Hey Doc
Kendrys Games


M-Pops'  question was so "Hey Bill"-like that we couldn't resist.  We'll do a mini-impersonation of the Great Man in Hey Bill style.  Indulge us?  


Hey Doc.  Kendrys Games:  How much more valuable is Beltran at 3/$45 than Kendrys at 3/$24? Which would you rather have? 

Asked by:  M-Pops

Answered:  11/13/13


$15M might be the high end for Beltran, and $8M the low end for Morales.  So the question is edited against Beltran, a little bit, in the salaries given.


To a team operating 25 drone players, those would be two reasonable, and different, approaches to filling the same need.  And in the batter's box, they are extremely similar hitters, Beltran at this point being one notch better than Morales.

The answer for any specific team is going to depend on PLAYER-PAIRS.  You've got Beltran in left, and which minimum-wage kid at DH?  Or you've got Morales at DH, and which $10M player in left field to go with him?  

You've got variables in here like, How much do you value Jesus Montero's last chance?  Remember, Jesus Montero was THE most heralded minors hitter for power, just a year or two ago.  And he's right handed, which the Mariners need.

  • Beltran and Montero = $15M per
  • Kendrys and Marlon Byrd = $15M per

Obviously, the Beltran approach is going to tend more toward Stars & Scrubs, so is more dynamic.  If Montero doesn't hit, you can switch him out.  If Byrd or Kendrys don't hit, they stay in the lineup.  But GM's value proven production, so that's the way they tend to go.


As to the question of whether Kendrys Morales is "almost as good as Carlos Beltran" ... Beltran exceeds him, and by a long ways, in every area of the game but one:

  • Footspeed - 80 to 85 runs per year vs. Morales' 60 runs per year
  • Position scarcity, defense
  • Star power, hitting in postseason, hitting great pitchers
  • etc

Beltran is a vastly better player on the bases, vastly better on defense, vastly better in big games if you put any credence in that, and Morales is only similar with the wood in his hand.  And Beltran's better than him at that, too.

But Kendrys and ? is certainly the option you might be left with.  The offseason is more about opportunity than strategy.





Don't quite understand all of the Kendrys bashing that has occurred this off season.  On other sites, not this one, the virtual vitriol fumes and liquid are blinding, and enough has been lobbed in Kendrys' direction to melt him into an iBlob.

 Kendrys switch-handedly became the most consistent and second best hitter on our team last year.  He, Raul and Seager changed the grade on our offense from F- to C-.  That is a huge accomplishment.  Kendrys has no major weaknesses, is a real switch hitter, and can handle a whole season of DHing on a bad team without slumping.  That's worth something.  Kendrys is like a T-Bond, or a commodity like coffee or gold.  He is as sure as bets can be, as in, if those things collapse, we will be close to living in Thunderdome society.

Every portfolio should have some securities like Kendrys.  He is well rounded.  Sometimes I worry that Zduriencik only wants to play penny stocks with usurious loans to third world countries, and flying car startups.  Maybe its a good thing that he has trustee lawyer bosses to keep him from going all Lehman Brothers on us. 
 Bottom line: Sign Kendrys for 3X 30 while we're waiting around for something else to happen.
In order to improve on last year, we need to pencil in the production that made 2013 happen, and then add to it.


Morales provides insurance at 1B if the Smoakamotive derails completely; or a platoon partner if the Smoaker is all smoke and no fire batting right handed, like 2013. Since we threw away Carp and presumably are not bringing back Morse, let's sign Morales and move on to the plugging the next hole.


But then, I believe very strongly in Choi and Peterson who should be a year or two away and both seem aimed somewhere between the DH and 1B position (though Peterson can play the field better).
Morales/Smoak is okay for 2014, but 2015 should bring up one of the kids. I was a little surprised that Morales turned down the QO, since it's very likely that it hamstrings him in conversations with other suitors early in the game and thus drops his price later. 
I wouldn't be surprised for us to circle back around to him after we whiff on our other dreams and find him still sitting there waiting for a good offer.


2x$25 wouldn't surprise me. I could actually see something in the 3/$30M area, too.
I've certainly bashed Smoak and I think his days are numbered, but I'm not sure we have anybody better in-house, and with Choi and Peterson on the way, I think he's safe for another season. I would definitely platoon him, though.


You sure talk a lot about post-nuke scenarios....
Of course, that may be due to the fact that the Mariners have been playing in a post-Lou scenario for quite a while now...

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