Seattle Sports Insider

Carlos Beltran and Nelson Cruz

Beltran contemplates the Tao of being PAID to LOSE

Posted by

11/12/13

This from MLBTradeRumors:

The Mariners have money to spend and a need for offense. Yesterday, Joel Sherman of the New York Post wrote that the team could be aggressive on free agents Jhonny Peralta,Nelson Cruz, and Mike Napoli. The latest:

The Mariners' reported interest in Jacoby Ellsbury may be overblown, hears ESPN's Jerry Crasnick.
Crasnick wrote earlier than the Ms are more immersed in the Carlos Beltran/Peralta/Kendrys Morales market than in Ellsbury's. The Mariners would like to find a way to add Cruz and Beltran, tweets Crasnick. If they are to pull that off, it could be another offseason of disregarding defense, in my opinion. Signing Cruz and Beltran requires the forfeiture of draft picks, but the Mariners' first rounder is protected. They would lose their second round pick as well as their Competitive Balance Round B pick (similar to the Indians last winter).

The Mariners' outfield cost them a remarkable number of defensive runs in 2013. However, in 2014, batters will not get to play Joe Saunders Tee Ball against Taijuan and K-Pax.

Gimme the 4-man rotation, and I'll play bats in the outfield. But that's just me.

....

This from Bill James, on Dec. 15, 2012:

I love the All-Decade teams in the Historical Abstract. Do you have a New Millenium team?

Asked by: thomvan

Answered: 12/15/2012

1B--Albert Pujols. 2B--Not sure; maybe Utley? 3B--A-Rod (although there are many good candidates. . .Wood Chipper, Rolen, Wright.) SS--Dirty Rotten. LF--Bonds. CF--Carlos Beltran. RF--Bobby Abreu, or possibly Sheffield. DH--Papi. C--Open to Suggestions. SP--Sabathia, Pedro, Big Unit, Halladay. CL--Mariano.

....

(Hmmmm... would you want Bobby Abreu over Ichiro in right field? Heh.)

Still, the point is, it's not "Carlos Beltran." It's "Carlos Blinkin' Beltran." Carlos Beltran would be a John Malkovich decision.

All-Millenium team. Think about it for a minute.

....

"Flavor Text" department: James also points out that in 1999, "the Royals had an outfield of Jermaine Dye, Carlos Beltran and Johnny Damon, which I believe is the ONLY time in baseball HISTORY that a team has ever had three young outfielders who went on to careers of that quality. The Royals parlayed this into a string of 100-loss seasons."

Be Afraid,

Dr D

Blog:

Dr's R/X

Comments

Peralta

I've thought Peralta a lot about him, really. No kidding. I'm odd that way. His problem is where do you play him. He isn't playing left and he isn't playing SS unless you give up on Miller. 3B? Uh, our best bat is there. 2B? Are you done with Franklin already?
DH? Maybe...as a DH who can help all over the place...maybe. But remember, he has a lot of years at 84, 85 and 93 OPS+. As many as he does above 100. He's a tough roll of the dice as a full-time DH.
I can't quite see the fit. Close maybe.
Cruz is a worse fit. Terrible.
Beltran as a two year guy (one a team option)...still a maybe on that one. He's an expensive crappy glove but I can live with that, quite easily, if he's an .830 OPS bat out there.
$8M per? I'm in.

peralta

I'm with you Moe. Peralta is a dreadful SS, possibly adequate 3B and horrible LF. What's the point? I'd rather get in the Kemp derby with LA.

Beltran....8 M? HA! I'm in at that price too. :D

In all seriousness, moe, Beltran is probably going to get 15-17 mil per year and 3 years from someone...not sure who that someone will be...but even at that price I'm still OK with the Mariners doing that if it's part of a coherent strategy. I would not sign him thinking he's a CF...he's not horrid in the corners...just get him for RF and then you can trade for Denard Span...because then Denard Span actually makes sense.

Thanks Matt

3X$15M is pretty steep. My thought was that the Byrd signing might set the price for Beltran, or thereabouts, too. I stand corrected.
I'm not signing him for that price. I'm worried about his age 38 season, let alone his age 39 one.
moe

key difference would be...

...that Beltran is an established big league star with over a decade of fantastic seasons layered one on top of the other and a record of kicking tail in the post-season...whereas Byrd just had a huge career year but has been hit or miss going back.
If anything, Byrd getting 8 mil raises the specter of Beltran getting 18 or more. :\
Agreed that 15+ mil per year is pricey and risky...thing is, I think the Mariners have a roster that can afford some risks (due to all the young talent on it that costs very little) AND are about to be forced to take some risks due to the continued impression that they won't go after big name talent to win driving away all of the big league talent they want to get.
At some point we will have to overpay rather badly to get back in the game.

Kendrys Games

How much more valuable is Beltran at 3/$45 than Kendrys at 3/$24? Which would you rather have?

Kendrys, thank you

Kendrys for me, if those are the prices. Seems under-market for Kendrys, however. . If we can get him for 3/$24M, then he boo-booed in not signing the $14M QA.

Good points

Isn't overpaying for a 37-yr old masher a bit like overpaying for Figgy? Doomed to ultimate failure, I mean.....Well, not quite like that...but you get my exaggerated drift.
The point of spending money is to get a wise return on all your investment. Beltran's signing would mean you have to win next year, maybe the year after...if the point of his signing is to get you to a winning/challenging level. Hard to bet on it after that. There's a point where 3/Beltran makes sense, and a point where it doesn't (for me), if 3/$45M is the starting point, as Matt suggests, then I'm having a hard time getting in. But I like him a lot more than Cruz and more than Peralta. If it is a horse race between those three, then I'll go for Beltran and stock up on the clubhouse supply of Geritol.
moe