Liddi just got 20 more starts.
Gee, who would have thought he could be a weapon......oh...never mind.
Houston, we have a proplem. Right now problem #1 is Olivo. Montero catches, Liddi plays everyday (DH-ing a bunch...or let Smaok DH if he hts better there), and there you go.
Seager's playing. Ackley's playing. Smoak is going to play just so we can see what he's got (he will hit).
And Liddi must play.
As we've said, his downside is Mark Reynolds. That's 30 taters guys, in case you forgot.
Olivo has always been a big problem. I hope Wedge finally realized that last night.
Keep an eye on the lineup tonight. We'll see, assuming Smoak is ready to go.
The Schmidt and Bench swing comparison is very appropriate. Buhner, too. That abbreviated follow through can generate mucho pop.
Problem #2?
He's in LF. But I'll be satisfied for a (very) (short) bit with a solution to #1.
moe
................
Paracorto converts a 6-3 assist off our Gameflow fungo:
"Then Alex Liddi took one of those little Mike Schmidt half-swings, and hit a ball that ended the game on the spot."
You know I'm not a great fan of comparison with past players but I should admit you gave us an impressive picture right now. Am I dreaming ? Of course yes but the kid is just beginning to show what he could be. Give him more AB's, give him more AB's...
It would be dreaming for ANY player to aspire to be Mike Schmidt, who had the #16 WAR of all time. :- ) It would be dreaming to ask Evan Longoria to be Schmidt.
...........
But Liddi visually looks like Schmidt. And Schmidt was a dubious player until age 24; Big Blog would absolutely have considered the age 21-23 Mike Schmidt a fool's errand, for the same reasons they are scoffing at Liddi now. At age 23, Schmidt played 132 games in the National League and had a .196 batting average and huuuuuuuge strikeouts for the era.
Honestly, kids, it is naive to rule out any player, Trayvon or Liddi or Schmidt or anybody, based on strikeouts alone. Bill James just ran an article in which he pointed out that baseball in 1900-1925 was not yet fully major league .... one major indicator: the talent evaluation.
I think the quality of play continued to ascend very rapidly until about 1925. For one thing, it is absolutely amazing how many minor league organizations in that era (1900-1920) didn't know a baseball player from an opera singer.One minor league team released Walter Johnson. One minor league operation had Ty Cobb under contract for a month, and cut him. The New York Giants had Tris Speaker in spring training, and cut him. The Cleveland Indians had an option on Pete Alexander; Alexander had a huge year in the minors, and the Indians didn't pick up the option. These people didn't have a CLUE what they were doing--and because they didn't, many of the best players in baseball played out their careers in the minors, while players had substantial major league careers just basically because they were were in the right place at the right time. It wasn't until post-1925 that scouting and player evaluation was professional enough that you can be fairly confident that the best players will in the majors.Regarding baseball 1900 to 1925 as major league ball is troubling, and imperfect, and a compromise. But regarding 19th century baseball as major league baseball is just plain silly, but people do it all the time so they assume that there must be some basis for it, or they wouldn't all be doing it.
...........
Dunno whether it's 1-in-100, or what it is, against Liddi becoming an echo of Schmidt, but I would say that it is not yet ruled out. The things that would rule it out have not yet occurred.
Is Alex Liddi a future Mike Schmidt or Eddie Matthews? It would be unwarranted to even talk about it (but fun, maybe). Is he a quality MLB prospect? Of course he is.
Baseball is tough without home runs. How do you suppose Wedge can resist playing Liddi right now? :- )
Comments
should not exist if only they let play everybody into their natural position. I do not know how much time we'll to wait to see Ackley in LF, Seager at 2B, Liddi at 3B and Smoak at 1B, but I'm confident before the end of the season.
Actually, moving Ackley to the outfield is the rare moment where going to the easy side of the defensive spectrum makes the whole line-up better. Ackley to CF/LF/RF, Seager to 2B, Liddi to 3B, Montero catching, your DH is split between Wells and Carp, Carp also steals PT at 1B and in the outfield (the plethera of extra OF options allows Ichiro to take more days off) and Figgins is the back-up to Liddi and to Kawasaki/Ryan at short.
The offense would get better in 4 places and the defense would get better in 3 places.
... and it was me! After years of promoting Alex Liddi, I am justified in my belief in him. And, you have to know that a lot of it was belief because the numbers didn't always work in his favor. Still, what with watching his play over the years, and talking to his Dad (great guy, he even remembered me this year!), I am more convinced than ever that Liddi will one day be an everyday regular MLB player.
I don't post this as a way of showing how good I am at identifying good players, if I wanted to do that I would piggyback the Liddi story with my own long time belief and support in Erasmo Ramirez... :)
How much longer until peeps buy into Andrew Carraway?
