November 2013
You can run, but you can't hide… in your own head, anyway
Posted by jemanji on 11/30/13
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Value of the Hermann Model
Rick, who is the editor of a biology journal, tells us that his company is --- > spending a lot of time and money, to --- > teach its employees how to communicate with fellow employees who come from different "learning quadrants." Lots of companies do this now.
Here's a real good slide show on it, will give you a feel for it in a couple of minutes.
Let's say that you have one boss who is coming from an extreme area of the Top Left quadrant ... say, a saber blogger type :- ) ... and he is trying to talk to a "critical resource" ace salesman who comes from... Read More
Overrated and Underrated, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/13
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9 Comments
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For those who are squeamish about Nelson Cruz' WAR ... or Curtis Granderson's K's and defense ... or Shin-Soo Choo's lefthandedness ... Mike Napoli offers a different kind of squeem.
Napoli gives you, basically, what Curtis Granderson does in the batter's box -- .250 with 180 PX (power index). Except he does it from the right side.
True, he doesn't play in the middle of the field, but on the other hand he is much more solid at the plate. He averages 73 walks per 162 games, and the solidness goes far, far beyond simple BB rate. Here is the start of our 5-part series from last winter. ... Read More
Grand designs, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/27/13
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Mo' Dawg called for our guesstimations, as to the market trend for Granderson.
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POTD
Here is that four-part series on the lad. The Exec Sum is that Granderson:
Has chosen to become a hacker -- a .240 hitter with 35-40 homers (cf Carlos Quentin, Chris Davis, Edwin Encarnacion, now Josh Hamilton)
Is a legit 175-190 PX guy (very elite)
Plays mediocre-to-dubious CF ... which would be okay with Taijuan and K-Pax in there
Gives you a "hard" 3.0 to 4.0 WAR (has done it for 160 games, in batter's box, in postseason, etc)
Scores a lot of runs too
The M's have indicated that they want two (2)... Read More
Best Athlete Available, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/27/13
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3 Comments
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LH vs RH
Dr. D doesn't personally hold with the notion that the M's need to make huge FA decisions based on platoon splits.
Left-handedness or right-handedness, in a team's lineup, those tendencies morph very quickly. Supposing, just for argument's sake, that Mike Zunino is a pleasant surprise in 2014 and becomes your best hitter. Boom, your needs have changed and now you've just compromised on TWO (2) major free agents based on a need that isn't there any more.
Not Zunino? How about D.J. Peterson becoming even more of a hitter than expected? Or supposing Justin Smoak clicks against RHP... Read More
True But Not Accurate, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/13
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11 Comments
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Q. Should we "project" the 2014 M's rotation to be roughly comparable to the one in 2013?
A. Shannon Drayer, bless her heart, floated the thought that the M's rotation could be -100 runs better next year. If I'd been her I might have rephrased that thought (if I'd offered it) to say that the M's pitching could be -100 runs better.
The response, in the blog-o-sphere, was that:
Taijuan and K-Pax might do okay in 2014
If so, this is bound to be better than the 'dreadful' Back of Rotation (BOR) in 2013
BUT! Felix and WBC-san should be presumed to regress significantly
So it largely offsets... Read More
No, not THAT Jay-Z
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/13
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6 Comments
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Start with the understanding that --- > Dr. D would not be particularly eager to have Robinson Cano on his baseball team.
There are a few things that just scrape me the wrong way about him.
For example, Dustin Pedroia is 90% of the player, that being the same player, and Pedroia is signed for life at $14M a season or something.
For instance, I could name you a hundred guys who hit .300/.360/.500 and who stopped playing well at exactly age 31. I'll name you one for free: Mike Sweeney, KC.
For example, I resent this "set a record" thing on his contract. He's got Jay-Z selling him... Read More
It's now Zduriencik's team
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/13
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9 Comments
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For those who just joined us, Dr. D has never owned a Fortune 500 company. Neither has he ever run one. Neither has he ever worn even a senior manager badge within the halls of one. Neither has security ever come and escorted him out of the halls of one, no thanks to a few managers who'd have liked to have seen it ...
