Prince Fielder - Handicap, 12.13.11
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Q. What's the handicap now?
A. Boras is awfully unpredictable, and this winter we are getting a lot of stealth action. No guarantees. But some things look relatively safe to say:
MIAMI - They actually like Gaby Sanchez at 1B, and they do not have a DH slot available -- especially for Prince's after-30 years. You're an NL team, you're going to pay Prince $25M to play first base when he's 35?
The Marlins have consistently said they don't want him. At 8-10 years in contract length, NL action is a serious, serious question for Prince. This man is not going to be able to play first at age 34. Dr. D knows this from personal experience. :- )
The Marlins could still be in it, but I'd bet good money against it.
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TEXAS - Ryan was very convincing in denying interest. It's true that they could lie low, but remember, they let C.J. Wilson go to their death-rivals. For 1/2, or 1/3, of the money that Prince would cost.
Think about it. In five years, you would let Michael Pineda go, for a piddling 5/$75, so that you could give (say) Joey Votto 8/$210?
You know what I mean. Would you feel good about swapping your Opening Day starter out, for a cleanup hitter at three times the money? Wouldn't you have just re-signed your starter and added another nice piece with the leftover $100M?
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MILWAUKEE - Is holding Seattle-style press conferences, their GM defiant, as to why their franchise cannot seriously bid for Fielder. They're out, except in one scenario: Fielder and Boras wind up very angry at the M's offer.
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LA Angels - The team that Dr. D feared, seems somewhat unlikely to sign Prince Fielder at this point in time.
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CHICAGO NL - Publicly advertised an interest at fewer years and more dollars. Boras, it turns out, wants more more MORE years and that's final.
This is the one team, along with maybe Texas, that (this week) you could see caving in to Boras' demands in a spur-of-the-moment decision. But that DH factor is comforting.
Would think that the Cubs and M's are the final two, and the Cubs don't look strong.
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WASHINGTON - Said from the start that they were uninterested in either Pujols or Fielder, and backed it up by passing on Albert.
Their GM on TV, two days ago, said very emphatically that they like LaRoche, like Morse at 1B, and that they want premium starting pitching. Personally, I've ruled Washington out.
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MARINERS - Will go the extra years, will pay a nice (but not market-setting) salary, have a DH slot for later on, and their GM is a Prince fan (and pal).
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=== Dr's Diagnosis Dept. ===
On paper, anyway, it looks fairly evident that the Mariners have pole position. Three different places attest to their signalling a Mark Teixeria contract - 8 years, a little more than $20M per year, something of that nature. I could buy it.
The holdups, it says here, are that (1) Boras wants more if it's out there -- wants to make absolutely positive that he's not leaving any money on the table. And (2) Prince and Boras want to decide whether the Mariners can make the playoffs, either this year or next.
That's where we're at. If nothing weird happens in the next two weeks, the Mariners are slight favorites -- against the field -- to sign Fielder.
If it occurred, the Mariners would get TWO Xmas presents. This would leave the Mariners (1) with Prince Fielder, and (2) Prince at a price galling to Boras. What a step forward that would be towards Zduriencik's rebuild - the franchise bat at a bargain price, with extra money available later.
Or, per Geoff Baker, extra money available this winter. "Hey, Prince! Don't forget if we lock this up by Christmas, we can get you some extra pieces!"
Sigh, okay, let's do 'er.
BABVA,
Dr D