Carter Capps, Alexi Ogando, and Daniel Bard

 ..............

=== Driving a Wedge Through The Issue, Dept. ===

No idea why you would pay any more attention to Eric Wedge's pronouncements than to mine, but if that's your persuasion, you're in luck.  At noon yesterday, Mr. Wedge made some pointed comments toward the issue that we shticked on, the night before.  Of course, it's conceivable that he was more answering Rick Rizzs' questions than ours. 

Here's the rough recollection of the tape.  But we (and anybody else who listened) can vouch for the fact that the spirit is faithful to the interview.

Rizzs:  What did you think of Capps and Pryor?  Wow, Capps at 98-99 and Pryor at 96.

Wedge:  We had actually sent an e-mail over from Japan telling them to get those two guys ready.  We'd heard a lot about these two guys and wanted to see them for ourselves, well actually, we'd seen Pryor but wanted to see Capps.  They acquitted themselves very well.

Obviously they're young guys, Capps drafted last year, Pryor the year before.  But they're going to be Mariners sooner rather than later.

The guys in the locker room right now, they're going to have to produce and contribute, or these young guys are going to be pressing for their jobs.

Skip-O-Vision translation:  Sherrill and Kelley and Iwakuma, I gotta give them a fair chance to get blasted first.  It's MLB(TM) code that there are no takebacks, once you tell a guy he's going North.  But as soon as they are -- blasted, that is -- we reserve the right to swap them out for players who can throw baseballs that are hard to hit.  

.

=== Cape Cod League ===

Bat571 points out that Capps relieved in the Cape Cod League which immediately follows the draft.  Shows you how much I pay attention to ammy baseball.  Then Capps went to the Midwest League, and the Mariners started him four games.

This is material, not trivial, since it indicates that Capps may still be a starter in the M's eyes.  But don't get carried away:  Wedge ordered Capps up to the Padres ballgame in order to have him pitch one max-effort 8th inning.

It's unclear what the Mariners themselves think about it.

.

=== SP vs RP Mechanics ===

Moe challenged me, in a fair and friendly manner, to document the statement that Capps has an inverted W.  The angles aren't good, but here's one capture:

f he threw 95-99 mph and had one offspeed pitch, would be a threat to Ogando the majors.  This year.

If you wanted to give Capps a shot at the Alexi Ogando scenario, you could move Blake Beavan to the bullpen.  Beavan is much improved.  Then he and Erasmo could back up Capt. Insano and SrFrBoi.  That is what I'd do, if this were Strat-O-Matic.

....................

And yet, the Mariners HAVE five (5) star young starters - Felix, Erasmo (who is CERTAINLY a starter), Paxton, Hultzen, and Taijuan.  For exactly this reason, Alexi Ogando is in the bullpen in 2012 -- after having the #15 WAR in the American League last season.  It's a combination of the fact that the Rangers have 5 starters that they love, and the fact that Ogando is the guy whose motion is suspect.  Or if not suspect, certainly not a classic starter's motion.

Again:  it's not a 2-dimensional problem, not as easy to solve as a beginner Sudoku puzzle.  The Red Sox are very well aware that Daniel Bard has a moderate Inverted W, and they're deliberately converting him to the rotation.  Simple solutions are for board games, not for real life.

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  • 95.1 - Alexi Ogando's ML-leading velocity, SP's, 2011
  • 97.9 - Aroldis Chapman's* ML-leading velocity, RP's, 2011 (*Henry Rodriguez)
  • 97.9 - Carter Capps' velocity vs Padres

There were six relievers in the majors who averaged 97 MPH, including Chapman, and Jordan Walden, and Daniel Bard.

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=== Can you RP now, and SP later? ===

Hey, that Daniel Bard guy.  Did his being in the bullpen for a few years, prevent him from joining the rotation later on?

The 2009-10 Daniel Bard gives you a visual, as to what the M's might get from Carter Capps this year and next.  11 K, 4 BB, and a lot of fun.