What he has done, however, is chair (a whale of a lot of) steering committees for them, and worked with senior executives, reallllly senior executives. You spend two years in Portugal, you probably speak some Portugese. Dr. D, during his travails on the 7th floors of F-500... Read More
Some things, they can never take away from you
Posted by jemanji on 11/25/13
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3 Comments
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Ask an member of the general public, what comes to your mind when you think of Veteran’s Day?, and you’ll hear a lot of different things:
“Mattress and sofa blowout day?”
“That’s when you stop wearing summer colors, right.”
“If you know somebody in uniform, you thank her for her service.”
“A day off, and big sales at the mall.” (These are actual responses we googled up.)
“That’s when you visit the graves of veterans who died for their country.” (Actually, that one is Memorial Day.)
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Veteran's Day was originally called Armistice Day. It was the end of World War One,... Read More
Game of Thrones - release the Hound
Posted by Gordon Gross on 11/25/13
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There's talk in the shouts about Cano, since it's the offseason so pipe dreams are a way to pass the time until dull reality strikes. Let's forget for a second that Cano has Jay-Z representing him, and I have trouble believing Cano would come to sleepy Seattle no matter the price or the supporting cast.
Let's say he would come if he got the contract in the neighborhood of what he wants (30 per for 7 seven years, opt out after 3 or some such), and we would have to make a choice: plunk down the change, or let it ride with the kids and some lesser lights added via trade or FA.
As was said... Read More
Grist for the mill ...
Posted by Spectator on 11/22/13
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OK, here's some quick hits and crunch in the manner of Dr. D.
Brian Wilson
The Red Sox pretty much took away the whole "fear the beard" business, so what's the point?
Not really.
The real question is "is he back"?
All we know for sure is that he faced 49 batters in the regular season and then 24 more in the playoffs, and in that small amout of results, everything looked just like it did before.
Other than a slightly high BB% throughout, Wilson has shown everything you want in a late-inning guy. Lots of strikeouts, and he doesn't hurt himself: super-low HR/9; super-low ISO-against.
They... Read More
Danny Kelly's .gifs are sweet. Like ice cream.
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/13
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9 Comments
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I/O: Field Gulls points out that Russell Wilson's QB rating, last game, was 150+. And it's 120+ since the Cardinals.
CRUNCH: Earlier in the week, we suggested that the Seahawks' passing attack might overrule Pete Carroll's natural conservatism. I wasn't really talking about Lynch's odometer, though that could factor also. The point is, if your passing attack is at 120-150, it's going to force you to use it.
If you're down 14-21 to the Saints, and you know you can move the ball by throwing it, you're going to throw out what you like, and do what you need to...
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C.S. Lewis once... Read More
No hypocrisy here, babe
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/13
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3 Comments
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Chris Berman is a naturally positive, optimistic, likeable individual. I once read an interview of The Fabulous Sports Babe, asking her who she liked in the world, and as I recall she came up with one name. She thought Chris Berman, as a person, was awesome.
Boomer gave a memorable TV interview one time, which attempted to bait him into trash talk. He ran through the line like Marshawn Lynch on 2nd-and-6. "Two things that I love about America: the price of a newspaper, and the cost of a postage stamp. When I'm in the airport, I'll always pick up three or four newspapers. And would... Read More
Are we Pirates, or Tigers?
Posted by Gordon Gross on 11/21/13
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Apparently the Pirates are a thing. If you stink long enough, the hope is that you acquire enough talent to become good again. The Pirates spend a LONG time trying to screw up that theory, but it looks like they've finally gotten near the top of that mountain, which is great news for their long-suffering fans. When you're suffering as a franchise you'd like to point to a success story. The Royals aren't one yet (and if some of their kids don't step it up they'll have trouble reaching that peak) but the Pirates seem to have made it - and are being rightfully celebrated for it. It was a... Read More
The missing man in M's system rankings
Posted by Gordon Gross on 11/21/13
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This is really starting to bug me.
