November 2011
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
17 Comments
...................
In the seven posts below (gasp, wheeze) Dr. D lays out his personal theory on Player Families as they are helpful to sabermetrics. He supposes that, logically, you'd read those first, and then this one. But hey, it's a free country.
.
=== Ackley's Defining Attributes ===
In a think-tank spirit -- and in fun -- SSI proposes the following set of "irreducibly complex" attributes for Dustin Ackley. For a player to comp to Ackley, it says here, he must have all of these attributes, and need have no others.
.
=== 1. Plus-plus-plus HIT Ability ===
We all watched as Dustin... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
9 Comments
..............
=== 5., 6. Age and LH ===
Merry & Pippin "Filling In the Corners" Dept ....
Stating the obvious here, a comp for Ackley would have performed. He'd have been a college (minors) superduperstar.
He would have a 300/400/450 type profile -- we take it for granted that Ackley comps have a .300 AVG, plenty of walks, and gap power at least. A comp has to be lefthanded.
Preferably, not absolutely, he'd run well and be a good outfielder, or a middle infielder.
.
=== Suggestions? ===
I was hoping you'd help me out :- )
Terry suggested George Brett, which I hope is true. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
...........
Lonnie axed us, on one of the podcasts, how Dr. D begins thinking about a player. "Suppose you've got a new player, Casper Wells. Where do you start?"
We offered a (very) little parable. "Suppose that you heard the Seahawks drafted a player who ran a 4.6 forty," we sez. "What would you think of the player?"
"I'd want to know whether he could catch the ball," sez Lon-man.
"Oh, but we didn't say he was a receiver. He's an offensive lineman. What do you think about a 320-lb. tackle who was clocked at 4.6?"
It's kind of important to know a player's position, ain't it? If... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
..............
=== Nov. 2011 Blog-O-Sphere System ===
Locally, there is a computer-oriented system that compares players by three criteria: CT%, SW%, and ISO. It uses one year -- say, Mike Carp's last year -- and finds players who posted Carp's CT%, SW% and ISO for one individual season. These are published as comps in the "Carp Family."
......
THE GOOD: The terrific advantage of such a list is that it is totally objective. The lists are generated by machine.
When we find comps by memory -- Ichiro to Pete Rose -- we have a natural tendency to grab memorable (excellent) players. At... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
2 Comments
..........
Also, notice that hitters and pitchers move way up and down these lists, themselves, from year to year. Here's what I mean...
James Shields had an 8.1 / 2.4 / 1.0 line in 2011. Should I go make a comps list of pitchers who were 7.9-8.3 k, and 2.2-2.6 bb, and 0.9-1.1 hr?
Hold on: Shields himself was nowhere near that in 2008-09. Shields was 6.7 k, 1+ walks, and 1.1 homers. Was Shields a terrible comp for himself?
When we "filter" a data table to match a player's single previous season, be aware that we're going to filter out most of that player's previous seasons. And... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
..........
=== Bill James Similarity Score at B-Ref.com ===
Back in about 1977, Bill James began serious work on player sorting.
Which criteria did he use? Well, he used K's, BB's, and power, of course. But he added player age, position, runs scored-triples-SB's, (reflecting speed), and a bunch of stuff.
James' "Score" systems weren't pulled out of his ear. He used trial-and-error, in many many MANY iterations, to triangulate a decent similarity. This represented a step forward -- we went forward from the 1970's to the 1980's with these Similarity Scores.
.....
I kind of hate to point... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
..........
=== Field Scouts ===
Going back not to 1975, but to 1925, scouts have always been willing to use "Player Families." When a scout tells you that a 19-year-old Ken Griffey Jr. reminds him of Willie Mays ... well, friends, that is the marvelous human brain deploying its own PECOTA system.
The scout wouldn't put it in these words, maybe, but the scout's PECOTA system has matched these players through the following attribute-algorithm :- )
GRIFFEY JR
MAYS
CF
CF
Tall and strong
Tall and strong
Speedy, 20 SB's
Speedy, 20 SB's
35+ HR's
35+ HR's
HIT (.300)
HIT (.300)
Graceful
Graceful... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
...............
=== SSI's System ===
Is, as you know, The World's Most Dangerous Saber System. It is, of course, a near-exact analogue to chess pattern recognition and position evaluation. Give or take a few weak squares.
So, Igor, before I throw the switch and electrocute myself, get your notes straight. It works this way:
Intro. Be aware of anything that others have said about a player's potential comps.
1. Use data-nourished human judgment to isolate a player's truly defining characteristics.
1b. If possible, use a think-tank mechanism to refine this attribute set. In other words... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
................
=== ::golfclap:: Dept. ===
Had a Tasmanian Devil weekend, by which I mean that my kids booted up Tasmanian Devil cartoons, saw Bugs Bunny and Road Runner cartoons pretty much for the first time ever, and by which I mean that today's 14-hour workday is the lightest in some time.
Saw in the right sidebar that the M's had traded for a catcher. About 80-90% of the time, Dr. Detecto avoids reading other sites before cobbling together his side-shtick, in part so as to keep the shtick a little fresher. This, however was one of the 10-20%'s.
Dr. D sat stunned as one blog-o-... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
3 Comments
...........
=== John Jaso as Polar Opposite of Miguel Olivo ===
A glance suffices to verify the wisdom of this USSM assessment. Thusly:
HR's, vicious swing
Low ISO, nauseatingly static swing
Gasp-inducing EYE ratio
EYE that has been as high as 1.5 (!)
