Zduriencik's template … the Tampa Rays?!
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Another fascinating idea that JZ threw out during the Hot Stove broadcast ... that Tampa deploys one real HOF position player, and finds young players to put around him.
This isn't an idea that you'll find on a pure-sabr site, which is limited to the "simple WAR accumulation" paradigm. But it's an idea that you'll consistently find when talking to great baseball architects.
For example, Whitey Herzog used George Brett in KC, and Jack Clark in St. Louis, to anchor ballclubs that he built around pitching. In The White Rat, Whitey revealed that "our entire offense was built around the idea of getting men on base for Jack Clark."
This is controversial, and it's a cognitive dissonance between sabes and baseball people. Give the White Sox one Paul Konerko, and they'll shuffle the pieces around him for a decade, figuring that things will work out okay...
Before Konerko in the '00's, of course, it was Frank Thomas, all through the 1990's. For example, in 1993, they rode Thomas' 1033 OPS to a teamwide 103 OPS+, and when they got their rotation together (Black Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez) they won 94 games and the AL West.
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SSI wrote, many many times, that when Edgar Martinez hit the wall, so did the Seattle Mariner offense. Put an authentic .300/.400/.500 engine at the heart of an order, and every night it seems like you are a threat to beat a good pitcher.
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Can you find a great hitter on a team that doesn't win? Sure.
Do we apply that logic to anything else? "Great defense doesn't matter, because look at the 2013 Cubs. They had the #3 defense in baseball and lost 96 games. Good defense doesn't help you."
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Jack Zduriencik feels like, "Now I've got my own Evan Longoria, and I can fill in around him, and I can get a great rotation together. Just like the Tampa Rays."
Here are BaseballHQ's projections for Robinson Cano versus Evan Longoria next season:
| Infielder | AVG | OBP | SLG | HR | RBI | R | RAR* | RC/27 | EYE |
| Cano | 315 | 379 | 530 | 28 | 107 | 92 | +62 | 7.4 | .68 |
| Longoria | 266 (heh) | 349 | 495 | 32 | 99 | 86 | +34 | 5.9 | .51 |
*RAR = runs above replacement. In terms of runs over RLP, BaseballHQ has Cano as being worth two Evan Longorias.
We won't embarrass Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder by including them... in hindsight, we dodged a bullet not signing them.
Oh, ok... Hamilton, they project for a 5.4 runs per 27 outs, a +15 runs over replacement ... that's four Hamiltons make one Cano. (Actually not, because Cano gets three teammates into the bargain.)
Prince ... 6.7 runs per game, +35 runs over RLP, so it only takes two of him to equal one Cano. (Actually Corey Hart clocks in at +13 runs, so Prince would need a teammate worth +40 runs at second base if he wanted to match Cano and Hart. They don't exist ... well, Pedroia is close, at +38 runs. So Prince and Dustin Pedroia would equal Robinson Cano and a schlub 1B/DH.)
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Want to take this one step further ...
Cano and Kyle Seager, 3B are projected to +78 runs over RLP, since Seager is a +16.
Since Longoria is at +34, he needs a +45 runs teammate at 2B to win the Player Pair comp. Best we can do is the +38'er in Boston.
Oh yeah, St. Looie has a second baseman ... nope. 36 runs, says Ron. Zduriencik scored you a 2B who, by this particular measure, is worth almost two of the other elite second basemen...
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Quibble about WAR vs RAR vs whatever. Fact is, it's pretty blinkin' tough for people to win Player Pair comps with Robinson Cano. He's George Brett playing a Gold Glove second base.
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Hopefully you guys will pursue these team comps further ... the only thing I'll start with here, is that the Rays have had average-to-good offenses, not great offenses:
| Season | Wins | OPS+ | Best Hitters with Longoria | |
| 2013 | 92 | 107 | Loney, Myers | |
| 2012 | 90 | 99 | Zobrist, Joyce, B.J. Upton | |
| 2011 | 91 | 104 | Kotchman (heh), Joyce, Zobrist | |
| 2010 | 96 | 105 | Crawford, John Jaso, B.J. Upton |
The Rays, seriously, have NOT had much name value in the lineup other than Evan Longoria - Longoria does NOT get a bash brother to work with, a la Manny/Ortiz or Cabrera/Prince or Braun/Prince.
What they have had, is decent performance 7 and 8 hitters deep. In 2013, every starter except the catcher had an OPS+ of 97+. (Although 2013 was a big offensive year in Tampa.)
Tampa as the model. Looks like Zduriencik is on to something there. Now, if he can only pry David Price loose, then ...