because the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/12
5 Comments
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=== Crawling Out of the Coffin Dept. ===
John Jaso's desperate pleas for a bat finally became too much for Eric Wedge to take any longer. Skip rolled his eyes and sighed. He laid a stick of hickory down on the dirt nearby, chuckling to see whether Jaso would find it.
He did. Creepily inspired, Jaso went on to accomplish the impossible on Wednesday night. No, we're not referring to his getting into the lineup.
In the 8th inning, on a 3-2 count, Alexi Ogando reached behind his ear and threw the kind of high-spin, located 95-MPH fastball that Michael Pineda deployed to... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/12
9 Comments
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Q. How did Millwood do it?
A. With guts and guile, knowledge of the hitters. With a rawhide-leather elbow ligament that can still cut the fastball gloveside after 37 years (counting from the first time he chucked a rubber ducky back out of his crib). And with a daring game plan to take the Rangers up in the strike zone, tempting them to go after pitches juuuuuuust a little too high to get on top of.
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Q. He took the Rangers UP in the zone? In Texas? A better strategy would be to flush his wallet down the toilet.
A. Especially Beltre, but really all (or most) of them... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/11/12
11 Comments
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Terry McDermott sez,
Watched the game, looked at the charts, at the f/x data and have no idea how Bleavan does it. His fastball isn't actually straight - it has a bit more than average armside movement - but, sheesh, it ain't that great. And hitters sitting red were BEHIND?
He must get some gain from his size - the guy is a beast of a man. He appears to have little deception but gains time from his size. So maybe that marks up his velocity a click or two, in which case you're looking at a located 94. Plenty of very good MLB pitchers have made a career with less.
I guess... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/12
6 Comments
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=== Pre-Game ===
Lemme keep it short and sweet so that my bleacher bum's road rage -- inflamed by the train-wrecked rally in the 7th -- won't get all over yer :- /
The good news: The M's are still 3-3, .500. The lineup and Blake Beavan look good. So does Capt. Insano. SSI had three questions before the game:
Would the new-look hitters give Neftali Feliz any tougher a time?
Would Blake Beavan avoid mistakes and be solid?
Would Blake Beavan induce swings out in front, showing offspeed arm action, and leap a plateau?
That's what I was watchin' for. The answers... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/12
32 Comments
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=== Sour Puss, Dept. ===
Seventh inning, 1-0 pitcher's duel, but the Mariners do get two baserunners. Filthy right hand pitcher on the mound. Right hand pitcher, Koji Uehara, in the bullpen.
Miguel Olivo is up. The stats say this: he's 3-for-23, all hits being three scratch singles. He has 0 walks and 5 strikeouts on the year. The scout's eye says this: he is swinging lousy.
John Jaso is the left hand hitter on the bench (along with RH Casper Wells, RH Brendan Ryan and RH Alex Liddi). In the 8th and 9th will come the Rangers' awesome setup-closer combo. Here in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/10/12
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You can log on to BJOL here. You can subscribe, super cheap, here, and ax your own inane questions. (If anybody's actually doing that, I'd be interested to hear about it.)
My idea of a win-win scenario is to poach a few of his insights, but then to deploy them to his advantage as well as ours. Hey, it's what I'd want done if the roles were reversed. :- )
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Hey Bill - You've said that "we do not have near-perfect measurements of baseball players. To assume that we do is foolish." Couldn't agree more.
How about the issue of "Why An Active Player Had an UP or... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/12
10 Comments
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If I did not fear involuntary incarceration, I would terminate your life functions by applying sufficient force to your cranium to cause its collapse. So just tell me what's goin' on in Jackson, doc.
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=== Gameflow ===
In the top of the first, Yu Darvish was nervous and wild. You could see he had great stuff -- he's liable to finish with a top-10 fastball -- but he fell behind constantly.
The Mariners' new-look offense took full advantage. They accepted the invitations on every 3-1 count, and they whipped the bats through the strike zone like the 1998 Yankees. Sharp line... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/09/12
11 Comments
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Don't step into the Rangers' house unless you're ready to dodge a few of the locals.
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=== Lesson Learned #4 ===
GS-24? Lesson learned is simple. You know what to do, Mr. Security Guard.
... Wedge has used him gingerly, and brought him into a zero-leverage spot this time.