Cruise-missile arm
Noodle arm
RH, Latin-speaking
LH, English-speaking (think Felix, Pineda etc)
UFC-ready
NYT Crossword-ready
You might line up all the catchers of 2011 -- all 107 of them -- and find Miguel Olivo at the end of the line, nobody on his right, and Jaso at the other end, nobody on his left.
Dr. D has constantly whined about the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
...............
=== Quick Report Card ===
Matthew of LL pointed out that Jaso's defensive numbers (1) don't look too good, and (2) don't cost his teams all that many runs, relative to other catchers. He also, wisely, cautioned us not to sell them too hard, and not just because of "sample size" (sigh) factors.
Dr. D had cried bloody murder on Chris Gimenez, as early as May. The 2011 Mariners indeed wound up 4-16 in Gimenez' starts. SSI dreamily fantasized that Josh Bard's callup had correlated with the SSI whining about Gimenez... at a CORR of 0.20, anyway ...
.........
Does Dr. D fear... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
3 Comments
..........
I don't say that John Jaso is a plus catcher. But if the question is, Does John Jaso handle pitchers better than Chris Gimenez and Ryan Doumit do? Then the answer seems to be a resounding YES.
Platooning with Miguel Olivo, catching maybe 60-80 games in a season, John Jaso ought to be a reliable "average-mediocre" behind the plate. And that's saying a lot.
.
Q. Why would the Rays dump him?
A. To listen to the fans ... the org is oriented to the bottom half of the inning. They like to stop runs.
Familiarity breeds contempt, and they evidently got tired of bat-first catcher,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
5 Comments
...............
=== John Jaso Hitter Family ===
If you ain't in the mood to deal, skip this post. Hit the other blogs with Dr. D's blessing. You don't want him spitting on your euphoria here.
Good ol' Big Blog used my beloved "Hitter Family" approach to triangulate Jaso neatly. They selected three very fundamental criteria, too. Beautiful!
Gimme a Red Robin "Happy Happy Birthday" clap and song. If our ... er, if Bill James' ... "Pitcher-Hitter Family" approach proliferates into a stock approach, baseball understanding will be the better for it. We say that in all humilty. On James'... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/29/11
.............
Q. Is there any good news, offensively?
A. Three pieces of great news. First: Jaso plays catcher.
Dr. D isn't saying that Jaso can't OPS+ 90. SSI liked USSM's point that these Casey Kotchman* types have high floors.
What is a 90 OPS+ catcher worth to you? If this were Kotchman for 1B, that would be one thing. No, we're talking about a #8 hitter who is going to get on base twice against Dan Haren. And then you've got your Ackley-Carp-Smoak combo coming up. That collateral damage will win games.
As G-Money says, he hits lefty in Safeco, too.
SSI isn't bullish on Jaso... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/28/11
3 Comments
...........
Q. UP, MID, LO scenarios?
A. We can't get too carried away by a catcher who runs a good K/BB ratio. It happens. Gregg Zaun's EYE was almost 1.0 -- he walked 479 times and struck out only 544 times in the big leagues. Was he a threat? Did you bite your fingernails when he stepped up with men on, or sigh with relief? (He had 59 RBI per 162 games, career.)
Jim Essian was a similar catcher - way more BB's than K's for his career. They're around, backstops who OPS+ 90 because of walks and a sound approach at the plate.
........
The Mariners had a decent backup... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/28/11
9 Comments
..................
Remember that Pixar short in which the little alien had a bank of 9,000 toggle switches and was trying to use them to lift a human into their ship? Things got worse and worse, and at the last possible second, the big mentor alien saved the day (night) by poker-facedly luuuuunnnnnngging wayyyyyyyy over to toggle switch #3,217 ....
Dr. Grumpy hit a random toggle switch (or what do you call those switches?!) that provoked Dr. D into a post. :- ) Whether this result makes Dr. G the idiot alien or the mentor, you be the judge....
..........
In the Hultzen thread, there was... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
4 Comments
.................
The 2003 M's, packing most of the ballplayers who won 116 games in 2001, would have made the playoffs under baseball's new system. And maybe that woulda been the year that The Edgar got his ring.
...................
For those who missed the memo, MLB reached agreement with the union this week on another 5 years' worth of baseball peace.
Dr. D read about 900,000 words of angst over this: the 2nd Wild Card will dilute the playoff field. The hard slotting in the ammy draft, and the spending limits internationally, will nuke small-market teams. Expanded replay will... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
.................
The 1995 and 1997 M's made the playoffs; in 1996, without Randy Johnson, they didn't. But under the new rules, 1996 would have been one more shot for Junior and Bone.
............
=== Seattle Mariners ===
Do you realize that the 2007 Mariners, the 88-win club with Batista, Washburn, HoRam, and Jeff Weaver flanking Felix, that they would have made the playoffs? That team had a lineup jammed full of above-average hitters.
Well, they sort of made the playoffs. They would have had a playoff with the #6 team, the 88-win Tigers, and the winner of that game would have had an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
9 Comments
...............
=== PRO ===
Most baseball teams should be in the pennant race ... on Opening Day. Baseball is for kids. It is not for postgrad students, and for sure it should not be co-opt'ed by postgrad students.
This entire discussion about Prince Fielder is fundamentally idiotic. You have home town fans weeping and wailing that their home team might try to win.