Lonnie
Everyone seems sure that Ackley at 2nd is his "wrong" spot and it's "messing up the lineup." Carp outhit Ackley last year, and Dustin has tons more trade value than Carp as the #2 pick in the draft, so if they're playing the same position of LF why waste Dustin's trade potential? I'm sure somebody doesn't have the problem of people squeezing a future All-Star for his position and would love to play Ackley at 2nd.
Trade him.
Then everybody can play their "correct" positions and we won't have any worries. That works for all of us, right?
Liddi has enormous potential, he always has. If he's finally figured out how not to swing at stupid pitches, that will be huuuuuge for us. Or for someone, anyway.
Seager just keeps trending up. Carp WAS very good last year, we'll see if he can keep it up when he comes back from his separated shoulder. Wells has HR abilities, and Jaso is a decent hitter for a backup catcher. Montero's got the C/DH thing locked up.
Smoak still can't hit early in the year. That's an issue. Neither can Ackley, but Smoak's had twice as much time in the bigs.
If we need to replace Smoak internally, we have limited options available: Liddi, who conveniently doesn't have a position and can thump, or Catricala, who is not hitting like a 1B. We have ZERO useful first basemen in the minors. Or we could move Ackley over, since he played first in college, and clear up the jam that way.
Until we figure out what's up with Smoak at first and if he is the long-term man for that job there is no way I move Ackley anywhere. Can we get Liddi ABs between 1B/3B/DH? I would think so. Once Olivo and Figgins aren't getting significant at-bats any more that frees us up to be far more flexible with deploying the kids and still getting 400 ABs for Liddi and a couple hundred for Jaso.
But if we want to bet the farm that Liddi and Seager should be out there all the time at their "correct positions" then we need to trade either Smoak or Ackley - and Smoak's value is basically nil right now.
Re-distributing Ackley to a lesser glove position where he may not outhit Carp, or Catricala, or Wells, doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Because if Carp or Wells struggle then we just go get a vet outfielder and can them (or make em backups). We're not canning the 2nd overall pick in the draft without a lot of mileage.
Take a look at Alex Gordon in KC for an example. He got 3 years of mileage at his glove position (3B) and 4 unproductive years overall before a move to the outfield helped him produce at the plate.
Somebody would give us a productive LF right NOW in exchange for Ackley and his 6 remaining years at 2B. Why wait for Ackley to learn how to hit like a plus LF? If we don't want him there, then trade him and get me my veteran bat.
~G
He's getting it together slowely and looks much better than last year. Or are you saying that Liddi seems only to play when Smoak is hurt? I think Smoak in the line-up shouldn't preclume Liddi getting PT...it should be as the DH for now, though, with Montero getting more C ABs. Which is what I *think* you're also saying...just checking to make sure. :)
Steven Proscia (currently at High Desert) is a sleeper prospect at first, (since his glove is fast moving him that way).
Waaaay too early to know anything for sure ... and High Desert screws up evals ... but the kid has 17 HRs in his first 60 games, (264 PAs). Still lots of work ... but he flashed more raw power than Catricala did last year.
If there is a 1B on the farm ... it's probably Proscia ... but still 2-3 years away.
Whatever logjam there is, is caused by Olivo, Figgins and Ichiro playing every day. That can be solved without messing with the long-range Ackley@2b plan.
Besides, we don't need to be moving all-around hitters from the middle to the corners. We need a couple of sluggers at the corners. Swapping from Ackley-middle/Seager-corner to Ackley-corner/Seager-middle does nothing in that regard.
If Smoak, Carp and Liddi are all productive sluggers at the same time (theoretical), then figure how to keep all three in the lineup with Ackley and Seager. At that point, maybe Ichiro gets the Peyton Manning treatment. I think that's more likely than moving Ackley.
***
Also, the guy who suggested Ackley at 2b was Ackley's college coach -- who was also Seager's college coach. In fact, Seager was his 2b.
He didn't say "better not move Dusty to second, 'cause my man Kyle's gonna lock that spot down before you know it." He was all-in on Ackley@2b, with the unspoken assumption that everyone else had, that Seager was a utility guy. FWIW.
Ackley is our 2B. Moving him to LF isn't much of an answer with Carp, Trayvon, Vinnie et al in the pipeline.
Actually a Seager move there might make more sense. But I don't think you'll see that
We have room for Liddi right now. 100 DH games, 10 3B games, 10 1B games....or something like that.
Carp will hit. LF him...exnay Figgins.
Guti? Never did like him.
I thought Wells was the better CF option than Saunders, because I thought Saunders was too broke to fix. He's showing signs. But we need to find some time for Wells to see what he is. I think he can play. Give him LF until Carp is ready. Then he becomes our Art Shamsky.
