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PS Question

Does anybody know what "xwOBACON" stands for?  Perhaps xwOBA assuming contact without strikeouts?

I notice also, browsing this table, that Ryon Healy has a better launch angle x launch velo than Jean Segura.  That's got to be some tough luck he's had in the first half.

I notice also that most of the M's have hit the ball much better (xwOBA) than their results show (wOBA), which would explain to ME, at least, the mysterious lack of run differential they've owned so far.  Just for instance: 

1) Nelson Cruz is slugging .538 but "should" be slugging .601.  

2) Mitch Haniger should be slugging .553 with average luck.  (!!)

3) And Ryon Healy should be slugging .517, leaving us the pleasant prospect that this is what they'll do in the second half.

Or am I missing something about their xwOBA-wOBA?


Other notes:

Ben Gamel is solid at an xwOBA of .334, helping to explain why the M's internal metrics are always so high on him.

Jean Segura is a super player, with a #2-3 type bat from SS, but has hit in a bit of luck and has like 22-23 infield hits or something.  So the eye's suspicion that he'll fade a bit in the second half is backed to some extent by StatCast.

Dee Gordon needs to step it up on the basepaths, as Mo' Dawg properly observed.  He's at a lowly .238.

And David Freitas (.330) has a higher xwOBA than Kyle Seager (.321)  :- )



I thought the fall was more spectactular than the catch, which may be a tad pusillanimous on Dr. D 's part, but here's Billy Hamilton's sensational homer-grab yesterday.

And here's an example of Dee Gordon "stepping it up" on the basepaths with StatCast metrics.  Kudos to Dave Sims for spotting it in real time.

The StatCast of Zuumball's tremendous HR that nearly cleared the wall in LF.

Finally, here's what I call a great catch.  Since when do RF's hit 30.0 ft/sec sprint times?


Dr D




The xwOBA stat attempts to correlate launch angle and velo with the wOBA resulting from it, combines that with the non-contact plays to calculate an expected figure. It's missing two major elements...

Fast runners get more hits on weak contact than slow ones, and pull hitters die to the shift on grounders and line drives more than push hitters.

They're going to have to account for sprint speed and launch lateral angle tendency to get a more accurate projection. I nevertheless use it as my starting point for analysis and mentally adjust for the above factors. Seager will always underperform the projection over the long haul and Segura and Gordon consistently outdo theirs by thirty to fifty points.


I have to wonder if this sort of stat portends a shot at a two-year extension for Cruz. I’d love to see him there a couple more years, which Cano probably at 1B (Healy could help bring in a pitcher or outfielder, in combination with other talent).


Oaky, maybe I’ve missed that with life going full-out crazy here. I thought he was doing alright. That would change things.

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