85.8 MPH on the fastball, and he doesn't throw the slider because it's really just a 75 cut fastball now. Seen enough? Supposing that Anthony Vasquez came to camp and executed exactly these pitches?
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=== Lesson Learned #5 ===
Erasmo is ready to be a plus starter in the American League, starting on... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/12
12 Comments
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Q. Question was whether a #3 Ichiro would tighten his strike zone and be more effective. How's that workin' out for yer?
A. "It's not enough to be a great player. You must also play great." - Bobby Fischer
When it's garbage time, Ichiro plays like it's garbage time. Last half hour in the gym, three hours in, dudes are just hanging at half court picking cherries.
When Ichiro is playing in meaningless baseball games, -25 games out of first, with guys hitting .179 ahead of him in the lineup, Ichiro goes up and flails away for hits. This approach produces worse stats... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/12
8 Comments
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Sandy sez,
How common is a 1.6 walk rate, (without a deadly HR rate, of course)?
My perception of how minor league pitcher *stats* are judged is ... plenty of guys run 7-8 K/9 rates and get a shrug. But, if a pitcher fans 9 per game, he's suddenly a hot prospect, (often even if accompanied by high HR or walk rates).
A "good" walk rate is 3.2. We aren't talking a 25% increase. We're talking a 50% increase. But, even by raw numbers, you move from 7 to 9 Ks and you seriously change perception. You move from 3.6 to 1.6 walks ... and the reaction to the STAT is often a yawn.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/08/12
18 Comments
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Q. Who are we talking about here?
A. We're talking about Andrew Carraway.
We listed him as a AAA pitcher with a 1.5 walk, 7 strikeout profile, on which G politely corrected us. :- ) No, this time we knew that Carraway wasn't yet to Cheney. We're giving Carraway the benefit of assuming that he is going to run the same stats in AAA, which he probably will.
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Q. Thoughts on Carraway specifically?
A. Here's a video of him. He points the toe wrong and locks his front knee up, but aside from that, he's got a lot of real good things going on (as you'd expect from a 1.5... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/12
1 Comments
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=== Chone Figgins ===
Started the pile-on. Blistered three different base hits, on each of them showing the long followthru (and therefore acceleration) that Dr. D craves. The triple and double were pulled with authority, the single leaving a vapor trail up the middle. All were on 91'ish fastballs, mostly deep in counts.
Pitchers are going to challenge him until they buy in, and then come the walks. PRESUMING that Figgins continues to accelerate the bathead through 91 fastballs.
In fairness to Chone, he has now hit leadoff for the Seattle Mariners in five games (once... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/07/12
3 Comments
=== Dr Grumpy Shoots He Scooooooores ===
:: Rich Eisen :: After his last start, we offered a 7-part series on Felix' career transition. If you're here for the afterparty, you can read the first article here. Collect all 7.
In the first six articles, I guessed an 80% to 90% chance that Felix' 94 MPH was gone to stay, but also a 90% plus chance that he'd take the Pedro route to stardom, not the Valdes / Freddy route to meatballdom. Captain, please bring me my wine... We haven't had that spirit here since 1969.
But Dr Grumpy, our resident SSI/MC gastro surgeon, had a different inclination. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
18 Comments
Steve Delabar, shown left, was not greatly amused by kitty Cespedes' little strut.
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I/O: Here's the incident on video.
With two out in the 4th, and a 5-0 lead, Jason Vargas walked Jonny Gomes and then threw an 84 mph cut fastball to Terrell Owens, er, Yoenis Cespedes. His Bling-ship accepted the invitation, launching the ball 462 feet into the night.
CRUNCH: As you can see, Cespedes stood at home plate watching the flight of the ball ... no, actually, he goosenecked around the basketball court with his hand hanging up in there, giving Vargas an obvious "don't bring... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
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and you get the King tomorrow, feebs. Chew on dat
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=== Gameflow ===
In the first and second innings, Brandon McCarthy came out throwing sunflower seeds.
Dr. D watched his iPad in horror as B-Mac flung one 91-MPH dart after another Right. On. The. Black. In. Out. Just at the bottoms of the knees. Again, B-Mac had lots of help from the ump, who flounced his Pom Poms with gusto at every called strike.