This is an idiotic situation.
*See comments - not the arguments for and against Fielder, and not the arguments that winning could be done better without Fielder. But many hometown fans argue -- in March -- that "the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
13 Comments
...............
In an elimination game, which ace would the M's use? Maybe Danny Hultzen or James Paxton? I'd love to have an ace-heavy team if I were coming down the September stretch in this format.
.
=== CON ===
"A one-game playoff is a joke. "
Dr. D allows this, in terms of "scientifically determining a worthy champion."
..........
But baseball isn't scientific research. Our goal isn't to find a p
Game 7's have decided sports champions for a long time. Personally, I wouldn't consider a 2012 elimination game, between Felix Hernandez and David Price, to be a silly... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
4 Comments
.........
Moe argues that Felix might not be among the M's five most valuable U-25 assets:
By the way. In considering the Felix thing I went back and looked at Tom Seaver, a decent template for Felix. Guys, Seaver is better than I remember, and I remember him being one handful of best players I ever saw. In his first 12 seasons, in which he threw more than 250 innings 11 times (the other season he only had 236, the slacker), he had only one season where he had an ERA ABOVE 2.98. That time he ballooned to 3.20.
Tom Terrific was, in a word, the best NL starter each year from about 1969... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/23/11
2 Comments
.............
Baseball Prospectus' U-25 list marvelled that the M's would run three such impressive big-leaguers -- Felix, Pineda, and Ackley -- out ahead of two 5-star prospects, those being Taijuan and Danny Hultzen. ... Paxton and Franklin were their 4-star guys.
Their list of U-25 talents -- not org prospects, mind yer -- had run,
1
Felix, SP
2
Pineda, SP
3
Ackley
4
Taijuan, SP
5
Hultzen, SP
6
Paxton, SP
7
Trayvon
8
Franklin
9
Smoak
10
Carp
To me it was even more impressive that Carp and Smoak would be 9 and 10 on their list.
One thing is clear: it is hiiiiiiiiigh blinkin' time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/22/11
34 Comments
...................
Unless S2S is leaving Paxton, Taijuan, or Franklin out of their top 100, then they peg the M's as having 6 of the game's top 100. This week they covered Hultzen at #46; earlier they reviewed Vinnie Catricala at #59 and Jose Campos at #82.
Baseball Prospectus had been not a little amazed, either. They listed the M's top U-25 talents like this
1
Felix
2
xxx
3
xxx
4
[5-star prospect]
5
[5-star prospect]
6
xxx
7
xxx
8
Nick Franklin, 4-star
9
Mike Carp
10
Justin Smoak (!)
And remarked, "if a team can put three big-leaguers in front of its 5-star prospects, that's an... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
4 Comments
An ESPN heatmap of Michael Pineda's first pitches during April-May, 2011. See Michael Pineda's Pinpoint Accuracy by Lee Singer ....
..........
In a stroke of coincidence rivalling the King Humberto destiny script, CA asked on November 20th whether saberdudes still believed that pitchers do not affect BABIP. Dr. D kind of laughed that a lot of them are softening on it some...
... and then, on November 22nd, Mike Fast published a BABIP article that may be the most important saber article of the last five years. It seems to be in front of BP's pay wall.
CA: 'net rat, career scout, or time... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
1 Comments
..................
Q. How much difference in batted-ball MPH is there between pitchers? 0.2, 0.4 MPH?
A. BP only had data for 2009. CC Sabathia gave up batted balls that averaged 68 MPH; Silva gave up batted balls averaging 75 MPH.
Here's the chart via direct .jpg, if the one in this window doesn't include the bottom axis.
Notice that Miguel Batista, Carlos Silva, and Ian Snell are poster boys for crushed balls-in-play. Tampa Bay has been using MPH for pitchers since at least 2009. The Mariners apparently weren't using it when they stubbornly ran Ian Snell out there for 20 more... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
1 Comments
........
Q. Does this affect team Defensive Efficiency Rating (DER)?
A. The correlation between DER and MPH is strong, and that is the revolutionary takeaway here (though Fast doesn't comment on it).
In other words, a major cause of lousy team defense is just bad pitching -- smoked balls in play that give the fielders no chance. And a major cause of (apparently) great team defense is just great pitching; often you get great DER's primarily because the hitters can't get decent swings off the pitchers.
Look at the Boston Red Sox. They had an outstanding .293 DER, lowest in the AL. Look... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
.........
Q. Any other Bright Light Bulbs here?
A. Also, you know that idea of putting low-walk, high-GB, low-K pitchers --- > in front of good fielders in a big park, to "exploit" your great out-conversion machine?
Don't do that.
..........
Here, look at another chart, MPH (and therefore BABIP) by pitcher strikeout rate, either in this new window or as pasted above.
Again notice Silva and Batista as poster boys.
SSI was partly guilty here, because at the time I wrote that there should be a synergy here. Around 2008, the Mariners piled up Civic starting pitchers, MLB(TM) starters... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
..........
Q. What kinds of pitchers limit batter MPH?
A. Right off the bat, BP acknowledged Charlie Hough and Jamie Moyer as pitchers "who owed their careers" to their ability to induce weak balls in play.
I've always been convinced that SP's who were excellent at changing speed -- those with very deceptive changes and curves -- were going to run low BABIP's.
.
In Fast's articles, he also suggests high velocity as a way to induce cut-down swings. (The MPH on batted balls is almost totally caused by batspeed. You don't get much of a bonus in batted-ball speed just because the pitch... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
5 Comments
...............