MLB.com midseason-top 20 prospect list: no ChoiProspect Insider top 20: no ChoiFangraphs top 15 for 2014: no Choi
Marc Hulet at Fangraphs, who's work I'm generally a fan of, explains thusly:
I grade first basemen and relievers the toughest when doing these lists. Choi doesn’t have the impact power you look for from a 1B. His good statistical results have come in A-ball so take them with a grain of salt. He also missed 2010 with back problems and they have a tendency to re-surface.
That's something I can't really agree with. Let me clear this up for you... Read More
Quick launch with slow through speed
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/13
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3 Comments
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I've said, many times, that when it comes to these kind of prospects ...
In the Mariner org
Not nationally well-known
... that I'd rather have Gordon's and Spectator's evaluations, than anybody else's on the internet.
So it's weird-and-wonderful that everybody else on the internet dismisses Ji-Man Choi as no prospect*, and our guys tell us that Choi is absolutely the M's best prospect with the possible exception of D.J. Peterson.
How could you have that much of a disconnect? It's partially explained by the fact that people want power from a first baseman. But as G points out, that... Read More
TEJAS!, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/13
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5 Comments
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The White House has a website up. (Not that website!) It allows citizens to file petitions, and if one gathers 25,000 signatures, the White House issues a formal response.
There's a petition for Texas to secede from the union. That petition has, I think, 102,000 signatures. (There's another petition to deport anybody who signs a petition to secede from the union.)
I wish I wuz from Texas.
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No sooner did we opine that Detroit was "desperate" to offload Fielder -- due to Cabrera's legs -- than they completed a deal that must have been weeks in the making. We had speculated further... Read More
Four types of deals, four outcomes
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/13
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2 Comments
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Red Sox - Dodgers MegaDeal
This from Ken Rosenthal a few months back:
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The Dodgers acquired Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford, Josh Beckettand Nick Punto for James Loney, Ivan De Jesus Jr.,Allen Webster and two players to be named later, which turnd out to beRubby De La Rosa and Jerry Sands.
The thing I still don’t get — the thing that has yet to be fully explained — is why the Dodgers took on all but $11 million of the $275.69 million guaranteed the players they acquired.
If the Dodgers had said, “Sorry, we want $100 million, not $11 million, especially when we’re also giving you four... Read More
do not relinquish
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/13
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4 Comments
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In the Shout Box, our SSI bleacher section (341, boys, see you there) laments the fact that blogs are constructing 9,000 trades of James Paxton.
Lemme say in the most good-humored way possible :- ) that, usually, this occurs when a pundit has misfired with his skepticism. When Michael Pineda went nuts in the American League, the blog-o-sphere showered a blizzard of trade suggestions on us.
Yes, gentlemen, James Paxton is about to HEAVILY embarrass those who failed to buy in. But hey. It's the best kinda embarrassment there is. Would that Tom Wilhelmsen embarrassed Dr. D as much.
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In... Read More
Threat is stronger than the execution, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/13
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12 Comments
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True dat: data makes your content objectively stronger than your opinion. But subjectively? Is it stats that change the world, or is it Hollywood? How many stats were there in Maureen Dowd's latest column?
Math is great. Verbal idea transfer is greater. Proof is critical; persuasion is vital. Both are important. One's more important than the other. We're people, not machines, and proof -- the final word on an issue -- is a lot more uncommon than we tend to realize.
Dr. D knows a few b'wanas who tend to confuse the two things. ;- ) Knowing the difference is a tremendous competitive... Read More
Hey, it ain't ME who's crazy here
Posted by jemanji on 11/19/13
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5 Comments
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"I had a dream last night. Jim was in a hotel I co-own with Satan. Check-in time immediate. Checkout time NEVER." - Dwight Schrute
"So in your own FANTASY. You don't own the hotel?" - Jim Halpert
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Steve Adams at MLB Trade Rumors was pretty impressive on Tuesday. Seems that he has systematically memorized the needs of all 30 teams, as well as the situations of the top 50-100 free agents. Guy must do it for a living.
