Spec, How fast of track is Peterson on, in your estimation? Why not do a Bob Horner on him? Jackson, until July...then Tacoma is likely, I think. But you know me and hurrying real talent along.
Starting pitchers: here.
Relief pitchers: here.
And now corner infielders/DH.
|2014 age||2014||2015||2016||2017||2018||2019||2020||Thumbnail commentary|
|Kendrys Morales||31||SH||FA ($14.1M qual. offer)||FA||It says here the "QO" was a no-brainer. Producing a ton of XBH with a below-average K% is a key point for me, and only Morales and Seager did it. Also, you can't replace someone with no one.|
|Justin Smoak||27||SH||Arb1||Arb2||Arb3||FA||20 HR and 64 BB -- finally the Smoak we were hoping for, right? Kind of. Only 19 doubles, and what might be a fortunate HR/FB rate, are red flags. I think I'd believe that the latter wasn't a fluke (that is, he was finally shaking off his "warning track power") if not for the former (indicating he was not hitting the ball hard consistently; his XBH% was just league average).|
|Jesus Montero||24||RH||PreArb2||PreArb3||Arb1||Arb2||Arb3||FA||Of the three "can't-miss" guys (Ackley, Smoak, Montero), his "long, dark night of the soul" was longest and darkest. Horrible stats, knee surgery and a PED suspension. Oh, and they gave up on him as a catcher, too. Will a new Montero emerge, forged from the crucible of misfortune, and reclaim what made him look unstoppable at 19? I don't think anyone is counting on it.|
|D.J. Peterson||22||RH||AA/AAA||PreArb1||PreArb2||PreArb3||Arb1||Arb2||Arb3||He played 45 of 55 games (before breaking his jaw) at 3b, and was getting a lot of PR praise for his effort there. I think the team might be warming to the idea of Deej at third, Seager at second and Franklin/Ackley on the trading block. I warm to that idea, too (always having been a relative Franklin skeptic). Longoria/Zimmerman-level bat at 3b is not out of the question for Peterson.|
|Ji-Man Choi||23||LH||AAA||PreArb1||PreArb2||PreArb3||Arb1||Arb2||Arb3||You know we love our man Ji-Man! He has his nay-sayers, but I don't know what they object to (other than he'll be limited to 1b/DH). He hits the ball hard, draws a ton of walks and doesn't strike out. Last time I checked, that kind of thing wins baseball games. I call him "Korean Olerud," and I don't think that's out of line.|
|Dan Paolini||24||RH||AA||AAA||PreArb1||PreArb2||PreArb3||Arb1||Arb2||Like Choi, Paolini was pushing his way up the depth chart with .300/.400/.500-type numbers. Unlike Choi, he stalled out once he reached AA. Also unlike Choi, however, he can play OF and started out at 2b. That versatility may get him a shot.|
Yes, we love these guys, but their chances of making any kind of MLB impact are very slim and getting slimmer.
|Taylor Ard||24||RH||HighA||AA||AAA||PreArb1||PreArb2||PreArb3||Arb1||The Spectometer still says he has a chance, but more likely he'll end up with a career similar to Poythress.|
|Kristian Brito||19||RH||SS-A||LowA||HighA||AA||AAA||PreArb1||PreArb2||Went from "brutal" to "mildly intriguing." That's progress, I guess.|
Looks to be in AAA a few months into the season on the chart above, as you suggest. I don't think a move is required now for him to squeeze in even if you're thinking more along the lines of him being up in July or August. Franklin may have better trade value now, but on that front it's taking a chance either way. There may not be as many trade suitors mid season but there's always a team or several that have 2b or short term SS issues due to injury and ineffectiveness that are looking around in July. Due to positional aptitude, Franklin and Ackley probably wouldn't have all the same suitors which also adds possible suitors if you only plan on trading one but not sure which. Franklin could probably be looked at by teams in need of a long term 3b. Either could potentially be further groomed to a super sub role if Seager were to be moved to 2nd. But that decision doesn't have to be made now, since Ackley can play the OF decently.
Thanks again, Spec, for this thread series. I notice you have Paolini, Kivlehan and Peterson all at AA to start the year and Montero, Choi and Peterson closing out the year in AAA. I get that there's hurdles for all of them, but that seems fairly stacked in comparison to how people mostly talk about MiL corner infield for the M's. Do you think the overall group (sans Peterson) is being mostly underrated?
He would have been in the Arizona Fall League and maybe on a glide path to Tacoma. Now they might start him lower just to get his feet wet, but if he hits, he'll move up quickly.
We just compared him to Longoria and Zimmerman ... let's see. Zimmerman started his second pro season in the majors, while Longoria started in AA and wasn't in the majors until his third pro season.
I'd guess AA to start and majors in September unless he's just unstoppable. They won't have a defensive reason to rush him as they did with Zunino.
Paolini's already reached AA, but needs more time there.
I can't imagine they'll bother with High Desert for D.J., so AA at the lowest for him.
Kivlehan spent the second half at High-A, and then AFL, so AA is the logical step for him.
Paolini can play OF, so they can make that work. I would think Kiv could play OF too, although he hasn't yet.
Assuming Montero is still on the team, then he'll have to be at Tacoma with Choi. I don't know where else they'd put him.
Just in my view, Choi seems to be underrated for some reason. Paolini is kind of underrated, but just when he could have made a name for himself he stalled out and nosedived.
I don't think Kivlehan is underrated. A lot of folks rate him higher than me based on his potential. I've been more wait-and-see.
I don't know how you rate Montero right now. Total question mark.
Feeling much better about the M's corners going forward. A scenario involving such wonderful play from Choi 1B, DJ 3B that moves a long-term extended Seager to 2B? Sounds like a dream come true!
I have no expectation of seeing DJ at Safeco in 2014, but if it happens a pleasant surprise. I do expect Choi at Safeco in 2014. Before September. The sooner the better. Ji-Man seems to get knocked for not enough power from what I've read, but from looking at his performance the 2B and HR columns are filled up quite nicely. And the eye is superb.
Montero is a lottery ticket I'm happy to keep stashed in my wallet. Still believe Poythress would be one of "those guys" that surprises with decent major league performance if he ever got a chance. The kind of guy Oakland finds one or two of each season. But there is no place for him here since we'll keep Kendrys around (yay!)