Q. Okay, what is the good news and bad news for the hometown nine?
A. For one thing, be aware that you're about to see the Seattle Mariners' defense get a lot better. They are migrating from a staff full of Jarrod Washburns into a staff full of Michael Pinedas.
We have discovered the existence of pitchers' batted-MPH skill -- and we have discovered which pitchers have it, discovered that pitchers with high K/PA allow low MPH in play. James Paxton, Danny Hultzen and Taijuan Walker are even more valuable after Fast's article than they were before it.
..........
Notice... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
5 Comments
...........
Q. Does this paradigm affect Felix or Vargas going into 2012?
A. Nothing affects Felix. True, his BABIP was kinda high last year, and he had huge mistake rates in his first two full years, but he transcends this kind of consideration. You gotta keep a sense of proportion. :- )
We'll note in passing that Felix should be as good as Pedro was, but isn't. He ought to be missing more bats, but he doesn't wish to. The MPH / BABIP paradigm turns out to be, satisfyingly, consistent with SSI's quibbles about Felix over the years.
It's a funny thing. The Felix you are seeing, is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/21/11
8 Comments
............
Malcontent says,
It's hard to think and talk about a game, when you read 30 minutes ago about the brutal death of a player. It's not something I say very often, but my thoughts are very much with Greg Halman's family.
Took the kids to Happy Feet last night, and the shrimp / prawn / whatever started dancing, remarking offhand that he needed a momentary relief from the existential terror of existence...
As we all know, baseball is a momentary relief from, not a substitute for, our responsibilities.
Feel terrible for Greg's mom. As to Greg's brother, to borrow from Jackie Chan... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
10 Comments
.............
In a slow news week, Dr. D skateboarded around the block and .... folded waist-first over a steel handrail of scoffing over at his favorite site.
Six (6) separately-identifiable jeers in the first 100 words .... slap me silly. :- ) This is just baseball, right? This much toxicity over a difference of opinion over baseball moves?
Okay, well, if tonight's movie runs the High Noon call out into the street, amigo ... what's good for the goose is good for the gander, right? ::spurs clinking::
........
Dr. D's baser instincts were not helped by the comments section to that... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
............
It's kind of tough to pull rank in a blog-o-sphere that probably contains 50, 100 people who would be employable as baseball consultant. People keep trying to bluff the pot, and keep forgetting that the audience out there can analyze as well as the lead authors can.
It's tough to intone an Appeal To Authority to yourself as one of "the (few) people who know how to value player contributions on the field and figure out how to build a roster full of players who can produce beyond what they cost," at least until you reply to this table and to this one.
SSI just don't grant... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
............
=== Slow Down There Li'l Nellie, Dept. ===
If anyone cares, Dr. D will notice that of the Nine Big Blunders proving the Mariners to be "the stupidest organization in the sport," half of them do not hold up to serious scrutiny. And that the other half may, or may not, exceed the mistakes we've seen from the Angels, A's, or Rangers.
SSI has nothing against guillotining Jerry Sandusky - if the trial was absolutely fair. Maybe Bill Bavasi was dumb. But let's make sure everything we charge him with is true.
.
1. USSM argued, at every point, that Shin-Soo Choo would never be a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
............
[continued from previous]
Choo and Cabrera are the two big 10-Second Sound Byte Demagogue bumper sticker incriminations of Bavasi.
But come on, gentlemen, let's be fair. In July 2006, exactly nobody thought we had traded away two future All-Stars. To go back and say that Bavasi should have seen that Choo and Cabrera were coming stars, simply isn't fair.
Dr. D would cheerfully agree that there are lessons learned from trading your #7 and #8 org prospects for a Rent-A-DH. But teams trade prospects for hired guns. Broussard and Perez were packing a combo SLG of well over .... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
.............
Baker, coming from the East Coast, has a macro sense for what some ballclubs are up to when they say, "We'll put together a competitive team and offer a nice family night at the ballpark."
Baker has seen East Coast teams that thirst to win, and he has seen midmarket team that "manage expectations." He calls baloney on it. So do I, and have since July 2011. If you, Gentle Reader, are oblivious to the fact that many sports CEO's want to play .500, make money, and sit in the luxury boxes getting fawned over ... you better axs somebody.
This macro industry problem is real,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/20/11
1 Comments
............
=== Good News Dept. ===
In fairness, Zduriencik has put it on the marquee now. Hey, we are wide open to a monster deal, says he. Give credit where it's due.
Sometimes I think that we forget that Lincoln and Armstrong are willing to push all in when they are confident in the GM. You remember Lincoln saying "It's very easy to raise payroll when it's Pat Gillick spending the money."
Zduriencik seems to have hit the point to where Lincoln and Armstrong want to throw him the ball. Here's where SSI does give them a bit of a pass, and Bavasi a bit of blame, for the 2004-08 years... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/11
7 Comments
..............
The last 40 comments could spark 40 front-page URL's. ... okay, okay, by the time Dr. D is finished packing the valuable substance with worthless foam peanuts, more like 150 URL's.
Let's start with the most compelling, or at least controversial, post, as I see it.
Benihana sez:
.
[This article] sheds some more light on the argument against signing Fielder: http://www.ussmariner.com/2011/11/14/prince-fielder-and-buying-wins/
For those who fear to tread in that direction a short summary: Playoff teams need 45-50 WAR. Average market cost of a win is $5 million. Buying a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/11
..............