A super-scary "stealth" weapon like that transforms the entire personality of a bullpen, a pitching staff, and a ballclub.  Bard didn't start out as the setup guy.  He just started out as a guy below the radar, who when he came in, you went, aaaaaaah, no.  Noooo.

There are many reasonable ways to deploy Carter Capps.  On my team he'd be in the 7th inning now, and if anything happened to my Big Five in, say, 2013, I would convert him to the rotation over the course of a winter.

Guarantee you.  Daniel Bard now, and back to the rotation if anything happened to one of my glamor boys.  Dee-lish.

Comments

1
Lonnie of MC's picture

Carter Capps in the Cape Cod League
Having just been drafted fairly high while coming out of a small school, Capps already knew that the Mariners were very high on him. What Capps wanted to do is maximize his value and get a big signing bonus. To do this, Capps went to the Cape Cod League to showcase himself to the Mariners. Now, this was actually a very risky move on Capps part since things could have possibly gone the other direction and exposed his weaknesses. That didn't happen. Capps took his team (interestingly, the Harwich Mariners) to the playoffs and started the opening game. He was absolutely filthy and got not just the W, but a $200K signing bonus from the M's.
The dreaded inverted "W"
I fully understand why it is that this condition is such a concern. Going from even a minor inverted 'W' to an over the top throw HAS to put a ton of torque on the shoulder. Carter Capps though does not have to worry about his slight inverted 'W' condition for a big reason. Capps doesn't throw over the top. Look closely at the video that I pushed up and you should notice that his entire body drops way down when he throws, and in the process he essentially lowers his shoulder down to the level of his throwing hand, eliminating the torque condition almost completely.
Capps' mechanics is 180 degrees out from the "throw downhill" mentality. For a guy who is 6'6", Capps throws more like a guy who is 6'0", and in the process the ball seems to explode out of his hand and gets on the batter much quicker. Add to that the velocity that he is able to produce and you have what saw a couple of nights ago.
This whole inverted 'W' conundrum is a non-starter, IMHO, when trying to determine whether Capps can be in a rotation or work out of the bullpen.
Starting Capps in the bullpen with the Mariners in April
There is a big problem with this idea and it has nothing to do with Capps' ability to get major league pitchers out. I wrote in the other Capps thread that I've been told that the first year or so the players get little baseball instruction, but a ton of what and how to handle things as a professional. A lot of guys wash out just because they can't handle the life of a pro. I'm not saying that Capps needs the time to acclimate, but I just want to point out that there is often more than one reason for promoting or not promoting a player.
Also, I got that video of Carson Smith up. Take a look at him and try to tell me that he shouldn't go directly to the bullpen (where he would dominate nearly as much as Capps would).
http://youtu.be/40gOcLHwPiE
Lonnie

2

Seems to me his arm motion takes off ahead of his body, like hes throwing more with his arm, and not using his bodies momentum to come down the mound with him-which would make me wonder how long that could last?

3

Personally don't have a very good eye for arm timing.  But certainly am not impressed with the connection between his lower body and his upper body.  He's all arm as he begins to accelerate the ball.
That's just one variable among 100, of course.  Alexi Ogando doesn't have good timing.  Pineda doesn't.   Am not sure how good Pedro Martinez' was before he was 30.
The guy does hit 99 mph.  :- )  But as we're noodlin' here, I personally do wonder about his handling a starter's workload, especially if he needs 97 mph in the rotation.

5

"Handling things as a professional" is a Grand Theme of Capt Jack's.  No doubt in my mind that Capps' promotion to Safeco, in April, was rejected out of hand for precisely that reason.
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You could certainly be right about the mechanics being a non-issue for him, SP vs RP.  
I'd thought that Pineda was a likely exception to the Inverted W fad, because he comes sidearm.  But to be 100% fair, here we are and his shoulder is hurting, in EXACTLY the place that the W is supposed to stress it.
...............
Awesome story about Capps scoring (an extra?) $200K in the Cape Cod league.  

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