Fool the M's once, shame on YOU ... but
So that pass on Adam Dunn -- how's that workin' out for yer?
:winning Anthony Hopkins smile:
The Mariners could have had two Branyans this year. Would that have changed the season? We know for a bloomin' fact that ONE Branyan did!
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We say Dunn RE-visited ... here was one of the earlier visitations. Actually, if you type the dude's name into the search box on this site, you'll come up with a dozen articles on him.
Among the 1000's of dreary (for me) words that we slogged through, trying to convince folks that Adam Dunn is deserving of a major league roster spot ...
This SSI article pointed out that Dunn -- despite his wonderful production in 2008 -- had been very UNlucky. (He hit 16 balls >400 feet that were not HR's.) ...usually, we neosabes go bonkers when we find a guy who, "normalized," is a hidden gem.
Even this opportunity to identify an unlucky hitter through sabermetrics didn't sway everybody, though...
In 2009, Big Donkey's luck did normalize. He's now hitting 275/400/550 in a pitcher's park, good for a sky-high OPS+ of 149. He's got 75 RBI, which creates a nice proportional backdrop to Russell the Muscle's 56.
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=== Available? ===
M's Watcher at Mariner Central points out Jon Heyman's article that claims that Adam Dunn is likely to clear waivers.
A team of 9 Adam Dunns would be scoring 8.2 runs per game this year. I'm not much good with math, but I believe a team of 9 Mariners wouldn't.
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=== Yeah, But He's Just a DH ===
Dunn, on the Mariners, would indeed have to DH. Is that okay? Can you spend money at the DH slot? A funny question to ask in Seattle, no? :- ) I thought a picture was supposed to be worth 1,000 words, but 15 years of Edgar Martinez didn't quite get through to us...
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1. Boston built this decade's powerhouse on Manny and a DH, that being David Ortiz.
2. If the Mariners traded for Adrian Gonzalez, either Branyan or Gonzalez would DH.
3. The last time the Mariners had a good offense, was when they built it around THE DH. The M's offense collapsed precisely when the .400 OBP, high-PX engine blew a head gasket.
4. If you didn't get the first three points: yes, it's fine to build around a DH.
Boston went ahead and put their thermo-nukes at the easy side of the D-spectrum, and then gave themselves the responsibility to work around the fact that their #3-4 hitters clogged the "Chance" Yahtzee spots.
It worked out okay.
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=== Cheap at 5 Times the Price Dept. ===
So: Felix, Morrow, Aumont, and Triunfel for Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Buchholz and a couple prospects?
In Geoffy's reported deal:
Felix - for - Adrian Gonzalez
Buchholz - for - Morrow
Aumont, Triunfel - for - Two Boston spects
Cancel the fractions and it's a Felix-for-Gonzalez concept. More on this later, and on the very good reasons that Capt Jack might want to swap a handful of Bavasi's / Fontaine's prospects for his own selections.
:winning Hopkins smile gain:
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There's actually a great argument for that, and John Hart can frame it for you if you like. It's called investing your retirement money in secure -- hitting -- returns. And putting your disposable income into speculative -- pitching -- returns.
The Felix-for-Gonzalez CONCEPT is actually perfectly reasonable. We'd like more than Gonazalez, true, but ... a young lefty OBP/SLG superstar on the cheap? Who else would you trade Felix for?
And it would allow Capt Jack to replace Fontaine's blue-chippers with his own blue-chippers. Don't undersell the whole idea.
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But once you start thinking about trading Felix for Adrian Gonzalez:
What the deuce is your problem with just taking Dunn, instead of Gonzalez, if the difference in price is Felix Hernandez?
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You want Russell Branyan back? Adam Dunn has a whale of a lot more documentation than Branyan does, and he's younger, too.
Why feel so warm-and-fuzzy about Branyan, and so icky about Adam Dunn? They're the same player, except that Adam Dunn is a bit less glove, a bit more bat, and a couple fewer birthdays.
We're probably talking about this winter, rather than talking about an August waiver deal. But why Dunn INSTEAD OF Branyan? Branyan-Dunn might be be your poor man's, Safeco-ized version of Manny and Ortiz.
Cheers,
Dr D