.

If the M's could take the 2nd Angel game, they're 13-16 and then would need only a split leading up to the Paxton win.  A record of 15-17 would beat a lot of records, say, 2-8.  Here is the matchup:  Mike Trout is being rested, which against a journeyman wild LHP feels like at least a run or two.

...

The Mariners' sparkling outfield defense was the difference in Wednesday's game.  The stolen home run by Guillermo Heredia is being sold as "the catch of the year," and that meant the M's OF defense changed a loss to a win.  But he's made quite a few nifty snags in left.

Fangraphs has Heredia at +1.8 runs and +0.4 WAR in sixteen games.  Let's see, times ten ... :: counts on fingers :: has him on pace for +18 runs saved and 4.0 WAR in mostly left field.  That's a reasonably solid contribution from a role player.  Also, he's hitting .286 with solid walks, solid power and ... the legs haven't shown up yet, are actually a minus to his WAR, but we know where those are at.

...

Ben Gamel's body language ... it's beyond "comfortable."  It's beyond "loose."  When he steps into the box, or even when he's got two strikes on him, he vibes like --- > a restaurant manager surveying the floor with absolutely everything going right, customers ordering desserts, bussies taking fresh bar towels to everything.  I just totally dig his vibe.

Also he's got a 139 OPS+ based on a strange knack for zinging line-drive doubles into soft areas of the outfield.  He hit a 3-iron that ticked off Mike Trout's glove deep ... Trout was disoriented by the sizzle on the ball.  Gamel will one-arm a ball down the line short, and then scramble into 2B before the fielder gets there.  I've got my eye on these "soft doubles" for Ben Gamel.

He has fanned a fair bit, in his first week-plus, but all the component stats are great.  Very low fish rate.  Low whiff rate.  Just a real low swing rate.  Like Mitch Haniger, like John Olerud, he seems okay with called strikes.  Another very cool attribute.

In an ideal world, Guillermo Heredia and Ben Gamel would BOTH be role players for us, and what role players they might turn out to be.

...

Emilio Pagan got lit up on Wednesday night.  He was throwing a 92-94 fastball with excellent life but -- I thought at a glance -- a very "seeable" arc without the right movement.  He's supposed to have nice arm action on a -10 MPH slider and he flashed that too.

Ah, well, every young pitcher gets lit up.  The good ones don't let it get to them.

...

Greg Johns makes an argument that Danny Valencia will slug .484 from here to the wire.  Well, kinda.  It's cool that he turned out to be a quality defensive first baseman.  Check Johns' argument.

...

Ariel Miranda is a perfectly reasonable #6 starting pitcher.  He's got his K's over 8, his walks in the 2's, and his ERA at 3.81.  But his 89% strand rate is the highest I ever remember seeing ...

MORE, not less, it is turning out that Miranda's starts pivot with those three warning-track balls.  10 feet short or 10 feet long.  Well, they've got the three center fielders out there again.

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Cheers,

Dr D