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PS Question
Does anybody know what "xwOBACON" stands for? Perhaps xwOBA assuming contact without strikeouts?
I notice also, browsing this table, that Ryon Healy has a better launch angle x launch velo than Jean Segura. That's got to be some tough luck he's had in the first half.
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PLAYOFFS
The Orcs got smashed by the Treants by a 7-1 score, leaving us with a comfy 5-game lead still:
| Playa | + - | GB / remark |
| NYY | +61 -32 | on pace for about 105 wins and a 2nd-place finish |
| SEA | +58 -37 | |
| Pesky rodent Orcs | +53 -42 | Can't see them winning 90, or us winning only 90 (+18) |
| TB | +48 -46 | -9.5 |
| Irrelevant LAA | +48 -47 | If you can't figure out why they're still being listed, that's on you |
We're playing sluggishly, that being +3 - 6 following an 8-game winning streak, but that's one of the perks we get with a huge lead. You can play sluggishly for a few weeks somewhere.
Wasn't it The Bard who penned, "O Robbie-o! Wherefore art thou Robbie-o?"
OK, we have a 5-game WC lead on the Orcs and 9.5 on TBR. There is some breathing room. But, in case you missed it, we've a dinged up pitching staff (hopefully no worse than that for Zeus) and we have some offensive issues, sort of.
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Hannibal sez,
People calling for a #2. We got one. He cost us O'Neill.
I'm looking for a salary dump innings eater. Maybe the Twins? Odorizzi or Lynn could be an adjustment away from useful as our "#6." I'm sure there are others, but I'm saying we need not mortgage the farm for Hamels.
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FIZZLERS - MIKE LEAKE
The kind of guy who when he's on, you think he's a "gamer" who's going to go 12-11, 4.01 every year. (I cheated; those are his actual lifetime 162-game averages.) When he's off, he's nibbling and picking with 87 MPH and you think he doesn't dare throw a strike in the zone.
Tuesday, he faced an Angels team overly-familiar with him and coughed up 11 (!) hits in 4 innings. This drove his ERA to 4.36, his ERA+ to 91 and his FIP/xFIP are no different. His 5.5 strikeout rate is way under budget, but then again his SwStr% is 7.9%, well ahead of his lifetime rate.
He'll be fine. But what I don't get is that he's got one weapon -- an 80-81 MPH slider -- and he throws it only 15% of the time. Whassup with that?
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Q. Would the M's be in Panic Mode if they'd lost Sunday's game?
A. I saw this in three major places, different major places, so I guess it must be a sentiment with some gumption to it. Let's see, would mean old Dr. D need to bust out his yardstick, and go "do a study of" (actually, grab several examples of) 93-win teams losing 3-of-4 games at any point in their seasons? Or merely saying it out loud, can we cashier this one right away?
The fact that M's fans (elsewhere) were jittery, on a 3-of-4 "losing streak" (!!) goes to show that M's fans (elsewhere) flat-out do not believe in this team, not for a second. In fact we can "measure" our own "belief" in the ballclub by asking that, "How nervous did I get when we lost a series?"
SABE CORNER
Bill James had this answer:
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Q. Would you take a shaky 5 IP, 3 ER from your #5 starter if you could have the same thing every time?
A. This comes from backgammon and skittles chess, where two pro's will barter the "settlement" of a game in a particular position. Let's say White is sitting with a 60% chance of winning, and the two players have bet $10 on the game. Black offers $5.50 cash to quit the game on the spot. Should White accept?
Of course, the theoretical answer is no; his game is "worth" $6 at the moment.
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PROPS TO Guillermo Heredia and his new approach to pull the ball. All the M's crew were on talking points memo - radio, postgame, all the folks. Heredia is now to get the bat head out in front and pull the ball, and he is to take fewer pitches.
Sherm had earlier provided the brilliant observation that Heredia's tilted-gyro swing doesn't match his inside-out intentions, nor his intentions to lift the ball to right-center. Servais noted this on SSI :- ) and came up with the simple fix. In this case by "simple" we don't mean "unintelligent;" we mean "shortest path to an objective with the fewest moving parts."
I do like the fix' chances to work for Heredia; if your bat head is going to be high quickly anyway, get it in front of the plate where it will meet the pitch plane better. As Sherm notes, it's still not KBIZLT but at least two ideas synch up for him now.
Servais' fix resulted in (1) a double and (2) a screaming double. Perhaps not a chainsaw but if he can trim a few edges it'll be just fine by us. Thank you, Scott Servais and Sherminator.
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PROPS TO a series win over the pesky rodent Angels. Remember the last fifteen years? Remember being -10 games back, and visiting the leaders, and dimly hoping for a sweep?
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As TJM notes, it's not a long-term problem -- we assume -- because we have 5 years of Robinson Cano, 2B and that is AFTER this year. Unless Jerry decides he likes his "sleek" team and comes up with something really blockbusterish .... naaaahhhh ...
Mo' Dawg sez:
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