Cool Groks, 4.22.17

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GROK 1

Bob Dutton reports that Leonydas' job is now fair game for outfielders who play good.  We doubt that the Denizens will storm the gates, either here or downtown, against this concept.

Remember it well, young man:  Stars & Scrubs allows you to swap out broken parts.  Of which the Mariners will find they were mistaken about a great. many. things.  As was Dr. D, but that's why he plays Stars & Scrubs too.

Other fungibles:  Danny Valencia at a 36 OPS, Ariel Miranda (more their idea than mine, judging by Rizzs' tone in the first inning), and most of the bullpen.  

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K-Pax' ERA Sails Above 0.00

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An NBA player once said he watched Larry Bird miss two foul shots to blow a game.  "It was like watching the sun rise in the East," he chortled later.  A's fans had much the same experience, watching the Orcs score 5 runs off James Paxton.  It was a perfect storm of:

(1) a slimy game plan by the orcs

(2) a day off from foshball command by K-Pax

(3) several other factors converging on the game at the same time

During the game, we thought the A's were "tipping their caps" on anything below 95, and taking "pepper" half-swings on any fastball down.  Almost right; the data the next day show that the Orcs were "tipping their caps" on anything below 95, and taking "pepper" half swings on anything exactly at the waist.  Here is the damning evidence.  

No hits off the curve, "no hits" meaning none.  No hits off the foshball, "no hits" meaning zero.  All hits but one were stinging little pepper-shots off centered fastballs those nassssssty Orcses were cheating on.

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Luis Roberts, Cuban CF

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Nathan axs,

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19-year-old Cuban OF Luis Robert has been cleared to sign with an MLB club on May 20th. What big market team that's not the Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Rays, Red Sox, or Royals could use a phenom center fielder? The teams listed are likely ineligible to sign him as they are limited to $300,000 or less during the current signing period.

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The blurbs around the 'net have the White Sox and Cardinals connected to Luis Robert.  This is apparently the kind of kid that they've been watching since he was 15, nay, even 12 years old.  An uber-Cespedes per the scouting reports.

Other teams listed as 'not having exceeded their bonus pool limit' for 2016-17 are the Padres, A's, Astros and Reds.  Might this conceivably be why we offloaded Paul Fry, to get the extra dinero needed to make a play?

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What's up (with Valencia), Doc?

Danny Valencia isn't very good right now.  I'm sure you've noticed.  Danny Boy isn't, by the way, in some run-of-the-mill bad stretch. He's in the worst bad stretch he's had in more than three seasons.

Going back to the beginning os the '14 season, Valencia's monthly OPS numbers have looked like this:  2014: .786-.616-.923-.775-.744-.528    2015:  1.021-.652-.1.080-.766-.917-.861   2016:  .698-.1.078-.863-.634-.725-.716

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M's Climb Out of Cellar. To 2nd Place.

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If you can't get enough shtick after a Mariners victory, and who can?!, check out last night's Shout Box and Dr. D's Twitter account.  Better stuff there than here, since Wishhiker, KingCorran and Rick were editing me for accuracy.  Oh, and commenting the game themselves, but who cares about that.

The M's are now +59 runs -58, which is not bad for the worst 2 weeks of your season.  That's better than the Rangers usually do when they win the division.  But you would know that if you were on Twitter with us.

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MIRANDA RIGHTS (to the #5 SP role) DEPT.

We tweeted during the 1st that Miranda was looking like he had a lockdown going.  He radiated ownership of the game from the first hitter, through Stanton and Bat571's boy Ozuna, and navigated the 6th inning well.  Diderot, also in the mezzanine, seconded our emotion on Miranda's vibe.

Bill James has emphasized that --- > when it comes to fringe starters, you are better off "seeing if you can build on" the 30-start guy than just swapping every time somebody makes 4 starts without impressing.  That's true even if the ERA's are 4.95 for the 40-start guy and the 4-start guy.  Dr. D believes this is 100% accurate as a generalization, and it is also the right way to live life.  Not to make a value judgment or anything.  Better is the end of a thing than the beginning thereof.  

Have the Mariners proven (to their own satisfaction) that Ariel Miranda cannot pitch?  Of course not.  So on that basis he is at the head of the Overton/Povse/etc line.

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Hisashi Iwakuma to the Bullpen?

