Lucas Luetge's Meal Ticket

For nine hundred YEARS have *I* not brushed my teeth ....

 ...............

In March, Luke made zero sense to SSI, because 87 MPH lefthanders don't pitch out of the pen.  For nine hundred years has Jay-Z trained jedi, and he kept his own counsel as to which Rule 5 padawan learners he would keep.  

As it turned out, Luetge's fastball was not 87 MPH; it's a good 89-90 and with his motion, from the left side, it's plenty quick.  But the fastball matters not.  Judge Luke by his fastball do you?  Hmmmm?  Hm!  And well you should not.  For the slider is Luke's ally.

Per F/X, Luke's slider bites very well, an extra inch sideways and an extra two inches down.  But it's more the George Sherrill motion attached, the deception, the tight spin, the way it cuts across the zone to the outside black.  It's just a money pitch.

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=== Fastball as the Supplementary Pitch ===

Luetge threw 16 pitches on Thursday, of which 10 were sliders and 6 fastballs.  No curves.  That's no accident:  for the season, Luetge is 51% sliders, 40% fastballs and 9% curves.  That ratio is heading North rapidly, as the Mariners grok that Luetge is all about the slider.

There are a certain number of relievers in the big leagues who throw a breaking pitch the majority of the time.  They throw it on the first pitch, on 3-1, on everything.   Michael Wuertz has thrown 64% sliders since 2008.  Carlos Marmol can throw 95 MPH, but he throws the slider 55%, fastball 40%.  Luke Gregerson.  Here is a full table of guys who use sliders as their first pitches.

If a batter is looking offspeed, and gets it, supposedly you're in trouble -- therefore, you've got to use a breaking pitch as a "surprise" pitch, or so goes the dogma.  But Jamie Moyer explained why his curve and changeup were so effective that he could use them more than 50% of the time:

  1. MLB hitters are too embarrassed to sit offspeed and swing late on an 87 MPH fastball.  It emasculates them.  They will not do it.
  2. Some pitchers' sliders are so good that they can look slider, get slider, and still not hit it.  That is the way with Luetge.

Moyer is throwing 33% fastballs this year, with an ERA of 2.28.  He has pitched until age 50 because the fastball is the coin of the realm, and he trades in a foreign currency.  :- )

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=== Role ===

I figured that Luetge had no role with the M's now or later, but I was wrong.  Happily so.   As a slider-lefty arm out of the 'pen, with his poise and moxie, he's threatening to establish himself as a go-to lefty specialist.  That slider is a jedi lightsaber, and Luetge's swing-man SP capabilities are a nice bonus.  Besides that, I'm having a lot of fun watching the guy.  After two sliders, the fastball looks 97 MPH.

You can't stop Jay-Z, you can only hope to contain him.

Comments

2
ghost's picture

That will move our clutchiness score from 0.41 to like...1 or so. :D But I'll take it.
Saunders is a much better hitter this year...no question about it.

3

No idea about the mechanics, to my eye I see his weight sinking, but the patient/aggressive approach that Saunders has adopted, combined with the new found confidence, seem to make Saunders what he currently sits at, a .254/.343/.508 hitter. I'll take that guy in Center batting 6th forever. Sad to see Franklin Gutierrez with yet another nagging injury, but after tonight, Saunders might just be the permanent Center Fielder in Seattle.

4

after watching the big parts of the game (I worked for 99.5% of the game, the grand slam happened as I was walking in the door home), we were unimaginably lucky to have got to the 10th inning. After years of feeling like everything has broken against the Mariners, it's nice to see the M's get a couple go their way.

5
ghost's picture

We've been ridiculously unlucky all year this year...nice to get a break for once...sheesh. Romero's yet another ace pitcher and we battled him to a draw...which is pretty sweet. And then we got sloppy and let in that extra fifth run (grr...why are pitchers incapable of throwing the ball anywhere but home plate??) and I thought we were doomed.
This game have a playoff atmosphere to it...Blowers and Simms were both going on about how Wedge managed the game like it was game seven of the world series. He's starting to open up the bench...starting to believe in his relievers, etc. That's good to see.

6

Is what I envisioned when I said bring on 3 catchers, with Chone Figgins and Kyle Seager and Munenori Kawasaki and Casper Wells, the bench should be emptied down to one (in-case-of-emergency) guy in virtually every game, some players are better runners, some are better hitters and some are better defensively. Also, Wedge finally took advantage of his unequaled ability to call a LOOGY at any time. We have the ability to manage an AL team like an NL team, it's a tiny advantage, but for any chance to compete this year we need every one.

7

Doc, one name jumped out from the slider list, since he had come up on my charts as the most effective pitcher in all of baseball in 2011.  He did it by upping his slider percentage to 54%, and with an 89-mph fastball.
Check it out.
 

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