Prince Fielder - Handicap, 12.13.11

 ...........

Q.  What's the handicap now?

A.  Boras is awfully unpredictable, and this winter we are getting a lot of stealth action.  No guarantees.  But some things look relatively safe to say:

MIAMI - They actually like Gaby Sanchez at 1B, and they do not have a DH slot available -- especially for Prince's after-30 years.  You're an NL team, you're going to pay Prince $25M to play first base when he's 35?

The Marlins have consistently said they don't want him.  At 8-10 years in contract length, NL action is a serious, serious question for Prince.  This man is not going to be able to play first at age 34.  Dr. D knows this from personal experience.  :- )

The Marlins could still be in it, but I'd bet good money against it.

.

TEXAS - Ryan was very convincing in denying interest.  It's true that they could lie low, but remember, they let C.J. Wilson go to their death-rivals.  For 1/2, or 1/3, of the money that Prince would cost.

Think about it.  In five years, you would let Michael Pineda go, for a piddling 5/$75, so that you could give (say) Joey Votto 8/$210?

You know what I mean.  Would you feel good about swapping your Opening Day starter out, for a cleanup hitter at three times the money?  Wouldn't you have just re-signed your starter and added another nice piece with the leftover $100M?

.

MILWAUKEE - Is holding Seattle-style press conferences, their GM defiant, as to why their franchise cannot seriously bid for Fielder.  They're out, except in one scenario:  Fielder and Boras wind up very angry at the M's offer.

.

LA Angels - The team that Dr. D feared, seems somewhat unlikely to sign Prince Fielder at this point in time.

.

CHICAGO NL - Publicly advertised an interest at fewer years and more dollars.  Boras, it turns out, wants more more MORE years and that's final.

This is the one team, along with maybe Texas, that (this week) you could see caving in to Boras' demands in a spur-of-the-moment decision.  But that DH factor is comforting.

Would think that the Cubs and M's are the final two, and the Cubs don't look strong.

.

WASHINGTON - Said from the start that they were uninterested in either Pujols or Fielder, and backed it up by passing on Albert.

Their GM on TV, two days ago, said very emphatically that they like LaRoche, like Morse at 1B, and that they want premium starting pitching.  Personally, I've ruled Washington out.

.

MARINERS - Will go the extra years, will pay a nice (but not market-setting) salary, have a DH slot for later on, and their GM is a Prince fan (and pal).

.

=== Dr's Diagnosis Dept. ===

On paper, anyway, it looks fairly evident that the Mariners have pole position.  Three different places attest to their signalling a Mark Teixeria contract - 8 years, a little more than $20M per year, something of that nature.   I could buy it.

The holdups, it says here, are that (1) Boras wants more if it's out there -- wants to make absolutely positive that he's not leaving any money on the table.  And (2) Prince and Boras want to decide whether the Mariners can make the playoffs, either this year or next.

That's where we're at.  If nothing weird happens in the next two weeks, the Mariners are slight favorites -- against the field -- to sign Fielder.

If it occurred, the Mariners would get TWO Xmas presents.  This would leave the Mariners (1) with Prince Fielder, and (2) Prince at a price galling to Boras.  What a step forward that would be towards Zduriencik's rebuild - the franchise bat at a bargain price, with extra money available later.

Or, per Geoff Baker, extra money available this winter.  "Hey, Prince!  Don't forget if we lock this up by Christmas, we can get you some extra pieces!"

Sigh, okay, let's do 'er.

BABVA,

Dr D

 

Comments

1
Nick's picture

Darn you Doc for getting my hopes up ;)
All your above arguments make sense. I for one am veryyy comfortable with an 8-year contract.  However what about the Jays? They seem like your classic sleeper team that didn't get talked up much but then you realize, "Jeez, there's no reason for them not to be involved." They are AL, have only $47 million committed and a 2012 payroll likely north of $70 million, and have Adam Lind and his 734 OPS at first...
The only consolation is their FO's philosophy on +5 year contracts, but I have a hard time believing Fielder wouldn't necessitate an exception...
Thoughts?
-Nick

2

Toronto?  They've been linked a couple times and have even less payroll obligations than the Mariners and it's not like Adam Lind would keep them away from Fielder.

4

They aren't supposed to go past five years on anybody. It's the Cardinals I'm worried about, although they also can't DH Fielder so we'll see how long a contract they are willing to offer.

5

OK....Well analyzed Doc,
I've assumed the M's were the favorites the last few days, and actually expected an announcement.
8X$20M? The Pujols-set market says that's the price......or at least Boras believes so. But it doesn't appear that all the likely suspects buy into that market evaluation.  Boras bets that the pot will simmer for a bit and some GM will boil over. 
But what does $6X25M and a mutual option get you, right now? 
That would make it $160M vs $150M and the chance that Prince still pulls down some big green when he opts out.  Were I ownership, I would rather spend the extra $5-large for the first 6 years than the extra $20-large for the final, two.
That is the Moe line, and I'm wondering if the Mariner offer on the table doesn't look something like that.
BTW, I'm wondering if the Angels would hit the Redo button if they could?
Go team.

6
benihana's picture

8/160 vs. 6/150 and you say take the 6?  
Prince Fielder age 34 and age 35 seasons for $5 million a piece? And this is a bad deal? 
Josh Willingham just signed for his age 33 through 35 seasons for $7 million each.  Josh Willingham has never had an OPS+ over 129.
Michael Cuddyer is in the same boat and looking at $9-10 million.   He's never had an OPS+ over 124.
Preemptively: I don't buy the Cecil comparison arguments.  Prince is coming from a much more sustained high point.  Cecil had one great season, Prince has had 3 of the last 5, and his "down year" in 2010 would have been Cecil's second best.  Yes they share genetics, same way KGjr shared genetics with his dad.
8 years, 160 million, sign me up.
I think it's gonna take 7/160 to get it done, so I'll take the free year, tyvm.
- Ben.

7

You know that at some point you're going to start hearing about some team or other, and the Cards make as much sense as anybody.  Heard anything specific on that CPB?
Though Prince would look weird, weird, weeeiiiirrrd in a Cardinals' home jersey :- )
..........
Yeah, Nick, Toronto is supposed to be a nonfactor on 6-year deals, much less 8-10 year deals.  That, and do you live anywhere near Canada?  
SSI bumper sticker:  "You want to move to North Dakota?  Canadians do."  ... Don't remember any celebrity hitters wanting to swing the bat in 20 degrees and pay the Canadian income tax.
But it's moot.  The Jays aren't into 8-year deals.

9

Between the super-rich guys and us dweezils watching from the stands.  ;- )
Those end years are cheeeeaaaaaap by the time you get there.   .... I think at Prospect Insider they even had an argument, in the thread, that 6/150 was preferable to 8/150.  Literally!  Go 6/150, not 8/150.   Heh :- )
:big smile kiddies:

10

Beni,
In years 7 and 8 it would still be a $20M whack, because that is the number that a front office would count against any budget cap.  If Fielder were injured and done by then he would be a $20M anchor and nobody would look at it as a $5M salary.....mostly because it wouldn't be a $5M salary.
No matter how you look at what Figgins salary MIGHT have been, we still owe him $9M a year for three years. 
I suspect that if years 7-10 (or 7-8) were no-brainers then Boras would have already been offered the contract he wanted. 
Doc, you've already postulated the great drag that Pujols' contract is going to place on the Angels in years 5+.  Just because they might have offered him 8X$32 that doesn't mean that years 9-10 are somehow free years.  In years 9-10 he's still getting $25M.  You could argue the inflation factor, I suppose.....But you haven't yet.
moe

11
glmuskie's picture

I wouldn't be completely surprised if Fielder ends up taking a shorter term deal for higher annual dollars.  The thinking being, after 5 years he's 32 and can negotiate another monster deal.
The fact that Boras is NOT angling for that (from all appearances) indicates to me that he's skeptical about Fielder's later-year production.  It also probably has something to do Fielder and/or his wife wanting longer-term stability and security.  They'd probably rather know their kids won't have to be changing schools 5 years down the road.
I think part of it is ego, both for Fielder and Boras - wanting to keep the bar high for years and dollars, to keep ratcheting up the size of contract players can command.  But part of it also is pragmatic, due to Fielder's body type and geneology.

12
benihana's picture

 
 
I believe the major disconnect is the dogmatic approach that fans have been conditioned to accept regarding annual budgets.
There seems to be a prevailing idea that the budget is set in stone, be it at $93 million this year, or some other random number.  The idea continues that budget busting contracts won't be accepted, and somewhat cynically, that any savings in the budget this year will simply be pocketed by the owners.
Frankly, there is no "budget cap" in 2017, at least certainly not one in which we fans should be worried about some "anchor" weighing down, because we believe the front office lacks a basic conceptual understanding of economics.
----
Assuming 5% growth in salaries (a number I find historically to be a very low estimate: http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/salaries/avgsalaries) the net present value of a salary paying 25 million for the next 6 years is $127 million.  The net present value of an annuity paying 20 million for the next  8 years is $129 million.
So you are talking about $2 million dollars in present day value, not even $5 million per year, $2 million - to gain 2 additional years of Fielder's service.
To assume that the front office doesn't understand that fact, is, in my opinion, laughably presumptive.
---
(edited to add:)
We've somehow been conditioned to believe that the average annual value (AAV) of a contract is the number that gets set into the budget, and that the total AAVs counted up can't exceed some arbitrary budget number?  Count me on the side that is dismissive of that idea.  It's not how business is done.
However, where this works to the front office's advantage is in perception.  For instance $200 million dollars comes to mind, since it just happens to be how many fingers and toes we have times 10 million!  Sign up Fielder to 10 years, $200 million, with $3 million a year deferred for an additional 10 years.  Your present day value would be less, your annual commitment would be less, but the perception of two hundred million dollars would be greater.  Gotta love perception.
 
- Ben.
 
 

13

And I figured they'd be a real threat since they have to replace Pujols. But their GM was interviewed this week and had this to say:
Can we safely assume you will not be in the Prince Fielder sweepstakes?
“That’s a safe assumption.”
 
With that things are looking fabulous. During the season people just assumed that there would be twenty teams throwing crazy offers at Prince and that he was guaranteed to get a deal that was absolutely ridiculous. As I tried to explain, the Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Phillies and Dodgers all would be completely uninvolved which meant the M's actually were in a great position to not only land him but get him at a reasonable price. So far that seems to be exactly the case. There is absolutely not a bidding war going on, instead we just have a handful of teams timidly sniffing around and none of them have given any indication they will go all out for Fielder. What we have been hearing is that teams don't have the heart to give him a monster deal and Boras' faux-cockiness is giving away the game which is that he doesn't have the type of market he was expecting.

14

Were there not a budget cap for 2017 then every team would be throwing around Pujols type contracts, willy-nilly.
Of course, that doesn't happen.  It doesn't happen because of financial reasons.  It doesn't happen because of ROI reasons.  It doesn't happen because there is some nebulous cap that front offices adhere to. 
We're I an Angels fan, I would certainly think that the $20+ gabillion that we spend on Pujols (I'm assuming he's underproducing at that point) in years 8-10 are $20+ gabillion that we don't spend on someone else.  It's an anchor.
The $9 million we're spending on Figgins this year is $9 million we're not spending elsewhere.  Cuddyer might be automatic if we had that $9M back.  If Figgins remains an expensive, less-that-replacement player, then he is certainly a "drag" on the M's ability to spend elsewhere.  Not many people are disputing that, I think. 
moe
 

15

First, we aren't assuming that Fielder will be worthless in 7 or 8 years, nor are we saying that spending $20 million+ on a worthless player wouldn't hamstring the team. What we are saying is that even if he pulls a Bagwell and practically doesn't play at all the last two years of his contract it wouldn't necessarily mean that the M's are doomed. It's just a way of illustrating that overpaying him at the end of the contract isn't some deathnell to the franchise that must be avoided at all costs.
Second, you can't just look at the last couple years of a deal and come to a conclusion. As Tango explains here, you have to look at the contract in it's entirety. The team will likely get a significant discount at the beginning of the deal which will offset the overpay at the end.
That's why Fielder makes sense for this team. The M's can push some of his current costs on to later years which allows the team to get more talent in the short team and thus makes it easier to start winning in the next two years. And once the team becomes a winner again revenues will increase which will offset the declining value of Fielder's contract.

