The Oregon Ducks lost more than a great coach this week. With sources saying that Oregon’s head coach Chip Kelly will now become the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, U of O finds themselves in a tough spot. Under Kelly, the Ducks went 46-7 over four years. The decision to leaves comes on the tail end of a dominant victory over Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl in early January 2013.
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... well, okay, "Talking Points," not GameDay, probably. I been reading too many traffic-seducing Euro soccer headlines. Guess I shoulda went with "Is Walter Jones Preparing to Play This Sunday?!", followed by an article mentioning that he's not.
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=== Point ===
Dr. D will be watching the Vikings-Packers playoff game with more interest than almost any NFL game this year, that didn't involve the Seahawks.
Not only is this the most traditional rivalry left standing in 2012, but ... Minny has a decent chance of beating the Packers, with Adrian Peterson running the ball in cold weather, and if so, they have a good chance of beating the overrated Falcons.
And if that occurs, the NFC championship game, Minnesota-Seattle at CLink, would be a Seahawks bye into the Super Bowl. Having a bye during the NFC championship game would be ... valuable.
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=== CounterPoint ===
SSI fears for the officiating this Sunday. Not everybody realizes that the Redskins are one of the most valuable sports franchises on the globe, sometimes THE most valuable. Over the past decade the race has been between Manchester United, the Yankees, the Redskins, and a couple of other teams.
The furore over the Redskins' glamor (?) season has been preposterous. And when the New York Knicks are making a lunge for a championship, the refereeing they get in Madison Square Garden makes the games there unwatchable.
Complicating this, the NFL is going to be royally ticked off about Richard Sherman's In-Yo-Face to their drug testing. ... we read that the 2005 Super Bowl was fixed, which it was in my humble opinion, precisely because the NFL was annoyed at Mike Holmgren breaking code and mouthing off about things he shouldn't have. Dr. D nevvvvvverrrrr underestimates the seaminess of NFL back-stage dealing.
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Bill James divided baseball into six historical eras. The era that existed before the current era, 1969-1992 or so, he called the "Artificial Turf" era.
With everything available to define an era, he went with the playing surface. James' beloved 1980's Royals were an epic turf team, meaning one that exploited speed and finesse. In Weaver On Strategy, Earl lamented the way his big, powerful Orioles got embarrassed every time they went to Kansas City. "They played way back on us, getting to lots of extra ground balls. But if we tried that, it wouldn't work, because of the Orioles' speed down to first." Weaver revealed that there was only one place he'd have built an offense without home runs, and that was on the super-fast turf at Kansas City. James wrote essays about how much he liked the style of baseball played on turf.
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John Madden wrote, after he won the Super Bowl and retired, that he had one criteria applied to all his players. They all had to be natural-grass players. By that he meant that he didn't want players who avoided contact, preferring to use skill and speed to win football games. He wanted "lunch-pail" players.
In They Call Me Assassin, the Raiders' free safety Jack Tatum sneered at "finesse" teams. By the time they get to the second half, Tatum wrote, their will to win would be gone. The punishment that he and his fellow Raiders dished out would tell. "If you hit a man enough times," he said, "his will to win is going to be warped."
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=== Gameflow ===
Felix strolled in slowly from his bullpen warmup and the cheering crescendo'ed, like it used to in 1995 when the Big Unit strolled around the mausoleum. Willis said something to Felix, they both laughed and then Felix got solemn again. He looked choked up, actually, then raised his hat high and did a slow 360 like Thomas Crown entering the museum he's about to scam. The Indians looked as green about the gills as Rene Russo had under the same circumstances.
If anybody else had done it, the other team might have taken exception. Felix is an asterisk to the rule. His warm affection for the crowd was obvious from the third deck, and his simple sincerity disarms all objections that he might be showing up the other dugout. Felix just takes pure, honest joy in what he does.
We took a group of young people to the game. What did they grok from the evening? "Reverence," they said. The crowd's mood towards Felix was devotional. The man has Seattle eating out of the palm of his hand.
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Third pitch, Kipnis whacked a sharp single into right field and 39,000 people deflated. Awwwwww. That's too bad, Felix. Don't worry. We love you just as much. Sigh. That's a shame, though.
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Felix had good stuff, even by his own standards, on Tuesday night. His fastball averaged 92.9 MPH and would have been even higher if the last seven -- 15% of them -- had not dropped off in velocity. Felix' speed is, more or less, back.
Here is a movement chart for Tuesday night. The blue spots are from the perfect game; the red spots are from the start before that. As you can see, his breaking pitches were pretty much where they were for the perfect game. The fastball did not cut in as much on lefties as it has been doing -- it was about 50-50 half way between a regular 8" armside two-seamer and a crackling 0" cutter -- but still had the movement we love to see. The Cleveland game is represented by the black spots:
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Felix had a #1 starter result Tuesday night, eight* innings, one run. But you and I know that he wasn't as dominant as usual. The reason was pitchability and, as Matt said, command that was less than his best. The Indians guessed a lot of his pitches spot on.
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Bill James once spent an article sardonically praising Walter Matthau. For you kids looking up from your XBoxes, Matthau was the 1970's version of Billy Bob Thornton or Wallace Shawn ("inconceivable!"). When those guys are on the screen, you don't see anything else, which is both a huge blessing and a fatal flaw.
