Re Paxton, can't remember seeing anyone throw a pitch quite like the way-low inside FB to righties that Paxton has been embarrassing at least one guy a game with (Butler tonight). It is a pitch that seems like it is obviously nowhere near a strike, yet draws swings. I'd imagine because (a) it comes in at 96, (b) if they get too passive on it, he'll sneak it up a bit and get the called K at the knees (that happened a couple times tonight too).
A fastball version of RJ's slider? Pax seems to be breaking down the normal geometry of the strike zone like Randy did (to my very untrained eye).
Doc I remember your early extremely positive assessment of Pax after I think seeing just a bullpen session a couple years ago. That stuck with me even as he was sloughing a bit in the minors...SSI way ahead of the curve as usual.
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Part I of Spectator's anti-Paxton rant here.* Part I links yer to Part II.
*HEH!
Excellent articles Jim. And this is, no exaggeration, a much better site when in "Think Tank" mode, having people take opposing sides of a question. You took the wrong side of this in a very skilled way.
:- )
... no, seriously, it's blinkin' seldom we reply to a post in a "Roundtable" tit-for-tat way. Only when the argument on the other side is very persuasive.
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Q. For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are dozens of Scott Kazmirs.
A. I'll see you and raise. For every 1 Randy Johnson, there are 17,000 other players (the number of MLB players in history).
Question on Paxton is whether he can be Brett Anderson, or maybe even David Price or Chris Sale, or at the top end Clayton Kershaw. Dr. D isn't comparing Paxton to legends like Unit and Koufax, though that is the extreme end of Paxton's template.
Randy Johnson is, um, rare, but there are a good number of Derek Hollands and David Prices. In fact virtually every left hand pitcher sporting a 92+ fastball, with enough control to stay in the rotation, is an impact TOR.
Kazmir is a buzzword for the worst-case scenario on a hyped power lefty, but ... he racked up 3.7, 3.8, and 5.1 WAR in the three seasons before his fastball tailed off. If that's the worst you can do as a hyped LHP? Three seasons of All-Star level contribution?, that's not shabby. Brad Miller's downside is a lot lower than 3.7 WAR.
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Q. Has Paxton solved the issues that led to a mediocre AAA season?
A. It was a mediocre AAA season, yes. And he has NOT solved the issues, no. (Once he hit Safeco, he started making obvious progress on them.)
Dr. D's position is that he doesn't need to solve those issues before joining the Mariners, any more than Mulder and Gonzalez did with the A's, any more than Kershaw did with the Dodgers, etc.
But. I gotta sign off on this accurate observation by Spec. Yes Paxton was fighting himself. And still is.
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Q. Is Paxton similar to Brandon Maurer, who also has very impressive stuff?
A. Maurer's RHP fastball is 92.9 MPH, which is pretty quick. He's got three interesting pitches to go with it.
Paxton's LHP fastball is 94.7 MPH, the very fastest in the American League, way ahead of Derek Holland at 93.6. Chris Sale is at 93.1.
And it cuts and sinks. And it's overhand. And yada yada yada. Maurer has plus stuff, but K-Pax is on Taijuan's level. It's three standard deviations past Maurer.
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Q. Could Paxton gain from a year in AAA?
A. He certainly could.
Having slo-mo'ed 4 starts to a fare-thee-well :- ) we realize that he's got very little to improve in terms of mechanics. It's just repetitions. That's all. Pitchers just need to practice, and practice, and practice, and then their aim gets better. Paxton could do that in AAA.
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Q. Could Danny Hultzen be a better choice for 2014?
A. He certainly could.
I saw Hultzen in person, and it turned around my evaluation of him... if his labrum isn't torn (guessing a 50% chance that it is) then he is only inches away from being a totally finished product.
Hultzen is much, much closer to his peak than Taijuan or Paxton are. Problem is, his talent is probably vastly lower than theirs. Maybe that means you want to use Hultzen first; that was Zduriencik's reasoning with Erasmo.
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Q. Is this Dr. D's position, as Spec asked?
Anyway, if I understand Doc's argument, it would be this (please correct if I'm framing it wrong):
- Folks are concerned about Paxton because he had lapses of control in the minors.