In the article rained out of the iCloud by Benihana, there is another (very strong) idea that the Mariners can't afford to settle for 5.0 WAR in its $25M free agency investing. Stated differently, you've got an original concept here that --- > a team must shoot well below par in the free-agent market.
Free agent wins cost, on average, about $4.5M apiece. In that article, you've got the assertion that you're committing suicide to actually spend $4.5M for a free agent win. This is a core concept being advanced.
I'd be curious to know what Tom Tango, the high priest of... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/11
2 Comments
............
Last post, we were talking about the logic that says.... "Well, the M's need 1 WAR for every $2M they spend, so the M's cannot spend $25M for one 5-WAR player. Really they need to think in terms of doing better than the market. Where the Mariners are, spending $4.5M per WAR would be a disaster."
Which is interesting logic, but G-Money's reaction to this was silky-smooth:
.... I don't understand why paying Fielder 20 million for 5 WAR is worse than paying 20 million for 3 other guys who add up to 5 WAR.
At least if you pay it to Fielder you have two other slots to put in... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/16/11
34 Comments
................
=== Baked Bean (Counting) Dept. ===
Dr. D will try and present this in (yet) one more way so as to --- > make this so accountant-friendly that we all, accountant and fanboy alike ... just stop arguing about it. :- )
Allow SSI to introduce -- apparently!? -- the concept of pre-arb run purchase opportunity.
$4.5M
Cost of 10 runs, on FA market
$2.0M
Cost of 10 runs / 1 win, arb players*
$0.9M
Cost of 10 runs / 1 win, pre-arb players*
(*Just estimating. We know that FA wins cost $4.5M, and we know that all wins (FA + arb + pre-arb) cost $2.5M. So those guesses must be... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/14/11
20 Comments
......
According to Jon Heyman.
Read "unsure of budget. But will give it a run," that the M's will try to sell Fielder with context. Not by outbidding everybody else by $25M, Yankee-style. Fair enough.
Pat Gillick used to do this with players like John Olerud and Aaron Sele and Bret Boone - offer them deals comparable to the other deals. With the real lure being a place the player can be happy.
...........
F-500 execs -- and baseball players -- spend 14 hours a day with their co-workers. If they don't like their co-workers, their whole lives are unpleasant.
In corporate recruiting,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/11
11 Comments
................
Zduriencik on SIRIUSXM radio, Nov. 10:
.
Casey Stern (2:33): And Jack, I know you want to do it from the ground up. But certainly, and you'll recognize, that if you were able to get an impact bat -- to put in the middle of these kids -- of Ackley and Smoak, that certainly you'd probably get to where you want to get to, quicker.
I guess my question is, if the right opportunity came ... do you have support from ownership to do a monster deal, with either a big free agent or a big player that you were to get in a trade?
.
Zduriencik (with emphasis): If the right... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/11
12 Comments
...........
Very fine article here on the probability of Prince Fielder aging badly. In all seriousness, it's a much better article than my satire will be.
FG: 200 heavy players, as a group, aged more quickly than other players. Therefore, signing Prince Fielder to a Mark Teixeira contract would be an incredibly risky move.
Poster: Hey, wait, though. Fielder already beat the general population here. The graph said that he'd be feeling his weight badly at age 27. But actually at age 27, Fielder took a huge step forward, especially in his batting eye.
FG: ........ :blinks:
Poster: ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/12/11
1 Comments
............
Interesting saber discussion, here, as to whether ML teams actually play Stars & Scrubs -- that is, do they sacrifice more to acquire one 50-run player than they do to acquire two 25-run players.
At first, the group uses a misleading little metric to investigate, that being simple $-per-WAR-per-year. Using this metric, they logically conclude that --- > actually, CC Sabathia is making the same $ per run as are, say, Jeremy Affeldt and Javier Lopez.
About the 100th comment, Josh (Nov. 4, 5:00 pm) realizes that if you use total guaranteed dollars then you see reflected... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/11/11
33 Comments
............
Spec links us to a Jack Zduriencik card-flash off the bottom of the deck: Z wants "an impact bat," whether "by free agency or trade."
Does Josh Willingham float your boat? As you can see from the photo, he's comin' at you with a certain amount of mystery associated.
Lead off the discussion with his .360 OBP and .475 SLG "like clockwork," claims Spec. He's right.
.
=== Crib Notes of the Day ===
1. At 5.7 runs per 27 outs last year, 6.2 career (in the NL), Willingham is an impact bat, barely. But if it's an I/O grade, yes, Willingham is an impact bat.
Last year he had 29... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
4 Comments
......................
Video, Nov 5
First batter, Grossman, 1-2 count, Hultzen comes in with the slider/change and Grossman's reaction is comical. Can't tell whether his swing was late on pitch 4, or early for pitch 5. Always funny to see a hitter (half-)swing wayyyyy late on an 81 mph pitch :- )
.......
Second batter, on the 1-2 again, Hultzen throws the Jamie Moyer deadfish change and gets the same garbage strikeout that Moyer used to get.
.......
Third batter, full count, Hultzen blows Lane away with a 95 fastball at the knees. The hitter was looking offspeed on a full count (very... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
4 Comments
...............
Or, as Spec calls him, jamie@49.com.