This snippet was interesting:
Comment From Alex
Potential haul for Max Scherzer (you pick the team)
2:23
Steve Adams:
Couple of... Read More
Super year-end inventory reduction sale! (maybe)
Posted by Spectator on 11/19/13
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The Dodgers might have the priciest outfield in the game (I didn't actually research it), but their come-from-behind division title was mostly fueled by the cheapest member -- Yasiel Puig, who wasn't even on the Opening Day roster.
As a result, there is widespread expectation that one of the incumbents will be offloaded.
So ... pull up a chair [as Vin Scully would still say] and let's see what's up here.
Age
2013 OPS+
2013 wOBA
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Carl Crawford
32
108
0.322
$20.25M
$20.5M
$20.75M
$21M
FA
Andre Ethier
32
122
0.340
$15.5M
$18M
$18M
$17.5M
$17.5M*
FA
... Read More
Dexta-plane banks 45 degrees, heads NW?
Posted by jemanji on 11/18/13
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10 Comments
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I'm not his biggest fan, but ... vis-a-vis Jacoby Ellsbury? Fowler has scored 91 runs per 162 games in his career, and last year that was 97 runs per 162. Going forward it might well be 100-110 per 162.
More to the point, you save $15-20M a year in salary. So it's like [Fowler-and-Choo] vs [Ellsbury]. In that event, he's worth a simoleon.
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The Spect-O-Meter already triangulated Fowler for us. Here is the exec sum of what Spec has on him:
Spec is partial to 2B+BB hitters --- > which Dexter Fowler most soit-ain-ly is
He has been hitting HR's. Disregard those, which won't... Read More
can you throw in Stephen Drew, Santa?
Posted by jemanji on 11/18/13
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5 Comments
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Q. Does Dr. D believe that the M's are even going to try to acquire four Stars?
A. On some things, We The SSI People hold these truths to be self-evident:
... we can "emotionally invest" in a Mariners team at such time as they are 10-1 and have just added Percy Harvin.
... If and when the Mariners DO acquire a Star, it will be 100% within their "comfort zone."
... The Mariners would like to win, but it's all gravy, since they already kept the team in Seattle.
... etc.
*M's supposedly wouldn't protest if they onloaded "a #2 starter to slot behind Felix." Well, a guy who slots... Read More
… while we're talking about prospects-for-MOTO deals
Posted by jemanji on 11/17/13
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18 Comments
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I/O: Gordon, in June, compared him to Edgar Martinez. With caveats. Opined that D.J. "should" settle in as a Butler / Youkilis level producer in the big leagues.
Crunch: Far be it from Dr. D to kibitz Gordon on a pre-majors ballplayer. Might as well kibitz Yasser Seirawan on a Bishop-vs-Knight ending.
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I/O: Baseballheatmaps, in March, said that D.J. was "by far" the best college player they had seen. They agreed with Gordon as to his Edgar-like hitting style.
Crunch: It'll take you 60 seconds to scan the article, if you haven't seen it yet. Three big images and a coupla bullet... Read More
Just pretend you didn't see the "HR" column
Posted by Spectator on 11/16/13
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If you followed my minor-league analysis at all, you may know that I would bet on a doubles-and-walks guy (Kyle Seager, Brad Miller, Chris Taylor) over a homers-and-strikeouts guy (Casper Wells, Alex Liddi, Carlos Peguero).
Dexter Fowler, it turns out, is a doubles-and-walks guy.
It's just that, unfortunately (or fortunately, if you are dependent on Fowler's economic status), Fowler managed to reach double-digit home run totals in each of the past two years. That feat does, in fact, appear to be a combination of playing at altitude in Colorado, and a few fortunate plate outcomes on the... Read More
Managerial Resume Section #1 - Leader of Men
Posted by jemanji on 11/15/13
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2 Comments
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And Now For Something Completely Different, dept.