- Minor league hitters are more willing to "go deep in the count" against power pitchers.
- Minor league umpires aren't as good.
- Such pitchers will do better in the majors.
- Leaving such pitchers in the minors will not help them get better.
- Therefore, Paxton should be in the majors, and he will not disappoint most of the time.
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/mild-dissent-james-paxton-0#stha...
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A. No, it really isn't my position, so thanks for asking for clarification.
My position is stated in this article. The above position would be farfetched and inaccurate.
The germ of similarity is this: I've observed some wild power pitchers, against whom lower-level hitters couldn't make contact, benefit from the conditions at higher levels. Kerry Wood and Tim Lincecum were examples.
You want to be aware of this syndrome, in explaining the odd Wood, Lincecum, or Paxton :- ) but arguing that it WILL happen, that would be crazy.
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Q. Does Cole vs Bauer go into Spec's corner?
A. Big time. One of his best calls.
I had both in the top 10, of course, but would have preferred Bauer. Cole looked very Morrow-ish to me at UCLA, but as we say we'd have drafted him high.
Hey, Spectator ain't writing on this blog for no reason. He's here because he's one of the best baseball writers on the internet. I'd rather read his stuff than that of most authors on the national sites. Fortunately for us, here he is, educating us all on Mariners bushers.
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Q. Will ML hitters swing earlier than AAA hitters? So far (in 3 starts), the pitch-per-batter doesn't bear that out.
A. I've been down to Cheney and watched hitters do this to Paxton and Hultzen. When either are struggling, they will stand there with the bats well-and-truly glued to their shoulders.
Perhaps after start #4 tonight against KC, the pitches-per-AB on Paxton have begun to come down as predicted. Or maybe the "high pitches per AB" applies only in "meltdown moments."
I don't know how you measure it -- first pitch swing rate with batters on base? -- but I've seen it happen. How do you measure whether Marshawn Lynch runs into people a lot? I dunno, but if you watch a game, it's obvious. And PCL hitters definitely wait Paxton out.
I think it's probably just the 3-start "sample size" we need to be careful with...
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Q. Nobody can maintain a .147 BABIP. Paxton has gotten lucky.
A. Right ... so if you "normalize" his ERA, what do you get? a 3.09 xFIP, which would be top 10, both leagues.
SABRMatt has calculated that one of the biggest differences between AAA and MLB is --- > the way in which infielders convert ground balls to outs. Paxton is throwing 59% ground balls (!!) and getting 8 K's a game.
Look, kiddies. Show me a pitcher with 8K and 60% grounders, and I'll show you a guy I want on my ballclub.
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Q. Most starters don't do well if they throw 18 pitches per inning! This indicates that Paxton hasn't harnessed his tools into efficient outings.
A. Well, yeah.
He hasn't harnessed his game, and if you're looking for "efficiency" you're looking in the wrong place. Was the rookie Kershaw efficient?
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Q. I want to see a pitcher solve AAA. Then we'll talk about promotion to MLB.
I have a different Paxton narrative:
- I'm concerned about Paxton because he throws too many pitches.
- When a pitcher with great stuff throws too many pitches, it is an indication that he hasn't figured out how to convert "stuff" into outs.
- I group Paxton with Maurer as guys who have yet to figure out harness their tools into efficient outings.
- It is not always productive to push guys with great stuff into an MLB rotation when they haven't yet "figured it out."
- Paxton's first two outings were brilliant, but did they really indicate that he'd "figured it out" going forward?
- See more at: http://seattlesportsinsider.com/article/mild-dissent-james-paxton-0#stha...
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A. Let's talk SABER paradigms vs. SCOUTING paradigms.
Hey, gentlemen, if your paradigm is "I want to see a smooth arc up through AA, AAA, the bullpen, and then the rotation," you aren't alone. :- )
But hitters have different arcs than pitchers do. Pitchers leap plateaus. Yer basic approach is that you are trying to use a hitter-based career arc projection. First he's at 50 feet, then at 100 feet, then at 150 feet, then at 200 and he's ready for MLB... with hitters that is actually true. If a BATTER could not hit in AAA then for sure you would not put him in Safeco.