Dr. D and Jamie are birthday twins, within a week. Dr. D lost his best performances during Bill Clinton's administration. He knows for a fact that, at this time of day, however hard Jamie Moyer trains ... he's fakin' it. ;- )
From a saber standpoint, you can see the atrophy of Jamie's old-man muscles in his mistake rates. Remember that 1.1 homers per game is where you need to be, and 1.4 is where you leave the majors. Here are Jamie's:
2011 - rehab
2010 - 1.6
2009 - 1.5
2008 - 0.9
2007 - 1.4
2006 - 1.4
Ron Shandler also points out... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
5 Comments
..............
By the time my man, your man, the San-Man was done taping incredulous caps and **!?!?$** marks onto his parcel-post delivery, "Is Z *really* THAT aggressive?!?" ... Dr D's roman candle was pleasantly lit.
Wanna get serious, mate? :- ) Step up.
Ya, we know. South'n man hopes Dr D will remember, South'n man don' need him aroun' anyhow.
He remembers, he remembers. But west of the Mississippi, it iss Heil der Bazeball-Reference kommissar. Go for your (stats) luger, Freunde sind.
.......
::WWII stand-tall, straight-arm sight-fire::
If you are looking for specific... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
3 Comments
.............
Hip-hopping from hoops, into high school hardball .... now from class A ball through three levels in one year, that is.
You gonna spin and scratch that? Is Taijuan's 2012 lurk worth a wall fulla SSI Doc-Gooden graffiti, or are we just sellin' out to MTV here?
Sandy protests, sensibly,
Walker has 103.2 innings (minors experience) with 96.2 in 2011 ... at Clinton.
::wink:: You got me there. Fact is, Taijuan Walker is (technically) a low-minors pitcher.
As was stated in our original article, the schedule for Walker is 2013. Taijuan Walker ain't pitching for a job in March... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
............
We could say, we s'pose, that Jason Vargas is the Rodney Dangerfield of the '010's Mariners. But none of you kiddies would know who Rodney Dangerfield was.
"My girlfriend called me the other day, said, 'Come on over. Nobody's home.' I went over. Nobody was home."
Homer Simpson, mebbe? Dunno. Anyway, San-Man sez:
.
I think the odds of Vargas missing the rotation in April are effectively zero (barring injury). If I had to guess right now, I'd say there are two open slots that Beaven, Furbush and Hultzen are competing for.
Zero or less. Fo sho Jason Vargas is in the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
..........
Geoff Baker, pressing his demand for a Prince Fielder play, had a killer line for opponents. "Why did you offer Felix a contract before you were ready to win?" (Do Mets writers battle locals who protest that the local club is threatening to bring in great players?)
And if we're having trouble digesting where Zduriencik stands on blue-chippers who are ready to win in the AL, we might go back to Pineda.
.
My view is that Z is likely going to be VERY squeamish about having players skip AAA completely. I think Z understands that there are "organizational" benefits to making even... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
..........
Sandy reminds us that the culture of a winning org doesn't begin at Safeco.
Kinda reminds in turn of a debate, last summer, in which locals wanted to know why minor-league teams didn't feed players better than they do.
The debate shifted over to a Yankee discussion board, in which the Yankees were given credit for treating rookie-ball players "like Yankees," and the dividends this paid later on, after they were stars...
Minor-league teams feed players better than fans think they do, but we digress. Sandy's point about "the way a player carries himself" is, of course, well... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/10/11
4 Comments
.................
Ay carumba, if 2006-11 can be considered history, anyway.
.
This isn't to say it's completely out of the question for Z to hopscotch one of these guys into the rotation. But, three?!? I don't see it happening.
Nah, Taijuan isn't pitching for a job in March. Four rookies in three years, we sez, making two-at-once a logical necessity at some point.
Do teams put two rookies in the same starting rotation? Is that the way they do bidness? .... we took a look at b-ref.com to look at some recent rookie SP combos.
.......
The 2009 Oakland A's we talked about to lead off. ... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
...........
Most underrated Mariner of 2011? That one guy who played shortstop. I literally forget his name at the moment. Sandy can look it up for me, right after he links us to the latest Jose Reyes buzz. Only three years, San-man!
Most underrated AL player? Ben Zobrist, maybe. Except by my roto teams. ... did you know Alex Avila had 5.8 WAR?
Most underrated AL pitcher? Well, it was Doug Fister, right, but then he got a lot of pub and became an overrated-underrated pitcher ... don't say Brandon League. You don't want to experience Dr. D going off on you, especially when you're... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
............
Q. Has Danny Hultzen "taken a big step forward" in the AFL?
A. What Hultzen has done, is he has proven to ever'body that he likes it rough.
As Michael Pineda does. As Dustin Ackley does. If you're going to call weak fouls, get off the court or get punched. That Dr. Danny would be a killer, this was a mild surprise to some people. But as Bones McCoy once asked a Romulan, "Would you like to find out just how fast I can put you in the hospital?"
Jack Zduriencik was aware of Hultzen's makeup, previously. Jack Zduriencik's entourage is aware of this, subsequently... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
6 Comments
............
Q. Okay, so the hitters will be new to Hultzen. They will be to Paxton also, right? As they were to Pineda?
A. Sure, but Hultzen's game is brain and Pineda's was brawn. Paxton is more in the brawn department, also.
Time for a light bulb, gents. In any sport, you have rookies who bring their games to the enemy, and you have rookies who bob-and-weave.
