Percy Harvin 2013, Randy Moss 2007
Threat is stronger than the execution, Dept.

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True dat:  data makes your content objectively stronger than your opinion.  But subjectively?  Is it stats that change the world, or is it Hollywood?  How many stats were there in Maureen Dowd's latest column?

Math is great.  Verbal idea transfer is greater.  Proof is critical; persuasion is vital.  Both are important.  One's more important than the other.  We're people, not machines, and proof -- the final word on an issue -- is a lot more uncommon than we tend to realize.

Dr. D knows a few b'wanas who tend to confuse the two things.  ;- ) Knowing the difference is a tremendous competitive advantage.  If you're aware that you're in the arena of persuasion, rather than of proof, you can treat your audience with appropriate respect.

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In 2006, Randy Moss gathered a robust 553 yards of receiving for the Oakland Raiders.  In 2007, with his value discounted by about 70%, he moved to the New England Patriots.

For the Patriots, Moss caught 98 passes for 1,493 yards and 23 touchdowns.  Brady threw for 50 touchdowns overall, Wes Welker caught 112 (!) passes underneath Moss, and the Patriots went 16-and-0.  It took the Giants' "helmet catch" to prevent a Hollywood movie.

Dr. D is a "Stars and Scrubs" guy in most sports contexts, but especially as it applies to wide receivers who are authentically scary TD threats.  I personally thought that the Patriots' offense, with Moss, was tranformed.  From "great" to whatever is beyond that.  Tom Brady threw for 3500 yards the year before the Patriots got Moss; he threw for 4800 the year they got him.

Jerry Rice provided the electricity to Bill Walsh's West Coast offense; the 1980's version of the "bubble screen" was a simple drag route across the middle to Rice.  He'd take the ball 4 yards over the line of scrimmage and ramble for 30-60 yards, once a game, it seemed.

The Pittsburgh Steelers won four Super Bowls with two wideouts who stretched the field vertically, as Al Davis would say.  The Cowboys won three of them (IIRC) with Michael Irvin providing the "white space" in enemy defenses.

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Bleacher Report has an article up with the X's and O's of how Percy Harvin helped push the Seahawks toward 41 points last Sunday.

For example, on Harvin's first play as a Seahawk, he simply lined up in the slot and the Vikings' defense responded with a 4-2-5 defense, two safeties very deep, and Marshawn Lynch reached for the open spaces like a hungry man reaching for bread.  Eight yards, easy as pie.  It is the intersection of Harvin, vertically, with Lynch's high-PSI pressure at the line, that will create an offense that is virtually impossible to stop.

It's worth noticing, too, that --- > we NFL fans will take a couple of games to recognize Percy Harvin as one of the game's most threatening players.  It took the Vikings 0 plays.  They showed Harvin the same respect, his first play, that teams will be showing him after his 10th touchdown as a Seahawk.

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On Harvin's second play as a Seahawk, he was inside slot right and he dragged the defense into the middle of the field.  Doug Baldwin was 1-on-1 with, literally, no other Viking player within 25 yards of him, even as the ball leisurely arch'ed down the sideline to him.  Bang, another 44 yards.

Bleacher Report has .gif's on all of this, plus more.  Great stuff.

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In chess, there is a maxim that goes "THE THREAT IS STRONGER THAN THE EXECUTION."  That's not a cliche.  It's an observation of the fact that, in some situations, holding the Sword of Damocles over somebody's head, and not dropping it, can pay off time after time after time.  

If batters are scared spitless of Hisashi Iwakuma's down-and-in shuuto, he can punish them time and time again with letter-high fastballs.  A rookie pitcher, with an 80-SB man on first base, might go nuts worrying about him.  The guy steals second, great, but now the pitcher can throw his natural game.  Well, in baseball it's more subtle ... :- )  In chess and in football, decoys change the game.

Percy Harvin will net the Seahawks 1,000+ yards per year, pro-rated.  His effect on their offense will be many times that.