Hey! We can get Billy Bob THORNTON for our movie? Awesome! ... um.... what the deuce do we DO with him?
James' point was, of course, that there are ballplayers like that, guys who have skills and weapons that stand out even in an MLB crowd, but limitations that have you forever banging your head against the desk trying to fill out a lineup card...
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Wedge has remarked, many times, that Saunders has the skills to hit up and down the lineup. He's right. There are some players for whom no comfortable lineup slot exists. Bobby Higginson was always the guy I thought of like that: I liked him three, I liked him six, I liked him leading off.
As they say in England, where do you put Clint Dempsey? You put him on the pitch.
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I've spent my entire career on horseback or on a motorcycle. It boxes you in, the way people perceive you - Sam Elliott
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Q: This is a fluke couple of months for Millwood. There's maybe a 2% chance he'll pitch well all year. Millwon't.
A. Great quip on the Millwon't :- )
As to the Level 201 Scan here ... Kevin Millwood is entitled to put 2009 and 2005 on his resume. In those seasons, he established levels at which he's capable of performing.
The 3.67 ERA in 2009 was over 198 innings. Ranking #8 in the AL in ERA, pitching in that ballpark in Texas, is extremely impressive. In 2005 he actually led the AL in ERA, #1 in the league, in a Cleveland ballpark that is hardly Safeco.
For his career, his HR rate ain't 0.4 of course, but it is better than average. True, he was throwing the ball for slop in 2009 and 2010. But his velo was down in those years, the pitches were obviously mushy and the gopheritis in those years is not indicative of his career trends.
So if you're asking Dr. D, and you did when you clicked the bookmark :- ) I wouldn't call the chance 2%, not unless a 2% chance is likely to come up 2 of the last 6 iterations. If a guy hit 30 homers twice recently, I wouldn't peg his chances for 30 dings this year at 2%.
Sometimes the first draft didn't turn out to be quite what you'd envisioned
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Q. What about Taijuan?
A. OK, let's say your take is different than mine. You think that Paxton and Hultzen got work to do. Agree to disagree. Then what's the story on Taijuan Walker? He's got only 11 walks on the year and his motion is set, too. What's the excuse for his not being in Safeco?
If it's innings load, fine and dandy. Let him do a Santana out of the bullpen for two months - next year too; the M's had Santana in and out of the pen for three years. The electricity off the buzz would have the effect of helping re-boot...
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Q. Is the offense in crisis?
A. Here's a personal grok. I know, I know, we're supposed to be showing our work. Here on SSI, it's a baseball chat, not a summary argument in a court of law, and not a work sample disguised as a HBT "study".
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=== Gameflow ===
The M's crushed the Tigers like a pop can.
The no-hitter was followed by a couple of 15-hitters, which has us walkin' all loose and jangly, Satch. Did they say that Felix is 39-1 lifetime with a 4-run lead? Or 39-1 with 4 runs of support? Has to be the former. Or he'd be worth $100M per year to the Yankees ......
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==== The Dark Before the Dawn, Dept. ===
Going into last night's games, here were the best pitching staffs in the American League. The top six consisted of the five teams that the Mariners have played, along with the Yankees.
Let's re-state that. The Seattle Mariners have played no games against teams outside the red circles below:
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For 18 games, we've been reporting that the M's hitters have suffered one buzzsaw after another. The A's gave us McCarthy and Colon and ... that's about it. One game we drew Tommy Milone, whose ERA+ stands at 205. The Rangers, well ... the White Sox? Chris Sale looked like 17 wins standing still, Phil Humber was in a trance, and ...
You could reply, the above FIPs are caused by playing the Mariners. I could reply, check the ALCS as to the Rangers and Tigers; check the replays as to the White Sox pitchers; check the FIP stats last year as to McCarthy and Colon.
Earlier the thought was floated that the A's were easy clippin's. The A's are now 2-5 against the Mariners and 8-5 against the rest of the league.
Those five teams are, right now, +17 games on everybody else, and +1 game on the Mariners. They'd be -1 if the M's hadn't blown the 8-1 lead on Cleveland.
The Mariners have scored 76 runs, and allowed 77 runs, against this gauntlet. They're even steven against better-than-average opposition.
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No, for 17 games the Mariners saw one great pitching performance after another. Those guys going against us pitched great, deserved to get outs, and did get outs.
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Paracorto converts a 6-3 assist off our Gameflow fungo:
"Then Alex Liddi took one of those little Mike Schmidt half-swings, and hit a ball that ended the game on the spot."
You know I'm not a great fan of comparison with past players but I should admit you gave us an impressive picture right now. Am I dreaming ? Of course yes but the kid is just beginning to show what he could be. Give him more AB's, give him more AB's...
It would be dreaming for ANY player to aspire to be Mike Schmidt, who had the #16 WAR of all time. :- ) It would be dreaming to ask Evan Longoria to be Schmidt.
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But Liddi visually looks like Schmidt. And Schmidt was a dubious player until age 24; Big Blog would absolutely have considered the age 21-23 Mike Schmidt a fool's errand, for the same reasons they are scoffing at Liddi now. At age 23, Schmidt played 132 games in the National League and had a .196 batting average and huuuuuuuge strikeouts for the era.