There is much less intuition involved in Pineda's game. The catcher puts his mitt down and Pineda throws the ball as hard as he can, as accurately as he can. If he does get too much of the plate, well, 98 mph has a way... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
Don't worry, sir - I'm from the internet
..............
Q. How do hyped rookie SP's do, generally?
A. This neat little article by David Golebiewski sync's up well with the Mainframe's intuition on the question. We know he's gleeful to get our signoff.
Golebiewski finds that hyped ML-ready SP's are, as a group, in their rookie seasons --- > average-solid ML starters.
::shrug:: sounds obvious to me. Suppose you gave me 50 average ML starters with 7 strikeouts and 4 walks, and suppose you put them down into the minors under assumed nicknames like "Tom Petty" and "J. Edgar," and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
..........
Q. So Hultzen should be in the minors in 2012?
A. Not at all. I'd have him in the bigs. (Assuming he is excellent in spring training, which SSI does NOT assume.)
Golebiewski's fine article underlines the reality, er, what woulda been SSI's own guess at it. Hultzen could spend 2012 as either (1) a great AA/AAA pitcher, or as (2) a fairly good AL pitcher. Neither route in 2012, if you ask me, affects his 2013-16 future much either way.
Here is a CBS article that identifies all ML pitchers who skipped the minor leagues since the ammy draft began in 1965:
Mike Leake... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/09/11
5 Comments
...............
Q. This "Tale of the Tape" hasn't given the column for James Paxton. No side-by-side. Give.
A. Remember, James Paxton came out of Kentucky -- originally -- as a classic Billy Beane 1st-round K/BB pitcher. He had a 115/20 control ratio as a senior, only 13 games.
He took a year off, and when he came back he hit 95 mph as though he'd never missed a day. This "rebound test" told you that his arm was much, much more special than advertised.
The mechanics were tear-inducing: Paxton effortlessly drives his wallet at the hitter, touches the ball to his back foot, and... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/05/11
11 Comments
..........
A few "net value" figures:
$19M x 3 ... Felix' remaining contract
$26M ... Felix' average production, last 3 years (include Y-3, Felix' big year)
$7M x 3 = $21M ... The amount by which Felix is underpaid, life of contract
And for Votto:
$13M x 2 ... Votto's remaining contract
$30M ... Votto's average production, last 2 years
$17M x 2 = $34M ... Votto underpay, life of contract
And for Pineda:
$40M / 5 ... Guess at Pineda's earnings, assuming he is the best pitcher in the AL
$15M x 5 = $75M ... Pineda's production, assuming he goes 5 more years, 3.70 ERA, 170 innings
$35M =... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/11
11 Comments
........
Disagreement is one thing, propaganda another.
Propaganda being, by definition, the attempt to influence thinking through repetition and authority, rather than through information and logic.
We've heard it said, many dozens of times -- and we heard it again this week -- that Michael Pineda cannot get major league lefthanders out. Worse, a large number of people are having their thinking influenced through this dogged repetition.
Here's some information:
.237 / .296 / .357 - Pineda, 2011 vs LH's
.252 / .314 / .349 - Felix, 2011 vs LH's
And here's some logic: Felix,... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/11
..........
COUNSELOR MOJO: Why not Reyes? Since he doesn't pack the 40-homer glamor, he could be a value.
SSI Mainframe: Players in the middle of the field -- SS's, 2B's, and CF's -- still, in 2011, appear to offer a moneyball value opportunity, yes.
WAR at first base, as for Fielder and Votto, might show a fancy 50-60 runs, which equal out to Reyes' 60 runs in 2011. But here's where the real-world "replacement level" is different from theory.
Saberdweebs might figure a certain RL at shortstop and presume that any decent org "ought" to be able to field a competent shortstop. But... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/11
.........
MALCONTENT: It's easy to visualize him doing a Rafael Furcal. How will Jose Reyes decline, from ages 29 to 34?
SSI Mainframe: Yes, it's easy to visualize that. Considering Reyes' nagging leg injuries already in his 20's, that's reasonable.
But! Check this out and I'll bet it will raise your comfort level. Here is a tremendous article out of Mets Nation.
The IM - Text Message version of their analysis: Players like Jose Reyes age very well. You even get a signoff from Tom Tango on it.
You do project Reyes for -5 runs loss per year, starting at age 29, which... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/11
.........
Back-alley offices not always being the best place to secure the wisest treatment protocols.
.
MALCONTENT He had a high BABIP but a lower xBABIP in 2011. How much does that worry you?
SSI Mainframe: First of all, Reyes' BABIP was up -- to some extent -- because he was unconscious. In the zone. En Fuego. You'd almost have thought he was playing for a contract. It wasn't luck primarily; the man was blistering the ball.
That said, scale Reyes' BABIP back to his previous and you've still got a 6+ RC/27 player. Reyes' OPS+ was 143; scale that back to 120, 125 and you've... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/04/11
18 Comments
...............
SANDY: What do you do with Nick Franklin?
SSI Mainframe: If you on-load a 5-WAR player at shortstop, you're going to have to configure, yeah. :- )
On the day that Jose Reyes held up a Mariners jersey -- ::laughs:: -- then 3B goes to Franklin (Liddi) and Kyle Seager becomes your 10th man. No doubts there.
Reyes plays second base, of course, so there's some question about whether you'd want to consider Dustin Ackley in CF, too. Any of you guys innerested in that? Assuming that Nick Franklin pulls a Fred Lynn and hits MOTO, we sez.
.
Q. So what happened to the need for... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
...................
