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Part I of Spectator's anti-Paxton rant here.*  Part I links yer to Part II.

*HEH!  

Excellent articles Jim.  And this is, no exaggeration, a much better site when in "Think Tank" mode, having people take opposing sides of a question.  You took the wrong side of this in a very skilled way.

:- ) 

... no, seriously, it's blinkin' seldom we reply to a post in a "Roundtable" tit-for-tat way.  Only when the argument on the other side is very persuasive.

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Q.  For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are dozens of Scott Kazmirs.

A.  I'll see you and raise.  For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are 17,000 other players (the number of MLB players in history).

Question on Paxton is whether he can be Brett Anderson, or maybe even David Price or Chris Sale, or at the top end Clayton Kershaw.  Dr. D isn't comparing Paxton to legends like Unit and Koufax, though that is the extreme end of Paxton's template.

Randy Johnson is, um, rare, but there are a good number of Derek Hollands and David Prices.  In fact virtually every left hand pitcher sporting a 92+ fastball, with enough control to stay in the rotation, is an impact TOR.

Kazmir is a buzzword for the worst-case scenario on a hyped power lefty, but ... he racked up 3.7, 3.8, and 5.1 WAR in the three seasons before his fastball tailed off.  If that's the worst you can do as a hyped LHP?  Three seasons of All-Star level contribution?, that's not shabby.  Brad Miller's downside is a lot lower than 3.7 WAR.

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Q.  Has Paxton solved the issues that led to a mediocre AAA season?

A.  It was a mediocre AAA season, yes.  And he has NOT solved the issues, no.   (Once he hit Safeco, he started making obvious progress on them.)

Dr. D's position is that he doesn't need to solve those issues before joining the Mariners, any more than Mulder and Gonzalez did with the A's, any more than Kershaw did with the Dodgers, etc.

But.  I gotta sign off on this accurate observation by Spec.  Yes Paxton was fighting himself.  And still is.

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Q.  Is Paxton similar to Brandon Maurer, who also has very impressive stuff?

A.  Maurer's RHP fastball is 92.9 MPH, which is pretty quick.  He's got three interesting pitches to go with it.

Paxton's LHP fastball is 94.7 MPH, the very fastest in the American League, way ahead of Derek Holland at 93.6.  Chris Sale is at 93.1.

And it cuts and sinks.  And it's overhand.  And yada yada yada.  Maurer has plus stuff, but K-Pax is on Taijuan's level.  It's three standard deviations past Maurer.

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Q.  Could Paxton gain from a year in AAA?

A.  He certainly could.

Having slo-mo'ed 4 starts to a fare-thee-well :- ) we realize that he's got very little to improve in terms of mechanics.  It's just repetitions.  That's all.  Pitchers just need to practice, and practice, and practice, and then their aim gets better.  Paxton could do that in AAA.

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Q.  Could Danny Hultzen be a better choice for 2014?

A.  He certainly could.

I saw Hultzen in person, and it turned around my evaluation of him... if his labrum isn't torn (guessing a 50% chance that it is) then he is only inches away from being a totally finished product.

Hultzen is much, much closer to his peak than Taijuan or Paxton are.  Problem is, his talent is probably vastly lower than theirs.  Maybe that means you want to use Hultzen first; that was Zduriencik's reasoning with Erasmo.

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Q.  Is this Dr. D's position, as Spec asked?

 

Anyway, if I understand Doc's argument, it would be this (please correct if I'm framing it wrong):

• Folks are concerned about Paxton because he had lapses of control in the minors.
• Minor league hitters are more willing to "go deep in the count" against power pitchers.
• Minor league umpires aren't as good.
• Such pitchers will do better in the majors.
• Leaving such pitchers in the minors will not help them get better.
• Therefore, Paxton should be in the majors, and he will not disappoint most of the time.

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/mild-dissent-james-paxton-0#stha...

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A.  No, it really isn't my position, so thanks for asking for clarification.

My position is stated in this article.  The above position would be farfetched and inaccurate.

The germ of similarity is this:  I've observed some wild power pitchers, against whom lower-level hitters couldn't make contact, benefit from the conditions at higher levels.  Kerry Wood and Tim Lincecum were examples.  

You want to be aware of this syndrome, in explaining the odd Wood, Lincecum, or Paxton :- ) but arguing that it WILL happen, that would be crazy.

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Q.  Does Cole vs Bauer go into Spec's corner?

