October Mega-Rotation Scorecard
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RockiesJeff sez,
Is that what makes baseball fun to watch? Who would have guessed when the Phillies signed Lee that they would get a longer vacation? Maybe go on a short getaway with the Yankees? It makes it fun to wonder what player will go from a Baldwin into Boardwalk, especially when you know many will go the other route.
.....Dr. D has always pushed the big rotations in October, but I've got to admit that the 2011 season was a beanball. Under the earflap, that is.
Bill James, maestro of the 30,000-foot historical view, once said "Baseball history is woven on the tapestry of Hall of Fame starters," or somesuch. Give me a GM job, and a challenge to win the playoffs, and I pile my Stars & Scrubs money into a huge 1-2-3 rotation. Guarantee you.
I don't say that a Stars & Scrubs team always beats a Civics team, of course. I maintain only that Stars & Scrubs teams have a big advantage in the postseason, in part because the play gets consolidated into your 5-6 best pitchers.
(And, of course, Stars & Scrubs positions you -- over the course of several seasons -- to create a better roster in the long term. But that's another subject.)
There is probably no more vivid, colorful way to illustrate the difference between SSI, and Fangraphs, than to watch a Mega-Rotation take on a team of no-names in October.
Their WAR/$ theory maintains that a WAR is a WAR is a WAR, and that 25 players who add up to 60 WAR are equal (even in an O.K. Corral matchup, with the bright lights on and the advance scouting piled 10' high) to any other team with 60 WAR. Whether or not that "other team" has Lee, Hamels, and Halladay.
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We had several mega-rotations bring their Imperial Walker stomp into the O.K. Corral's final eight, and in this particular playoff round, the Imperial Walkers did not laser as many Clantons (much less Ewoks) as they'd hoped.
The scorecard:
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Lee, Hamels, Oswalt and Halladay were argued as possibly the best rotation ever. St. Louis beat them fair and square, with Kyle Lohse (?), Jaime Garcia, the rent-a-pitcher Jackson and a snakebit Chris Carpenter. Not a single St. Louis SP had an ERA+ over 107. Every blinkin' one of 'em had a perfectly league-mediocre ERA this year. Win, Cardinals.
October Mega-Rotation Theory Grade: F.
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Admittedly, this wasn't the Yankees' best rotation, but CC Sabathia started 2 of 5 games, and Nova-Garcia-Burnett had led the Yankees to a 119 ERA+ this season. Whew.
After seeing some internet buzz that Justin Verlander was overhyped, I was pleased to see him, Scherzer and Fister carry the day against the Yankees. I fully expect Verlander to pull a Bob Gibson from here on out...
Big games from Verlander, Fister, and Scherzer -- against the Yankees, now -- pushed the Tigers through. October Mega-Rotation Grade: B+ or A-.
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The DRays brought a deep, talented 5-man rotation up against the Rangers' even better 5-man rotation (118 team ERA+). Colby Lewis and Matt Harrison, perhaps the Rangers #4-5 starters, won the close games for Texas. Price was valiant, but Shields and Hellickson couldn't hold Texas down. Maybe Taro was right all along and the Rangers have a juggernaut. :- )
Two excellent rotations that do not, however, feature $20M aces. Grade Incomplete.
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The DBacks and Brewers brought relatively normal team ERA+ to the party, but Milwaukee did have the edge in star power. Greinke won the Cy two years ago, Gallardo racks up a 200/60 control in 200 innings, and Marcum and Narveson are both stealth roto sleepers. It's as close as a small-market team is usually going to get to a Mega-Rotation.
A big performance from Gallardo to make Game 5's victory possible, but in terms of series flow, it was not a series for the aces. Grade N/A for the rotation scorecard.
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=== Dr's Diagnosis ===
As far as the dominance of any one baseball weapon -- ace, bullpen, HR, baserunning, defense -- this particular playoff round saw a nice balance of power.
Especially, I was a bit surprised to see as many 5+ run offensive games as there were. Earlier in 2011 there was hand-wringing about pitching taking over the game, and the playoffs were loaded with star pitching, and then you saw lots of runs in cold weather.
Baseball's fun to watch. And this is a better postseason than most I've seen.
Go Detroit :- )
BABVA,
Dr D