Zduriencik's template … the Tampa Rays?!
Robinson Cano vs Evan Longoria

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Another fascinating idea that JZ threw out during the Hot Stove broadcast ... that Tampa deploys one real HOF position player, and finds young players to put around him.

This isn't an idea that you'll find on a pure-sabr site, which is limited to the "simple WAR accumulation" paradigm.  But it's an idea that you'll consistently find when talking to great baseball architects.  

For example, Whitey Herzog used George Brett in KC, and Jack Clark in St. Louis, to anchor ballclubs that he built around pitching.  In The White Rat, Whitey revealed that "our entire offense was built around the idea of getting men on base for Jack Clark."

This is controversial, and it's a cognitive dissonance between sabes and baseball people.  Give the White Sox one Paul Konerko, and they'll shuffle the pieces around him for a decade, figuring that things will work out okay...

Before Konerko in the '00's, of course, it was Frank Thomas, all through the 1990's.  For example, in 1993, they rode Thomas' 1033 OPS to a teamwide 103 OPS+, and when they got their rotation together (Black Jack McDowell, Alex Fernandez, Wilson Alvarez) they won 94 games and the AL West.

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SSI wrote, many many times, that when Edgar Martinez hit the wall, so did the Seattle Mariner offense.  Put an authentic .300/.400/.500 engine at the heart of an order, and every night it seems like you are a threat to beat a good pitcher.

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Can you find a great hitter on a team that doesn't win?  Sure.  

Do we apply that logic to anything else?  "Great defense doesn't matter, because look at the 2013 Cubs.  They had the #3 defense in baseball and lost 96 games.  Good defense doesn't help you."

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Jack Zduriencik feels like, "Now I've got my own Evan Longoria, and I can fill in around him, and I can get a great rotation together.  Just like the Tampa Rays."

Here are BaseballHQ's projections for Robinson Cano versus Evan Longoria next season:

Infielder AVG OBP SLG HR RBI R RAR* RC/27 EYE
Cano 315 379 530 28 107 92 +62 7.4 .68
Longoria 266 (heh) 349 495 32 99 86 +34 5.9 .51

*RAR = runs above replacement.   In terms of runs over RLP, BaseballHQ has Cano as being worth two Evan Longorias.

We won't embarrass Josh Hamilton or Prince Fielder by including them... in hindsight, we dodged a bullet not signing them.   

Oh, ok... Hamilton, they project for a 5.4 runs per 27 outs, a +15 runs over replacement ... that's four Hamiltons make one Cano.  (Actually not, because Cano gets three teammates into the bargain.)

Prince ... 6.7 runs per game, +35 runs over RLP, so it only takes two of him to equal one Cano.  (Actually Corey Hart clocks in at +13 runs, so Prince would need a teammate worth +40 runs at second base if he wanted to match Cano and Hart.   They don't exist ... well, Pedroia is close, at +38 runs.  So Prince and Dustin Pedroia would equal Robinson Cano and a schlub 1B/DH.)

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Want to take this one step further ... 

Cano and Kyle Seager, 3B are projected to +78 runs over RLP, since Seager is a +16.

Since Longoria is at +34, he needs a +45 runs teammate at 2B to win the Player Pair comp.  Best we can do is the +38'er in Boston.

Oh yeah, St. Looie has a second baseman ... nope.  36 runs, says Ron.  Zduriencik scored you a 2B who, by this particular measure, is worth almost two of the other elite second basemen...

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Quibble about WAR vs RAR vs whatever.  Fact is, it's pretty blinkin' tough for people to win Player Pair comps with Robinson Cano.  He's George Brett playing a Gold Glove second base.

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Hopefully you guys will pursue these team comps further ... the only thing I'll start with here, is that the Rays have had average-to-good offenses, not great offenses:

Season Wins OPS+ Best Hitters with Longoria  
2013 92 107 Loney, Myers  
2012 90 99 Zobrist, Joyce, B.J. Upton  
2011 91 104 Kotchman (heh), Joyce, Zobrist  
2010 96 105 Crawford, John Jaso, B.J. Upton  

The Rays, seriously, have NOT had much name value in the lineup other than Evan Longoria - Longoria does NOT get a bash brother to work with, a la Manny/Ortiz or Cabrera/Prince or Braun/Prince.

What they have had, is decent performance 7 and 8 hitters deep.  In 2013, every starter except the catcher had an OPS+ of 97+.  (Although 2013 was a big offensive year in Tampa.)

Tampa as the model.  Looks like Zduriencik is on to something there.  Now, if he can only pry David Price loose, then ...

 

Comments

1

The Rays Template includes progressive field management under Joe Maddon, including extensive use of: 1) defensive shifts, 2) LH/RH player platoons, 3) late game defensive replacements, 4) changes in line-up order to maximize hitting advantages, 5) advanced defensive catching metrics, 6) bullpen management to maximize LH/RH advantages, etc.
Contrast this approach to Dark Age approach of the M's Field Management the last 3 years. If GMZ wants to model his team after the Rays, his Field Management group needs to copy Maddon's approach.

2

In 2008 (Madden's third year, Longoria's first) the Rays suddenly got good, and they've stayed competitive and good in a very tough division. They made the postseason 4 out of 6 years. However, they made it to the World Series that first year, and sometimes I think that set a highly visible association that is belied by their record since then. Since 2008 they have not made it back to the World Series. They have not even made it back to the LCS, and they lost all their three League Division series. Don't get me wrong. I admire the heck out of Madden and that franchise. But if we're using them as a template, one could argue that the template leaves us competitive but a perennial second fiddle to the Big Boys.

3

In each of those years Longoria had another guy (or two) OPS+-ing over 130 to help him along. one in '13 and '12, two in '11 (and another at 127) and two more in '10. We haven't had any player above 125 in that time. Carp, in parttime '11 duty, was at 125 and Raul and Kendrys were both at 123 last year. Find another consistent 130-ish bat and we're getting into the TB template. Who is our Zobrist and who is our Joyce?

4

Like you say, Stars and Scrubs, baby. I have argued for years that small market teams can simplify matters thusly: Go and pay what it takes to get yourself a stud #1 starter (loosely defined as someone who gives you 200 plus innings of 3.00 or sub ERA) and a stud hitter (.900 or above OPS). Pay the $50 million or more per season on these two, and fill in the rest with whatever money you have left. You will be hard pressed to find any team in history that had these two qualities from full time players and finished under .500.
With the signing of Cano, the Mariners have FINALLY done just this. It wasn't easy - Felix has been there, but until Cano there has been no ability to grab the other half of my recipe for success. Cano is on the lower end of the .900 mark (better to get someone who can flirt with 1.00), but he'll do.
With Felix and Cano, we are a winning ballclub. The rest determine how much winning we will do, but with the long term signing of Felix and now Cano, history suggests our winning is all but assured.

5
Lonnie of MC's picture

...the more I'm convinced that the 2014 Mariners look a lot like the 90's New York Yankers. In those years the Yankers brought up out of their system a young Bernie Williams ('91), Jorge Posada ('95), Derek Jeter ('95), Andy Pettitte ('95), and Mariano Rivera ('95), and supplemented them with some solid FA acquisitions and had a great run of success. Look at them now that they have tried to maintain that high level of performance strictly from the FA market. They are on the verge of a complete system reboot.
Anyway, it will be interesting to see how the rest of the team reacts to Cano, Hart, Morrison, and Bloomquist. Add in a vet FA starting pitcher, or Tanaka, and we could see something special in 2014.

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