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=== 5., 6. Age and LH ===
Merry & Pippin "Filling In the Corners" Dept ....
Stating the obvious here, a comp for Ackley would have performed. He'd have been a college (minors) superduperstar.
He would have a 300/400/450 type profile -- we take it for granted that Ackley comps have a .300 AVG, plenty of walks, and gap power at least. A comp has to be lefthanded.
Preferably, not absolutely, he'd run well and be a good outfielder, or a middle infielder.
.
=== Suggestions? ===
I was hoping you'd help me out :- )
Terry suggested George Brett, which I hope is true. However, George did run 3+ EYE ratios, posted simply incredible BB/K ratios. He was Wade Boggs, swinging like Junior ... and keeping the Boggs EYE ratios while he did it. ... well, maybe.
I've had an inkling for Fred Lynn, who was a smallish man and who seems to go 6-for-6 on the SSI scale. He had a career OPS+ of 130, and several years of 160-170.
Fred got bigger as he got older, and whacked 39 homers. Terry has reminded me that Brett was skinny when he came up, too.
.......
Baseball Prospectus kicks out Asdrubal Cabrera as a top comp for Dustin Ackley. Not a bad comp. At age 23, A-Cab hit 300/370/440 and was a 3.5 WAR player. This last year, he busted out for 25 dongs. Ackley could too.
I'm not sure I'd give A-Cab credit for Edgar-level hitting skills or pitch recog, would you? If not, he's not a comp.
.........
Brian Giles and Paul O'Neill hit a lot of these tickmarks, including the delicate hitting skill intersected with extreme aggressiveness. But they were big, strong guys.
Roberto Alomar? ... heyyyyyyy .... maybe not as over-aggressive as Ackley, but he took a rip. Alomar was faster. Still, this comp might have legs.
We loop back around and come to the guy the scouts originally proposed, Chase Utley. Here is a smallish guy who has the aggressiveness dialed up to 11.
.........
What do you call this "family", if it is one? Little Edgars who dial their swings up to 11? Yeah, there will be a bunch of those in baseball history, won't there...
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=== 'Ave At Thee, Dept. ===
Jack Zduriencik talked about blending sabermetrics and field scouting. I dunno if it works better, but I know that it's more interesting.
:- )
To me, the fascinating thing about Dustin Ackley is precisely the over-aggressiveness out of a finesse talent package. The guy who reminds, right now, is Utely. And that guy, not Choo, suggests the .500 SLG in Ackley's UP scenario ...
Utley's own PECOTA comps: Abreu, Brett, Carew, Boggs ... also Justice, Drew, Beltran, Giles, Sheffield and Mays. Sounds funny, but I like Ackley's talent more than Utely's.
BABVA,
Dr D
Craig Biggio for an Ackley comp, a little smaller, played CATCHER, Second, and Center, walked more than he struck out (though I think Ackley will do both more), stole a healthy number of bases, and consistently ran ISOs in the .160s to 180s once he grew into himself at age 27
It’s a different game. You can’t really compare them….but I will anyway.
Gehringer was a beast. He struck out like Joe D (read: never) but walked more. He was one of the bigger on-base guys of his era (top-10 in OBP in 8 seasons). Not a large man, played 2B, hit lefty, and used to take the bat back to point it behind his head at the outfield wall before wrapping it around to make pure contact with great bat speed. He was a triples machine like Ackley (top-20 post-deadball era) and is STILL top-15 in HRs by a 2B despite playing pre WWII (top 10 excluding the Roid Era).
So if you were to give me:
- Wrap batting swing
- Played 2B
- Not a large man
- Lefty
- Fast
- Great pitch recognition and on-base potential
- Relied on bat-head speed for power
Then I’d give you Gehringer as one of the fathers of that family. Gehringer’s modern comps include Boggs, Jeter and Robbie Alomar, btw.
I’ve always liked the Utley comp if Ackley keeps consistent power (even though Ackley already has more triples in half a season than Utley has ever had in a full year). He’s GOT the power, it all depends on how he chooses to hit.
He could be later-career Wade Boggs if he wanted to be, IMO, but I think he’ll keep more power than that. I still see him as a .450 power guy, but if he can hit for power like Utley while taking extra bases like Gehringer and walking like Boggs? YEEESH…
We're not talking upside then, we're talking replacing Joe Morgan in the pantheon of second basemen, and we're so far from that right now...
Ackley is as talented at the plate as anyone I've seen in a while. Seeing how he harnesses that talent is gonna be a thrill and a half.
~G
Ackley = a LH Biggio - SB's?
Thing I like best about this comp, the 60 BB's, 90 K's (career) profile ... what is kind of odd is that Biggio hit .280 for his career. But I'll bet you that it is Ackley's LHness that will move that .280 to .300.
A LH Biggio, add 20 points of AVG, subtract the scads of SB's (so fewer runs scored), that comp resonates with me.
...............
The Drew and Biggio comps have my confidence up that Ackley can ISO .180... Drew wasn't real big, and he ISO'ed 220 or more. In 2004, the dude stayed healthy and put up 9 WAR.
I've always liked the Utley comp as well....
-Elite hit tool potential-Both are 6'1'' caucasians with similar weights at debut age-Both are 2B's who bat left and throw right-Slightly above average (20-ish) SB's with excellent running skills-Lots of doubles and similar HR power in the minors (Utley averaged 17 HR per 550 AB, Ackley slightly lower but with more aggressive track through minors)-High but not Edgarian BB rates, more K's than most 2B's-1st round draft picks out of big time college programs-Off the charts makeup for work ethic and aggressiveness-Last names ending with -ley :)
Not expecting Ackley to gain the same power jumps in his peak years, especially considering the Safeco factor and the offensive decline in AL. However, wouldn't be surprised to see him up the running game. A 1:1 3B:SB rate can only go on for so long before the team/player realizes their skillset is not being fully utilized.
Also can't help but see similarities between Ackley and what a healthy Darin Erstad could have been.
As y'know I don't watch much NL ... when Utley first came up, did he have 'skinny' arms and an unimpressive chest?
Ackley's pretty slight of build, an ectomorph, as it were.
I'd say that Ackley looks stronger than that already -
. . . .everybody goes bonkers. When I first comped Ackley to Brett, I thought it was a huge stretch. Little did I know people want to stretch in all kinds of fantastic directions. Leave the blog for a couple weeks and return to find Joe Morgan! Bob Watson! Charlie fricking Gehringer! Joe Dimaggio!
My Goodness. Kid must be pretty good. I agree that comparing anybody to Morgan's non-hitskills is crazy. The guy did everything off the charts (except announce). If he had quit baseball after he quit playing baseball, he'd be a SABR-god.
I think a huge amount of Ackley's obvious appeal is aesthetic. I know, I know, the data has been run out and it indicates greatness. But what persuades isn't the data here, it's the eye. The kid looks contemptuous at the plate. Is that all you've got? Really, that's it?
Put him where he belongs, CF, and we can start examining those Dimaggio comps a bit more closely.
I read and write for a living. I'm a lurker here most of the time, just enjoying the ride, and I gotta say I get more sheer happiness outa reading this site than I do most days out of reading anything else in the world. It's where I go when I'm stuck on a tricky bit of writing or just worn out. You guys are are great.There is massive intellectual horsepower being deployed here almost every day and I thank you all for it.
Take a bow, Doc.
that is one whale of a compliment.
Appreciate it, man.