Seattle Sports Insider

M's 5 ......

.310, 30 HR, 105 RBI (prorated) since July 16. Montero Watch En Gage.

Posted by

8/21/12

=== Gameflow ===

Felix strolled in slowly from his bullpen warmup and the cheering crescendo'ed, like it used to in 1995 when the Big Unit strolled around the mausoleum. Willis said something to Felix, they both laughed and then Felix got solemn again. He looked choked up, actually, then raised his hat high and did a slow 360 like Thomas Crown entering the museum he's about to scam. The Indians looked as green about the gills as Rene Russo had under the same circumstances.

If anybody else had done it, the other team might have taken exception. Felix is an asterisk to the rule. His warm affection for the crowd was obvious from the third deck, and his simple sincerity disarms all objections that he might be showing up the other dugout. Felix just takes pure, honest joy in what he does.

We took a group of young people to the game. What did they grok from the evening? "Reverence," they said. The crowd's mood towards Felix was devotional. The man has Seattle eating out of the palm of his hand.

............

Third pitch, Kipnis whacked a sharp single into right field and 39,000 people deflated. Awwwwww. That's too bad, Felix. Don't worry. We love you just as much. Sigh. That's a shame, though.

We looked up later in the game and the Indians had 7 hits to the Mariners' 1 ... and the score was tied, the victory scripted. This ballgame did indeed feel like August 1995. Not September 1995: it felt like August 1995. Like, you know it's impossible, but these guys don't yet know that. Let's enjoy another week or two. ... there's a contradiction here, because you know they're not going to do it, but you imagine the angels in the outfield bending the foul poles the correct directions. How can those two things be true at the same time?

Like we sez, the hits were 7-1 Cleveland and the victory was certain. Bottom of the 7th, I turned to my business associate and said, this isn't going to take long. They'll get a couple here real quick, Wilhelmsen will close it out, and we'll be on the road in twenty minutes...

Saunders walked. My friend laughed. Seager hit one off Kotchman's glove. He stopped laughing. True story.

To paraphrase Leto, god-Emperor of Dune, how sweet these last few sips of humanity are.

=== If a Ball Hit the Upper Deck and Nobody Heard the Ad Shatter, Would It Make Any Noise Dept. ===

Montero's blast -- enjoy the vid here -- was like blowing out the candles on a birthday cake. It lacked what, a couple of feet of being upper-deck -- in deep left-center. It was a compact swing, very short to the ball, and it was every inch of 438 feet. Like we sez, Montero is a HIT guy first, a PWR guy second, and we're blinkin' likin' it. He's taking things in exactly the right order.

Since July 16th, 29 games now, Montero is hitting .310 with a .478 SLG, and with an 8:13 EYE (0.62) that is better than I ever thought he'd do. The last month, he's been a .310 hitter with 30 homers, and ... well, here, let's chart it out.

	AVG	OBP	SLG	EYE	HR	RBI	R
Jesus Montero, July 16ff	.310	.356	.478	0.62	30	106	76

Maybe that's how good Montero is now. VERY possible. If so, the Mariners are functioning with two MOTO hitters, him and John Jaso. Which would partially explain winning every night. (One of you other amigos, last week, had caught the July 16ff run already. Sound off?)

Montero Watch - Engage.

=== Eric Thames ===

... was hitting .286/.322/.500 for the Mariners before his game-tying HR on Tuesday. His EYE, though, was at 2:15 before the game and he added one K, no walks, during the night's festivities. EYE is a critical leading indicator for both AVG and PWR, so the mainframe definitely spits out a looming Pumpkin-At-Midnight scenario for the lad.

That's the prime computation. If you're seeking a bit of silicon solace, remember that Kyle Seager had a lousy EYE in April and May ... because they didn't respect him yet. If that's what's going on -- I doubt it -- Thames has another week or two's worth of homers and doubles before they wise up. We could live with that.