Geoff Baker has a lively article up on new M's manager Lloyd McClendon. Geoff has the guts, as he always does, to discuss the fact that McClendon is black, and how this could affect his managing the M's.
Everything you read about McClendon has the same flavor to it. He reminds me, very much, of my daughter's phlebotomy teacher.
I offer my own take on this below. As Monty Python would say, if this type of material offends you then ... Don't. Watch.
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There are three schools of thought on MLB... Read More
He IS a slugger
Posted by Spectator on 11/15/13
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Unlike Jhonny Peralta, Nelson Cruz is an above-average offensive contributor.
That being said, pretty much the entirety of his value comes from his ability to hit the ball hard.
And he is very good at that:
/*-->*/
/*-->*/
HR/PA
XBH/PA
ISO
Cruz
4.9%
10.6%
0.228
MLB Average (during Cruz career)
2.6%
7.8%
0.148
Problem is, he's not really good at anything else. He swiped a few bags back in his 20s, but it doesn't look like he'll be doing that in his mid-30s.
***
That being said ... do not underestimate the value of hitting home runs in more than 4% of plate appearances. That is... Read More
That's not a bad thing (and the main idea seems to be setting up a Franklin trade?)
Posted by Spectator on 11/14/13
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The remarkable thing about Jhonny Peralta is how almost everything about his offensive output is amazingly average.
Sure, his batting average will fluctuate based on BABIP, and his power will fluctuate based on HR/FB, but, for the most part, he's just pretty much right there in the middle.
/*-->*/
/*-->*/
HR/PA
K/PA
BB/PA
XBH/PA
XBH/H
K/BB
GB/FB
LD%
HR/FB
Peralta (11 years)
2.8%
20.4%
8.4%
8.3%
35%
2.44
0.78
20%
7.6%
MLB Average
2.7%
17.8%
8.4%
7.8%
34%
2.12
0.80
19%
7.7%
And where does his career OPS+ end up? 101. Almost right there on the nose.
Now ... not that there's... Read More
Here are his 41* homers last year, kiddies
Posted by jemanji on 11/14/13
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6 Comments
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Q. Does anybody like the idea of Nelson Cruz?
A. The Mariners like the idea. In fact, it's gaining traction.
As is the idea that the Mariners have more, not less, information than we do.
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Q. "If you can't explain something simply, you don't understand it well enough." Explain, very simply, why the Seattle internet thinks of Nelson Cruz as something brown and unpleasant.
A. People think of HR and RBI as "irrelevant."
GM's do not.
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Q. Shouldn't we scoff at RBI? In what way is it a repeatable skill?
A. Actual GM's pay much, much more for RBI than Fangraphs would. And actual GM's... Read More
For us at SSI, every day is a no-brainer
Posted by jemanji on 11/14/13
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5 Comments
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Peralta rumors were received in Seattle about as well as a Stephen Pryor rib injury. As you know, Dr. D lives to serve. He likes to search for those light bulbs that the blog-o-sphere does not yet have on.
Apparently it does not yet have on the light bulb that says "Jhonny Peralta has as many WAR, the last three years, as does Giancarlo Stanton." And Joe Mauer, and Justin Upton, and a lot of guys like that.
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PRO
Career batting line = 270/335/425 = American League slash line, exactly
At shortstop, that's quite good, so ...
... WAR is 3.7 per year, last three years
Hits lefties very well... Read More
Baseball is about the strike zone, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/14/13
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Bill James Online -- subscribe here -- has become a kind of market parody: it discounts its market price by 70-90%, it is (arguably) the best baseball site online, and it (inarguably) fills a niche. As opposed to what all the stats-aggregate and team-blogging sites do. Quite apart from any local undercurrent that attaches to the question, does anybody have any idea why this man charges $3 a month?! How many of his subscribers would bail out at $5?
I would pay $20 a month for Hey Bill alone. Anyway, today's light bulb:
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Hey Bill, I live in Cincinnati and root for the Reds, but when I... Read More
One born out of time, Dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/13
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8 Comments
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Q. Who were the two very best players ever to be traded as minor leaguers?
