Deep Pockets, Bling, and Ego Games
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Reasons the M's Might NOT Close Escrow
I think that everybody on SSI, every single poster, is skeptical about ever seeing a Robinson Cano press conference here. Off site, it's worse, of course.
I'm no different.
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Reason #1 that the M's MIGHT Close Escrow
The Yankees appear to be absolutely resolved about not giving Robinson Cano a deal anywhere near $200 million.
Just for instance, they fought a bitter war with Derek Jeter about money, were totally prepared to lose him, twice. They are now treating Robinson Cano -- in their minds -- more fairly than they treated Jeter. And we both know that Robinson Cano is not Derek Jeter.
He is not comparable to Derek Jeter. In the long history of Yankee icons, Jeter would remain standing if you whittled the line down to six or eight. To cave in further to Cano would widdle all over that relationship that they have with Jeter.
We're not saying that it's unthinkable, exactly, that the Yankees would go over $200M to keep Cano. But you, as an M's fan, should be reasoning that they probably will not.
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Reason #2 that the M's Might Close Escrow
The New York State income tax is 6.85%. The New York City income tax, which is in addition to that, is 8.87%.
I don't know what Robinson Cano has to pay in tax, but he almost certainly has several lawyers working on his New York and other taxes. To be free of New York taxes, if you think that's a small consideration, well, you obviously are not mega-rich.
Neither am I. But I can imagine. ;- )
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Reason #3 that the M's Might Close Escrow
$200M is definitely a trophy figure in the game those people play.
The only thing I ever heard Jack Zduriencik reveal, about the Prince Fielder negotiations, was that Scott Boras guaranteed Jack that he was going to get Prince a contract that started with a 2.
Think about it. Is "Team Jay-Z" going to advertise its intent to get a contract starting with a 3 ... and then slink away with a grovelled hometown discount contract?
Looks to Dr. D like it is about ego now. A Yankee contract would require a serious swallowing of pride. I might believe that Albert Pujols, or Josh Hamilton, or Prince Fielder, would be willing to swallow their pride. I do not believe that Robinson Cano is liable to swallow his pride.
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Reason #4 that the M's Might Close Escrow
$200M is nothing to the M's. ...Well, you know.
They have already offered Josh Hamilton $25M per, for 4 years guaranteed and years 5-6 easily vested. They've already offered Prince Fielder $20M++, for 8 years, at some total value that forced Detroit to go to $214M. When you're talking $200-225M for Robinson Cano, eight or nine years, you're just reprising the Fielder and Hamilton territory.
The one thing here that I really don't get, is the sour grapes saying, "Well, even if the Mariners did somehow get him, they'd have to spend stupid money to do it." Oh. I thought we talking about buying Prince Fielder, minus 100 lbs., plus a set of wheels, plus a coupla-three WAR on him ...
Very few targets can be both a "pipe dream" AND a "nightmare." But I guess Zduriencik pulls it off neatly. Personally, I'm warming to the idea of "sedation."
Sometimes reading the local schtick is like reading the New York Times, rooting against the U.S. in its foreign wars ... :- )
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Reason #5 that the M's Might Close Escrow
Yes, Virginia, there is such a thing as a Keystone Free Agent, the one big splash that puts a franchise on the map, that is remembered in history as the point at which a franchise began to be taken seriously. If the Mariners landed Cano, the domino effects would go beyond the WAR that Cano personally contributed.
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Reason #6 that the M's Might Close Escrow
In New York, they're already making the noises that people make when they've lost. "Now Robby has to decide whether he wants to be a Yankee, or he just wants the money and losing. He has to choose his legacy. Hang on; I've got Sour Grape Whining X, Y, and Z I haven't even touched yet."
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Reason #7 that the M's Might Close Escrow
Sure, an agent might try to use 3rd parties as leverage. M's fans have a tendency to be a little naive about this, however. You'd have to be a pretty rube lawyer not to be able to battle that, and the Mariners are not known for fielding rube lawyers.
If Prince Fielder had never had any intention of coming here, I would expect that Chuck Armstrong would have been able to filter him out early. Fielder and Hamilton went to places that substantially outbid the Mariners, you do realize?
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What do you think, the M's shouldn't take their swings? There may arrive the free agent opportunity that other teams aren't in a position to price-enforce against.
Wouldn't surprise any of us if another team, say Texas, saw the same value situation and swooped. Nobody is saying that Cano is as good as a Mariner. :- )
But they're standing there with a $200M+ checkbook, and the market for Cano looks pretty soft. The fans are scoffing; the Playa's are not.
BABVA,
Dr D