Seattle Sports Insider

Yu Darvish vs He Who Must Change the Eye Level

INJURY BUGS CREEPY-CRAWL THE SIDES OF MT. OLYMPUS

Jerry Dipoto assures us that it's nothing more than some irritation in the forearm. IFF that's true then (for me) it's the most benign injury a pitcher can have from his weapon shoulder down, including blisters and torn fingernails.

You might remember Felix' forearm strain as a rookie (?) right after he tore the Red Sox limb from limb in Fenway. He was snapping in a little too much finger pressure. Our resident "fizz" G-Money will probably confirm that tippy-end fingertips are connected to the forearm cords.

We fancy that Paxton's new motion on the yakker -- holding his fingers back in an "artificial" karate chop movement -- might be the proximate cause. If so, then like Felix all those years ago, it's nothing more than a less-exaggerated finish to the pitch.

Or not. In any case at least it's not an 8-weeks-plus oblique pull like Cole Hamels'.

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M's 11, pesky rodent Angels 3

ON ARIEL MIRANDA

That was without a doubt the best game I've seen him throw, and the most encouraging. He seemed to take about -1 MPH off the fastball, at the gain of locating it in critical moments. Here are his first 2 strikeouts in the 7th, this previously being his 3rd-trip bugaboo:

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Miranda vs Meyer, sans Mike Trout

If the M's could take the 2nd Angel game, they're 13-16 and then would need only a split leading up to the Paxton win. A record of 15-17 would beat a lot of records, say, 2-8. Here is the matchup: Mike Trout is being rested, which against a journeyman wild LHP feels like at least a run or two.

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The Mariners' sparkling outfield defense was the difference in Wednesday's game. The stolen home run by Guillermo Heredia is being sold as "the catch of the year," and that meant the M's OF defense changed a loss to a win. But he's made quite a few nifty snags in left.

Fangraphs has Heredia at +1.8 runs and +0.4 WAR in sixteen games. Let's see, times ten ... :: counts on fingers :: has him on pace for +18 runs saved and 4.0 WAR in mostly left field. That's a reasonably solid contribution from a role player. Also, he's hitting .286 with solid walks, solid power and ... the legs haven't shown up yet, are actually a minus to his WAR, but we know where those are at.

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Love at 425 .. er, Wins at 82 ... er ..

There has never been a Seattle Mariner pitcher who threw 82 MPH and was anything other than a bad punch line. In fact there has only ever been maybe 1-2 American League pitchers who ever (since 2002) did it. So SSI figgered it can't be done.

Iwakuma's last two starts did a whale of a lot to convince us otherwise. This is two games in a row in which he locked down the enemy at 81, 82 MPH. In fact his game logs:

Notice the 0's, 1's, 2's, and 3's in the Earned Runs column. Every time but once. And he's doing this with a most strange toolbox:

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Precedents: Help a Brotha Out Here

Watching Hisashi Iwakuma spin these maddening little Mini Quality Starts (5.1 IP, 2 ER) the last several times out, the obvious question was --- > IS THAT SUSTAINABLE? Has anybody ever DONE this?

OK, here are the career leaderboards for slowest fastballs. Well, since 2002, when they started keeping track of slow fastballs. Sort the table by Pitch Type, then by FBv (fastball velocity), upside down. It gives you all the guys who threw super slow.

Actually it turns out there WERE guys who threw 85 MPH or slower. And for quite a while. Remember, we want RIGHT hand pitchers, and preferably AL pitchers. Names that jump out: John Burkett for the Red Sox (well, sure), Greg Maddux at 84.7 MPH (for ten years? Really?), Hideo Nomo and Kevin Appier grovelled a lot at the end of their careers ... these are all ex-stars whose reputations bought them a couple extra years after they were at Moyeresque velocity ranges.

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11-and-16

Dr. D saw the first 4-5 innings from the upper deck, and then left the ballpark with James Paxton still in the game and tied. That tells you all you need to know about the utility of this morning's post. It also tells you all you need to know about the Mariners' will to win, seeing as we could grok this ugly loss coming from three or four AU's away.

Honestly, that is what lousy pitching will do for you. The position players start making lots of sloppy errors, thinking about the 3-run homers they need in order to give themselves a chance. I'd be glad to blame Scott Servais -- if he had anything to do with most of his starting pitchers running 2+ gopher ratios. Dipoto better get this 83 ERA+ figured out and quick. I dunno, why did 83 ERA's never happen to Pat Gillick?

We kid. One thing you love, is that Jerry Dipoto feels the loss more than we do. If something can humanly be done he'll do it.

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Tuesday Paxton vs Shoemaker Thread

The M's have played well at home. If they go 2-2 in the non-Paxton games that will leave them where ... 15-and-17? Going to be at the game tonight, so no live blogging. Rather, Twittering. Tweeting? in any case, @jeff_clarke or search Dr Detecto. Like Matthew McC in Two for the Money, usually by Thursday we can give you the winners on Sunday. Or by the 2nd inning we can triangulate the outcome of the homestand. Worked out just as well for Matthew McC as it usually does for us.

Philosophical Birdwalk: you know in --- > golf tournaments, or in tennis matches, or in boxing, there doesn't need to be a pennant context. Tonight's war is epic enough in a vacuum. What if it were a barnstorming matchup?

Or not.

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Checked out the Rainiers last night at Tacoma. Rob Whalen is a guy who throws three different slowballs with intriguing (unconventional) movement. He's got three breaking pitches. I guess he goes in the "can't-miss" category along with Yovanni Gallardo.

Also, Ryan Harper has some big-league arm action on his super change or slow curve or whatever that 75 MPH pitch is. Anybody know anything about Harper?

The Rainiers scored a big comeback on the strength of Tyler Smith and Mike Freeman, though they later botched the comeback. Moe Dawg has always been partial to a roster that features at least a couple of middle infielders, which was even more necesssary in April. Although the Mariners are (mercifully) now running a 4-man bench.

I guess I could use a little persuasion on Tyler Smith. Haven't considered him much and it's not obvious to me at a glance. Bring it on amigos.

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Korner: Science vs Expertise

The most recent Hey Bill:

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Paxton vs Shoemaker Tuesday

WELL, WHAT DID YOU EXPECT

In James Paxton's career, Mike Trout is 2-for-20 with 10 strikeouts. That's about to get worse, much worse. But for the time being let's savor August 8, 2015. Also Pujols is 4-for-20, quickly to become 4-for-24. There's nothing to restore morale like taking D*CON to the pesky rodent Angels. I'll be there.

IT'S 26 OF 162

Last May 1, the Cleveland Indians were 10-12. The Astros were 8-17. May 1 of the previous year, the Blue Jays were in 5th place in the AL East; they went 93-69 to win it by six. The Rangers were 7-15 that year on May 1 before going 88-74 to win the division. The M's 11-15 record doesn't mean much except that they need to get their blinkin' pitching staff together behind Paxton and Sugar.

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Gallardo vs Salazar

GAME THREAD

In case a coupla you mooks want to mosh each other off the TV screen.

BPJ SEZ

Hopefully Boogs' arrival means the end of the Dyson fulltime experiment. Heredia's .800+ OPS makes Dyson's extra bit of defense so unimpressive.

His most valuable role to the team would be pinch runner late in close games, then defensive sub. Getting to pick and choose the spots where you need a stolen base is exactly how I'd use my 25th roster spot (which is where Dyson fits in, imo).

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