Blog: 

Comments

1
bsr's picture

The way other NFL players talk about Harvin tells you all you need to know about his talent level. As for him, he had some great comments about Russ Wilson on the postgame presser. To the effect of, the best thing about Wilson is he makes everyone comfortable on the field, because he is so prepared and in command that everyone knows he will put them where they need to be. It was interesting to hear one of the most talented guys in the league (supposedly a difficult personality) talk about another player like that. Maybe it's a put-on but he seems really happy to be on this team. He might hit another level here. Granted Vikes are not good but it was pretty striking how the return of Harvin and the return of Wilson throwing deep bombs all day coincided...doubt that was a coincidence (well, maybe the return of a functional O-Line would explain it too :)
Not to get ahead of things but doesn't it just feel like Seattle-Denver SB is the destiny of this season? A perfect matchup of strengths vs strengths.
Btw, even though the NFL articles don't get as much commentary here, I for one give a thumbs up to keeping them coming. Always enjoy these posts.

2

That's a whale of a point.
Field Gulls had some article up -- vis-a-vis Golden Tate -- that pointed out many superstar NFL receivers who didn't start racking up big yardage until ages 26, 27.  Maybe Harvin's got some 1,400 yard seasons in him.
And I wasn't aware of the positive noises that Harvin was making about the Seahawks.  If he's a happy camper here, maybe he'll be in the training room less... 

3
Auto5guy's picture

And that won't diminish his superstar status one iota.
Pete Carrol has been adamant that he's not going to deviate from the run first game plan. With less than thirty passes per game there's not going to be the touches for him to be a stat monster. Still your article is spot on. Harvin's elite speed will warp defenses to the breaking point. The Seahawks are approaching critical mass and I get the feeling we might see a couple fifty point binges before the end of the season.
And I'm with bsr. Love love love your NFL commentary.

4

Still, Pete Carroll may be in for a surprise. :- )   As DangeRuss gets more and more into Brees mode, Carroll may find that the path of least resistance is through the air.  At a certain point, your own stylistic preferences are caved in by what you're seeing on the field.
Or not.  
.............
Thanks for the feedback Auto5.  We get so few comments that it's not clear how many people even click the links to read the NFL articles.  I'll gingerly take this as a cue to go with a few more.
:daps:

5

Pete will ride Beast Mode as long as he can but that's not going to last forever. When Lynch hits his decline, the focus of the offense will shift to the passing game.

6
misterjonez's picture

I have a dsl line here in the PI that barely registers 2mbps o a good day, and I'm about two days away from paying $150 for the NFL season ticket package so I can watch the rest of the Hawks games.
I am in no way, shape, or form interested in doing likewise for MLB next year.
So I say keep writing ;)

7

as many as you can write.
There'll be plenty of time later in February to pay more attention to our local team that's in it to SPIN it. Until then, better to pay attention to our local team that's in it to WIN it.

8
Auto5guy's picture

But I hope he doesn't. I"m with you guys. I hope he makes a turn the way that Shula did with Marino. Maybe not that extreme but I like more passing. I just don't see Carrol abandoning the run so easily. I don't think he sees his running offense ending with the departure of Marshawn either. He has Lynch's mini me in Turbin and he just invested a second round pick in Christine Michael. He is investing in the future of the run.
I see Carrol as a defensive minded coach first and foremost. One of the favorite things for a defensive coach is an offense that burns some time off the clock and gives his defense a break. The defense gets more tired than the offense in football. I think it infuriates a defensive coordinator to see an inferior offense moving the ball on his defense because his men are gassed. That's what led to Buddy Ryan punching Kevin Gilbride in the middle of a game.

9

Sea Chickens: "In it to WIN it"; M's: In it to SPIN it".... Hope you don't mind - I just stole it.

10

Ummmm...Marino never got a Super Bowl ring, mostly because they could never control the line of scrimmage or win the ToP. Not sure I want the Shula/Marino Dolphins to serve as the model for the Seahawks.
I'm a Steelers fan so I like the smash-mouth, 'make the other team submit' brand of football. It helps, obviously, to have a QB that can convert 3rd downs, grab some big gains periodically and run the two-minute offense. Good defense, ball control offense and that QB like that is a recipe that can win Super Bowls. Plural.

12

Yeah, that game sucked. Epic clash of system paradigms - smash-mouth vs west-coast. And the refs hand the game to one of the teams. My two favorite teams met in the Superbowl and nobody won. :(

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