Picture in Webster's beside "Short-Arm"
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=== PROGNOSIS ===
If you looked at FIP, focusing on 2011 as people usually do, you'd conclude that Oakland's two starters (2.86 and 3.83) have a nice edge over Seattle's (3.13 and 4.09).
If you looked at Starting Pitcher Rankings, you would reverse that, and take Seattle's pitchers in a heartbeat: Oakland 78/160 and 102/160 vs. 8/160 and 67/160.
In any case it's clear that Starting Pitcher Rankings give us a fresh way to break down a weekend series. Bravo, Mr. James.
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The offenses are another question. In 2011, Oakland outscored the Mariners 645 to 556: almost a hundred runs. How much do you like the M's fresh wave of rookie hitters? You wind up with these picks, depending on your paradigms:
| M's offense = as in 2011 | M's offense = much improved | |
| SP's = 2011 FIP | OAK big | Oak slightly |
| SP's = James Rankings | Coin flip, or Oak slightly | SEA clearly |
If you plump for the lower-right quadrant, you see Oak and Sea as otherwise-balanced teams, except that there is a super-GM pitcher appearing in one of the two games, making the super-GM team the clear choice.
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=== D-O-V Scan ===
The M's are 4-0 in Jason Vargas' last four starts on grass fields. They're 4-1 the last five times that Vargas started a series. They're 4-1 the last five times that the oddsmakers expected a low-scoring ballgame, as they do this time. In Vargas' career he has 13 games on very long rest, with a normal ERA over the course of those 13, and that held true last year over his 3 starts.
Summary: Vargas has been hot, and he will probably pitch well on Friday. Not absolutely: probably.
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The A's have won 7 of their last 8 when favored, as they are now. They seem to be good in close games, as we saw in Japan. But the A's are 1-4 in McCarthy's last 5 series openers, as they were in Japan again. They're 0-4 in his last four starts against the AL West ...
Summary: McCarthy has been throwing great, but the A's have been very capable of losing close games for him.
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Michael Saunders used his 5-lb swing to smack out three hits in the last ST game, and Munenori Kawasaki (20-for-44) drew two comments from Wedge. (1) He's better than advertised! (2) He's a utility player who won't play much!
Saunders would be an electro-jolt for the whole lineup, and he is facing two VERY predictable fastball pitchers. This could take the edge off his tendency to get caught in between. Go Mickey.
You saw Ackley and Ichiro go nuts; other fastball hitters include Smoak and Seager. Justin Smoak's lefty swing can get greedy; in Japan it was beautifully controlled and he hit the ball hard up the middle and the other way. If he did that all through April, he'd hit 300/400/500 plus.
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In the Japan pre-series review, we noted that the umpire can be the ballgame about 10% of the time that the game is low-scoring. Sho 'nuff, the Colon game was decided, IMHO, by a huge zone for Bartolo Colon.
A couple of early runs could be the ballgame on Friday, and watch for those umpires this series. :- )
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BABVA,
Dr D
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