So even if you wanted to stick with statistics here, Paxton's hardly rule him out as a 2014 rotation candidate. The man walked 3.5 per game, you realize, not 6.0.
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Q. Siiiiigh. OK, you concede our point: the stats do not dicate a promotion. What is the scouting end of it saying, in your view?
A. We owe you a post on Bad Paxton (5 IP, 3 ER vs Detroit) and another one on the KC game.
The question is what Paxton has to do, exactly, to be effective (and that's another post). And how close he is to doing that.
What was going on in Bryce Harper's career, that made anybody think he should be in MLB? He was hitting .243 with a .365 SLG, and then the Nationals called him up at age 19. That wasn't a stats decision; it was a scouting decision.
When the Mariners drafted Taijuan Walker, stats had zero to do with anything. It was 100% a question of visualizing him at the next step in his development.
With James Paxton, I ain't using stats to predict his 2014 season. Point cheerfully conceded. I'm using his pitcher template, and where I think he is within that template. I'm visualizing him at the next step in his development -- which is expedited by Zunino and Willis.
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Good stuff amigos,
Dr D
BABVA,
Dr D
Comments
Kind words BSR. When you say "after a bullpen session," that sounds farfetched to some, but that's what scouts do routinely. We're willing to play the game for fun here on SSI too. It's not unpossible to use the scouting eye to spot the special ones, or at least try to. When Gordon says "this Joe Shlabotnik kid is the real deal" based on seeing a SkySox game, I'd rather get that article, then a handful of one-size-fits-all saber sheets...
And as I recall, Gordon hasn't been lagging at all behind my own giddy assessments, even from that first ST...
As Spec has clarified, he thinks highly of K-Pax also, though likes Hultzen even more...
..............
Yes, those garbage swings he draws... nobody is Randy Johnson but you can see echoes in the swings that Paxton gets sometimes. Maybe Chris Sale :- )
Without really needing to be anybody else. I wasn't trying to say he was Randy, just comparing details of similarity. I know that's all you're really saying with your comparisons too. That said, James Paxton is looking like a man to be all his own.
I am not down on Spec at all and appreciate the work and detail of sharing from everyone here. I don't think right or wrong is really at play in this anyway. The factors listed are all still real concerns, even if there are signs the concerns might be ok to be lessened. I only was thinking "he should be in the rotation" about feeling right at this point when I commented. Meant no disrespect in it either.
I think I had (like Spec), read a "bit" too much into your position.
That said - exactly where one defines "wild" power pitcher in AAA gets very tricky.
I always felt Unit was a poor comp because a 6.5 walk rate just isn't the same kind of issue that a 4.5 walk rate is. So, I actually can see more validity in regards to your original premise ... while simultaneously sticking by my general feeling that the premise really doesn't apply specifically to Paxton.
That said - even "Bad Paxton" outing doesn't do much to suggest K-Pax isn't ready for PRIME time.
4 outings in the Show so far:
Interesting take on "consistency"
BF - Pit - STr - Stl - StS - GB - FB - LD
24 - 95 - 59 --- 19 - 8 ---- 12 -- 8 ---- 5
22 - 97 - 65 --- 18 - 10 --- 8 --- 7 ---- 5
24 - 95 - 56 --- 13 - 7 ---- 7 --- 10 --- 5
24 - 97 - 65 --- 16 - 11 -- 12 -- 2 ---- 0
Same number of batters faced - EXACT same LD count, (except for last nights complete lock-down.
The "bad" outing he was 3 short of matching his total strike count from his first outing. Compare game 1 to game 3 ... he threw THREE (3) extra balls and allowed 3 extra walks. (Note: Two of the walks were intentional)
My view is that Paxton got "a little" lucky in his first two games in that 5 line drives in each game translated into no XBHs, (I'm guessing the HR in game 1 was a FB, not a LD). Then in game three, the same 5 LDs are allowed and it results in 3 doubles.
The "bad" outing, his control seems (statistically) right in line with his first game. He mostly just swapped a couple of groundballs for fly balls.
I look at those 4 games for ANY pitcher - and I'm seeing a pitcher who isn't "consistent" - he is LOCKED IN!
