Michael Saunders: Batting Slot?

 .......................................................................

Bill James once spent an article sardonically praising Walter Matthau.  For you kids looking up from your XBoxes, Matthau was the 1970's version of Billy Bob Thornton or Wallace Shawn ("inconceivable!").  When those guys are on the screen, you don't see anything else, which is both a huge blessing and a fatal flaw.

Hey!  We can get Billy Bob THORNTON for our movie?  Awesome!  ... um.... what the deuce do we DO with him?

James' point was, of course, that there are ballplayers like that, guys who have skills and weapons that stand out even in an MLB crowd, but limitations that have you forever banging your head against the desk trying to fill out a lineup card...

...............

Wedge has remarked, many times, that Saunders has the skills to hit up and down the lineup.  He's right.  There are some players for whom no comfortable lineup slot exists.  Bobby Higginson was always the guy I thought of like that:  I liked him three, I liked him six, I liked him leading off.

As they say in England, where do you put Clint Dempsey?  You put him on the pitch.

.............

A long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, ML hitters were sorted into two sock piles.  Those who got you R, like Rickey Henderson, and those who got you RBI, like Jose Canseco.  (Ichiro's demise has been somewhat exaggerated -- not invented, but exaggerated -- because people have forgotten that, because of his superb baserunning, he retains some ability to score runs, leading off in front of quality hitters, and they've forgotten that Safeco ballplayers have to get their numbers adjusted.  Playing in Fenway, Ichiro would still score a hundred runs.)

Michael Saunders as Run BATTER-INNER has impressive skills:  he's on pace for 45 doubles and close to 20 homers.  With a fast runner on 1B, say Ichiro or Ackley, Saunders is more likely than anybody to rip a line drive that rolls between the outfielders.  If you wanted to Choo him over to Cleveland, you could bet on him for 100 RBI next year.

Michael Saunders as Run SCORER-HIMSELFER also has impressive skills:  he's on pace for 60 walks, he's batting .271 in Safeco which is .300 in Cleveland, and has a .337 OBP which is .360 in Cleveland.  

He is on pace for 25 SB's, with few caught stealings, and on a long single he eats the ground between 2B and 3B in about eight giant strides.

..............

The problem is that Saunders' RBI ability is camouflaged:  he doesn't hit forty homers.   And his R ability is camouflaged:  he stands 7 foot 3, does not sport a .400 OBP or 50 SB line, and he swings oddly through fastballs right down the middle (yes, the hole in his zone is CENTERED pitches).  

He is just a young player who is quite good at both R and at RBI, and who doesn't at all look the part of either one.

Logic dictates that you use him wherever he's needed.  Jay-Z has filled this team with lefty RBI men (Smoak, Carp, Seager, Montero*, Jaso, Liddi*), so Saunders would logically settle in as a #2 hitter.  Score you 90 runs and drive in 75 from that spot.  Of course, your #2 guy is supposed to be the guy who strikes out the least ... is this where we came in?

................

At least we can settle the issue of Saunders' position.  He's a center fielder, and a good one.  Oh, wait... maybe he's a +10 runs left fielder.  Hold on, if he's in left, that 120 OPS+ is no longer imposing...

Clint Dempsey has become the first American-born soccer player who is arguably a top-100 player.  Unfortunately, he doesn't quite score enough to play striker, doesn't pass quite well enough for attacking mid, doesn't quite tackle well enough to play back farther, doesn't quite have enough pace for the wing... weird thing is, his team wins.  More than it is supposed to.  Where do you put Clint Dempsey?  

You put him on the pitch.  Wherever you have a need at the time.  Roving All-Stars:  the 21st-century player.

Comments

1

He just had this question come in at Ask Bill....
 

My wife and I were dancing around the living room after Cain's perfect game last night. Suddenly she got a serious look on her face and said, "Poor Timmy. Do you think he'll ever come back? Ask Bill James." So, She Who Must Be Obeyed. The debate here in SF is whether all the doomsayers were right after all (ie he's too small to dominate for a long career) or whether it's a psyche problem.
Asked by: renny
Answered: 6/16/2012

Well... .are those the only two options?    I don't think it's psychological; something's wrong.   I certainly think it is POSSIBLE he will snap back, and I doubt that his size has much to do with it.   I would kind of put him, intuitively, in the group with Wes Ferrell, Jim Maloney, J. R. Richard, Dizzy Dean, Denny McLain, Doc Gooden. . .pitchers who were dominant for a few years as young men, and then fell off the mountain for some reason.   There are pitchers like that who are able to re-invent themselves and get back on top (Luis Tiant), although I think there are more who aren't.   