Dr. D felt queasy. He prepared the postgame writeup in his head: don't panic, kiddies. Games 1-3 weren't all the Mariners' fault. "Yeah, yeah... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
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=== Steve Delabar ===
As the shepherd sayeth, so sayeth the flock.
So, who said this? "After League in the 9th and Wilhelmsen in the 8th, the roles in the bullpen are all up for grabs." If you guessed Eric Wedge, or Dr. D, or Jeane Dixon, you're right.
Delabar got the call in the 6th, because Yoenis Cespedes was up. He stomped in and said, Check Me Out. It was a statement game for him. Keeping his head quiet, coming right down the centerline, he ripped 94-95 fastballs high in the zone, and the A's swung as if the ball were 99. Later, Tom Wilhelmsen would bring 96,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
13 Comments
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=== Sizzlers ===
Unlike in Japan, Chone Figgins swung the bat with authority. On his line drive single, check his leading hip, his golfer's lean into the hitting area, and especially --- > the way his bat hits his back on the followthrough. When Dr. D saw the bat come through like that, he's like Tigress. THAT was pretty hard core.
The melodrama here is always about the level of enthusiasm. Drayer asked Figgins about the game after and he's all like, "I tolja, when I got that phone call that I was gonna lead off, what I was gonna do..."
So do it. :- / Tonight he... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
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Howard, I thought the Pineda, Fister, and Bedard deals had those 700 runs locked in for sure.
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The M's press box notes can be found here...
Jason Vargas has seen his offense get locked down in 11 of his last 16 starts, and 20 of his last 33. "Locked down" meaning that his team finished with 2, 1, or 0 runs. It's not at all unlikely tonight: Brandon McCarthy had the #1 FIP in the American League in 2011.
It turned out that the M's took Dr. D's advice and shed Kuo and Kelley. Remaining is George Sherrill and his $1.1M. The bullpen:
CONTENDER CLASS: closer... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/06/12
8 Comments
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So it took Spectator about four minutes to carve out his own M's blog-o-sphere niche.
In this "Game Action Recap," he provides interesting EXEC SUMMARY info for Tacoma, Jackson, High Desert, and Clinton. He also provides a supa-fresh feature "Spotlight Performer," being as Andrew Carraway was both the bush star of the night, and an emerging blog-o-sphere darling.
Me? I don't have quite enough interest in the minor leagues to get as booked-up as Spectator is. The top prospects sure, but when you're talking about comprehensive knowledge, I'd rather be info-tained. It... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/12
2 Comments
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Q. What are starting pitcher rankings?
A. Tennis, golf, and chess have objective "rankings." These are based on points for successes -- more points for bigger successes -- and the formulas are very well-considered.
In most rating systems, there is a chance to gain ground in head-to-head matchups; for example, Nick Faldo at one time had won three major tournaments in two years but still ranked very slightly behind Greg Norman, because Norman had finished ahead of Faldo in H2H, 19 times out of 30.
In chess, these rankings or "ratings" are cherished, and chessplayers have... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/12
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=== Game 1, Jason Vargas ===
Vargas started the year "ranked" 76th among 160 starting pitchers. After he smashed the A's lineup in Japan, his ranking heliumed to 67th.
Last August or so, Vargas was languishing a good bit below 80th, we're sure, but his rip-roaring Sept. 2011 and his start to this season have him nicely past the 50th percentile in MLB and threatening to encroach the top 50. This, by definition, would mean that he's performing as a #2 starting pitcher for a drone MLB team.
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In Japan, Vargas used a somewhat heavier fastball mix than he'd used... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/05/12
Picture in Webster's beside "Short-Arm"
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=== PROGNOSIS ===
If you looked at FIP, focusing on 2011 as people usually do, you'd conclude that Oakland's two starters (2.86 and 3.83) have a nice edge over Seattle's (3.13 and 4.09).
If you looked at Starting Pitcher Rankings, you would reverse that, and take Seattle's pitchers in a heartbeat: Oakland 78/160 and 102/160 vs. 8/160 and 67/160.
In any case it's clear that Starting Pitcher Rankings give us a fresh way to break down a weekend series. Bravo, Mr. James.