A.  Big time.  One of his best calls.

I had both in the top 10, of course, but would have preferred Bauer.  Cole looked very Morrow-ish to me at UCLA, but as we say we'd have drafted him high.

Hey, Spectator ain't writing on this blog for no reason.  He's here because he's one of the best baseball writers on the internet.  I'd rather read his stuff than that of most authors on the national sites.  Fortunately for us, here he is, educating us all on Mariners bushers.

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Q.  Will ML hitters swing earlier than AAA hitters?  So far (in 3 starts), the pitch-per-batter doesn't bear that out.

A.  I've been down to Cheney and watched hitters do this to Paxton and Hultzen.  When either are struggling, they will stand there with the bats well-and-truly glued to their shoulders.

Perhaps after start #4 tonight against KC, the pitches-per-AB on Paxton have begun to come down as predicted.  Or maybe the "high pitches per AB" applies only in "meltdown moments."  

I don't know how you measure it -- first pitch swing rate with batters on base? -- but I've seen it happen.  How do you measure whether Marshawn Lynch runs into people a lot?  I dunno, but if you watch a game, it's obvious.  And PCL hitters definitely wait Paxton out.

I think it's probably just the 3-start "sample size" we need to be careful with...

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Q.  Nobody can maintain a .147 BABIP.  Paxton has gotten lucky.

A.  Right ... so if you "normalize" his ERA, what do you get?  a 3.09 xFIP, which would be top 10, both leagues.

SABRMatt has calculated that one of the biggest differences between AAA and MLB is --- > the way in which infielders convert ground balls to outs.  Paxton is throwing 59% ground balls (!!) and getting 8 K's a game.

Look, kiddies.  Show me a pitcher with 8K and 60% grounders, and I'll show you a guy I want on my ballclub.

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Q.  Most starters don't do well if they throw 18 pitches per inning!  This indicates that Paxton hasn't harnessed his tools into efficient outings.

A.  Well, yeah.  

He hasn't harnessed his game, and if you're looking for "efficiency" you're looking in the wrong place.  Was the rookie Kershaw efficient?

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Q.  I want to see a pitcher solve AAA.  Then we'll talk about promotion to MLB.

 

I have a different Paxton narrative:

• I'm concerned about Paxton because he throws too many pitches.
• When a pitcher with great stuff throws too many pitches, it is an indication that he hasn't figured out how to convert "stuff" into outs.
• I group Paxton with Maurer as guys who have yet to figure out harness their tools into efficient outings.
• It is not always productive to push guys with great stuff into an MLB rotation when they haven't yet "figured it out."
• Paxton's first two outings were brilliant, but did they really indicate that he'd "figured it out" going forward?

- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/mild-dissent-james-paxton-0#stha...

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A.  Let's talk SABER paradigms vs. SCOUTING paradigms.

Hey, gentlemen, if your paradigm is "I want to see a smooth arc up through AA, AAA, the bullpen, and then the rotation," you aren't alone.  :- )

But hitters have different arcs than pitchers do.  Pitchers leap plateaus.  Yer basic approach is that you are trying to use a hitter-based career arc projection.  First he's at 50 feet, then at 100 feet, then at 150 feet, then at 200 and he's ready for MLB... with hitters that is actually true.  If a BATTER could not hit in AAA then for sure you would not put him in Safeco.

So even if you wanted to stick with statistics here, Paxton's hardly rule him out as a 2014 rotation candidate.  The man walked 3.5 per game, you realize, not 6.0.

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Q.  Siiiiigh.  OK, you concede our point:  the stats do not dicate a promotion.  What is the scouting end of it saying, in your view?

A.  We owe you a post on Bad Paxton (5 IP, 3 ER vs Detroit) and another one on the KC game.

The question is what Paxton has to do, exactly, to be effective (and that's another post).  And how close he is to doing that.

What was going on in Bryce Harper's career, that made anybody think he should be in MLB?  He was hitting .243 with a .365 SLG, and then the Nationals called him up at age 19.  That wasn't a stats decision; it was a scouting decision.

When the Mariners drafted Taijuan Walker, stats had zero to do with anything.  It was 100% a question of visualizing him at the next step in his development.

With James Paxton, I ain't using stats to predict his 2014 season.  Point cheerfully conceded.  I'm using his pitcher template, and where I think he is within that template.  I'm visualizing him at the next step in his development -- which is expedited by Zunino and Willis.

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Good stuff amigos,

Dr D

 

 

BABVA,

Dr D