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You wonder if the M's would think about Taro's idea about 'Kuma in the pen.  Bear in mind that Taro knows NPB starters/relievers like you know interior line play in the NFL.  Well, maybe that's a bad example... like Geoff Baker knows the blue lines in hockey? ... no ... suffice it to say that I'd listen to Taro's opinion on Hisashi Iwakuma before I'd listen to my own.

Nippon pitching isn't about genetics.  It's about a way of approaching the game, a way of preparing.  There is no racial element to comparing one Cuban to another, or one Nippon player to another.  They are isolated environments with distinctive ideas about the game.

In medicine they have a general diagnosis along the lines of "chronic wear and tear."  Dr. D has this in places himself.  It doesn't mean that something's going to rip in half, necessarily; it can just mean you're going to be weaker.  Jered Weaver's wear and tear just kept reducing his speed, and then it began to eat at his command.  Come to think of it, this winds up happening to, um, everybody.

The M's themselves looked at the wear in tear on the imaging and said, "Okay, we'll pay for 200, 300 innings.  Pay for 500 innings' worth of elite performance?  Not even if it costs us our 116 banner."

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Miranda vs Some NL Pitcher

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Here is the official NL-AL game preview.  Remarkably, it is completely info-free.  It does have a mugshot of the NL perp.  The M's do well in interleague games, presumably because the M's are not facing other AL players who have their chess openings booked and refuted.

One guy has faced one of the pitchers; "our" Carlos Ruiz has been mulched by this Tom Koehler guy.  So we're guessing Ruiz won't be playing back-to-backs from the bench.  Hey!  By the way do we have any Denizen (besides TJM who since the election sees Dr D as Inspector Dreyfus did Clouseau, and appropriately enough) who knows the National League.  Like can you tell me something about Koehler.  Like Clouseau, Dr. D takes great pride in never having seen most NL'ers play a single pitch, even on highlights anywhere.

Sabe-ly, we notice that Koehler's CTL has under 7 strikeouts and almost 4 walks, this with a pitcher facing him, so we presume he wouldn't fare well in the American League.  His arsenal is healthy:

  • Slightly plus fastball velo
  • 2.5 usable breaking pitches:  Slider, a curve (also 20% plus in previous years) and mixes a change
  • Therefore his command must be iffy, or he'd be very good

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Sound the Alarm on Hisashi

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IF THE SEASON STARTED 7 DAYS AGO

We would have OPS's over 1000 from DH, RF, LF, and SS.  3B would be at 895.  Only 1B and C would have started slow, really, and we'd have scored 5-9 runs in 6 games with Felix' 2-1 win being the other game.

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WBC-San

Iwakuma's velocity had already been down his first two starts.  As a GENERAL RULE that means a robust gain to the ol' ERA number.  General rules are not absolutes and if anybody can pitch with a minus-minus fastball it's this guy.

So when he started off Sunday throwing 84, 85 MPH I'm thinking, "let's hope he's in the 10%."  Very shortly thereafter the Rangers started gleefully playing pop-a-shot with the RF bleachers.  And Dr. D returned to his senses, that MLB hitters punish weak pitches rather differently than NPB hitters punish them.

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23 Swings and Misses

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REACTION SHOTS

The real drama in a great movie often comes from bit characters WATCHING the hero.  Linda Hamilton crawling away from the Terminator in horror, as she realizes what she's up against, while that Kyle Reese guy desperately screams at her to get up, that conveyed Arnie's force more than Arnie could have.  

Denizens' reaction shots to Zeus are unlike Sarah's and Kyle's.  But let us go savor some other sites' reaction to three shutouts to open the season ...

Doug Miller's postgame has a kewl first paragraph ... Bob Dutton's postgame studiously avoids reaction to that which demands reaction ...  Ryan Divish gets right to the point ... Here is LL's game thread.

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FAVE MOMENTS

15 swings and misses ... on fastballs alone!  Bill James once said, with a lot of truth, "major league hitters don't swing and miss at fastballs.  They miss breaking pitches."  

The knuckle curve threatens to become Unit-reliable; he threw 17-for-23 strikes and seemed able to bounce them or get them called.  This means the foshball is the 3rd weapon, and it was 3rd-weapon quality Saturday, but that's okay.

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