A. One of them was David Ortiz, traded of course by the Chuck Armstrong administration. See the note after the signoff.
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Q. How old is Ortiz?
A. He was 37 last year. Have you seen his slash lines at ages 36 and 37? He's still every blinkin' inch a (left hand) Manny Ramirez. He keeps his weight down, he's got a chance to be Raul Ibanez...
This could be relevant to our peanut-crackin' bleacher-bum chatter about Carlos Beltran, or might not be. I remember three or four years ago, the Red Sox gave Ortiz a 2-... Read More
tongue in cheek, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/13
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4 Comments
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Q. Why a post about blogging itself?
A. The nature of information exchange?
Some websites post a READ THIS in the sidebar that strictly warns you: avoid typing "LOL." No offense, homies. ;- ) Some websites like statements of philosophy. Some occasionally take a minute, to seek buy-in, as to their emphasis on "scannability."
Attention span, five years ago, was absolutely everything in America. Nowadays it's a lot more important than that.
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Q. What is the WORST thing about trying to play "Good Cop, Bad Cop" ... with one cop?
A. Jim Tracy used to do this with the LA media, and... Read More
Next up: Three Posts for a DiamondVision Mention …...
Posted by jemanji on 11/13/13
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2 Comments
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We've been debating the orientation, or not, of the M's saber inclinations. (Not that kind of orientation!) Jeff Sullivan has an article up in which he, ever-so-gently, advises the lynch mob that it might want to get some facts before it tosses its torches onto the thatch roof.
He links us to this Colin O'Keefe interview of Jesse Smith. The blog-o-sphere has debated whether Eric Wedge, let alone Jack Zduriencik, were oblivious to all the state-of-the-art data that is as free as water to threm. O'Keefe's sparkling interview will put "PAID" to the issue. Not the existence of the... Read More
Kendrys Games
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/13
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6 Comments
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M-Pops' question was so "Hey Bill"-like that we couldn't resist. We'll do a mini-impersonation of the Great Man in Hey Bill style. Indulge us?
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Hey Doc. Kendrys Games: How much more valuable is Beltran at 3/$45 than Kendrys at 3/$24? Which would you rather have?
Asked by: M-Pops
Answered: 11/13/13
...
$15M might be the high end for Beltran, and $8M the low end for Morales. So the question is edited against Beltran, a little bit, in the salaries given.
...
To a team operating 25 drone players, those would be two reasonable, and different, approaches to filling the same need. ... Read More
Spectator? Cheap at twice the price
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/13
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2 Comments
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Take out a #2 pencil and a clean sheet of paper, kiddies. Pop quiz!
Spectator's patented Rick Rolls have served the purpose of:
Bringing back into fashion an obsolete first name, and thereby gratifying our resident biology editor
Providing Dr. D a "target-rich" kibitzing environment
Bringing "the man in the virtual street" up to, um, past Jason Churchill's erudition level
Underlining the fact that he needs to figure out his PayPal widget, instanter
None of the above
All of the above
...
First big game we'll poach, then: the star of his outfield Rick Roll, that being Jabari Blash.
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The... Read More
Never gonna tell a lie: Blash and Wilson get this list rolling
Posted by Spectator on 11/12/13
Posted to blog
Starting pitchers: here.
Relief pitchers: here.
Catchers: here.
Corner infielders/DH: here.
Middle infielders: here.
And the final act is in the outfield, and the possibility that sluggers are emerging?
2014 age
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Thumbnail commentary
Michael Saunders
27
LH
Arb1
Arb2
Arb3
FA
Yes, for now, Saunders is the dean of the Mariners OF. He has more service time than any Mariner on the current roster except Felix. [!] There will be other names here eventually. Will they start with "Jacoby" or "Shin-soo" or something else? We'll see.