 

2

Lincecom as Denny McLain is a neat comparison. I"ll think lots about that.
40 double guys who can fly are terrific weapons (epecially WHEN the play center). Were he an NL hitter, I would think that I would hit Saunders at #5. With the M's he fits there, too....but I think he's my #6 hitter for the next few years, playing CF.
moe

3
Taro's picture

Lincecum's decline really highlights pitcher risk, even in the case of guys with very safe arm motions.
Both Timmy and Felix are guys with great mechanics and no real injury history, but no young pitcher is immune to losing their fastballs. Both were guys I would have bet strongly on a couple years ago, and now both are in decline. They're healthy, but just not quite what they used to be.
The upcoming trio of Ms prospect are all a bit risky from an injury standpoint (Walker in particular), but even healthy pitchers seem to have a short prime.
Milk the prime, then sell the guys a year early rather that a year late?

4

as I was talking about Saunders. Montero hit that ball to the wall and...ended up on first. Then Saunders lines a ball into the Right/Center Gap and comes around 1st with intent (that he probably would have swallowed) and...Montero is on 2nd. Everything worked out, but Montero creates some traffic jam on the base paths, and that guy being on the bases ahead of Saunders is often worse than having no one on ahead.

5

But I really expect Carp to be a 4 or 5 hole hitter.

6
Brent's picture

should be ahead of the Montero/Smoak clog. I've said elsewhere that having him in between Montero and Smoak is like having your Corvette stuck between a Kenworth and a Peterbilt. You've completely negated his speed. Maybe I'm nuts, but if Wedge wants to have the top of the lineup not be so left handed (I am presuming for this discussion that Ichiro is leading off) then the lineup should go 1) Ichiro 2) Guti/Wells depending which one is playing 3) Saunders 4) Seager 5) Montero 6) Smoak 7) Ackley 8) Jaso 9) Ryan. When Olivo is playing (and we all know that Wedge will play him) have him hit 7th and move Ackley to 8th to keep the right-left-right part that Wedge wants.
I know, you are screaming "Ackley 8th!!". At this point, yes, until he picks it up. Remember this is my Ichiro-is-still-here-and-leading-off lineup. Next year, when Ichiro is likely not here, then you re-think things. Saunders or Ackley are your best options to lead off. They don't just hit singles, they hit doubles. If they did hit a single or work a walk, they have the speed to steal rather than wait around to be bunted over. But that's going to be next year, because I just don't see Wedge moving Ichiro to 7th or 8th in the lineup.

7

Makes me wish supervised medical use of certain PEDs would be approved... For injury recovery, longevity, etc. Might be better than surgery in many cases. Though I expect stem cell therapies in the future to have a similar or better effect.

8
ghost's picture

He just was never healthy...I'm convinced this is what screwed him up at the plate. Ever try swinging a bat with a bum shoulder? :)
When he gets healthy (perhaps not til next season fully recovered), he's going to be the 30 HR threat we need. I am similarly confident that eventually Ackley and Montero will get comfortable and start raking. Smoak...not so much. We are relying too much on Seager (who is now mired in a nasty slump) and Saunders...I just wish some of the others would get 'er done a bit more often...but I understand this is normal for a bunch of kids learning on the job.