Move on.
moe
Drayer says it's already being discussed.
I'm watching Proscia with interest, but like you say, 2-3 years away IF he works out. His 4 BB / 33 K last year did not inspire confidence, but he's better this year - probably because he's scaring the bajeezus out of Cal League pitchers.
BTW: Brad Miller, our SS/2B, is out-slugging Proscia in the Desert. Maybe Miller should play first...
~G
New York Yankees pitcher Michael Pineda will miss the entire 2012 season due to a right shoulder anterior labral tear.
Like I said when he explained where the pain was - done-zer.
The Yankees better hope he doesn't have a Wood/Prior career ahead after this first surgery.
And we - we snuck Montero and Noesi out of NY for a really good A-Ball pitcher and a surgery patient.
Well done, Jack. No one will ever deal for another one of your pitchers again after a freaky first year - but that's seriously nice work.
Especially once Montero starts to hit for power.
~G
we should trade Ackley if he does not play 2B ? I've plenty of confidence Ackley could be a productive LF - or even 1B - once he's moved away from the hard duties of a middle infielder. He's a pure hitter and I'm afraid his work in progress at 2B is just spoiling his hitting skills.
Well, I'm not alone on this earth:
"At some point this season, you might see a lineup where Jesus Montero catches, Dustin Ackley plays left field, Seager second base, Liddi third, Justin Smoak first and Carp DH."
http://blog.thenewstribune.com/mariners/2012/04/25/change-is-coming-to-t...
The M's cannot have been clearer on that point. Wedge, Zduriencik, et. al. consistently point out that they have invested too much in placing Ackley at 2b to move him. You don't do that to your #2 overall pick. You don't do that to a guy who's worked hard and improved himself into being more than capable defensively at the position. And you don't do that to a bat that hit for a 117 OPS+ last season. And you certainly don't move him because of Seager, Liddi, or any other lesser rate prospect. But, don't take my word for it. Just listen to Z or Wedge. It ain't gonna happen.
G's just pointing out that you don't make your franchise more valuable by taking one of your premium assets and making it worth less. Ackley played 1b because of the arm injury. Ackley is not a fit in the OF because of the arm injury.
Moving Ackley is a non-starter, next.
- Ben.
So I don't think his taxing MIF work is destroying him at the plate this year. And if I did believe that, then I'd be even less likely to put Liddi at his hardest possible glove position and risk the same issue. I'd have Liddi as a DH/1B to save his bat, then.
Moving Ackley off position can only be done once. You can't really move him to left, then back to 2nd, then off to first base...
I don't see Ackley being moved off this year. I just don't. In the offseason, if it works out best for the team, maybe. A few experimental games in LF when we get all our promotions going? Possibly. With Saunders being productive and Guti due back, he's not getting time in center, and both Carp and Wells are trying to get time in left as well, but we could squeeze in some games if needed there for Ackley.
But putting Ackley in LF turns him from Bryan Roberts with a Chase Utley upside into NEEDING to hit that upside in order to be the corner bat we need. Or needing Liddi to bomb 40 to make up for it, which I guess is always possible.
But it lowers Dustin's value both to us and to other teams, and is something you don't do lightly. "Ho hum, move to left" is not something you say to him with a really good reason.
Regardless, I'd give Liddi a few more ABs (read: the rest of this year at least) before I even think about moving Ackley around. We can find em without moving Dustin.
~G
IF Smoak plays (the hammy, you know), then I'm WAY frustrated if Olivo plays.
I'm always frustrated with Olivo in the lineup. But if Smoak is out and Liddi is at 1B, and Montero DH's...then you need a catcher. I would prefer it to be Jaso.
But if Smoak plays tonight, there is no excuse that makes sense of playing Olivo.
That was my point.
I respect your point of view and maybe that - i.e. waiting a full season - could be the right timing before making any moves like that. Unfortunately I think the problems with some bats will be so great this year that something different has to happen before. I can't say right now which players are going to be involved but sooner or later someone's hitting stats will be so embarassing to be ignored by GMZ and Wedge if they really want to field a decent lineup and draw something more than a AAA attendance. And I never forget that we have an outfield with zero power, I do not know if and how a major league team can afford a situation like that year after year.
Edit: to be clear I'm not thinking to move Ackley to make room for Liddi - I'm not so dumb, Liddi future is in his own hands only, if he keeps on hitting and fielding this way there's no way he'll be benched but if he's just a mirage in a short time he's back to Tacoma for well. I sincerely believe that Ackley as a single player could be much more useful and productive to the team elsewhere, as well as Seager at 2B.
Holy snot, btw.
Olivo as the DO (Designated out) again tonight.