Dustin Ackley
26
LH
PreArb3... Read More
Beltran contemplates the Tao of being PAID to LOSE
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/13
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8 Comments
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This from MLBTradeRumors:
The Mariners have money to spend and a need for offense. Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that the team could be aggressive on free agents Jhonny Peralta,Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli. The latest:
The Mariners' reported interest in Jacoby Ellsbury may be overblown, hears ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Crasnick wrote earlier than the Ms are more immersed in the Carlos Beltran/Peralta/Kendrys Morales market than in Ellsbury's. The Mariners would like to find a way to add Cruz and Beltran, tweets Crasnick. If they are to pull that off, it could be... Read More
Not that a postseason introduction line means much
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/13
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2 Comments
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It's tedious to do anything too repetitively. Charles Barkley famously rebuked the NBA for scheduling back-to-back-to-back games: "I don't even like to have sex three nights in a row."
Not every post is "objective analysis," LrKrBoi29. That would be tedious.
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Beltran wants "three-plus" years. Without making this a "study" as to the Return On Investment (ROI), let's first ask whether this idea is worthy of consideration in the first place. Obviously, Beltran could hit the wall in 2014; that's stating the obvious. Let's noodle around for a moment, asking whether he could play well... Read More
Whereas the M's favor .38 special revolvers
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/13
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1 Comments
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In the Dr. D household, we've had our own little mini-taunt battles.
Dr. D Junior, and Mrs. Dr. D, have been trying to sell him that the Seahawks receivers are really good, man. Dr. D does not even bother with pointing to the yardage totals; that would be too easy. Instead it's like "Man, Dad! Look at that CATCH by Tate!" to which he buys in for a moment ... yeah, man, that really was sweet. And he had another one like that earlier! "That's what I've been telling you!" All the way with Golden Tate. Two big catches already. I'm comin' around.
... two catches ... setting his career... Read More
What if Bob Gibson came up with the M's?
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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This Week in Hey Bill:
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If Bob Gibson were to come up today, would his team try to force him to "clean up" his delivery? Is there a chance that he might have been even better with a more conventional motion? Of course there's always a chance and my questions are very speculative. But I know that you've advocated more open-mindedness about unconventional mechanics, and I just wondered what your thoughts might be. Thanks.
Asked by: stevemillburg
Answered: 11/8/2013
Absolutely they would have tried to clean up his delivery--and would have forced him to adapt to a conventional... Read More
Destiny, dept.
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/13
Posted to blog
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DAD: Hey, John. Check this out. Here's a CBS list of 25 reasons football is better than baseball.
JOHN: :: shrugs :: ["what's next? A list of 25 reasons that three-on-three hoops is better than plunging the toilet? Okay, just gimme number 22.]
DAD: What would be your reason?
JOHN: What?! There's always something HAPPENING in football.
DAD: What do you mean. Felix striking out the side is nothing happening?
JOHN: :: rolls eyes :: They never score in baseball. Three outs, next inning. Three outs, next inning. When somebody does hit a home run, you didn't know it was going to... Read More
And the 25th is the best
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/13
Posted to blog
15 Comments
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It's a funny thing about sports: You can pick it up, or put it down.
I got all wayyyyy into the Arsenal Gunners - Manchester United Red Devils matchup yesterday. I turned on the DVR, and they kicked the ball off, and it was all downhill from there. My remedy was simple. I fast-forwarded, confirmed the loss, and then [until right this moment] vaporized soccer from my existence.
It's one of my most valuable life tricks, seriously. I just switch my realities when it comes to entertainment. One isn't working, just "cancel" it like La Femme Nikita sneaking up behind a baddie from Red... Read More
Never gonna hurt you up the middle ...
Posted by Spectator on 11/08/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
Starting pitchers: here.
Relief pitchers: here.
Catchers: here.
Corner infielders/DH: here.
Now: middle infielders.
2014 age
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Thumbnail commentary
Dustin Ackley
26
LH
PreArb3
Arb1
Arb2
Arb3
FA
Is he on this list or the OF list? Or trade bait? We don't know, but we know this: the direction he's going is a plate-skills-only guy with minimal ISO. That's fine if he brings defensive value at 2b or CF, and there's room for him one place or the other. Former seems true. Latter might not be.