Q. Yu Darvish? Why would the Mariners want to acquire a non-MLB starter when they already have eight* good MLB starters?
A. Why would they want to acquire Danny Hultzen when they did?
On June 6, 2011, the Seattle Mariners had every starting pitcher that they have now -- plus they had Doug Fister and Erik Bedard. ... sitting on all those pitchers, they still deployed the #2 overall pick to acquire a starting pitcher, that being Hultzen.
We fans tend to count our chickens not only before they hatch, but before the eggs are laid.
At the time Zduriencik drafted... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
...........
Q. How would Dr. D deploy such an embarrassment of pitching riches?
A. As Terry and we were discussing ... in the 1970's, the Dodgers developed 11 different All-Star starters in a period of 3-4 years. That worked out okay for them -- especially long-term.
You pitch your best five .... and you trade one now and then ... and you give a couple of others some bullpen time ... and you let one or two pitch in AAA a little longer. It works out, trust me.
If the M's added Darvish for 2012, I'd start with this assumption:
Felix
Darvish
Pineda
Paxton
Vargas
I'd have Hultzen... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
1 Comments
............
Q. Do Japanese pitchers disappoint? Does SSI concede any "lessons learned" from DiceK and Typhoon Irabu?
A. Well, at the outset Dr. D will cheerfully admit that he's not as dead-on certain about these transitions as he (and the Boston Red Sox) were before Matsuzaka arrived.
Still, for one thing, Darvish is bigger than DiceK, throws harder, and has performed much better. Darvish's career ERA is 2.12, compared to DiceK's Japanese ERA about a full run higher.
........
Secondly, I'm convinced that Matsuzaka's arm was fatigued when he got here. In Y3 here, he developed... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
..............
Q. Okay, what is the mainframe's read on Darvish? What does he throw?
A. You really put him in a David Cone category -- the bread and butter being a hot (not blazing) fastball and a tilted power slider. Then he's got at least three more pitches after that, as Cone did.
SLIDER. The first pitch on this video shows you the David Cone slider. At 2:33 you see the same pitch.
This is sort of the ultimate strikeout pitch righty-on-righty, even more so than a 97 mph fastball. There are some hitters, such as Adrian Beltre, on whom if you get two strikes? You're assured a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
16 Comments
.........
Q. How about intangibles? What is SSI's intuition on him?
A. Bill James, as a Royals fan, once complained about Earl Weaver's pitching staffs "being filled with guys who had 95 mph fastballs and absolutely refused to throw them to you."
Darvish seems to like to pitch backwards -- in Mike Mussina style, starting batters with breaking pitches and only then coming back with fastballs. But Darvish has the hot fastball that makes this effective at the Cy level. His 95 mph heater "establishes" the #1 in the batter's mind, no matter how many offspeed pitches they see.
Dr. D is... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
...............
Thirty years. Don't they go by in a blink. ::anthonyhopkins::
Thanks to csiems for the linkup to Bill James' 1982ff Baseball Analysts. We immediately started noodling around in issue 3.
.
=== The State of the Art, Dept. ===
In chess circles, there are ferocious debates about the strengths of the champions from 1858, from 1902, from 1927, from 1938, from 1972 and from today. These debates weave in and out against each other as if they were lattices.
Generally, weak chessplayers (50th percentile of tourney players) argue strenuously that Paul Morphy, genius champion... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
........
Either this .jpg is a representation of Jack Zduriencik's minor league system, or of Archimedes' electrical generator in reverse - Dr. D
.
=== Men Who Advanced Their Fields ===
Some of my favorite ancient scientific experiments...
.
Eureka. Archimedes was asked by a king to determine whether a crown was returned to him as 24K gold, or whether the smith had cheated him. Archimedes was not to melt down or harm the crown in any way. A puzzle that, in ancient times, not one Mensa member in a million could have solved.
Sitting in his bathtub, he realized that he could measure the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
While we're on the subject of fave experiments...
Circulatory theory. Before William Harvey in the 1600's, scientist believed that animal bodies had two blood/fluids, a blue and a red. (Well, what would you have thought? Animal bodies do indeed have many, many kinds of fluids in them.)
Harvey cut open a snake and -- nobody ever thought of this before -- applied a forceps to the vein entering the heart. The heart collapsed. He applied a forceps to the artery on the other side. The heart ballooned.
Harvey reasoned that the heart was a sort of motor, pushing fluid around and around in a... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
1 Comments
...................
Another fave milestone in "ancient" science being...
Newton's Prism. Before Newton, scientists believed that if you passed a beam of light through (say) orange-colored glass, then you "stained" a "pure" white light.
Newton secured a dark room and two prisms. He split the light with the first prism, and noted that after it went back through the second prism, it was white again. He concluded that white was the "mongrel," the mixed soup, as it were.
Then he hit the second prism with each color individually, and noted that from red to blue, each ray was bent more by the... Read More
Posted by jemanji on 11/03/11
..................
=== A-Ha "Take On Me" Dept. ===
There are a couple of different ways to present baseball "science," as it were.
The first way is to emphasize tone. The person publishing the article uses a format, a presentation structure, that reads as if the article were a "study" to be published in a peer-reviewed journal. He uses jargon that emphasizes the fact that he is speaking to fellow grad students, not to baseball fans in general. He use the most advanced math necessary to make the point.
Dr. D believes that there is a lot of good work being done in baseball. Don't get him... Read More