Ichiro as Yankee: 5th-Best Season of His Career
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Q. What if I want to argue that 220 plate appearances in NYY is a small sample size?
A. Then Dr. D would recommend that you take a stats class and learn what a sample is.
;- ) and then he would have a question for you: "Suppose that Ichiro had flopped in NYY, batting .199. Would you have called that a small sample, or would you say yeah, that's what I thought?"
Can't have it both ways. He left town. If he could have failed, he could have succeeded. Man up. His performance in New York matches the best ones of his career.
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Q. Okay, I would have declared victory if he had hit .242 as a Yankee. So I'll man up. Suppose we do take his NYY numbers as indicative. How good is he still?
A. He was batting .324 / .346 / .466 before Saturday's game (two hits from the #2 slot, a single and double and SB, thanks for asking). His BABIP as a Yankee is .343, which is below his career average of .347.
Had you noticed that his infield hit % is back to career norms, 15%? His grounder rate is back to 2.50, and his Yankee line drive rate would be the highest of his career.
Look. He went to the Yankees, got the pop back in his step, and he's slashing the ball all over the park.
I know that you've been disgusted with Ichiro for two years, LrKrBoi29, and it's a bitter pill to swallow that it was the Mariners' fault. Give it up. He was bored in Seattle. Most of the scouts in baseball, from what we heard, thought it very likely that he'd bounce back once he got out of here. That's why the Yankees went for him. If they'd just wanted a glove, there are plenty of those who don't make $18 million a year.
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Q. He's 100% the same player as ever?
A. No, his bat has slowed just a bit. Here's a 5-minute video of him, slashing the ball through the SS hole, guiding it up the middle, screaming it to RF ... he's maybe not quite as quick as he was in 2005, but the difference is verrrrry subtle. Watch the vid. He's wallowing in the pennant race.
But he may be only one notch down. One notch down from "top 5 player of the decade" would still be "impact leadoff hitter." Certainly he is a better player right now than any Mariner other than Jaso.
He's lost a tick with the bat, but .... nobody EVER took into account that he was the only great hitter ever to play his career in Safeco Field. Did you ever hear anybody say that really he was a much better hitter than his slash line? When he was hitting .330 and the next guy on the roster was hitting .260?
He'll have fewer infield hits as an ex-Mariner. He'll also have far more HR's and doubles. Ichiro hits the ball hard -- just not hard enough to hit homers in Safeco.
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Q. To which Mariner season does his Yankee time compare?
A. Back in 2005, Ichiro hit a lot of HR's at the expense of BB's. He was .303 / .350 / .436 in [Safeco and road], an OPS+ of 113. Now he's .324 / .346 / .466 in [Yankee and road], with an OPS+ of 118.
New Ichiro -- older and a fugitive from Safeco -- will be a leadoff hitter with fewer BB's but more gap power. In NYY his power numbers are 30+ doubles and 12-15 homers per year, pro-rated.
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Q. A lot of outfielders hit better than 118 OPS+ for $18 million.
A. Kenny Lofton's career OPS+ was 107. Lou Brock's was 109. You don't judge a leadoff hitter by his OPS+. He's there for his impact in a close game against a tough pitcher.
Ichiro's 118 OPS+ doesn't compare to cleanup-hitting OF's. But it does compare to Ichiro's career OPS+ of 113, and given his skill set 113 was HOF level. Again, Ichiro had a top-5 WAR for 2001-10 at that 113 level.
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Q. Predictions for Ichiro's contract this winter?
A. SSI predicts that saber pundits will value him at one level, and that real GM's will value him at a different level -- one much, much higher than that.
Hopefully it's not in Seattle. He deserves to rack up some stats in his old age. I'm hoping Boston or New York. Wouldn't surprise me a skosh to see him nab a 2- or 3-year deal to play RF for the New York Yankees or Boston Red Sox.
He gave this org a whale of a lot. I'm looking forward to watching him light pitchers up in the playoffs.
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