... Why does ANY pitcher need a signature pitch? What I mean is, to what end does a pitcher need a signature pitch? Is it to enshrine himself in the eyes of those who cannot see what it is that has worked for him so far in a minor league career?
Andrew Carraway has worked 358.2 innings in his minor league career so far. In those innings he has put together a K rate of 7.6/9 IP, and a walk rate of 1.7/9 IP. He is, and always has been, a flyball pitcher, and yet his HR/9 IP is 1.0, and it wouldn't be that high had he not worked a full season at High Desert in 2010.
Now then, all those pretty numbers tell us something about the kid, but they don't tell us the complete story. To have a grasp of the complete story you'd have to understand what is going on inside his head.
In talking to Andrew Carraway I've come away each and every time that there is a calculating mind at work in his head, and he is continuously measuring pitching situations to determine the best course of action. What pitch, how hard, and what location. You want a signature weapon? Well, there it is right there. Carraway is one of the more baseball savy guys you will ever have a chance to chat with.
Tell me, did/does Brandon Morrow have a signature pitch? What has that got him so far? Last year with Toronto he went 11-11 with a 4.72 ERA. Ya, he struckout a ton of guys and throws some wicked stuff, but the guy is a mental midget who just wants to "announce his presence with authority" with each pitch/batter/inning/game, and this has lead to a career (so far) filled with mediocrity.
Lonnie
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So it took Spectator about four minutes to carve out his own M's blog-o-sphere niche.
In this "Game Action Recap," he provides interesting EXEC SUMMARY info for Tacoma, Jackson, High Desert, and Clinton. He also provides a supa-fresh feature "Spotlight Performer," being as Andrew Carraway was both the bush star of the night, and an emerging blog-o-sphere darling.
Me? I don't have quite enough interest in the minor leagues to get as booked-up as Spectator is. The top prospects sure, but when you're talking about comprehensive knowledge, I'd rather be info-tained. It is better to receive, than to give. The scoop on the non-glamor spects, that is.
When bloggers can info-tain even us 24/7 kinda net abusers, thas' sayin somethin. And Spec seems to have G-Money in tow over there at Stalk. Used to be G and J beating the bushes. Now I guess it's G, J and S.
In the comments, G-Money swoons and suffers the vapors over the Jackson tsunami. If you didn't get it before, what is going on at AA, you will after reading this G-Money post at Stalk.
Keep stalkin those future M's, my man...
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=== Andrew Carraway ===
The featured 'spect of the day aims to be Jackson's answer to Erasmo Ramirez: a fourth SP behind the big three, and all the more dangerous for coming in stealth within the shadows.
I don't see Carraway in Baseball HQ's book, or in Jason Churchill's top 50 Mariner prospects.
Last year at AA Jackson, Carraway fanned 6.9 batters, walked 1.6, and allowed 0.6 homers. His previous seasons were more-or-less in line with those Fister-, Erasmo-type stats. For a 25-year-old to outsmart AA hitters, at a 6-7 strikeout rate, means absolutely zero to me.
As we've discussed before, SSI believes that these types of "polish and craftsmanship" minor leaguers need a signature weapon of some type to set them apart.
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With Fister, we thought his mechanics and control were genuinely different from 98% of other pitchers, and that he had an unusual feel for his changeup. As it turned out, his height was also a remarkable asset in view of his excellent mechanics.
Erasmo gets accused of having Jamie Moyer-like command, and at 93-95 mph, no less. SSI can certainly endorse the Fister-, Maddux-quality mechanics. And in spring training, I thought his changeup was a signature weapon as well. Erasmo knocks on the ML door boasting two special weapons: [command x velo] and the change.
Whether Carraway rolls out a feature ability to separate himself, SSI will wait and see. Maybe Carraway has Jered Weaver command or Brad Radke change speed, or something. But as a #4 starter in Jackson, we're sure he'll provide a blizzard of W's out of that slot.
Go Jax,
Dr D
Comments
:- )
Every single pitcher in AAA is absolutely excellent. It's not enough.
My template system has him classified as "dime a dozen" until such time as he gives some specific reason to believe that he's not Ken Cloude, or Garrett Olson, or Bob Wolcott, or 9,000 of those guys who were excellent in the minors.
Maybe he'll give that reason. And maybe my cornball opinion won't do a single thing to hold him back, if he actually does have an ML destiny. Ain't me making the calls here.
Everybody gets mad at the TV evangelist wacko for his opinion on who goes to heaven. Never occurs to anybody that the cornball TV shows won't actually affect anybody's destiny.
;- )
...who disagree with me. They have their opinions, and I try to understand their POV on why a player will or will not be successful. If they turn out to be right and it is for the reasons they declared, that's a good thing to keep in mind with future prospects.
Carraway would be a really good teammate for darts on beer night. If you haven't seen him throw, here's a clip from Lonnie (Capps included, no extra charge).
He's like mini-Doug-Fister. Shove the arm back, wheel it around and discharge with pinpoint accuracy. He even does the slight stepping-out-of-bed motion for his slidestep that just makes him MORE accurate with guys on base.