16

It's possible that ages 15 and 16 won't be the most fun seasons, but you've got to look at the driver's license year in context.  ;- )  The age-16 year isn't necessarily going to be a total writeoff, exactly, but even if it were, you wouldn't have wanted to miss age 3 because of it.
I'm sure that the argument CPB refers to, no doubt as precise as it probably is --- > does not even (need to) capture the Stars & Scrubs value bonus by which Fielder clears four roster slots for Carps and Paxtons.
It says here that if Fielder's on-field value is $22M per, he gains you another $10-25M per season in space cleared for talented young players.  If you have them.  Which the M's do.
He'll do that in year 8, too, if he makes $23M that year and produces 2.0 WAR.  Those four slots will still be clear.

17

Doc,
That's a point I'll definately agree with.  Have said so already. Signing Fielder means you go with a bunch of young guys and some of them are going to be real good in the next 6 years.
I love that idea.
I just worry whether we get 3, or even 2, WAR out of Fielder after 6 years.
Boog Powell and Jack Cust both lost their skills about age 32 or 33.  That's my type of concern.
However, Willie Stargell (who became a BIG man despite starting out relatively svelt) continues on until he was 37 or 38, as did Frank Howard (the original).  Howard may be the best body comparison, and he kept crushing the ball until he was 37 or so.
Just looked it up, by the way, B-R has Prince as the 246th best hitter of all times....and Hondo as 247.  Interesting.
I'm not against signing Fielder, at all.  Just give me the 6X$25 over an 8 year deal.
And I think this is where the M's are right now. 
moe
 

18

If he pulls an Adam Dunn with 4-5 years left on the deal, that's an owie, no doubt...
Moe, what do you do with Benihana's point that --- > the 8-year deal has very little more Net Present Value (NPV) cost than the 6-year deal?

20

Everybody seems to gag at the idea of Fielder going to the wasteland that they see as Seattle, so we're rarely mentioned and when we are, it's for people to deny that we could be in it.
Here's an example.  Galling for M's fans to see what a laughingstock the Mariners are around the league.  They need Prince for that reason alone.  Legitimize a lineup?  How about we legitimize the organization first...
If Seattle, given the facts here, were the Rangers, or even the Tigers, the national press would have him in Seattle already.

21

If Sveum is denying any contact, man alive, who else is there?!
............
It would be interesting timing for --- > Zduriencik to line up a Taijuan/Votto type deal --- > turn to Boras and slap down an 8-year deal for Prince, and --- > tell Boras he has 48 hours to decide.
Make HIM sweat for once.  Without Seattle, Fielder might get hung out to dry here.

22
Taro's picture

The one thing with Boras clients. They almost always take the best deal.
Rooting for the Fielder market to stay cold..

23

Basically, some random mystery team is more likely to land Fielder than the M's because, well, it's the Mariners. Only a money grubbing wh*re like ARod would go to the Mariners.
Do all 29 other GM's have to announce publically that they aren't interested in Fielder before the media will admit that the M's are the easy frontrunners for him? Because the Mariners are the only team who have been linked to him that haven't already done so, with the slight exception of Toronto (and if they get Darvish then what ever sliver of a chance they had will be gone).

25

He's a bad long term fit for every NL club but that's just because of the rules. In the AL, the biggest spenders already have first base locked up and Toronto and Texas need pitching more than offense (and Texas doesn't seem to have the cash right now that every seems to think they do). There just aren't a lot of teams that have the money to spend and are a good fit. The current situation was entirely predictable before the season so it shouldn't be scary that it has developed.

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