Smoak and Montero and Liddi (3B) in the lineup. That's good.
No Figgins, Wells instead. That's real good.
I don't care if the Tigers are throwing a lefty, not Olivo, please.
But I didn't make a desperate plea about this situation.
I have to be more specific, I think.
Go team
moe
How much dinero is gained by this one deal?
I like Wedge as a man and as a motivator. But Einstein said "Insanity is doing the same thing, over and over again, but expecting different results." Unless he is being given instructions from the front office, anybody who rolls out Figgins and Olivo onto the ballfield more than once every couple of weeks is nuts. Or blind. Or never looked at past or present offensive and defensive stats. Or the standings. Or the scoreboard. I totally understand loyalty to your players, but come on.... have a clue. And FREE JASO. How stupid do they think we are?
If they aren't going to reup with Ichiro, they are going to need a RF. Liddi would look good out there - the Buhner comps would be interesting if he can defend the position.
Another HR? 400+ feet off an 85 MPH pitch?
If we gave Peguero the better part of two months to prove he had a hole in his strike zone the size of a Buick - and Liddi has shown no such hole in the time I've been watching him - then Liddi's got a long time to work himself out of the regular rotation at this point. He'll be in all games against lefties, absolutely, as well as other spots.
I just think Liddi can do that - get regular at bats - without Ackley needing to move or Seager sitting much.
~G
I still have mild interest in Rich Poythress & don't forget Mike Carp at the first base position not to mention Liddi, as he kinda looks good right now.
Lets not forget that at one time Jack himself mentioned that he thought Justin Smoak may have been rushed in and brought up to quickly. Justin really hasn't been seasoned well in the minors. He's only had a little over 600 MiLB at bats, and those at bats have been spread over 3 MiLB seasons 2 organizations and a total of 6 different teams. Smoak may need to be sent down, It may just be a matter of repetition, if so and the struggles continue, I'd rather see that he get his reps in Tacoma. It's a win win situation. Smoak irons things out, the M's gain service time and/or trade value. Yep, Service time is valuable to every MLB team. Time = Money. At 25 yrs. old you start thinking bust over the next few years. If he cant do anything in May or June then it's "polish and salvage time" in Tacoma. Me thinks.
Z has actually made some questionable pick in trades with young talent as well. Smoak over Montero, that reliever over Smyly, and Noesi over Nova. Controversial picks at the time, and look worse in hindsight.
Not a believer in Liddi as a regular, but he's earning his shot. I've just seen too many of these high K types flame out to buy in.
The team could use another pitcher(s) for young hitter deal.. SP is easier to come by these days.
Would have LOVED him and that would have made the Fister deal appropriate, but if Noesi over Nova was a choice, Smyly was not. And we wouldn't have gone for Smoak if the Yankees had replaced Adams in the deal. Sure, we were gouging em. And Montero has looked like every bit the huge WAR catcher we needed and he's barely gotten started.
But Beavan's still throwing the stuffing out of the ball while the injured Yankee Adams has lost most of the last two seasons. And we have Jaso for the other part of that Rangers deal, which means it had value. Smoak + Beavan + Jaso, or Montero?
I'm not ready to say Smoak isn't the 1B we desperately needed too, but I agree with your original assessment, Taro - Montero's better straight up, and Doc's principal of always getting the best hitter rather than the best assortment of parts applies. I think Jack's desire to get the most movable pieces sometimes gets the best of him. In the Pineda deal, I was happy to see him get the most important one and worry about that.
If he knew what a time bomb Pineda was, it's even more adroit.
Still, I'm with you: There's one more pitcher-for-hitter deal coming. No such thing as a (predictably healthy) pitching prospect. But with Saunders and Liddi both looking like their power stroke will be there whatever their average winds up with on those long bodies...
We're getting better. I'm curious to see what the lineup looks like when Carp is good to go, and what happens if and when Guti returns. No lid established for this whole team yet. For whatever mis-steps Jack might have made, the youth assembled is REALLY interesting.
~G
Doc,
I also meant to say that I really appreciate your mention of Schmidt's 1st BL year.
.196 isn't very impressive. A K a game isn't very impressive (especially in '73. Schmidt lead the league the next three years running, btw. He K'ed 145 time in Eugene AAA the year prior).
But there was that power. That trumps a lot.
Liddi may not ever hit 48....or 548, but he has hit 4 in 21 Mariner games. (edit: Now 5 in 22 games) He's demonstrated that 30 is in his wheelhouse.
He won't walk 110 pts like Schmidt, but he'll walk enough....and more as he hurts more pitchers.
He should have been in the lineup in Japan.
Now he needs to stay.
If Smoak plays tonight and Olivo is in the lineup, I'll be a frustrated camper.
moe