Seattle Sports Insider

Miranda vs Carrasco

PITCHER BATTER MATCHUPS

Here are the backgrounds. At BJOL there was an interesting statement last week, "All managers should always ignore all such data." I hae me do'ots, but in this case nobody has seen anybody much yet. Which favors the pitchers, whatever they tell you.

Key thing for Miranda is always those two or three warning-track balls, and the 3rd time through the lineup. See what approach he uses after they're used to his sneaky fastball and his change on the same tunnel.

TREVOR PLOUFFE

Interesting little riddle for us as sabes that Matty posted. Why isn't Trevor Plouffe doing better? (Keep in mind that if Edwin Diaz' component skills match --- > Lee Smith, Dennis Eckersley, Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman and Joe Shlabotnik, that is considered a 'Best. Case. Outcome.' Comp groups always have scrubeenies.)

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"Moshing" off of Sullivan

This won't be a long thread. I get to make "money" off of Jeff Sullivan, who is awesome at stuff like this and did all of my work for me.

But I thought the good Doctor might appreciate reading the original piece and my befuddled "huhhhh???" reaction.

So here's the initial piece, discussing just who Mitch Haniger is similar to so far in about 50 games:

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M's 8, Tigers 0

PREDICTABLE FAWNING Dept.

Back when Paxton was leaning back too far, back when he was wild, he got hit around one game and he remarked "I've either got to spot my fastball or get a breaking pitch over. One of the two." He said that or something that amounts to exactly that. The point was, nobody can get away with ONE weapon. He needed two.

...

Fast forward to nowadays... in the Shout Box during the first 2 hitters we ticked off 6 weapons, as opposed to two weapons. The most nuclear of these is the fastball inner 1/3 to righties. Paxton is distinctive here in that a Cliff Lee will throw it precisely on the inside edge or just off the edge inside, but Paxton will take a good 5, 6 inches of the plate in addition! to that. It's more like 6 inches than 5. And Paxton will throw that inner-third fastball thigh high, or over the hands.

It's a good candidate for the most unhittable pitch I have seen. Even Randy Johnson rarely threw jam pitches at RH's after he hit J.T. Snow.

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Zeus vs Daniel Norris

Y'know the 1993-1998 Mariners would have held my attention even if they'd lost 95 games. Which they didn't, but I'd have bought one ticket every 5th day just for the fireworks on display in that one.

K-Pax' statline sits at 10.7 K, 1.8 BB and 0.0 HR. Last time out, the A's showed that it's possible to score a few runs off Paxton if he can't hit the broad side of a barn door AND if the hitter lock in on mistake fastballs. That isn't going to happen often. We warned yer, after 3 shutouts, that there would be a few bad days. Now, after the A's game, we warn the Tigers that it isn't likely to be pretty. ;- )

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M's 9, Tigers 19

THE KING IS DEAD, LONG LIVE THE KING

There's a bright side to everything, up to and including food riots in Banana Republics. As any 12-step counselor could tell you, the first step in correcting a problem is ... hurling a trash can through a storefront window. Or if you're more inclined to an intellectual solution, to replace guys pitching bad with guys pitching good.

Felix has a bright side to his own life. Like, $25M per year, and mob-hugs any time he steps outside his car. To work out hard for 4 months and then pull something is frustrating, no doubt. Felix is kewl and the Goddess of Proportion does not wish to seem harsh. But:

(1) The Mariners have scored 5+ runs in 11 of their last 15 games.

(2) If the Mariners had given up no more than 4 runs a game they'd be on an 11-4 streak, minimum. Sabermetric formulas establish this conclusively.

(3) Felix has given up 39 hits and 6 homers in less than three complete games' worth of innings. Rather than list helplessly on battery power as the Lights of Zetar (your garden-variety league MOTOs) approach , I'd rather haul the Enterprise into dry dock and commandeer a lesser ship with Warp 2 capability.

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Editor's Choice, 4.24.17

GROK 1

Scott Servais first brought up the idea of Jean Segura 1, Mitch Haniger 2. This was a delightful suggestion. Shortly after, SABRMatt first brought up the idea of a freakish runs total for Mitch Haniger. He is at 19 runs scored in 20 games, and Khris Davis has the next-best American League total at 14.

Haniger is fast. His OBP is .430 because he is sneaking up on people in front of our vaunted MOTO and because his fish rate is 19%. Remember we used to not be able to decide whether Michael Saunders was a Runs guy or an OBP guy? This is kinda like that, except good.

His WAR is at 1.4, by the way, in 1/8 of the season. Can you imagine if this guy actually did rack up like 8 WAR. (Also James Paxton has 1.3 WAR in 4 starts, so a projected 11 or so WAR. The funny thing is that it's hard to imagine him pitching differently in the forthcoming 7 eighths of his season. The other funny thing is that no other Mariner pitcher has more than 0.3 WAR; Felix and his half-hearted Paxton hugs are at 0.1.)