Brad Miller
24
LH
PreArb1
PreArb2
PreArb3
Arb1
Arb2
Arb3
FA
A... Read More
Never gonna give up a qualifying offer?
Posted by Spectator on 11/07/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
Starting pitchers: here.
Relief pitchers: here.
Catchers: here.
And now corner infielders/DH.
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2014 age
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Thumbnail commentary
Kendrys Morales
31
SH
FA ($14.1M qual. offer)
FA
It says here the "QO" was a no-brainer. Producing a ton of XBH with a below-average K% is a key point for me, and only Morales and Seager did it. Also, you can't replace someone with no one.
Justin Smoak
27
SH
Arb1
Arb2
Arb3
FA
20 HR and 64 BB -- finally the Smoak we were hoping for, right? Kind of. Only 19 doubles, and what might be a... Read More
Won't desert you behind the plate
Posted by Spectator on 11/06/13
Posted to blog
5 Comments
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By the way, thanks to all who took the time to respond to the survey. It was very instructive.
For now, just taking a couple of steps back, and will be just posting stuff here.
Here's the next part of the "rickroll" -- catchers.
2014 age
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Thumbnail commentary
Mike Zunino
23
RH
PreArb1
PreArb2
PreArb3
Arb1
Arb2
Arb3
FA
He ought to stabilize the position for years to come. Not a Posey-level offensive weapon (not until his K% comes down a bunch), but the whole "team leader within four seconds" deal can't be... Read More
When it is "fun to win the ball back"
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/13
Posted to blog
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The guard is a ground grappling position where one combatant has their back to the ground, while attempting to control the other combatant using the legs. In pure grappling combat sports, the guard is considered an advantageous position, because the bottom combatant can attack with various joint locks and chokeholds, while the top combatant's priority is to transition into a more dominant position, a process known as passing the guard.
The guard is a key part of Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu where it is used as an offensive position. - Wikipedia
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The operative idea here is:
The winning side has... Read More
'I'm just trying to be smart.' … 'No, Doc - you're trying to be CLEVER.'
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/13
Posted to blog
9 Comments
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I'm a sabermetrician. That's point A. Don't get your underwear in an uproar there, LrKrBoi29. ;- )
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Point B: Do you think maybe saber matters less than we imagine it does?
This from Hey Bill at Bill James Online, only $3 per month which is, what, about 10% of Dr. D is scheming to go for on his new Arsenal shtick ... :: bwheheheh ::
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Hey Bill, Does the Royals success this year simply reflect the fact that they have more money now to sign better players since they still aren't using modern metrics?
Asked by: aagcobb
Answered: 11/3/2013
Well. .. I don't know for sure that... Read More
What's the formula for Phi Slamma Jamma
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/13
Posted to blog
8 Comments
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So, being an open-minded chap and all that, we continued our little stroll down the middle yellow stripes on the highway...
Take the best things about the 2014 Mariners. Things we're happy about, going into next season. How much of it do the Mariners owe to sabermetric insight, and how much do they owe to Good Ole Boyz and their grasp of the game?
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Felix Hernandez. 0% saber, 100% scouting. They started pursuing Felix when he was 14.
And, no, neither was his contract extension due to saber analysis. It was due to Howard Lincoln's desire to have a face of the franchise. When somebody... Read More
Please help chart the future of minor-league content!
Posted by Spectator on 11/02/13
Posted to blog
2 Comments
I have developed a plan for the Spectometer blog, and I am seeking your input to see if the plan will work. So ... please review the plan and follow the link below to respond to the survey. Thank you very much for your consideration!
Off-season plan:
1. Continuation of the rickroll Depth Charts. Part 1 (starters) here. Part 2 (relievers) here.
2. Some Spectometer Time Machine reports. If we had been publishing at the time, what would Spectometer have said about Justin Smoak, Jose Lopez, Matt Tuiasosopo or, say, Edgar Martinez?
3. Leader boards for the various Spectometer stats... Read More