But, man, Thames could break a bat checking his swing. In 18 games so far, he has functioned as if he'd been a major deadline-day grab. He has been, if he never gets another hit, a sharp little coup for Jay-Z. Here's hoping that Thames wins another couple of big games for us -- as he did tonight and last night -- before Trayvon steps up to take the baton from him. :- )

Comments

Schedule

Let's see...the last 38 games include:
ANGELS - 9
ATHLETICS: 6
RANGERS: 6
TWINS: 4
RED SOX: 3
WHITE SOX: 3
ORIOLES: 3
BLUE JAYS: 3
INDIANS: 1
So...we have (charitably) 11 games left against non-contenders (if you consider Boston not in contention given their recent struggles), 9 games against the flawed Angels, 12 games against contenders (White Sox, Orioles and Athletics) and 6 games against Texas (tough games we can't use to gain in the WC).
Boy...if we're going to have a cinderella run...the schedule certainly lines up well for it (we have to play almost everyone we have to catch)...or the fun's about to be over. We'll soon see.

Guys who whiff on fastballs don't have good batting eyes

Call that an axiom, if you will. If you hit the stuff that will fall out of the zone but swing through the stuff in the zone, it's hard to get walks. And it's not like Eric is immune to swinging at stuff outside the zone.
Let's compare Thames and his contact/swing rates to Jaso's, since Jaso has apparently turned into Lou Gehrig for the year. Jaso swings at 20% of outside-the-zone pitches. Thames? 36%. Jaso makes contact with 71% of those this year (low for him, actually), which Thames comes in lower, 59% this year and 65 for his ML career thus far.
Inside the zone is not better. Jaso is at 90+% contact inside the zone (a little dip this year to 89%), while Thames is at 84% this year. Thames swings at half the pitches he sees, Jaso's down around a third of the pitches - far more selective.
Jaso is absolutely the wrong guy to comp Thames to, since they have such different approaches at the plate. So who is Thames like?
O-swing over 35%, Z-swing around 65%, swings at half the pitches?
Mike Moustakas - lefty, poor eye, raw hitter, good power, still trying to find his impact stroke
Ian Desmond - SS, but has similarly bad eye and good power for the position, came into his own in his 3rd season
Mark Trumbo - same bad eye, same swing and contact rates (or worse), prodigious power.
Seriously, Thames is in the Moose/Trumbo parallel of hitter comps. if you hate Trumbo and think he'll crash and burn, or that Moose is very over-rated as a prospect because of his deficiencies, then feel free to hate Thames.
The difference is that both of those guys can hit fastballs, and right now Thames doesn't do that. Is that pitch recognition? Hand-eye coordination as Doc said he was concerned about? Is it a choice not to get beaten by breaking balls and waiting a little too long on the fastball as a by-product?
I want to see more of Thames. I'm a big batting-eye fan, but there are hitters who simply ignore it and hit well anyway. Eric didn't put up a lifetime .312 minor league average because he was unable to ever put a bat on a ball, and slider-speed bats can be very effective (which is not Eric's problem, because his bat speed is pretty darn plus).
He intrigues me. If it's my team he's sticking around next year. Of course, if we decide to add a free agent OF, then one of Wells/Thames/Robinson is out, and both Wells and Robinson can back up all three OF positions. But I definitely want to see if more exposure to ML pitching demolishes Thames, or gives him the pitch recognition to swing a touch earlier and hit a few more fastballs over the fence.
I'd hate to see another team move him up half-a-step in the box to take the break out of breaking pitches (relying on his batspeed to help with fastballs) and see him explode offensively. There's some tinder there to ignite, but I honestly don't know if it'll create an offensive explosion or a funeral pyre. I'd like the chance to find out.
~G

Montero

I was at the game last night. I haven't been impressed with Montero much this year. But that home run swing was vintage Edgar. The little short arms, the follow through that looked effortless, and the way the ball carried forrrreverrrr. Seriously, I jumped out of my seat at contact, thinking it might be into the bullpen at best. It just kept going and going.
This streak is amazing when you think about how little we have gotten from our core hitters. I can't wait until next year when everyone is a year older and stronger. I think that if nothing else this will energize our young guys. This month shows all of them (and the fans too) that the m's are not that far off. Exciting stuff!