10

Finding a RH bat to stuff between our LH bats (assuming Carp returns to form) is a bit of a dilemma. Is it Montero? Wells? Not Smoak (RH against lefties), I think.
Of course, there isn't anything that says you can't run a Seager/Carp/Saunders chunk in the batting order.
In a world I can imagine, next year we might have an order that looks like Ackley/Wells/Seager/Carp/Montero/Saunders/Liddi/Smoak/and then a SS (Luis Rodriguez or Franklin).
Of those guys, I think Smoak is the weirdest bet. He was gifted 1B this year, based on potential.
He won't get that gift next year, if he's OPS+'ing 85-90, or so, at the end of this year.
And, I wouldn't be uncomfortable with Saunders leading off.
The above lineup doesn't include Guti, Ichiro or some huge trade.
A guy like Mark Reynolds will probably be available next year (unless the O's re-up for $11M) and I suppose Peguero or Mike Wilson could pull a Joe Charboneau.
Luiz Antonio Jimenez? He's ripping this year, certainly...but how many 30year old rookes sudenly rip at the MLB level.
And then there's Catricala. He will get some MLB swings this year, certainly.
Maybe he's the RH bat to add to the lineup next year. Probably not a bad bet.
Smoak is the hugest question mark, I think. Not Carp, because healthy and playing everyday, he'll launch enough shots to stay. Not Guti, because I don't think he's an everyday player next year. Not Liddi, because he's largely dependent on any love affair we have with Smoak.
You know, I'm really ready for us to make most of those moves now.
Go team.
moe

11
muddyfrogwater's picture

A long, long time ago in a galaxy far, far away, ML hitters were sorted into two sock piles. Those who got you R, like Rickey Henderson, and those who got you RBI, like Jose Canseco.

And really this will never be reinvented. Just as sure as a bat and ball will always be used, so will the concept of batting order remain the same. Common understanding of probability leads everyone to the same spot.
As the gap grows shorter between the statistical peaks and valleys of the M's hitters and players start to separate themselves from one another the line-up will shake itself out to the common theme. Just in case you Yahoos didn't know.

12

OK, I know the total sample is fairly small, but lets just admit/acknowledge that Wells is a decent or better bat. He can play.
He's had 4 different "parts" of seasons: Detroit in '10 and '11, Seattle in '11 and '12.
He's OPS+'ed between 109 and 141 in each of those stops. He really hasn't had a bad mini-season, yet.
In 409 MLB PA's he's had exactly 40 extra base hits. In 185 Seattle PA's he's had 15 extra base hits.
He won't hit for a high average, but if you give the guy 600+ PA's, as the everyday RF, he'll whack nearly 55 2B/3B/taters for you. Your offense becomes quite potent when you can get 4 guys who can do that.
He's one.
He's a better than decent glove, who can go play CF for you, too.
I said this in ST, he deserves to be in the lineup, everyday. At that time I thought he should be a CF, as I did not see any new life in Saunders. I was wrong there, but not on Wells.
Saunders has now become a very valuable guy. A 600+ PA, 60 extra base CF, with a decent CF glove.
He's our 2nd extra-base guy.
And there we have 2/3 of an OF. Guti? Nah! Move him, for what you can get.
But, let's put this stuff about Wells not being a hitter to rest. OK. He'll never be a .300 hitter....but .260 guys with 30 doubles and 20 homers are very neat pieces to have.
Certainly better than a .255 (maybe) hitting Guti, who might knock 38 extra-base hits.
I could be quite happy, next year, with a Carp/Condor/Wells OF, with Trayvon as #4.
Really. I could. And we would be just fine.
But guys, Wells can hit. Capiche?
Play him nearly every day, Wedge. Olivo is in the way of a bunch of Wells AB's. Guti, too. Time to cut bait and release one and get a warm body for the other (paying down part of his salary, of course). Hanging on to Guti because he "might" come back (to a 90 OPS+ player) is stupid. Really. REally stupid, in fact. Safeco aids his CF numbers, Saunders was quite fine out there. There is no great indicator that he will be a offensive force. Time to move on. Today.
Ichiro will get his farewell tour. That's a given. But playing time for Olivo, Guti and Figgins shouldn't be. Playing the last two, when there are younger/better/ready guys, just because you gave them bad contracts is bad decision-making.
Wedge seems to be all about giving veterans a whole bunch, simply because they are veterans. He's wrong. In the annals of Mariner history, sometime down the line, Olivo and Figgins and Guti will simply be footnotes, blips on the page. They've been paid (and will continue to be for another year for two of them) handsomely. That's more than enough. Having them block better players is absurd. And if Wedge can't figure that out, tomorrow, then hanging on to him is absurd, too.
Honoring past bad decisions is still just honoring bad decisions. That's it.
Now just play Wells, Saunders, Carp (when recovered), Seager, Ackley, Montero, and Liddi. Throw Felix, Vargas (Don't trade him), Hultzen, Walker, Capps, Pryor and Wilhemsen. Let's go.
moe
PS. Career lines. Player #1 .229/.291/.410 Extra-base hit/12 PA's Homer/26 PA's
Player #2 .225/.308/.378 Extra-base hit/14 PA's Homer/30 PA's
#1 is Liddi, #2 is Smoak. OK, I know the sample size is significantly different, but let's establisha logical ending point where we determine whether Smoak might/might not be Texeira (or even close). Is that in 200 more PA's? 400? Certainly not 800. 650 PA's would get us to this point next year. Do you give him that long? Not me.