The problem with pinpoint-accurate / change speed guys: You can't tell until they get to the bigs just how accurate they are or how deceptive their change is. The difference between Halama and Moyer is thin. Halama has a no hitter AND a perfect game in the minors. He's that good.
Except he got to the bigs and wasn't that good. Of course, the thing that isn't explained about Halama in the stats is that he didn't like baseball. He just did it for the money. It was like being a deep sea fisherman or something: good cash for a distasteful lifestyle, and you can relax later with money in the bank. He made four and a half MILLION dollars doing something he didn't particularly care for. I'd do that too.
Carraway is a baseball rat. He's a good pitcher. As you said, all AAA pitchers are good. Will he be a good major leaguer? I dunno, but I suspect he'll he'll have several years in the bigs. He looks like pre-plateau-jump Fister to me. I like him better than Beavan.
The makeup of a man means something. Cloude was always laying blame off on other people. In that sense I understand why the Ms like Beavan: his attitude about being a starter is top notch. He lets all trouble roll off him like water off a duck's back. He's extraordinarily confident in himself and his abilities, even if his abilities to this outside observer seem to be very ordinary.
Will we have room for Carraway on our club? No idea. But "reliable long reliever" is a useful if fungible role. It's up to Carraway to shoulder his way onto the radar, and the roster, in much the same way Erasmo has so far.
You never know who's gonna turn out. Carraway has a better shot than many. I certainly wouldn't call him "not a prospect" as some have.
But on this team, with the arms we're collecting? He's probably gonna want to call up Fister and ask him about that plateau leap.
~G
A lot of times it's pretty much the difference. As with Jason Vargas?
Makeup is real, and it has gone on the scout's clipboard for 100 years. If Carraway's makeup is superior to the excellent pro makeup you see in guys like Luke French, Cesar Jimenez, Shawn Kelley, etc., then probably he will see considerable ring time in the circus.
It's asking a lot, to ask for makeup superior to that of other AAA/ML Fringe guys, no?
One of the reasons I listen to a lot of minor league games is to hear the reports on how the pitcher is reacting, and to watch how their managers treat them.
Carraway was hit around the park in High Desert in 2010, as many pitchers can be in that league and park. My questions coming out of it were, "how would he handle that experience" as well as "is his deception game good enough to get out AA hitters?" AA is the windshield that inadequate changeups splatter on.
The Mariners weren't sure either - Carraway started the year in the pen. After a struggle by another starter and a manager's first-hand look at the kid, he wound up in the rotation and made an All-Star team. And he was the Opening Day starter this year.
I was surprised to see him back in AA. We don't have a lot of good starters in AAA. Which causes me to wonder: why would they do that? He had a full season in AA and was completely untroubled by it.
Do you do it to introduce him to the momentum and clubhouse of a bunch of future All-Stars that he endeavors to be a part of instead of sending him to a current waystation of time-killers?
I think makeup matters in those choices, and that giving him the ball on the first day knowing what's stacked up behind him in the rotation and ahead of him in line for promotion is an interesting test of a man's character. Carraway passed. I expect him to continue to pass.
Carraway is not a blue-chip prospect. Neither was Fister, nor Vargas. Since he has little trade value at this point I hope to see him stick around, because we're one UCL issue from needing a viable starter untroubled by either expectations or dismissal.
Carraway's exactly the sort of backup plan I want around in case one of our unstoppable talents runs into the same wall that Meche did early in his career.
~G
How common is a 1.6 walk rate, (without a deadly HR rate, of course)?
My perception of how minor league pitcher *stats* are judged is ... plenty of guys run 7-8 K/9 rates and get a shrug. But, if a pitcher fans 9 per game, he's suddenly a hot prospect, (often even if accompanied by high HR or walk rates).
A "good" walk rate is 3.2. We aren't talking a 25% increase. We're talking a 50% increase. But, even by raw numbers, you move from 7 to 9 Ks and you seriously change perception. You move from 3.6 to 1.6 walks ... and the reaction to the STAT is often a yawn.
Honestly, I think Morrow and Fister are a wonderful off-set pair to consider. Morrow continues to run monster K-rates ... but also continues to struggle to pull the pieces together and keep them there. Fister, with vastly inferior "stuff", comes up and seems to have solved the game overnight.
But ultimately, I don't know the ratio of "failed" sub-2 walk guys versus "failed" 9+ K guys ... that actually got a fair shot in the majors. And this is where I really wonder. I believe teh scouts as a group have always had a bias toward the "stuff". A guy like Ryan or Morrow is going to get YEARS to try and put it all together. Guys like Fister or Saarloos ... if they stumble early, it's a quick trip to the pen ... or back to the minors.
And of course ... without a solid K-rate in the minors, most of these guys will never even get a September call-up. Watching Maddux show up Smoltz for a decade created a significant bias in me toward the cerebral guys with pin-point control over the guys with superior "stuff" that struggle with the concept that pitching is much, much more than just throwing.
We'll endeavor to reply shortly. :daps: