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If Dr. D reads 20 USSM articles, 19 of them remind him of the Jim Bowden - Gary Huckabay interview on Baseball Prospectus a few years back.  Saber consultants, Bowden sez, are useless because "there isn't a dime's worth of difference between you guys.  You like pitchers who strike out a lot of guys, who walk few, and who keep the ball on the ground.  Well, no kidding.  Us dumb-nuts scouts woulda never thought of that."

And 19 times in 20, reading Cameron's stuff, I smile at Bowden's self-aggrandizing complaint that sabermigos naturally agree on everything :- )

That's 19 times, though ... the 20th time was today's USSM article on Josh Hamilton.   The article is based on the idea of calmly buying out a player's missed time and risk, and it even comes to exactly the figure that Dr. D guesstimated:  6/130 for Hamilton.

Here is our Sept. 14th shtick on Hamilton.  To me the Mariners' roster is a sensationally precise fit for Hamilton:  when he misses 40 games in a year, well, those are 40 games per year that you wanted to give to other outfielders anyway.  The Mariners no longer have Ichiro, so they put Hamilton in CF and rotate 3-4 young outfielders around the corners.  

Also, Michael Saunders' best role is in flexing between CF and the corners; Josh Hamilton also has played RF as well as LF.  A 5-to-make-3 jobshare, revolving around Hamilton's 125 games, would be ideal for the Mariners.  You start next season with Saunders, Thames, then Wells, then Carp, maybe Robinson there; if Romero, Catricala, Franklin etc take over an outfield position, that's fine down the road.

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=== Holding Our Breath, Dept. ===

We might assume that Seattle's a longshot; maybe they are, but their pursuit of Prince Fielder was serious.  Best guesstimates were that they offered Fielder $170-180M and Boras insisted on a 2.  Zduriencik held firm.

Will teams "get carried away" in the bidding?  Here's a reprint of Glenn DuPaul's take at the Hardball Times:

• The Yankees won’t be in the market, as they are attempting to dip beneath the luxury tax threshold
• The Angels still have Vernon Wells on the books, so I don't see Jerry Dipoto bringing in another aging outfielder long term, and should be more concerned with locking Trout up
• The Dodgers can't be possibly be in the market for Hamilton... unless they're printing money or something
• The Red Sox just freed up a ton of payroll flexibility and have no left fielder, but they're probably going to use that money on Jacoby Ellsbury and starting pitching, not on Hamilton, especially with what just happened with Crawford
• The Nationals want to be a big market club, but they already have Werth on the books
• The Marlins spent crazy money last offseason, but the likelihood of them venturing down that road again is slim 
• The Phillies need outfielders and Ruben Amaro Jr. loves long-term deals, so I guess it's a possibility, but still feels like a long shot
• The Tigers and Giants are possible mystery teams that could maybe make a run at Hamilton

If your main competition turns out to be in Milwaukee and Baltimore, that's still not a slam dunk, but it's better than if your main competition were New York and Boston.

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=== Technical Term for This:  "Best Case Scenario" ===

The scenario in which Hamilton plays here, that is.  What production would you pencil in?  

If he played 80 games and had a washout season, the M's could absorb it with at-bats given to Franklin, Liddi, Carp, Romero etc.  If Hamilton ran into substance trouble that brought on the worst-case situation, well, the standard MLB contracts provide for that.  And if Hamilton played 145-150 games, hit 45 homers and won the MVP, that'd be gravy.  He could.

Make it so,

Dr D

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