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The offenses are another question. In 2011, Oakland... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/03/12
2 Comments
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=== Specialist Referral, Dept. ===
Dr. Grumpy sez,
... will weight loss of pure body fat lead to a decrease in strength? In theory, no it should not. However, it is highly unlikely that the weight loss program you described (short period of time, with fasting etc) resulted in no loss of lean body mass. I suspect that this is the case with Felix also, although I have no idea what his program was.
It also may be possible, even likely, that while dieting/exercising, Felix just didn't feel great and maybe didn't do quite as much throwing specific preparation prior to ST.... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
7 Comments
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Carl Willis was asked about Felix' loss of velocity, which occurred at exactly the same time that he lost 20, 30 pounds, or whatever it was. Willis said that CC Sabathia always said that CC feels stronger when he's heavier.
Thin people :- ) will assume that there is nothing more to that statment, than CC trying to justify his overeating. I'm not a thin person myself, don't have a slight frame, so don't share the animosity - on the part of some thin people - towards carrying an extra 20 or 30 pounds. Personally have a very big frame, a big arm for QB and SS, and my... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
4 Comments
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Of all the hard-throwing young stars I've seen, I can think of only two who DID maintain their rookie velocity into their 30's -- say age 32 and up. Those two being Randy Johnson and Nolan Ryan. Of course, the Big Unit is a local hero, and he threw as hard at 35 as he did at 25, so that contributes to our misconceptions on the issue.
Think about it for a minute. How many 33-year-old starters have you ever seen, who clocked 96 MPH on pitch after pitch? None. Except Unit and Nolan Ryan. True, Justin Verlander is holding his velocity pretty well so far. But...
A couple of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
6 Comments
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Okay, so now we've gotten a visceral feel for the fact that it is normal, almost inescapable, for a great young pitcher to lose the great fastball.
Matt Cain is throwing free and easy, and the Giants obviously just CT-scanned his shoulder tissues six ways from Sunday. Have you seen a cat scan in the year 2012? Dr. G will (we think!) confirm. My mom just had this done, and they let me watch the bank of monitors. They can isolate vessels, small muscle fibers, ligaments, render anything they want in 3D and they can see EXACTLY what's going on in there -- better than if they... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
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Q. Supposing that we granted the premises offered so far. Okay, so Pedro-type pitchers typically drop to 90 MPH, and remain great. But why should that be?
A. There are three answers to this. First of all: what a 95 fastball does, for many pitchers, is buy them the years they need to solve the game.
You see it again and again. A John Smoltz or a Kevin Appier comes up with a tremendous fastball, and five years on, at 89 MPH they royally decimate hitters. What you are seeing is that during those five years, they figured out what can get them hurt, and what doesn't get them... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
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For his changeup, Felix uses a grip that we haven't seen other pitchers use. He seems to keep his index finger on the ball more, as opposed to making an "OK" sign with it. He places his middle and ring finger actually on the seams, and he seems to otherwise throw it just like a fastball.
So when Tom Wilhelmsen asked Felix to teach it to him, Felix said "I dunno man, I just throw it." Wilhelmsen probably figured that Felix was guarding secrets. My own guess would be that Felix actually does just throw it - that there's nothing much to explain. It just so happens that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
2 Comments
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It's popular to say that Felix' fastball will be fine because of its movement. You always hear that "Felix can't throw a straight pitch." Actually, F/X data shows that Felix' fastball moves just like other fastballs. The hot 4-seam fastball rises 7 inches vs. a vacuum, and fades armside 4 inches. The "sinking" 2-seam fastball "rises" 5 inches vs. vacuum, and fades armside 8 inches. All figures are almost exactly league average.
What Felix does have, is command, and more to the point, he has 1,400 innings worth of experience as to where not to throw it, to whom.
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=== 4... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 04/02/12
5 Comments
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=== Driving a Wedge Through The Issue, Dept. ===
No idea why you would pay any more attention to Eric Wedge's pronouncements than to mine, but if that's your persuasion, you're in luck. At noon yesterday, Mr. Wedge made some pointed comments toward the issue that we shticked on, the night before. Of course, it's conceivable that he was more answering Rick Rizzs' questions than ours.
Here's the rough recollection of the tape. But we (and anybody else who listened) can vouch for the fact that the spirit is faithful to the interview.
Rizzs: What did you think of Capps and... Read More