Here is the official NL-AL game preview. Remarkably, it is completely info-free. It does have a mugshot of the NL perp. The M's do well in interleague games, presumably because the M's are not facing other AL players who have their chess openings booked and refuted.
One guy has faced one of the pitchers; "our" Carlos Ruiz has been mulched by this Tom Koehler guy. So we're guessing Ruiz won't be playing back-to-backs from the bench. Hey! By the way do we have any Denizen (besides TJM who since the election sees Dr D as Inspector Dreyfus did Clouseau, and appropriately enough) who knows the National League. Like can you tell me something about Koehler. Like Clouseau, Dr. D takes great pride in never having seen most NL'ers play a single pitch, even on highlights anywhere.
Sabe-ly, we notice that Koehler's CTL has under 7 strikeouts and almost 4 walks, this with a pitcher facing him, so we presume he wouldn't fare well in the American League. His arsenal is healthy:
- Slightly plus fastball velo
- 2.5 usable breaking pitches: Slider, a curve (also 20% plus in previous years) and mixes a change
- Therefore his command must be iffy, or he'd be very good
K-PAX' 1.11 ERA
Interesting little debate as to how low Zeus' ERA could go in theory. First thing: Let's assume that Paxton throws the ball this well in 28 of 30 starts. Even Dr. D dares not dream this. But let's say he did, as Unit used to do and as Kershaw-Sale do nowadays. (If Zeus gets KO'ed in even three starts all year, forget the 1+ ERA fantasies. If he has 5 bad starts out of 32, forget the 2+ ERA fantasies.)
But! If he rains lightning on the villagers start after start, all summer long ... his outcomes are based on his 22:4:0 slash line with flyballs, and are are probably framed HI and LO by his current
(1) FIP = 1.41
(2) xFIP = 2.93
The "expected" Fielding Independent Pitching assumes that he gives up 11% homers on his current fly ball rate. The "real" FIP just takes his actual homer rate, which is zero. (Is that a number Matty?) Either number deletes the BABIP debates we've been having. But neither number takes into consideration Jarrod Dyson playing two positions at once.
It is ridiculous to assume that Paxton would truly yield (the league-average) 11% homers on flies if he pitched like this. It's even more ridiculous to assume that he goes the year with no homers, as you might have surmised. But Pax would earn a 8%, 9% homer rate this year in Safeco. And he might easily luck into a 5% rate.
From a saber standpoint Paxton could easily earn a 2.50'ish, 2.75'ish ERA, as Chris Sale would definitely post for us, and could have an outlier ERA like Sale's 2.12 a few years ago. (Sale is the one AL pitcher who comes to mind who is even better than Paxton is right now.) Beyond that, sure, freakish things happen in baseball. Just my $0.02.
Wishiker points out +12 -1 stolen bases for Dyson, Haniger, Leonydas and Segura. Yesterday's Dyson attempt was the ballgame. Now that the offense is clicking, what do you think it will look like with Jean Segura back in it? And where does Motter play most frequently?
Another lockdown start and he's now 1 ER in 19 innings. Jerry Dipoto has very little problem with a AA-MLB pole vault. In only slightly related topics: could Iwakuma relieve as Taro supposes? Koji Uehara had a great year in 2015 with an 87 MPH fastball. He had a 2.23 ERA despite 86.7 MPH and a comical 27% ground ball rate -- in Fenway.
SEE A BALLGAME ONCE IN A WHILE, YA GEEK
They're on a 3-game winning streak, their offense is cooking, it's Ichiro and Stanton, and tix are half off. Surprise yer wife with a ballgame once in a while.