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Malcontent on Gallardo

Malcontent (as well as his virtual reclamation project, HWMNBN) has well earned a couple of bows in the aftermath of Gallardo's shutout. And he has more info-tainment for us:

For practically the first time in his career (The first time anywhere near this level since 2010!), Yovani Gallardo is throwing at the top of the zone aggressively with his 2 fastballs. Similar things are true of his Slider. His change-up is new and improved, with a higher level of aggression and confidence than previous seasons it seems. He still isn't getting the bottom of the strike zone like I want, but he's making things work anyway. Don't miss the incredibly low exit velocity he's allowed over all 4 starts this season, yesterday wasn't a fluke.

Yes, all those are actually links, and good ones :- ) the second one especially -- where he says "aggressively with his 2 fastballs" -- gives a good look at the number of high heaters. Good on yer Mal!

Gallardo's batted-ball velocity has been around 85-86 MPH early on, which is very good in a short set of IP, and it does not surprise the Mainframe because --- > he does have 3 different breaking pitches off his fastball, and he is, ah, "careful" with his fastball as innings eaters are. So it wouldn't surprise any if he maintained an ability to keep hitters mostly off their back feet.

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M's 9, A's 0

IGNITION SWITCHES

Several reports had it that the Mariners players didn't like the Leonydas offload, not one little bit. But see where it leads. A lot of times it is good to communicate your expectations. Especially if those expectations do not involve 7-12 records.

Speaking of which (W-L records), the M's are now +90 runs -85. It also says the M's position players are #8 of 30 teams in WAR, #3 in the American League.

So we get a thunderous win, a day off to bask in it. Then we get Felix, throwing really quite well, followed by Zeus. With Jean Segura joining the offensive festivities. That's 31 runs in 5 games, 75 in 14 games since the first week. All without our MVP! MVP! MVP! leadoff hitter and shortstop. Ah, what a difference a win (and a new center fielder) can make in your outlook on life, love and the national pastime.

Seriously, does anybody else feel totally re-invigorated? You gotta think this is a best-case outcome day off when you hit the EJECT button on your starting center fielder.

TAYLOR MOTTER

Has a HR-per-Flyball rate of ... whaaaa? Why doesn't Fangraphs have his 2017 stats up? Anyway, like 50% or 80% or "e" or something.

A statgeek from Los Angeles might hit the internet. And might surmise Taylor Motter has gotten lucky. He ain't. When you sink your weight, pull the ball into your power alley in the air, and most notably when you scatter the popcorn vendors in the upper deck, that ain't luck. That's getting your pitch.

Can he continue this, on any level? Let's watch and find out. He's going to play until he has proven to everybody's satisfaction that it was all a fluke.

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M's Outgrow Leonydas

Q. How can such an improbably nice, handsome, and all-around great guy be so mean?

A. Lady, they ain't athletes. And they ain't really even people. They're baseball players. Besides that, Leonys Martin will land on his feet. Better than Dr. D will, no doubt.

Q. OK then. What did you have against him in the first place?

A. Nothing other than his being Carlos Peguero minus the home runs. Well, and plus the glove. But I was okay with cutting him Sunday, and I'd have been okay with cutting him the day after the Texas deal, and I'd have been okay with cutting him any day in between. For nothing in return. It's called "addition by subtraction."

You're behind on the scoreboard, you get "traffic" going on the bases, Leonys advances to the plate ... and the opposing pitching coach trots out to the mound. Not to strategize; just to utterly savor the moment. Dr. D had tired of the anti-rally killshots a long time ago; judging by the fact that he dropped a STARTER off a plank in the middle of Safeco Field into the maw of the Sarlaac, Jerry Dipoto had also tired of it.

It's just a DFA. I could be reading too much it. But the rally deaths are past tense and I'm likin' it.

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He Who ... Just Threw a Nice Game

JOHN CLEESE "I APOLOGIZE UNRESERVEDLY DEPT."

Whether Gallardo throws another game like this, is beside the point. I definitely did not think him capable of this kind of performance. Thrilled to see that he is.

THROWING DOWNHILL

About the 2nd inning, Gallardo's fastball had you sort of blinking. He was using a very high front side, glove in the release area, shoulders connected to the CF very well ... well, he's always come over the top, Tall and Fall rather than drive and drop. But today he seemed to be throwing downhill, getting nice vertical bite.

Time and again he would throw the glove up there, crest the roller coaster and then the fastball would angle down to nip the knees. Boom, 91 on the grid, overlaying the bottom line of it. Then he'd bring it up over the zone, effectively wild, and they'd sucker for it. It was nice.

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