But, you know what *I* see as the #1 prime reason to switch my vote to - "yeah, maybe this kid *IS* ready for the Show!" ...
Tampa
@ St. Louis
@ Detroit
Kansas City
That is 4 straight games against *PLAYOFF CONTENDERS*.
ZERO of his games were against AAA teams that had been promoted for a September look-see.
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Y'know ... for all the back and forth regarding every day players and the concept of clutch (and the fact it really doesn't exist) -- about the only take on PITCHER clutchness I've seen was from your earlier article on the subject -- (Marichal v Blyleven ring any bells?).
My point is - I got to watch John Smoltz and the way HE reacted to the pressure of the playoffs. Maddux and Glavine were the same pitchers in the post-season they were the rest of the time. Very good. But, Smoltz actually responded to pressure.
I remember when they first floated the idea of him as a closer - my response was - "Closer is MADE for neurotics - and Smoltz is a classic case. "You let him get used to the paradigm and he'll probably be as good or better than Eckersly." He ended up getting absolutely shelled in a couple of early outings as a closer, then ended up setting records.
Some kids come up and are nervous - (Maurer) - and it takes a few starts to get beyond the jitters.
Other kids come up and have some early success because nobody has seen their stuff. (and maybe they get a little lucky with what opponents they happen to draw).
When a kid comes up after a tepid AAA season - and he was NOT an "early" call-up that the club pegged as ready - but comes in and basically shuts down four playoff contenders in a row - who are battling for every win - then I'm inclined to believe the kid *IS* responding to the pressure. That to me is evidence that supports the notion of fighting "boredom" in AAA.
Seriously ... if Paxton comes up and fans 12 Astros ... big whoop, (HoRam could fan 12 Astros on a good day). Or maybe he shuts down the Twinkies or ChiSox or Blue Jays in September. (shrug). K-Pax just had his own personal post season series. He went 3-0 and the bullpen lost the 4th. Basically, he just moved into his own personal ALCS, because he just won a pseudo ALDS by himself.
The downside at this point? This is easy. The down side IS John Smoltz. Electric stuff from day one - with an ability to be dominating at any moment - with frustratingly mediocre results, (outside of the playoffs). Go back and look at the Smoltz resume and you'll see double digit LOSSES for 6 straight seasons. His first full season he had a 2.94 ERA, (but only went 12-11). In '92, he had a 2.85 ERA (but only 15-12). He didn't have a dominating SEASON until age 29, (funny thing - that was the age Unit figured it out too ... but I digress). Unlike Felix, Smoltz W/L record wasn't suppressed by horrid offensive support. Smoltzy had plenty of seasons of solid run support.
The risk with Paxton I see is that he turns into *only* John Smoltz, where the aroma of the annual 20-game winner in the window makes the 15-win Pie not quite as sweet.
Sometimes red flags don't matter.
Go, K-Pax!
On the other hand, Hultzen is the kind of wrong I don't want to be.
Doc 2, Spec 0
:-)
That's for sure.
In fact, we all agree that there are red flags, it's just a matter of how much weight we give them.
And I'll try to expound a bit more later.
I will always defer to you guys on statistics and metrics and other SABR evaluations. What I SAW last night was Paxton getting a LOT of low, right at the knees pitches called as strikes. I was pretty surprised that a rookie was getting the borderline strike call - we've all seen umpires make rookies get a whole lot of ball inside the strike zone before the right hand goes up. Especially since his fastball has such a downward plane, and it hits Zunino's glove only a few inches off the ground. I am as pleased as anyone else that he had no walks, but I think we may have to temper our enthusiasm just a tiny bit because I believe (with absolutely nothing to back it up but a pair of 56 year old eyes that have watched a lot of baseball over the years) that he could have easily had four walks with a different umpire. You need only to go back a single game to see the different strike zones called by the home plate ump.
That said... I absolutely want him in the major league rotation next year. Felix, Iwakuma, Taijuan, K-Pax, Erasmo next year? I will be VERY happy not to hear that over the winter that we acquired for 2014 that years' version of Kevin Millwood, Joe Saunders, or Aaron Harang.