13
ghost's picture

He hasn't been fully healthy since 2009...and here in 2012, his swing appears to be all the way back to 2009 levels for crispness and opposite field power (see that double he hit today while being late on a pitch and guessing wrong on location?)...I think his line drive pop and above average glove will play fine if he can stay healthy.

14

What impresses me so far about his big-league stint(s) is that he’s hit righties and lefties equally. If you can do that as a RHB (and OPS over .800) then I can find a place for you, no question. I mean, Ryan hits LHP and RHP pretty equally, but it’s at a far lower OPS figure. .270/.330/.470 is a really nice player, for basically free. Jayson Werth minus a few walks is a terrific player (and Wells makes up for some of it by getting HBP). I had him as a 4th OF or CF, but an .800 OPS is a starter for us anywhere. Can he keep it up? I dunno. But much like Carp, Wells is in the timeframe where if he’s gonna do it, it needs to be now – and he’s doing it, against anybody.
I feel like we’re trying to build a baseball version of the Indiana Pacers – young, gutty team without superstars that will fight you to the death.
Except our pitching staff might still have a superstar or three by the time the offense is in fighting shape.
I wanted Wells in center field too, but his arm is spectacular (unlike Saunders) and better suited for a corner than either Mike’s, and assuming Ichiro is gone after this year we’ll need another full-time outfielder. Carp may or may not be able to resume outfield duties, and Smoak may or may not start hitting like we need him to. Olivo will be gone and Montero with take significantly more games behind the dish, freeing up DH time.
We can get all the fighters we have on the field going forward. Wells is a fighter, as are Jaso, Saunders, Carp, Seager, etc. I don’t know that it’s enough offense yet, certainly to take down the half-dozen teams we’re fighting for a wild-card with, but we’re getting there.
Imagine what we might do if our supposed MOTO hitters (Ackley, Montero, Smoak) actually start hitting? Ackley and Montero play glove positions so they can still help us some without jumping up a level (or two) of performance, but Smoak… Smoak’s gotta hit to contribute.
If he can’t do that this year, then Liddi and Carp will have something to say about his playing time shortly. With Wells showing he deserves playing time and Carp being last year’s best hitter… the squeeze for playing time is on and Smoak can’t be exempt much longer. Once Carp’s healthy, anyway.
~G

15

I'm not sure what there is to quit on. Does Guti have a couple more 100 OPS+ years in him? Probably. Is he better at the plate than either Wells or Saunders? No. He could take time from Ichiro, except that no one in the history of earth is ever allowed to give Ichiro more than one day off every 6 weeks on pain of death.
Can Guti hit in the Safe? Not really (.692 OPS). Of course, he can't hit on the road either (.653 OPS career). The only place he's ever really hit is his home park in Cleveland.
Can he hit righties? Not even in his career 2009 year (which was a .705 OPS, 150 points under his OPS against lefties, exactly the rate it's always been).
Upside Guti crushes lefties for a .850 OPS. That's it. That's his plus hitting stat. Probable Guti doesn't even do that. With his glove, that's still enough overall to get him time. We could absolutely use another righty who can hurt lefty pitching, since our everyday lineup is LH dominant.
But if Wells can hit lefties and Saunders can hit lefties, what is Guti doing?
I definitely want Guti to be back to 2009 - every 100 OPS+ or better hitter we can get is needed on this team. How long do you give him, and how many at-bats, to figure out what he is?
~G

Add comment

Filtered HTML

  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd><p><br>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

Plain text

  • No HTML tags allowed.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

shout_filter

  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <blockquote> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.